It's strange how I've changed. Growing up as a Wests fan in Redfern (so also a soft spot for the Rabbitoh's) I despised St George, Canterbury and of course Manly! These days 3 of my favourite players are with Manly (Stewart brothers and Choc) so it's very hard to hate them. There is no reason why I shouldn't still hate the 'doggies, and yet I find that I can't miss a single 'doggies game and just love the way they play their football (plus I also love the Morris brothers, especially J). I still do despise the Dragons and of course my boy Dugan had to go there, of all the clubs.
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I still can't stand the Roosters and the last 10 years has only made it worse, with their continual poaching of our players and the fact that the year we got done for rorting the cap, they were rorting it too but got away with it.
I also despise Willie Mason and any team he plays for - absolute imbecile - he single handedly phucked our club over, not only when he left, but for years after.Comment -
The weekend didn't start off well with the Sharks blowing a 13 point lead with 5 minutes to go to win by 1 and blow the cover.
The other games went as expected, so we finished up 2-1 for a slight profit.
Another reduced schedule of games this week due to Origin, but then it's all systems go until the end of the season.
Hopefully the Blues can jag the win tomorrow and end 7 years of torment.
Round 18 Total: 2-1 [+0.87 UNITS]
Season Total: 27-1-19 [+9.31 UNITS]Comment -
ROUND 19 PLAYS
Bet # 49 - Warriors -2 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1.5 UNITS
Bet # 50 - Raiders -17.5 @ $1.90 (Bet 365) - 1.5 UNITS
Bet # 51 - Sea Eagles -14 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITSComment -
Tigers v Warriors
The whole Benji Marshall episode has come to a head with him requesting a release from the final 2 years of his contract.
The Tigers are out of finals contention in my opinion, they were very ordinary last start against a weakened Sharks team and have nothing to play for.
Marshall is pissed off about the board reneging on a verbal contract agreement with previous management.
They are still struggling with injuries and Farah will be struggling to back up after a draining Origin game, especially after losing a close game.
The Warriors on the other hand are on the fringe of the top 8 and really need to win this to stay in touch.
They were excellent for 60 minutes last start against the Rabbits in Perth and have gun centre Konrad Hurrell in blockbusting form.
The Tigers are undefeated in 3 games at Leichhardt so far this season.
The Warriors have been average away from home, winning only twice from 10 games.
This will be Benji's last game at Leichhardt Oval - but it didn't help the Tigers win when Wayne Pearce and Steve Roach retired.
Was eyeing this a 2-3 unit play, but with all the dramas, I am not sure how the Tigers will react.
Playing Warriors -2 for 1.5 units, just in case the Tigers grow another leg.
Raiders v Eels
Had this play in mind as soon as the Eels covered the spread last week against the Panthers.
They are really shot, with nothing to play for.
The Eels have been awful away from home this season, losing by 18 or more points in 7 out of 10 games.
The Raiders have the best home ground advantage and the Eels are the worst away team in the comp.
The line is sharp, but I like the situational angle here.
The Raiders really need to win and win well as they have the worst points differential of all teams above them.
A let down game for the Eels here after a solid performance last week.
The Raiders should win the game comfortably.
Again, I was going to play this for more, but the Raiders seem to play their worst football when everyone is on them.
Also, there is no edge in the line - if it was around 14, it would be a 2-3 unit play.
Playing Raiders -17.5 for 1.5 units.
Manly v Titans
The Sea Eagles are hitting some decent form, no coincidence that the Stewart brothers are back from injury.
The Titans outside backs are either out of form or rookies.
I can't believe how bad David Mead and Kevin Gordon have been playing.
Their pack is still decent, but their two Origin reps won't be backing up.
Manly are fresh and off a solid away win in Townsville.
Apart from Watmough and DCE, they have no other players backing up.
Taufua is on fire at the moment and I expect him to terrorise his opposite number.
Manly will match the Titans in the forwards which will let their experienced backline put up a decent score.
Playing Sea Eagles -14 for 2 units.
Good luck to everyone.Comment -
I'll let you know if I see any money when I withdraw.
Contemplating another play.
I liked the Sharks, but there was no edge in the line.
Now I hear Sonny Bill is out of tomorrow's game.
Most books have the line down to 10.5.
If I can find 12 or 13, I am tempted to play it.Comment -
Passing on the Sharkies.
I expect a close game, but they have lost heaps of players for this match, with Graham, Robson, Lewis and Tupou joining Gallen and Ryan on the sidelines.
