Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

Something came up. All good but will do it in the morning

[JBEX]

While we are on the Army Mule subject and mismanagement of placement for some of these horses by their connections, it will be cool to watch the horse Army Gal that Linda Rice just won her 2nd race in two starts with. As you know, I constantly praise her for putting her horses in really good situations. That's what she does. And the theory of a horse improving by being successful is hopefully something we will witness together.
That said, she is quickly running out of spots without trying a Stake as 2 other than races for 3 year olds in March are hard to fill and may not even be written quite yet. Either way, she will be looking for what is best for the horse which is always a breath of fresh air.

figured I'd move forward

by army mule ..aqu R4 #6 army gal (5-2) @ 2:13


returns in 6 days and stretches to a mile vs stakes horses..she must really like her





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[JBEX]

chancer mcpatrick makes his 3yo debut in the tampa bay derby..R11 #2 (8-5) @ 5:34


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[str]

Hey STR: tell us about the story where you put up a BILL on a horse race and returned 11K with a good friend of yours. Did you hit a super etc? THX.

It is the same thing we do in here when I mention that a horse did not relax, or ran off, or had something mentally traumatic completely compromise it's effort and show form that is not indicative of the horses true , IMO, ability's.

Palace Malice ran in the Ky. Derby in 2013. He was blinkers ON that day. He got all stirred up and he ran like a wild deer. 22 2/5ths, 45 1/5th, 109 4/5ths on the lead and hit the wall . His energy simply drained out too fast.

Pletcher, his trainer, skipped the Preakness and took the blinkers OFF for the Belmont. It was the horses home track and the thought was he would be a completely different horse at Belmont and relax instead of run like his tail was on fire.

So we keyed him on top only to win, in the exacta with Orb, probably the best all around horse in the triple crown races, and Oxbow who had just won the Preakness. We were up about 100 and change for the day just betting about 20-40 total per race and splitting all bets, so we simply keyed Palace Malice 1st only, to win, then on top only in the exacta with Oxbow and Orb, again in the triple with those two underneath in both 2nd and 3rd positions and I found a horse who had run at Belmont last out against a pretty severe bias and performed well under those circumstances and tossed him in with Owbox and Orb under Palace Malice in the super.
The bet was simple. If Palace Malice wins, we win. If he gets beat, we break even on the day and had fun doing it.

We hit all the tickets. I don't remember the exact amounts of each bet but they were all for 1.00 play in the Super. It was like about 20 win, 20 exacta each way, 2.00 triple each way 2nd and 3rd and 1.00 super with the winner on top and all three under. When they all hit, after taxes withheld of about 2K from the super it was around 11K or 12 that we cut up each.

That is why I have always felt that if you have a solid opinion on a horse, you can play around with it and get lucky. You don't have to bet a ton of money. Try and keep in fun and at the same time a logical play.

That is all we did that day. And it was winnings from the day while waiting for the Belmont to run so that was even better.
That is a memory with most likely my best friend in life that we will share forever, The money was great to win, but the memory is priceless.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ THX for the recollection STR. Always fun to be on the right side in this game. I love the shades off angle when handicapping. I find a lot of horses run well 1st off especially at times for big odds. THX.

[str]

figured I'd move forward

by army mule ..aqu R4 #6 army gal (5-2) @ 2:13


returns in 6 days and stretches to a mile vs stakes horses..she must really like her





.

That looks like a really interesting race. Not at all easy but Army Gal is pretty solid herself.

Probably the only race for her for the next 6-8 weeks so it makes sense too me.

That run down the backside could be a real cat and mouse game with the 7 horse. Should be very interesting.

[str]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1284973811.mp4

[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Workout Update
[/COLOR]
Caldera worked five furlongs this morning at Oaklawn Park outside of stablemate Ripped, covering the distance in a bullet :59.20. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is still mulling over Derby prep options for your son of Liam’s Map, but Louisiana continues to be the front runner as of this moment. We will pass along any updates as soon as a decision has been made.

Excellent work and gallop out IMO .

[str]

You always keep me on my toes to look at the races more closely!

Yeah Batt. No matter what we all do, it is the little things that can add up to success or failure as I am sure you know.

