Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

I have probably missed something in here along the way so if I did, and anyone was waiting on me with something in particular , please let me know.

Business has been going nuts the past week or two. Typical as everybody thinks alike in construction, remodeling, etc. but I have to admit that the new SBR format has made this harder for me. I know that sounds pathetic, and I wish it was not so but it is incredible how changing technology in everything makes it harder for people my age to do what seemed effortless before. I will get there, but... it's a climb for now.

I looked a couple of days ago at the Sweet Voyage race. I did not see anyone that bothered me that much in the way of competition although I recall thinking the AE's seemed tough in my view and hope they do not draw in, but I think this race is all about her, Sweet Voyage. She showed nice potential in that last race. If it was a one and done, she probably runs kind of even today and finds her level. But if she responds today like she did last time, no reason to think she does not run very well. I rarely say something like, "she will win" because that is just not reality in horse racing. But I will say that if she repeats that last effort, it will take an above average effort from someone else to outrun her. I this game, that is how it works.

I type this not even clear if she runs today or maybe ran yesterday. Again, so busy I just lost track of some stuff. But I'm here all day today and will try to get up to speed with the AM's that are running as well as all the others.

I appreciate the heads up and alerts as to who is running you guys. Thanks.

only thing I still can't do is multiple quotes but otherwise I'm pretty good..still room for improvement on the finer details for sure

on the army mule's today

brad cox's shewon'tbudge (4-1) is an expensive first time starter and as you know he's one of the best at that..few other expensive ones also

bel pensiero (9-2)..turf sprinter and consistent as they come

california burrito (7-2) ..won the 2nd leg of this series last out ... a top 2 or possibly good 3rd and probably derby bound

top (15-1) ..2 sprints to a route and 3rd career start ..priced about right


shadow dragon (9-2) .. doesn't interest me as a betting proposition..just rooting


quite honestly in some ways I think handicapping these army mules is not the way to go about it ..let it happen (or not) on it's own .. my only exception to that would be after reviewing trips ..that's just me and not knocking if you or batt feel differently

[batt33]

I totally understand with the new website design STR... I'm still working on figuring things out also.

Glad business is good!


Remember Caldera (race 12 fairgrounds) races today as well as sweet voyage(race 5 Turfway) As far as sweet voyage these kinds of races seem to bring in longshots at Turfway with trainers moving their horses up and down the levels. I hope she runs well crossing my fingers!

Oh yeah California burrito(army mule) race 12 Turfway park.

[JBEX]

by army mule .. saturday

about 50 mins between first 3 ..long intermission and 55 minutes between last 2


turfway R2 @ 1:13
#3 top (15-1)

fairgrounds R3 @ 2pm
#3 shewon'tbudge (4-1)

gulfstream R5 @ 2:50
#5 bel pensiero (4-1)


intermission



aqueduct R9 @ 5:30
#8 shadow dragon (9-2)

turfway R12 jeff ruby @ 6:25
#3 california burrito (7-2)

just forwarding

[Madison]

I totally understand with the new website design STR... I'm still working on figuring things out also.

Glad business is good!


Remember Caldera races today! As far as sweet voyage these kinds of races seem to bring in longshots at Turfway with trainers moving their horses up and down the levels. I hope she runs well crossing my fingers!

Beware #9 Poster

[batt33]

I totally understand with the new website design STR... I'm still working on figuring things out also.

Glad business is good!


Remember Caldera races today! As far as sweet voyage these kinds of races seem to bring in longshots at Turfway with trainers moving their horses up and down the levels. I hope she runs well crossing my fingers!

Sweet voyage was up there for awhile just got tired at the end...Like I said these kinds of races bring longshots...

[batt33]

just forwarding

Thanks! been busy ... had to catch up... played the 5 at Gulfstream.. didn't watch the first 2 races

[Madison]

FG R11 , Think #9 Quickick runs big today.

[batt33]

FG R11 , Think #9 Quickick runs big today.

I will take a look!

[Madison]

I'm just in a bad funk. I had FG R5 English Chunnel. Thursday. Was 4th choice at 4-1 and I just passed. Wins pays 23.80. Liked today AQ R4 Radauti ML 2-1, goes off 1-1 and loses by a head to a first timer.