Stuart Mills in the centres is a massive liability too.Comment -
Well, what a roller-coaster ride.
The Warriors came out flat and were down by 8 at HT.
They woke up in the second and put the Tigers to sleep as expected, but the finish was closer than I expected.
The Raiders played in atrocious conditions, but they still had ample opportunities to put points on the hapless Eels.
Parramatta have actually put up some solid defensive games back to back after getting pounded by the Sea Eagles a few weeks ago.
I expect this to change this coming Friday when they take on the Bulldogs.
The Eels were on the wrong side of some dubious calls from the video referee, especially their first "no-try".
Missed the last 15 minutes of the game and didn't see the potential "penalty try" incident or the Campese effort at the death that could have landed the cover.
As stated in the write-up, the Raiders are the most unreliable team when expected to win easily.
As for today's game, what more needs to be said.
Jamie Lyon missed a shitload of conversions and it looked like that it was going to cost us at least a push on our bet.
His woeful kicking cost us a cover some weeks back when he missed all 4 of his conversions against the Raiders to get done by the hook.
The Titans also had a man sent to the sin bin for a professional foul and Manly could still not capitalise on the numerical advantage.
The Titans then scored tries to bring the game to 28-20 with 5 minutes to go and I thought our play of the round was dead in the water.
Manly then scored 2 tries at the death to firstly get us a push, then win us the bet outright.
Heart in the mouth stuff truly.Comment -
The story so far
UNITS RISKED: 61.5
WINNING PERCENTAGE: 59%
YIELD: 18%Comment -
Solid work TGM. No luck with the Raiders games unfortunately - three genuine chances late on that could of sealed the cover. I had thought about jumping on the Sharks +12.5 earlier in the week but also missed out - decided to take the Roosters -10 at the last minute, a lot of teams can't match their physicality, simply ran over a depleted Sharks side.
Good luck next week.Comment -
TGM - sorry mate I didn't get your pm in time about meeting up at game III. Did you end up going? I was in a foul mood anyway, my mate had to pull me away from a bunch of potential punch-up's after the game.Comment -
Nah mate and lucky really.
I would have joined in the festivities with you against those filthy canetoad supporters.
As I keep telling everyone, the ONLY good thing to come out of it is that Mitchell Pearce joins Kurt Gidley as players never to play Origin again.
I know NSW selectors are brain-dead, but phuck me surely they now realize what the rest of knew 5 years ago - Pearce is RUBBISH.Comment -
I wouldn't bet on it, Roosters win the comp and get off to a good start in 2014 and he'll be getting another chance. The apologists have already come out in full suggesting that beating an injury plagued Cronulla side is evidence that he shouldn't be discarded from SOO
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The future of NSW origin success rests with three players. 1. Adam Reynolds 2. Jorge Tafua 3. Will HopoateComment -
Thanks mate, let's hope the trend continues.
Those apologists are closet Maroon supporters.
I'd rather take a 1-legged Brett Kimmorley than Pearce again.Comment -
Round 20 - Early leans
Cowboys -4.5
Dragons +2.5
Storm -1.5
Tigers +13.5Comment -
Mate i gave up on NSW selectors many many years ago when they dropped Eric Grothe Snr for Ross Conlon ( goalkicking tigers winger) NSW have always got it wrong, Maybe it is politics within the NSW heirachy or maybe they have no idea, Each year when Gidley is chosen i am sure the Queensland team is laughing and calling him their no 18. Gidley will be in the team next year, as will Pearce , it should be time to give Reynolds a go since next year two game sin QLD almost certainly will see them stretch it to 9. The real battle will be in 2015 to see if they can make it 10Comment -
Interesting information I was forwarded today.
As most are aware, there is strong talk that Ben Barba is on his way out of Belmore at the end of the season, with the Broncos his likely destination.
The Dogs have been rumoured to be in the market for Israel Folau, but that may not happen now as he has settled in well at the Waratahs.
If Barba does go, I have been told that the Bulldogs will go hard after Josh Dugan - came as a big surprise to me as I thought the Dragons had tied him up for a few years. Interesting in that they were looking at signing him a few years ago before he resigned with the Raiders and just before Barba had his breakout year.
Can anyone shed some light on Dugan's contract situation at the Dragons?Comment -
Comment -
ROUND 20 PLAYS
Bet # 52 - Cowboys -6 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT
More to follow.......