[str]

Chancer McPatrick.

I saw the post about him. The flake of bone that they took out could have happened in his last race but often times it is something that developed over a couple of races or works. That is pretty routine these days, I guess like going in and cleaning out an area that is collecting slight debris like an ankle joint in the front or in the upper knee joints. Arthroscopic is so routine these days compared to years ago.

Perfect time to do it so that makes sense as well. Just no way to know from our vantage point JBEX how much it freed the horse up stride wise. Have to assume it certainly did. But IMO, he is kind of starting from scratch again with the two turn races. We saw him dominate around 1 turn. But two is a different story so we will learn a lot in today's race I think.
Thanks for the heads up.

[JBEX]

That looks like a really interesting race. Not at all easy but Army Gal is pretty solid herself.

Probably the only race for her for the next 6-8 weeks so it makes sense too me.

That run down the backside could be a real cat and mouse game with the 7 horse. Should be very interesting.

yes what develops between her and the 7 early will have a big say in the outcome ..imo it's a big show of confidence to do this ..have to think with many alw races being optional claimers they'd have a 3 and up nw2ot scheduled at some point in the coming month or two..logic being you need a place for the older high claimers to run also..not an easy spot at all but like the aggressiveness by a trainer who knows her stuff







.

[JBEX]

Chancer McPatrick.

I saw the post about him. The flake of bone that they took out could have happened in his last race but often times it is something that developed over a couple of races or works. That is pretty routine these days, I guess like going in and cleaning out an area that is collecting slight debris like an ankle joint in the front or in the upper knee joints. Arthroscopic is so routine these days compared to years ago.

Perfect time to do it so that makes sense as well. Just no way to know from our vantage point JBEX how much it freed the horse up stride wise. Have to assume it certainly did. But IMO, he is kind of starting from scratch again with the two turn races. We saw him dominate around 1 turn. But two is a different story so we will learn a lot in today's race I think.
Thanks for the heads up.

I thought I may have posted about him a couple of days ago ..memory's just awful

I think with all the 2yo experience this horse had a later start makes some sense..2 races to the derby not so uncommon if he's up to it..lots of pace in this race and small field so really nice set up for him..maybe the blinkers help also ..think he's going to run a solid race today



.

[batt33]

It is the same thing we do in here when I mention that a horse did not relax, or ran off, or had something mentally traumatic completely compromise it's effort and show form that is not indicative of the horses true , IMO, ability's.

Palace Malice ran in the Ky. Derby in 2013. He was blinkers ON that day. He got all stirred up and he ran like a wild deer. 22 2/5ths, 45 1/5th, 109 4/5ths on the lead and hit the wall . His energy simply drained out too fast.

Pletcher, his trainer, skipped the Preakness and took the blinkers OFF for the Belmont. It was the horses home track and the thought was he would be a completely different horse at Belmont and relax instead of run like his tail was on fire.

So we keyed him on top only to win, in the exacta with Orb, probably the best all around horse in the triple crown races, and Oxbow who had just won the Preakness. We were up about 100 and change for the day just betting about 20-40 total per race and splitting all bets, so we simply keyed Palace Malice 1st only, to win, then on top only in the exacta with Oxbow and Orb, again in the triple with those two underneath in both 2nd and 3rd positions and I found a horse who had run at Belmont last out against a pretty severe bias and performed well under those circumstances and tossed him in with Owbox and Orb under Palace Malice in the super.
The bet was simple. If Palace Malice wins, we win. If he gets beat, we break even on the day and had fun doing it.

We hit all the tickets. I don't remember the exact amounts of each bet but they were all for 1.00 play in the Super. It was like about 20 win, 20 exacta each way, 2.00 triple each way 2nd and 3rd and 1.00 super with the winner on top and all three under. When they all hit, after taxes withheld of about 2K from the super it was around 11K or 12 that we cut up each.

That is why I have always felt that if you have a solid opinion on a horse, you can play around with it and get lucky. You don't have to bet a ton of money. Try and keep in fun and at the same time a logical play.

That is all we did that day. And it was winnings from the day while waiting for the Belmont to run so that was even better.
That is a memory with most likely my best friend in life that we will share forever, The money was great to win, but the memory is priceless.

