How about the 4th race at Belmont, maybe a price in waiting.
Lets take a closer look at Bambi Bound, of particular interest is are the recent claims on this horse. Notice the claim on 4/22/12 made by David Jacobson, the price that day was 20k, the next start the price is increased to 35k, as we can see there were no claiming bids for 35k tag. The next race is where it gets interesting, the horse is moved up to 50k and at this point at Gary Contessa enters a claim slip. As objective handicappers we have to ask ourselves why Gary Contessa is willing to pay an inflated price for the horse, he could of claimed the horse 25 days earlier for 35k? Also we should note that the new owner is Jennifer Contessa, likely Gary Contessa's wife or daughter and not one of the trainers regular clients (private owners).
The next question has to be what is the intent of the trainer in the immediate future with regards towards this purchase? How quickly will the trainer be looking to get a return on his investment? Is today the day?
I have watched this angle for many years, overall, in my estimate, it is about a 50% play spread over the horses next three starts, and being so, long odds must be demanded, something above 5-1 is what we are looking for, I think that this might be the case today.
This horse looks to be up against it in terms of class in today's race, in the field we see a few horses with overnight stakes races in their profiles, we also see one or two that have raced in graded company. There's an old adage in horse racing that says...
"Stakes horses often win in stakes races, stakes horses don't always win in claiming races".
The logic behind the saying is that if a stakes horse is sound and sharp it would be poor choice to enter it in a claiming event, the fit and ready stakes horse should be racing in stakes races.
Now, with all this being said, lets look at another horse in same race.
Lets look at W.W.'s Lady's Man.
Lets look at the claim pattern starting at the bottom, note the claim for 16k on 9/23/11, then note that the horse was claimed while moving up in class, the claim for 20k a month later. Notice how this horse was given time off (approx. 90 days), then returned to racing at a yet higher price tag, further notice a nice 3rd place finish in the return, then a troubled trip in the next race, followed by a win at odds of 13-1.
I place horses with this type of activity onto my DFR watch list, I get notified when they are entered to race, I note each as "claimed while moving up", I generally only follow them for their first three starts after the increased claim, or if they win back sooner.
Good luck today punters.
Lets take a closer look at Bambi Bound, of particular interest is are the recent claims on this horse. Notice the claim on 4/22/12 made by David Jacobson, the price that day was 20k, the next start the price is increased to 35k, as we can see there were no claiming bids for 35k tag. The next race is where it gets interesting, the horse is moved up to 50k and at this point at Gary Contessa enters a claim slip. As objective handicappers we have to ask ourselves why Gary Contessa is willing to pay an inflated price for the horse, he could of claimed the horse 25 days earlier for 35k? Also we should note that the new owner is Jennifer Contessa, likely Gary Contessa's wife or daughter and not one of the trainers regular clients (private owners).
The next question has to be what is the intent of the trainer in the immediate future with regards towards this purchase? How quickly will the trainer be looking to get a return on his investment? Is today the day?
I have watched this angle for many years, overall, in my estimate, it is about a 50% play spread over the horses next three starts, and being so, long odds must be demanded, something above 5-1 is what we are looking for, I think that this might be the case today.
This horse looks to be up against it in terms of class in today's race, in the field we see a few horses with overnight stakes races in their profiles, we also see one or two that have raced in graded company. There's an old adage in horse racing that says...
"Stakes horses often win in stakes races, stakes horses don't always win in claiming races".
The logic behind the saying is that if a stakes horse is sound and sharp it would be poor choice to enter it in a claiming event, the fit and ready stakes horse should be racing in stakes races.
Now, with all this being said, lets look at another horse in same race.
Lets look at W.W.'s Lady's Man.
Lets look at the claim pattern starting at the bottom, note the claim for 16k on 9/23/11, then note that the horse was claimed while moving up in class, the claim for 20k a month later. Notice how this horse was given time off (approx. 90 days), then returned to racing at a yet higher price tag, further notice a nice 3rd place finish in the return, then a troubled trip in the next race, followed by a win at odds of 13-1.
I place horses with this type of activity onto my DFR watch list, I get notified when they are entered to race, I note each as "claimed while moving up", I generally only follow them for their first three starts after the increased claim, or if they win back sooner.
Good luck today punters.
