TGM's NRL Spread System - 2013

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 5 PLAYS

Bet # 9 - Bulldogs ML @ $2.05 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 10 - Broncos +6 @ $1.87 (Bet365) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 11 - Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 12 - Raiders ML @ $2.85 (Luxbet) - 0.5 UNITS


Going to pass on the Cowboys as they have a massive look-ahead game next week v Broncos @ Suncorp - they may blitz the Panthers early but the Panthers may get a back-door cover if the Cows rest players at the death.

Will wait until later in the weekend to see if the Tigers get some more points in their game.

Good Luck to all.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Bulldogs playing like busted arses.
No ideas in attack, woeful defence

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice win by the Broncos SU last night.
Very poor effort by the Dogs last night - no intensity whatsoever.
Manly controlled the game nicely and won the battle of the forwards.
Really worried about the middle of the ruck defence - that try to Lyon should never have happened.
Barba is definitely not 100% either - he got sold a massive dummy when Lyon scored, then was way out of position when Taufua got his 2nd try - where was he to knock the ball dead?
Kris Keating must surely be on thin ice too - how long will Hasler persist with him?
The only blokes really trying are Reynolds and Ennis.

Round 5 so far: 1-1 [-0.13 UNITS]

[hawley]

Mate, the biggest joke is Tony Williams.

Getting paid 600k for 8 carries a game?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I agree Hawley
the guy is just not in the right frame of mind.
That's the problem when you sign players a year or more in advance.
He started playing like shit around Origin time last year and hasn't improved at all - if anything his form is even worse.
Not sure why Hasler dropped Jackson to the bench for either. He's been the best performing forward for the Dogs.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The Green Machine wins, coming back from 16-0 down at HT.

ROUND 5 PLAYS

Bet # 9 - Bulldogs ML @ $2.05 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 10 - Broncos +6 @ $1.87 (Bet365) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 11 - Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN

Bet # 12 - Raiders ML @ $2.85 (Luxbet) - 0.5 UNITS - WIN

Round 5 Total: 3-1 [+2.62 UNITS]

Season Total: 6-6 [-0.63 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 6 PLAYS

Bet # 13 - Broncos ML @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 14 - Panthers +14.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 15 - Sharks +13.5 @ $1.94 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 16 - Tigers +4.5 @ $1.94 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 17 - Titans - 2 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS

Apologies for not getting the plays out yesterday, for some reason the post did not register.
Hence the Broncos bet is not counted in the official plays.

Good luck all

[Tim Gerry Mander]

A big thank you must go out to Ben Roberts.
The Titans looked dead and buried when he came on for the Eels and in the space of 20 minutes, they conceded 4 tries to lose the game and hand the Titans a win and cover.
An OK round turned into a bumper round.
A shame we can't count the Broncos bet either.
I also like the Storm at +2 earlier in the week, but chickened out of the bet.
Would have ended up 6/6.
Anyway, a great round for us regardless.

A break next week for the Test and Origin match, then back at it again.

ROUND 6 PLAYS

Bet # 13 - Broncos ML @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - N/A

Bet # 14 - Panthers +14.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 15 - Sharks +13.5 @ $1.94 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 16 - Tigers +4.5 @ $1.94 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN

Bet # 17 - Titans - 2 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN

Round 6 Total: 4-0 [+5.58 UNITS]

Season Total: 10-6 [+4.95 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

This is an unofficial play and won't be counted in the season tally.

For those looking at a bit of interest this weekend, I really like the kiwis at the line.

You can get 16.5 to 17.5 depending on the book.

I have taken NZ+16.5 @ $2.00 with TAB.

I can't see it being a blowout - both teams are evenly matched and Tim Sheens is a shit coach (although Kearney gives him a run for his money).

Cold conditions in Canberra, I expect a low-scoring game, so leaning to the UNDER 40.5 too.

Good luck to all.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Not sure about the rest of you, but this shoulder charge rule has destroyed the game as a spectacle.

Soft penalties for big hits, what a joke.

[barry cougar]

This is an unofficial play and won't be counted in the season tally.

For those looking at a bit of interest this weekend, I really like the kiwis at the line.

You can get 16.5 to 17.5 depending on the book.

I have taken NZ+16.5 @ $2.00 with TAB.

I can't see it being a blowout - both teams are evenly matched and Tim Sheens is a shit coach (although Kearney gives him a run for his money).

Cold conditions in Canberra, I expect a low-scoring game, so leaning to the UNDER 40.5 too.

Good luck to all.