That's Awesome STR!

[batt33]

Yeah Batt. No matter what we all do, it is the little things that can add up to success or failure as I am sure you know.

that's for sure!

[batt33]

Just noticed "Eagles Flight" half brother to Flightline made his second start today after a long layoff. If you recall He trounced " Visceral" a horse I had a part of in his first start
.https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ree-length-win

In a Merry go round race "Mirahmadi" a Baffert trained horse led pretty much wire to wire Flightline ran second.

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

[Madison]

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

[JBEX]

Making his 3rd start after a lay off .. by the times of his workouts been training well. Race 10 at Santa Anita number #7
4:47 post time.

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

like #6 none above the law (5-1)

won off a surface switch, lateral class and distance move on 6/22..similiar running line to today's also..consider statebred stakes to open alw (today) similiar in class

[JBEX]

yes what develops between her and the 7 early will have a big say in the outcome ..imo it's a big show of confidence to do this ..have to think with many alw races being optional claimers they'd have a 3 and up nw2ot scheduled at some point in the coming month or two..logic being you need a place for the older high claimers to run also..not an easy spot at all but like the aggressiveness by a trainer who knows her stuff







.

I am wrong about this and in a previous post which I don't feel like searching for lol you mentioned there might not be an allowance race for her ..looked at the book and you are correct ..probably why they ran her today



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[Madison]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

[JBEX]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

it was a nice race but the older stakes horses tied a track record at the same distance earlier in the card ..OA ran over a second slower to the 3/4's and final time a little more than that of the other race..he's bred to be a sprinter top and bottom and I think they'll stick with going to the pat day mile which is the perfect spot for him

chancer imo got just what he needed in that race and if ok will go to a final derby prep somewhere..remember also your horse was 3rd off a layoff and CM hadn't raced since the breeders cup

[JBEX]

it was a nice race but the older stakes horses tied a track record at the same distance earlier in the card ..OA ran over a second slower to the 3/4's and final time a little more than that of the other race..he's bred to be a sprinter top and bottom and I think they'll stick with going to the pat day mile which is the perfect spot for him

chancer imo got just what he needed in that race and if ok will go to a final derby prep somewhere..remember also your horse was 3rd off a layoff and CM hadn't raced since the breeders cup

I had it OM and it's OA (owen almighty)..corrected

[batt33]

Last start Jan/25 was 1st back since May/24 debut. I'd mortgage my home to get him at ML.

He really took off down the stretch when he finally changed leads.... looked like the jockey and him were fighting at the top of the stretch.

[batt33]

Boy I just sux. A shadow of my former self. As you all know Owen owes me a lot of money. I was intent on at least $100 to win at ML 5-1. 2 talking heads pick him and he goes from 7/2 to 5/2 last flash. Owner says even if he wins we're not going to the derby. I've got $10 to him winning the KD future at 60-1? Long story I get spooked and bet $20 to win.

Meanwhile, he made Chancer look like me chasing him down the stretch.

Ive felt that pain Madison

[JBEX]

by army mule..oak R2 #1 razorback army (12-1) @ 2:03 ..did nothing @ 48-1 in his 2yo debut @ laurel last start ..trainer change,gelded,drop and lasix added ..may not matter as he cost less than a used car with 200k miles on it lol..chance it will be an off track by forecast

[str]

by army mule..oak R2 #1 razorback army (12-1) @ 2:03 ..did nothing @ 48-1 in his 2yo debut @ laurel last start ..trainer change,gelded,drop and lasix added ..may not matter as he cost less than a used car with 200k miles on it lol..chance it will be an off track by forecast

I think this one actually has a chance with the big drop down, lasix, gelded, Ark. bred etc.
Typically., when you see this much adjustment, the trainer is on a mission to get results quickly.

That low a price at auction usually means a crooked leg or confirmation flaw but it can’t measure heart and AM,s seem to have them.
This should be interesting.

[JBEX]

I think this one actually has a chance with the big drop down, lasix, gelded, Ark. bred etc.
Typically., when you see this much adjustment, the trainer is on a mission to get results quickly.

