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louisiana deby
saturday R12 @ 6:42
need yinzer (12-1) or furio ( 12-1) to press john hancock (7-2) ..like caldera's (5-1) chances then with a stalking trip..that tiznow influence on the bottom couldn't hurt with the added distance
my other is built (4-1) ..exits that fast risen star stakes which produced the virginia derby winner american promise (batt had him) .. like his whole body of work besidesComment -
california burrito (by army mule) will be going in turfway's final derby prep ,the jeff ruby stakes on saturday..post is 6:25 which is about 20 minutes before the la derby so lots to root for in that time span .. going to look at this race closer to the weekend
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More on the competition:
#1 Condone: Makes her 5-year-old debut following a winless 2024 campaign. Finished seventh in her most recent start, which came at the level, while also earning a career-best 74 Beyer figure. Longshot against this group.
#2 Lady of Power: Was a winner against maiden special weight company over the track in her most recent start, earning a 68 Beyer. Couple that with the fact that the barn boasts a 25% win rate at the meet, and she has to be respected in here.
#4 Take Shape: Has been beaten by over 70 combined lengths in her two most recent starts— granted she was likely not 100% as she was sent to the bench after her most recent start in October of last year. This filly does seem to like the Turfway Park surface, having won twice from three starts at the track. Not sure what to make of her, but has to be a positive that she returns here protected (no claiming tag) and world-class rider Frankie Dettori will be in the saddle.
#5 Kara and Colleen: Comes in off a more than six-month break following a one-win 2024 campaign. Her best form came back in 2023. Will be interesting to see how she performs in here, but this is not the easiest spot for this one.
#6 Little Dixie: Comes into this race after almost a year layoff. Both the distance and the competition will be a stiff ask.
#7 Egyptian Candy: The class of this group making her second start off of a layoff. Boasts some back class having faced graded stakes company in the past. Her career high 76 Beyer figure could best this group.
#8 Missy Bee: Has been on the board in her four most recent starts, all of which came in the claiming ranks. Steps up in here and will certainly face a class test, but she is in good form.
#9 Montego Bay: Stretches out to two turns following a fourth at the same level at a sprint distance. Should appreciate the stretch out in ground, but will have to improve in the figures department to compete in this field.
#10 Hold My Halo: Was an 11 1/4-length winner at the $30,000 maiden-claiming level most recently when she was able to walk the dog on the lead. Will not have as easy of a trip given the stiffer competition and the outside post.
#11 Birdie Rose: Has been competitive when facing claiming company, but has tried and failed when facing allowance types on a few occasions. Has a tough post for a horse that likes to be forwardly placed early.
#12 Dream on Stormy: Has been well beaten against first-level allowance company in her four most recent starts, and will likely be a a longshot in here.
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I like his chances here batt..hopefully birdie rose and take shape hook up and you sit a nice trip .. the way he ran in that sprint 2 back is a nice set up for stretching out imo so I give that one extra credit vs just needing a race off the layoff ..love the sire/ dam sire combo for artificial because both of them can get a really good horse on turf or dirtComment -
I think she is live in there as well Batt. Agree with getting an honest pace early and allowing her to settle and finish.
I would like to see the 2 AE’s not draw in.
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by army mule..fairgrounds R3 #1 flick (6-1)
@ 2:45
first time starter..
army mule and the dam's sire both speed influences..rail at fairgrounds is very good and a very unexceptional field imo
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as for the by army mule , california burrito (#3 @ 7-2) in the jeff ruby stakes at turfway on saturday (their final derby prep race) I have no opinion and will just be rooting..be really nice to have one running in the ky derby for the first time..even a 3rd place finish would probably give him enough points but in that scenario might depend on the type of race he runs
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so there were some signs of life and of course must factor in the break..I liked the speed pedigree on the bottom but the trainer isn't good first out and works were not exactly fast .. possibly needed one and a good follow up horse as surely be some value to be had next out
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yup..well one of the advantages of following is you look at things more closely afterwards ..what's interesting about a sire at AM stage is you'll get a wide sampling of runners but at the same time not enough to be an overwhelming task to keep track of ..this sire's offspring you'll always give at minimum a few shots to see if the horse is a runnerComment -
by army mule ..friday oak R7 #2 airborne elite (15-1) @ 4:56
imo one of the most interesting AM pp's we've looked at..one thing sticks out right away which you'll see immediately but I see a few others besides ..come back more to it later or tomorrow
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some updates on my other horses... boy I sure do miss early training hours watching horses grow up STR.....
