TGM's NRL Spread System - 2013

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 17 PLAYS

Bet # 41 - Sharks -5.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 42 - Roosters -10 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 43 - Titans -1.5 @ $1.95 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 44 - Raiders -2.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 45 - Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT

[rohan22no]

Hey TGM,
thanks for the reply the other day. Very interesting. I've done a model for NRL/AFL assigning a rating to each team based on margins of their last games (exponential smoothing/moving average style), and also taking into account home ground advantage. Is yours using a similar system?

BOL this weekend!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Hey TGM,
thanks for the reply the other day. Very interesting. I've done a model for NRL/AFL assigning a rating to each team based on margins of their last games (exponential smoothing/moving average style), and also taking into account home ground advantage. Is yours using a similar system?

BOL this weekend!

Similar style, but it is more of a running number system.

[rohan22no]

Cool. I guess those type of systems fall down a bit when the teams are severely disrupted (eg origin time) which is why you take those weeks off?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 17 PLAYS

Bet # 41 - Sharks -5.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 42 - Roosters -10 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 43 - Titans -1.5 @ $1.95 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 44 - Raiders -2.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 45 - Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT

The Roosters would have been a 2 unit play, but I am a little weary of their away form.
They have only managed to win by double figures twice, once against an injury depleted Manly side, and the other against the Eels.
Having said that, the Dragons have been average this year and in they come into this game with a host of nobodies in their backline like Quinlan, Green and Runciman.
I expect SBW and Maloney to terrorise their outside backs and the fullback Quinlan to get bombed as much as the Gaza Strip.
I am expecting the Chooks to put in a solid performance before their last bye.

I was also eyeing the Rabbitohs for a 2 unit play, but they've been up for quite a few weeks now, so they may come out a little flat.
The Warriors have never won in Perth but are also on a 5 game winning streak.
They have a massive road trip for this game too, having to change 3 time-zones.

The Titans and Raiders are both situational plays, having been belted both last start.
The Titans are missing a number of backs, but their pack is still solid.
The Panthers have been awful away from home, only managing to beat the hapless Dragons, while the Titans have surprised quite a few with their form this season.

The Raiders are a different beast at home this season.
They are undefeated at Canberra Stadium and this does not look like changing against a notoriously terrible travelling side like the Cowboys.
The Raiders are missing a host of backs though, but this looms as a must win game for them given their terrible for and against, while the Cowboys have a solid run home with a host of their games being played at home.

Must win game for the Sharkies form mine.
The Tigers have been good the last few weeks but I am expecting the Sharks halves to take advantage of some inexperienced opposition.

Good luck all

[sando]

I expect SBW and Maloney to terrorise their outside backs and the fullback Quinlan to get bombed as much as the Gaza Strip.

Nice Plays mate. Can't believe your actually playing the Raiders haha.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice Plays mate. Can't believe your actually playing the Raiders haha.

Ha, could be a curse - every time I play them, they lose!!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Late changes for the sharks throwing a spanner in the works.

Michael Gordon and Beau Ryan out

[Mase of Base]

Late changes for the sharks throwing a spanner in the works.

Michael Gordon and Beau Ryan out

Personally don't think this a huge out he's a solid player no more and I don't think Gordan is much different. I've gone huge for me on the Sharks ML (never thought I'd do that!) but I'm confident, perhaps over confident. I'm anticipating a big defensive effort and the Sharks to offer more in attack tonight. I think the books are reading to much into a Storm team backing up from origin and the Raiders who are dire away too much. We will soon see, cmon you Sharkies.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sharks were great in the first half, but fell apart in the second.
Stuart Mills gifted the Tigers about 3 tries and never looked comfortable under the high ball.
Caught a break near the death when up by 8 when he looked to have knocked on, but the refs didn't call it.
Fifita then unleashed the beast and scored to ice the game.

No Gallen, no worries!

Great start to the weekend, let's hope the Chooks can continue the run.

[MrXYZ]

4-1 for the round. Nice work!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 17 PLAYS

Bet # 41 - Sharks -5.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNITS - WIN

Bet # 42 - Roosters -10 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 43 - Titans -1.5 @ $1.95 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 44 - Raiders -2.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 45 - Rabbitohs -8.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Great weekend, with the Raiders and Rabbitohs coming good after the Titans were belted up in Darwin.
The Titans play was the weakest of the lot and in hindsight, probably should have passed the game due to their horrendous injury toll.
Their error rate has been woeful the last few games and it has translated into the final scores.
Experienced guys like Kevin Gordon have really been letting the team down.

Anyhow, 4-1 is great any day of the week, let's keep the momentum going.

Round 17 Total: 4-1 [+3.67 UNITS]

Season Total: 25-1-18 [+8.44 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Just been having a look at the run home and this is how I think the ladder finishes:

1. Rabbitohs
2. Roosters
3. Storm
4. Sea Eagles
5. Bulldogs
6. Panthers
7. Sharks
8. Warriors

9. Raiders
10. Knights
11. Cowboys
12. Titans
13. Broncos
14. Dragons
15. Tigers
16. Eels

Positions 5-10 will only have 4 points separating them and it looks like teams will need 30 points to be assured a place in the top 8.