That low a price at auction usually means a crooked leg or confirmation flaw but it can’t measure heart and AM,s seem to have them.
This should be interesting.

plus a 5lb bug who's one of the better ones i believe..also interesting that ark breds are up for a higher tag ..little perk for the locals

it is a muddy track now but AM's handle that well




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[str]

plus a 5lb bug who's one of the better ones i believe..also interesting that ark breds are up for a higher tag ..little perk for the locals

it is a muddy track now but AM's handle that well




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I saw the claiming price difference. Not a bad idea. I think I like it.

And if that bug is a leading rider type, getting that bug’s services might require a positive story told to the agent. Interesting.

[JBEX]

I saw the claiming price difference. Not a bad idea. I think I like it.

And if that bug is a leading rider type, getting that bug’s services might require a positive story told to the agent. Interesting.

usefull effort and certainly gave him some foundation..wouldn't be surprised if there's improvement over his next few starts



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[JBEX]

usefull effort and certainly gave him some foundation..wouldn't be surprised if there's improvement over his next few starts



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interesting thing ..even bottom of the barrel horses at oaklawn (because it's a top level track)who show some ability have a life at places like canterbury, prarie meadows, oklahoma and texas tracks etc..he's not there yet but just pointing out there are other paths if he can't get it done




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[str]

interesting thing ..even bottom of the barrel horses at oaklawn (because it's a top level track)who show some ability have a life at places like canterbury, prarie meadows, oklahoma and texas tracks etc..he's not there yet but just pointing out there are other paths if he can't get it done




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They sure do JBEX. Class relief to a lesser track can really make a slow horse fast in a hurry. That one yesterday has plenty of wins in it. Just find the spot and let her shine.

Meanwhile:

It's been over two weeks and no Wisconsin Gal. I figuring they might be breeding her in Ky. while passing through to the next 800 mile away track to run at and be 40-1. And she will be most likely 5th beaten about 6 lengths while running her heart out.

Guess I'm being a jerk this morning. But I really do like that horse a lot. She must be so cool to be around.

[JBEX]

They sure do JBEX. Class relief to a lesser track can really make a slow horse fast in a hurry. That one yesterday has plenty of wins in it. Just find the spot and let her shine.

Meanwhile:

It's been over two weeks and no Wisconsin Gal. I figuring they might be breeding her in Ky. while passing through to the next 800 mile away track to run at and be 40-1. And she will be most likely 5th beaten about 6 lengths while running her heart out.

Guess I'm being a jerk this morning. But I really do like that horse a lot. She must be so cool to be around.

never know with those connections lol .. I'm predicting they do the right thing ..1-2 month rest and as I've stated before believe a high tag n2l claimer is where she belongs..at the big tracks they have a very nice purse relative to that type of race ..if she's taken ,which I think there's a good chance she wouldn't be , imo they'll have done well with the horse for what they paid..guess taking a shot at an allowance race isn't ridiculous but have a hunch oak and kee at that level are going to be over her head ..especially the latter

be interesting to see where she winds up..any opinion ,if she's ok, just by the pp's where she should run ?



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[JBEX]

never know with those connections lol .. I'm predicting they do the right thing ..1-2 month rest and as I've stated before believe a high tag n2l claimer is where she belongs..at the big tracks they have a very nice purse relative to that type of race ..if she's taken ,which I think there's a good chance she wouldn't be , imo they'll have done well with the horse for what they paid..guess taking a shot at an allowance race isn't ridiculous but have a hunch oak and kee at that level are going to be over her head ..especially the latter

be interesting to see where she winds up..any opinion ,if she's ok, just by the pp's where she should run ?



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the main reason I lack confidence with an allowance race for her,which I've said before, is her msw win was vs restricted (max auction price) company




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[str]

never know with those connections lol .. I'm predicting they do the right thing ..1-2 month rest and as I've stated before believe a high tag n2l claimer is where she belongs..at the big tracks they have a very nice purse relative to that type of race ..if she's taken ,which I think there's a good chance she wouldn't be , imo they'll have done well with the horse for what they paid..guess taking a shot at an allowance race isn't ridiculous but have a hunch oak and kee at that level are going to be over her head ..especially the latter

be interesting to see where she winds up..any opinion ,if she's ok, just by the pp's where she should run ?