Munny Problem Update
Munny Problem continues to progress in his training at Wavertree Stables and is expected to breeze in the coming days. We had the opportunity to check in on your colt this past week while in Ocala for the OBS March sale. He’s a big, strong colt that carries plenty of flesh, which is common for offspring of Munnings. With additional training, he should continue to shape up physically.
We will hopefully have video of his breeze this week and will follow up with that content later this week.
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Isle Blue Update
Isle Blue received the green light to start back up in training at Two Springs in Ocala after receiving 60 days from her surgery. She is in her first week of jogging and hopefully it will be smooth sailing from here on out for your daughter of Speightstown.
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Hope this comes through...
Louisiana Derby Video Preview
Nick Hines, Joe Moran and Brian DiDonato sat down earlier this week to take a closer look at Saturday’s G2 Louisiana Derby. They discuss Caldera in depth, plus go through the rest of the field horse by horse.
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would have quote boxed you also batt
" Thanks! hopefully I will have time to delve a litter deeper! "
but still can't do multiples
popular at the claim box ..last 3 and 1 other time in only 8 starts..even effort in debut as a 3yo fine and I think the slow break from the rail/even effort (towards the back) vs the tough msw turf sprint at churchill set him up nice for the dominant mcl win at kee in start 3 .. then close to the front at quarter, falls back and comes again in the stretch to finish 3rd
off for almost a year .. can understand the winter but guess must have been some issue(s) ? starting at 2nd layoff all good efforts..close 3rd,2nd and slow start troubled trip in his last .. still ran a respectable mid- pack race in spite of this
this is a talented, lightly raced horse who is in the hands of a very solid trainer and don't think he's overmatched here .. under the race conditions he's not up for sale and off his dominant performance at kee last year think there's a good chance he'll be running there in his next start
..that meet opens 2 weeks from today
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by army mule .. saturday
about 50 mins between first 3 ..long intermission and 55 minutes between last 2
turfway R2 @ 1:13
#3 top (15-1)
fairgrounds R3 @ 2pm
#3 shewon'tbudge (4-1)
gulfstream R5 @ 2:50
#5 bel pensiero (4-1)
intermission
aqueduct R9 @ 5:30
#8 shadow dragon (9-2)
turfway R12 jeff ruby @ 6:25
#3 california burrito (7-2)Comment -
Black Tie Optional Breeze Report
Black Tie Optional breezed inside of fellow MyRacehorse juvenile colt Native Brew yesterday morning at Wavertree Stables—check out the accompanying video. Both colts looked good and showed some nice determination down the lane.
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I have probably missed something in here along the way so if I did, and anyone was waiting on me with something in particular , please let me know.
Business has been going nuts the past week or two. Typical as everybody thinks alike in construction, remodeling, etc. but I have to admit that the new SBR format has made this harder for me. I know that sounds pathetic, and I wish it was not so but it is incredible how changing technology in everything makes it harder for people my age to do what seemed effortless before. I will get there, but... it's a climb for now.
I looked a couple of days ago at the Sweet Voyage race. I did not see anyone that bothered me that much in the way of competition although I recall thinking the AE's seemed tough in my view and hope they do not draw in, but I think this race is all about her, Sweet Voyage. She showed nice potential in that last race. If it was a one and done, she probably runs kind of even today and finds her level. But if she responds today like she did last time, no reason to think she does not run very well. I rarely say something like, "she will win" because that is just not reality in horse racing. But I will say that if she repeats that last effort, it will take an above average effort from someone else to outrun her. I this game, that is how it works.
I type this not even clear if she runs today or maybe ran yesterday. Again, so busy I just lost track of some stuff. But I'm here all day today and will try to get up to speed with the AM's that are running as well as all the others.
I appreciate the heads up and alerts as to who is running you guys. Thanks.Comment