Thought this was a lock at the half.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Thought this was a lock at the half.

The Kiwis needed more points with the amount of ball they had in the first half.
A couple of the refereeing decisions were questionable also.
Realistically, the score should have been around 16-6 at HT to guarantee the cover.
As it usually happens, once possession evens up, the other team will inevitably score points and the Kiwis defence leaked too many in that 10 minute period in the 2nd half.

NZ always seem to start well, then fade away in the second half - probably a better bet would have been +8.5 first half.

Never mind, time to look forward.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 7 PLAYS

Keeping it small this week as not sure how the rep break has affected team dynamics and momentum.

Bet # 18 - Raiders +10 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 19 - Tigers +5.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 20 - Rabbitohs +3.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT


Best of luck to all

[Tim Gerry Mander]

For those fishing for some action today, here is what I've hit:

Multi Bet 1 @ $62.90:

Collingwood -8.5/Over 200.5
Roosters -9.5/Under 36.5
Storm -14.5/ Under 40.5


Prop Bet

Billy Slater more tries than Bill Tupou @ $3.00 (Sportingbet)


Note these are NOT OFFICIAL system plays.
They are just action plays to have some interest in today's games.
I think the Billy Slater play is a steal though

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Off to a flyer with the bunnies grinding out a win at fortress Brookie.

That's taken the streak to 8-0.

Hope some of you are cashing in!!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 7 PLAYS

Keeping it small this week as not sure how the rep break has affected team dynamics and momentum.

Bet # 18 - Raiders +10 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 19 - Tigers +5.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 20 - Rabbitohs +3.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN


Best of luck to all

Nice start to the weekend with the Bunnies doing the business, but some tough luck in the Tigers game with them losing their HB early on and then their two centres, finishing the game with 12 players after having used all their interchanges. Hodges' try at to kill the cover was soft as shite.

The other teams I liked alot, but didn't bet all ended up winning (Roosters -9.5, Bulldogs ML, and Knights +4) - but that's punting for you!

Anyhow, still in positive territory, hoping to kick on with Origin looming.

Round 7 Total: 1-2 [-1.09 UNITS]

Season Total: 11-8 [+3.86 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

OK everyone, I'll list what my model is showing for each game this weekend from purely a Power Rating perspective.
I will then give a brief run-down for each game and then give you my plays for this weekend.

Round 8

Broncos +6
Tigers +14
Storm -15.5
Eels+7.5
Titans +6
Sharks +8.5
Penrith +17.5
Manly -4.5

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Broncos v Rabbitohs

Line opened at +4, making this a slight lean to the Broncos.
Underdogs playing at home on a national TV game gives the Broncos a situational edge.
Rabbitohs coming off two very physically draining games in Storm and Manly.
Would have been a play, except the Broncos' best back in Hodges has been ruled out of the game.
To make matters worse, psycho forward Josh McGuire is also out too.
Line has moved out to +6 now, but Hodges is worth way more than 2 points to the Broncos.
Hodges was basically the difference between the Broncos winning and losing last week's game, scoring the match sealing try from a smart dummy-half play.
I would have played Broncos +6 for 1 UNIT, but now it is a NO PLAY.

Bulldogs v Tigers

Line opened at +10.5, making this a play on the Tigers.
However, the Tigers have basically their starting side on the sideline with injury.
Because of this, the line shot out to 14 with some books.
That is a massive amount of points for the out of form Bulldogs to be giving any team.
The Bulldogs get James Graham back from his biting suspension and that will strengthen their forward pack.
The Tigers have apparently cleared Benji Marshall to make his comeback from injury in this game, however the line has not moved to reflect this.
I was looking at playing Tigers +14 for 1 UNIT, but the huge injury toll makes this a NO PLAY.

Storm v Raiders

Line opened at +14.5, making this a play for the Storm -14.5.
Terry Campese will start for the Raiders after missing most of the last 3 years with injury.
However the Raiders have lost Shillington, Papalii, Thompson and their goal-kicking centre Croker all to injury.
Josh McCrone is also under a cloud and may not play.
Too many outs for the Raiders and for those looking for entertainment, keep an eye out for Sandor Earl, whose opposite number (probably Fonua) will tear him a new one a couple of times over.
This could get extremely ugly for the Green Machine, who have been belted in all of their away games, losing by 22, 36, 16 and 18 points against vastly inferior opposition.
The only thing keeping me from going hard on the Storm is that apart from their round 1 game, they haven't managed to blow any team away at AAMI Park.
Line has moved to -15.5, but that should not make that much difference as which team wins by 15 points in NRL?
Playing Storm -15.5 for 1 UNIT @ $1.92.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Eels v Cowboys