[fitguy67]

TGM, i've been looking at the ladder at http://www.nrl.com/TelstraPremiershi...1/Default.aspx

and trying to figure out exactly how points are assigned

i assumed it was 2pts for a Win, 1 for a Draw and 0 for a Loss...but it doesn't completely jive with that
(eg. Rabbitohs are 14-0-2...and show 30 points, not the 28 i figure)

what am i missing?

[brad89]

Win = 2pts
Bye = 2pts
Draw = 1pt each
Loss = 0

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Fitguy, as Brad said, you get 2 points for a win and for the bye as well.

Note about draws, you only get 1 point for the draw if it ends up being a draw after extra time, not the 80 minutes.

[fitguy67]

thanks guys,

quik follow-ups:
1. how many rounds in the regular season
2. how many byes are scheduled for each team in the regular season

appreciate the help

[sando]

thanks guys,

quik follow-ups:
1. how many rounds in the regular season
2. how many byes are scheduled for each team in the regular season

appreciate the help

26 and 2.

[fitguy67]

thanks Brad, TGM & Sando

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Leans

Eels +10
Sharks -3.5
Sea Eagles -7.5

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 18 PLAYS

Bet # 46 - Sharks -2.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 47 - Eels +11.5 @ $1.92 (Luxbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 48 - Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT

I was looking at playing these for 2 units each, however it is basically last chance saloon for the Broncos and the Cowboys this weekend.
No team has ever made the top 8 after being 6-11 and that is the prospect facing both these teams.
Broncos coach Griffin has been given the dreaded vote of confidence from the board and we all know what that means.
Neil Henry is basically a dead man walking at the Cowboys.
I'd be surprised if either of these coaches were with their respective teams next season.
Both teams have the bye next week, then will face off in the Qld derby the following week.
Extra motivation perhaps?
The Sharks lose Fifita who was absolutely unstoppable last week, but the Broncos are missing at least half their regulars due to Origin or injury.
Holding me back is the Sharks have a tendency to lay an egg when you least expect them.

I am more confident in Manly, who should realistically be a 2 try better team than the undermanned Cowboys.
But again, the do or die game might kill the cover for the Sea Eagles, so playing it safe.

I still like the Eels and the line keeps moving up, so I am taking the 11.5. If you can get 12 or 13, even better for you.
There are precious few games left in the season that will actually mean anything to the players as they are out of top 8 contention, so derby games like this mean they will be keen to lift.
Ricky Stuart is also good in getting his troops up for one-off games.
This is the perfect example.
"Boys, our season is shot, but let's get one over our rivals and in the process try and avoid the wooden spoon".
They've bounced back well and have been competitive at Parra Stadium, especially after a trouncing the week before.
I'd be more confident if Hayne was in, hence the bet size reduction from 2 to 1 unit.

I am leaving the other game alone, but expect the Bulldogs to win, but not necessarily cover.
The Storm have been very competitive this year, only losing 1 game by more than 6 points.
On the flip side, the Dogs have struggled to find any rhythm this season and have only been able to torch two sides so far.
Plenty of punters got burnt a few weeks ago when the Roosters beat the Bulldogs in similar circumstances.

Good luck whatever you play.

[benrama]

BOL mate, I have a suspicion Eels pull one of those games too, besides I could never bring myself to lay double digits on the Panthers on the road.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Cheers Benrama....

Slugfest up in Brisbane to start the round. 0-0 at HT

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Geez Carney is such a mixed bag - nice pass to get Gordon over, but his defence for the Broncos try was terrible.

[rohan22no]

great call on sharks TGM

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Phuck Carney you mong - learn how to tackle.... that's two tries you gifted them to kill the cover.

Terrible!

[sweepem]

unbelieveable shit in the last 3 Minutes. i had -3,5 and -1,5.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

unbelieveable shit in the last 3 Minutes. i had -3,5 and -1,5.

Yeah, wtf was that?
After they kicked the field goal they fell asleep and nearly lost the game.
Another bad beat.

[benrama]

That's one sick beat, 19 points in 7 minutes to finish the game. I was on the under, thank fk it was scoreless till the 53 minute.

Games like this do make you wonder don't they?

[rohan22no]

Sorry TGM I hope it wasn't me that jinxed you.

Great call anyhow - long term focus.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

No jinx, that's just a sickening beat.
What makes it worse is that why did they go for the conversion?
They still needed a try to win, so they could have declined the shot for goal and gotten at least another 30 seconds with the ball in hand.
Still think we were on the right side in this one and if wade graham doesn't get injured early, the sharks most likely win by more.
Still fuming at Carney for those piss poor attempted tackles.
How does he expect to get picked for Origin again on that defensive display?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Jackpot
Eels hold on to lose 17-10
Our mate Ben Roberts did his best to blow the cover for us and the win for Parra - how many times did he get tackled with the ball on the last play or make an error?

Feel bad for Sando, but the result eases the pain of last night's bad beat.

[benrama]

Good work mate, and yea Roberts made me want to throw my TV. pretty awful game of footy really but at least Eels brought more effort this week

I think Sando had 2x on -6.5 so he just got there

[sando]

Nice call on Parra mate. Your doggies looked good today, especially Perrett and Barba.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice call on Parra mate. Your doggies looked good today, especially Perrett and Barba.

Cheers mate, pity we were on opposite sides.

Just watching the replay now.
They look better today.
Let's hope this starts the run for them.
They have the bye next week, then Eels, Dragons and Titans - which on form should all be comfortable wins.

Hopefully Manly can do the business tomorrow and make it a good finish for us.