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Non Winners of 2 for 62,500 at Laurel on March 28th going 6F.


But I would have already been there with her.

I would worm her, check her bloodwork for any deficiency's and correct it if it is not perfect ,check/float or fix her teeth, line up her shoeing for around the 20th, stand her and back out of the gate a few times to help the gate crew get to know her, and her them, make sure she is eating every morning, make her as happy as I can along with making sure she is 100% sound and if not Fix whatever the minor problem might be prior to, make sure she gets to graze on grass for 20 minutes daily when it is quiet.
I would get a first call on the best rider I could get, have that rider work her twice, set up both works to have her finish up, win and gain that winning confidence ( much like you see with some of Batt's videos,) and overall, just let her know how special she really is. Don't think they don't get that memo, they do. Have the pony walk with her some mornings so when they get together on race day, she is familiar with that pony and rider.
That should be more than enough to get her into the winners circle on the 28th.

It ain't rocket science JBEX. Just attention to detail. And after she wins, send her to the farm to the guy that takes care of Batt's horses and let her have 3 weeks off . Then... rinse and repeat the same routine in an A other than. She would most likely win that as well, off what had transpired. Then... 2 other than and after that a stake that is not graded or at Saratoga. Something very reasonable. Off three wins, she is live there.
Then.... mic drop. Lol.


Seriously, This stuff is easy on paper but in real life, it is one day at a time. Some common sense and a lot of luck.

Now I will hang my stopwatch back up on my office wall.

[JBEX]

Non Winners of 2 for 62,500 at Laurel on March 28th going 6F.


But I would have already been there with her.

I would worm her, check her bloodwork for any deficiency's and correct it if it is not perfect ,check/float or fix her teeth, line up her shoeing for around the 20th, stand her and back out of the gate a few times to help the gate crew get to know her, and her them, make sure she is eating every morning, make her as happy as I can along with making sure she is 100% sound and if not Fix whatever the minor problem might be prior to, make sure she gets to graze on grass for 20 minutes daily when it is quiet.
I would get a first call on the best rider I could get, have that rider work her twice, set up both works to have her finish up, win and gain that winning confidence ( much like you see with some of Batt's videos,) and overall, just let her know how special she really is. Don't think they don't get that memo, they do. Have the pony walk with her some mornings so when they get together on race day, she is familiar with that pony and rider.
That should be more than enough to get her into the winners circle on the 28th.

It ain't rocket science JBEX. Just attention to detail. And after she wins, send her to the farm to the guy that takes care of Batt's horses and let her have 3 weeks off . Then... rinse and repeat the same routine in an A other than. She would most likely win that as well, off what had transpired. Then... 2 other than and after that a stake that is not graded or at Saratoga. Something very reasonable. Off three wins, she is live there.
Then.... mic drop. Lol.


Seriously, This stuff is easy on paper but in real life, it is one day at a time. Some common sense and a lot of luck.

Now I will hang my stopwatch back up on my office wall.

amazing to the novice how much goes into getting a horse to perform at there best and cool to get a glimpse of it like you gave ..guess it's a natural thing fir you to see a young horse who shows a lot of potential but appears not to be spotted right or have races spaced optimally ... especially if the sire's army mule ..sure you would get the most out of her and probably as a young 3yo be an exciting prospect to work with .. you see lots of upside potential and feel it's not out of the question she could return to listed stakes races again ..pretty cool

spot at laurel would be perfect and get a little extra protection at a $65k tag..in addition allowance races at laurel probably more in her range vs the ones in arkansas or ky so there'd be a good path to follow .. if you got a horse like that via claim or just a trainer change seems like a challenge you would've relished to take on back when you were active

[Madison]

He really took off down the stretch when he finally changed leads.... looked like the jockey and him were fighting at the top of the stretch.

Kind of agree, but only 3rd start, plus 2nd back after a long layoff. I'll defer to our mentor/master to critique.

[JBEX]

by army mule .. gulfstream R4 #6 human desire (3-1) @ 2:26