Line opened at +7.5, making this a lean to the Eels.
Line has not moved so far this week.
The Eels got absolutely belted by the Panthers in the Westie derby on Monday night.
To make matters worse, they lost their best forward in Tim Mannah to injury.
The Eels have reacted well after blowout losses so far this year, edging out the Sharks after getting belted by the Roosters 50-0.
Their only 2 wins this year have come at home, so they'll welcome playing back at Parra Stadium.
The Cowboys on the other hand have been terrible on the road again this year, with their only away win coming in round 1 against the Bulldogs, whose problems have been well-documented over recent weeks.
Dallas Johnson comes back into the Cowboys side, which will strengthen their defence.
The Eels welcome back FuiFui MoiMoi, but interestingly coach Stuart seems to have lost patience with some of their regular first-graders and has made a host of changes to the team.
Out of the team goes Ben Smith and most importantly for those looking at backing the Eels, Ben Roberts finally gets the chop.
Into the team come a raft of promising young players. Kaysa Pritchard, brother of the Bulldogs' Frank, will make his debut off the bench for the Eels, giving them some spark in a position they have struggled with since the departure of Kevin Kingston. Pritchard has been a star in the NYC for the Eels.
Taking into account the Eels' home record and the Cowboys' poor away form, I like the Eels for a small play at the spread.
I am also expecting another low-scoring slugfest.
Playing Eels +7.5 for 1 UNIT @ $1.92

Warriors v Titans

Line opened at +6.5, making this a lean to the Titans.
The Titans copped some bad luck last week, losing 3 of their starters to injury and having to play the whole second half with 1 reserve on the interchange bench. As expected, they were towelled up accordingly.
The Titans will be without Ash Harrison, their best back-rower and Matt Srama, their live-wire hooker. Luke O'Dwyer is also out of the game, but they do welcome back Kevin Gordon.
The Warriors put up a gallant effort last week against the Storm, but were pipped at the post by some Cronk/Smith/Slater magic, as well as being given a helping hand by Jerome "I can't tackle" Ropati, who was gassed by Chambers twice.
The Warriors welcome back Manu Vatuvai and captain Simon Mannering, which should tip the scales in their favour.
Line is now +5.5, but no clear edge in this game - NO PLAY.

Knights v Sharks

Line opened at +8.5, making this a lean to the Sharks.
The Knights ended up on the end of some good fortune last week, after the Titans lost 3 players to injury in the first half.
They are unchanged from last week and back at home where they are 4-0.
The Sharks are on a 4 game losing streak and bogged down in this ASADA investigation into alleged misuse of horse-steroids.
They had their chances last week, but some poor execution let them down.
Todd Carney should be better after last week's run and he'll be keen to impress NSW selectors a month out from Origin.
Strong situational angle for the Sharks based on the model.
Apart from last week's game, they haven't been beaten by more than 7 away from home.
I like the Sharks in this spot, so rolling with them.
Playing Sharks +8.5 for 2 UNITS @ $1.92

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Roosters v Panthers

Line opened at +13.5, making it a lean to the Panthers.
Both teams were big winners last week and this should be an intriguing game.
Jennings up against his old club.
Masoe and Plum against their old club.
Long and bitter history between these two clubs.
Gould leaving Penrith to coach the Roosters. Fittler poached by the Roosters.
Panthers coach Cleary used to play for the Roosters. Gould back at the Panthers.
2003 Grand Final and THAT tackle by Scotty Sattler on Todd Byrne that won the GF for the Panthers.
Should be a cracking game.
Line is now out to 17.5 with Luxbet - Phucking huge for a game of league.
The Roosters have been clinical at home this year, but they've had a very favourable draw thus far.
Apart from the shut-out loss to the Cowboys, the Panthers have been competitive.
Strong situational angle for the Panthers based on the model.
Liking the Panthers with the points in this spot.
Playing Panthers +17.5 for 2 UNITS @ $1.92