The -4.5 is long gone now, playing for 1 unit instead of 2 with the worse line, however I am expecting the Cows to do the business at home as it is definitely season over for whoever loses. The Cowboys should win and win well.Comment -
TGM what are you playing this w/e?Comment -
Bad start to the weekend, with the Cowboys getting unstuck last night, playing at home with their season on the line and with their opposition in sixes and sevens. Based on what happened, i'd be surprised if Neil Henry lasts until the end of the season. If he does, he certainly won't be there in 2014. What a huge disappointment for their fans after many tipped them to make the GF this year, especially with their roster.
Anyhow, moving onto the next games of the weekend.
I am going to pass the Dragons/Raiders game.
Too many conflicting angles as a case can be made to bet either side.
From a Power Rating perspective, the game is a pick, so with the Dragons catching points at home, they'd be a bet.
Throw in a few ex-Raiders players in their ranks and you have a pretty fired up team with these guys looking to get one over their old team.
However, as most are aware, the Dragons have a horrible record against the Raiders and have only won once in the last 14 meetings.
On the flip side, the Raiders have been bad away from home this season, going 1 from 9 (beating would you believe it, the Storm).
But, the Dragons have not been that good at home either, winning only 2 of 7 when playing at either WIN stadium.
St George are also off a short turn around and this is a classic let-down game after beating the top team last start.
Flip of a coin for mine, so passing.
Turning to the Warriors/Storm game, I like the Storm here but who knows which Warriors team will turn up?
If the Storm can get up here, they will look to follow last year's pattern of starting well, slumping during Origin, then building up to the finals.
The Warriors will be smarting after their loss to the Storm earlier in the year where they were in the game for most of it only for the Storm to pull away at the death.
Konrad Hurrell is an awesome attacking weapon, but his defence is terrible, which the Tigers exploited last week to good effect in the first half.
The Warriors are 5 from 6 at Mt Smart this year, with their only loss coming against the Rabbitohs by a measly 2 points.
The Storm have lost their last 3 away from home, but I wouldn't read too much into that as it was during the Origin period.
Apart from their round 2 blowout against the Cowboys in Townsville, they have been just doing enough to beat the opposition.
This game is a classic UNDERS play for mine.
For value, look at taking the "either team under 6.5" option or pick a side and take the 1-12.
No blowout win here.
Passing this one as again, there is no clear edge to bet either side.
I originally passed over the Sharks/Panthers game as the line looked sharp, but having moved out from 4 to 6-6.5, the Panthers look attractive.
They have been the surprise packet of the season, but it remains to be seen if they can continue their charge at the business end of the season.
Last week's capitulation to the Knights at home was concerning, because at this stage of the season, you shouldn't be getting blown away at home from a mid-range team.
The Sharks were also belted last start by the red-hot Roosters.
Yes they were missing a raft of personnel, but the Chooks had plenty of players backing up from Origin and were also missing SBW.
I am not sure how the Sharks will react to the loss.
A few ex-Panthers in the Sharkies team lining up against their former club for the first time.
The Sharkies also welcome back some key players, although Gallen is still out.
Robson and Graham are key ins for them, although I am not sure if Luke Lewis will play.
This clash is notoriously close-fought, with 3 of the last nine games going to golden point.
Two more were decided by 4 or less points.
The Sharks have been great at home this season, while the Panthers have been just average away.
With both teams' top 8 aspirations on the line, I am expecting another close game.
Really liking the Panthers +6, but something is holding me back from hitting it at this stage.
I'll keep you posted if I decide to play it.
The final game of the round sees the Tigers host the Sea Eagles on MNF.
Lots of motivational angles or the Tigers.
Robbie Farah plays game 200 for the club.
Liam Fulton plays game 150.
The club's last "proper" home game as their last 2 supposed home games are being played at the SFS, meaning it is Benji's last home game at the Wests Magpies home ground.
Interesting to note that Manly have not played at Campbelltown for 15 years.
The line is just about right, but I am leaning to the Tigers because of the above reasons.
Manly are also playing the Eels next week and Matai and co have been talking up the return clash and the "square-up" with Eels prop Mitchell Allgood.
Might be a case of looking ahead for the Sea Eagles.
Looking at both teams though, it is hard to see where the Tigers will get their points from, while the Eagles have plenty of options in attack.
Can the Tigers score enough points to keep it close?
The whole Marshall saga is now done and dusted, so that eases some pressure off the Tigers and they can just go out and play their game.
If Benji and Farah are the best of mates as they say they are, Marshall will want to at least put in a big effort for him in his milestone game.