Dragons v Sea Eagles

Line opened at +6, making this a lean to the Sea Eagles.
Both teams coming off losses last week, with Manly losing a few key players to suspension.
The Dragons were slaughtered after starting well, but are struggling with Fien at HB.
Apart from their loss to the Titans, the Sea Eagles have been very solid away from home this year.
The Dragons on the other hand are not the same team from a few years ago and struggle to score points.
Their record against quality teams is poor and their only win at home was against an overrated Knights team.
I like Manly's right edge and i'm expecting Lyon, Foran and Stewart to run havoc. Matt Cooper is a solid defender, but he's getting on in years and will have his hands full containing these guys.
Matai's suspension is a blow, but they have more than capable replacements.
Manly will also be keen to right the ship after getting done by the Bunnies at home last week.
The Dragons will try hard, but they just lack direction and spark in the halves.
With the line dropping to 4.5 now, I am liking the Sea Eagles even more.
Playing Sea Eagles -4.5 for 2 UNITS @ $1.92

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 8 PLAYS

Bet # 21 - Storm -15.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 22 - Eels +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 23 - Sharks +8.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 24 - Panthers +17.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 25 - Manly - 4.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS


Good luck to all

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I'm hearing that Tim Mannah and Jacob Loko could be back for the Eels this weekend.
Makes the Eels play even more appealing.

[sando]

Damn that's some serious effort you put into your write-up's. Best of luck this w/e mate...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Damn that's some serious effort you put into your write-up's. Best of luck this w/e mate...

Thanks mate - not nearly as much effort though as you put in for all yours.
Hope those AFL plays come through as i've multied a few into some of my league plays.

Awesome work in the NBA yesterday and today, but those Orioles destroyed my multi!!

It definitely isn't looking good for your boys this weekend - the Green Machine is going to need a mechanic after the Storm finish with them.

[sando]

Ha I'm used to it mate. Been a Raiders fan for 20 years, I'm used to the pain and punishment by now haha. Glad to see your on the Eagles, been struggling with my NRL plays this year...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Ha I'm used to it mate. Been a Raiders fan for 20 years, I'm used to the pain and punishment by now haha. Glad to see your on the Eagles, been struggling with my NRL plays this year...

Your boys somehow managed to topple the Storm in Melbourne - again.
That is the third year in a row they have beaten them down there.
Impressive result, considering they were missing 5 regulars and two more went down injured during the game.

Mixed bag so far this weekend.
Eels and Sharks did the business for us.
Storm looked to be on another planet.
Panthers down by 4 at HT and up to their necks in the game and get belted second half, 20-0 to blow the cover

[garygroundwork]

Storm have looked a little shaky last couple of games..not sure where they are at. That brain fade by Widdop in the last 2 minutes...wtf was he thinking???

Hopefully Manly can get the chocolates

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Storm have looked a little shaky last couple of games..not sure where they are at. That brain fade by Widdop in the last 2 minutes...wtf was he thinking???

Hopefully Manly can get the chocolates

Storm face Panthers, Sea Eagles and Roosters before their scheduled by prior to Origin 1.
You'd like the Panthers if they are getting at least 12 points in that game.
I expect them to start slowing down over the next few months, similar to what happened last year, then watch them come good after Origin 3.

Manly ended up just holding on to bring home the bikkies and make it a profitable weekend.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

It was close to being a bumper weekend for us.
At HT in the Roosters/Panthers game, you'd have every right to think that the Panthers were going to cover, only being down by 4.
In the end, it was not to be, with the Roosters icing the game and winning by 24 points.
Lucky for us Manly came through, although they made it look hard after being up 18-0 after 20 minutes, only for the Dragons to bring it level with 10 to go.
Thankfully Soward didn't have his kicking boots on.

ROUND 8 PLAYS

Bet # 21 - Storm -15.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 22 - Eels +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT- WIN

Bet # 23 - Sharks +8.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN

Bet # 24 - Panthers +17.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS - LOSS

Bet # 25 - Manly - 4.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN


Good luck to all

Round 8 Total: 3-2 [+1.60 UNITS]

Season Total: 14-10 [+5.46 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 9 - Power Rating Leans

Cowboys +9.5
Tigers +6
Bulldogs -4.5
Eels +6
Knights +4.5
Titans -5.5
Storm -14
Sea Eagles +2

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Rabbitohs v Cowboys

Line opened at 9.5, making it a lean to the Cowboys.
Interesting matchup here.
Both teams last start winners.
I really like the Cowboys in this spot.
Apart from a couple of dismal efforts early in the piece (Knights and Storm) where they lost by over 20 points, the Cowboys have been very competitive, with their only other losses being by 2 points.
In the last 5 games between the two sides with the Rabbitohs playing at "home", the Rabbitohs have won them all with margins of 6, 4, 28, 2 and 6.
This season, the Bunnies have played twice at "home", beating the Sharks by 2 and losing to the Storm by 7.
The Cowboys pack should be more than capable of handling the big Souths pack, although Luke gives them so many options from dummy half.
The halves battle will be crucial, but i'm expecting JT to shade Reynolds and Sutton.
I really like the Cowboys' back 5 - Tate and Linnett are superb defenders, meaning that Inglis will have less room to weave his magic and set up his outside men. Graham and Winterstein are solid under the high ball, negating one of Reynolds' strengths, being the cross-field bomb. Bown has aged, but he still has plenty of zip, so he should be able to deal with the short kicking game of the Bunnies.
I'm expecting the Cowboys to target Bryson Goodwin and Andrew Everingham, as that looks to be Souths' weakest link.
In summary, although Souths have the wood on the Cowboys in Sydney, the games are usually very close encounters.
I see the +9.5 is drifting, so if anyone can grab +10 on the Cowboys, take it and run.
Playing Cowboys +9.5 @ $2.00 for @ UNITS (TAB)

Tigers v Sharks

Line opened at 5.5, making it a lean to the Tigers.
The Tigers are in all sorts, struggling with injuries and now sitting at the bottom of the ladder.
They were belted last weekend by a rampant Bulldogs side and must arrest this form slump to avoid falling behind the rest of the table.
The Sharks won a thriller in golden point last weekend, but are without inspirational captain Paul Gallen.
A few situational angles working for the Tigers here.
The Sharks are also off a short week and a draining game.
Benji Marshall has come out and publicly bagged his recent form and performances and has advised that he'll be going back to his natural running game.
I expect a better showing this week from the Tigers.
The Sharks have struggled in games this year and apart from 1 blowout win against the Warriors, they have won their other 2 games by 2 and 1 points.
Past 5 matches with the Tigers being "home" favours the Tigers 4-1.
Playing Tigers +6 @ $1.94 for 1 UNIT (Luxbet)

[benrama]

Eyeing that Cowboys play off myself, only problem is that on any given day they can play like the under 12 girls team.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

No more standouts for mine for the rest of the round.

I like Bulldogs-4.5, but wary of the Warriors' NZ form, where they have either won or last their 4 games by up to 2 points. This game is being played in Wellington though, where the Bulldogs have won their last 5.

Eels are a chance but I think the cover last week might throw a spanner in the works - looking at playing the UNDER in this game.

Was leaning to the Knights, because the Raiders are a horrible team backing up after a solid win - massive let down spot for them in this game and I expect the Knights to keep it close. May hit this tomorrow.

Titans are another I might hit up - they welcome back some players and the Dragons would be absolutely demoralised after MNF having lost Brett Morris to injury.

Storm v Panthers line is spot on and with no clear edge, it is a pass. Bellamy would have put a rocket up them this week, so expect a better showing.

Manly catching points at home would be an automatic bet, but the Brett Stewart injury is massive. The Roosters get their first real test of the season - it should be a cracking game.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 9 PLAYS

Bet # 26 - Cowboys +9.5 @ $2.00 (TAB) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 27 - Tigers +6 @ $1.94 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

Best of luck to all!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Geez, tough beat on the Cowboys game.
They were in it for most of the game, but Just could not convert field position into points.
Souths did well to keep them out for that 15 minute period at the end of the game, where the Cowboys were throwing everything at them.
The Merritt try was pretty demoralising, having had the Rabbitohs pinned in their area for a good 7-8 minutes, the Cowboys gave them an easy passage downfield and Souths took full advantage.
Even then, the Cowboys had a chance to at least get a cover for us, but when Bolton spilt the ball and Inglis took off for a runaway try, it was all she wrote.
The score really didn't reflect the evenness of the contest - I thought George Burgess turned the game for Souths - before his introduction, the Cowboys were all over them and the Bunnies looked flat.
Credit to the Rabbitohs, they have improved markedly and are now actually winning games they would have lost in previous seasons.

Did not see the Tigers/Sharks game, but in hindsight, given the Tigers' poor form, it was a poor bet.
They are struggling big time and it doesn't look like ending any time soon.

Solid wins for Canterbury and the Titans, but credit must go to the Eels and Panthers for springing a couple of massive upsets.
The Storm have now lost two in a row and it seems like the early season start is catching up with them.
Billy Slater looked particularly out of sorts.
When Simmons took the intercept, Slater took 4 strides then basically gave up - not a good sign and he may be nursing an injury.
Not sure if these guys have started shifting their focus to Origin or not.
Regardless, testing times for the Storm.