Leaning to Tigers +13.5 for 1 Unit at this stage, but still not convinced.
Good luck to whatever you guys play.Comment -
lol! 4 absolutely epic write ups for a total of....... zero plays, the sign of a true pro! love it
BOL if you do decide to play something this weekend TGMComment -
Trust the gut - would have gone 0 from 3 so far.
I'm really liking the Tigers more and more.
MNF
Benji
Milestone games
Look-ahead for Manly
Bet # 53 - Tigers +13.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT
Anyone going to take Rohan's advice and play the $5.15 underdog at the ML?Comment -
no woods a huge loss, manly are probably on another level atm and have been demolishing bottom 8 sides i reckon tigers line is very very risky, dont take the underdog ML it would take a miracle such as half of manly getting injured for tigers to win this.Comment -
I like the Tigers with the start, AT cambelltown it is a generous quote and the factors you have indicated are all very valid, I also think it willbe Farrah leading the charge as he has copped some criticism for his game in the SOO. Manly are a serious team and with Storm faltering they will want to consolidate third place. These two teams have played their last four games at Bluetounge so the Tigers will enjoy home ground for a change, They won an epic clash at allianz in 2010 , I believe Manly were winning 18-0 at one point off hand.
I have been backing dogs over 3.50 for a year or so now since rohan alerted me to it and its profitability. A half unit stake returns a good dividend at season end, especially when 7.00 Dragons got up last week. Its not for everyone as it is a grind and you don't get a lot of winners but when you win the reward is more than justified, although i cant really see Manly losing it , they will have a slip up game soon and this could be it , as we all know the numbers dont lie. Excellent work TGM , a lot of factors pointing to a big effort by the Tigers, and if by chance Benji goes off even a win, but his last game at Campbelltown will see him do something.Comment -
Thoughts.
Lordkai - Your subjective analysis and knowledge of the game is very good as you've demonstrated in your thread. In saying that, I have to (constructively) criticize your choice of words in your above post.
"Tigers ML is very risky". This is completely meaningless to a sports investor focused on the long term.
A much better way to say it is say "Tigers ML is a very high variance bet".
That is true, and its the nature of the game. Does it mean its a bad bet? No. In fact historically speaking, its a very, very good bet.
Does it mean you may have to wait several seasons for the variance (i.e luck) to even out and for you to show a profit? Yes.
"It would take a miracle such as half of manly getting injured for Tigers to win this". Well, I don't agree with that. I'll say it will take one or more of several slightly-unlikely possible scenarios for Tigers to win. Sure, a bunch of Manly players getting injured could be it, but lets take it one step further - how about a couple of 50/50 calls go the Tigers way? How about the Tigers just play super well and Manly have an off day? How about the crowd really gets behind Benji and he really puts in, in turn lifting the rest of the team? How about some of the players look at the scoreboard and see they're up 10-0, and they start thinking, "Shit, we can win this"? How about a couple of lucky bounces go Tigers way? How about any combination of the above scenarios?
Ill repeat what I said in Sandos' thread the other day. Rugby League is a game of 13 (not very bright) humans running at each other with a funny shaped ball bouncing around. The amount of luck in rugby league is unfathomable.
Betting on large underdogs is character building to say the least, and Angelo is spot on when he said its not for everyone. It takes impeccable bankroll, and mental management to be able to stomach putting on sizeable bets on teams that "logic" says have almost no chance of winning. You need to put all gut feelings aside, put all your natural biases aside, and realize that despite the fact these bets are *extremely* counter-intuitive, they are profitable in the long term.
Angelo - I'm very glad to hear that you've been sticking to the model, I hope it has been profitable for you! If it hasn't yet, I'm sure it will be in the future! The beauty of backing big underdogs is that you only need a handful of winners per season to at least break even, the Dragons last weekend being a good example. I've been chatting with Benrama a bit via email the last few days and have further refined the NRL model to have an ROI of over 25% over a 10 year sample (with NO subjective analysis). Very excited about developing it further and also applying it to other sports.
Money where my mouth is - Yes, I have bet on Tigers M/L ($5.23 @ Pinny).
I also believe as TGM and Angelo said above, the Tigers ATS is a much lower variance and still very +EV Bet, although not as +EV as the M/L. Sure, the M/L is super high variance, but I rest easy knowing that in a vacuum I only need the Tigers to win the game 20% of the time to make it profitable.
Thanks guys, hope you all had a great weekend. Bet wisely, and BOL to your MNF picks!Comment