Later today Quickick, Poster, and John Hancock.

[batt33]

Black Tie Optional Breeze Report

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/NativeBrewSpanxamillion2023YauponBayBlackTieOptionalStylishly2023NotThisTimeChestnut032025_1742563258570/MP4/NativeBrewSpanxamillion2023YauponBayBlackTieOptionalStylishly2023NotThisTimeChestnut032025_1742563258570.mp4

Black Tie Optional breezed inside of fellow MyRacehorse juvenile colt Native Brew yesterday morning at Wavertree Stables—check out the accompanying video. Both colts looked good and showed some nice determination down the lane.

[Madison]

I will take a look!

Unfortunately has Good Cheer.

[JBEX]

Thanks! been busy ... had to catch up... played the 5 at Gulfstream.. didn't watch the first 2 races

top (turfway) pressed the pace gave it up a little before the 6f mark and finished far back at 29-1..have a hunch they might cutback to a sprint off of that as she'll have some bottom from this race

shewon'tbudge (fairgrounds) was 4th by 2+L and < 1 length off the place horse @ 7-2 ..very professional effort and she will probably get it done within her next two starts


you saw bel pensiero saved ground on the turn .. real bulldog dealing with the 8 on her outside in the stretch; persevered and won going away coming from between horses

[JBEX]

since we'll be rooting for cal burrito in the jeff ruby stakes R12 @ turfway I'll put a pick for the filly version (race before) in here

R11 bourbonette oaks @ 5:43

#1 resolve (8-1)




.

[batt33]

top (turfway) pressed the pace gave it up a little before the 6f mark and finished far back at 29-1..have a hunch they might cutback to a sprint off of that as she'll have some bottom from this race

shewon'tbudge (fairgrounds) was 4th by 2+L and < 1 length off the place horse # 7-2 ..very professional effort and she will probably get it done within her next two starts


you saw bel pensiero saved ground on the turn .. real bulldog dealing with the 8 on her outside in the stretch; persevered and won going away coming from between horses

not going to lie I would have bet flat on a army mule horse

[JBEX]

since we'll be rooting for cal burrito in the jeff ruby stakes R12 @ turfway I'll put a pick for the filly version (race before) in here

R11 bourbonette oaks @ 5:43

#1 resolve (8-1)




.

try one also in the filly version at fairgrounds (precedes the la derby) where we'll be rooting for caldera

R11 fg oaks @ 6:08

#1 girl math (12-1)



.

[JBEX]

not going to lie I would have bet flat on a army mule horse

think you have to account for the odds ..imo bombs like "top" at turfway about a 3rd of the lower odds ones divided amongst WP

[Madison]

FG R11 , Think #9 Quickick runs big today.

Way I'm going, horse bolts the gate and sports the field 10.

[JBEX]

looked like cal burrito took a bad step or jumped a shadow in the stretch

[batt33]

looked like cal burrito took a bad step or jumped a shadow in the stretch

ugh yeah I saw that... reminds my of " just steele" in the preakness

[batt33]

caldera through in clunker..... just don't believe he liked Tyler and a more aggressive ride.... I think rafi fit him better...

[JBEX]

ugh yeah I saw that... reminds my of " just steele" in the preakness

looked like just before the eighth pole there were tracks across the track and it spooked him

[JBEX]

by army mule..sunday
lots of bombers




fairgrounds 5 @ 3:45
#10 hope restored (12-1)

tampa 9 @ 4:35
#6 hymn of heaven (20-1)


gulfstream 9 @ 4:50
#4 grade a (9-2)

oaklawn 9 @ 6pm
#1 razorback army (10-1)

[str]

I totally understand with the new website design STR... I'm still working on figuring things out also.

Glad business is good!


Remember Caldera races today! As far as sweet voyage these kinds of races seem to bring in longshots at Turfway with trainers moving their horses up and down the levels. I hope she runs well crossing my fingers!

Caldara had a really rough first 1/4 mile which pretty much set the tome for the race IMO. He stumbled badly at the start as he kind of hopped out then stumbled and then pinched on both siders.. Hope he didn't grab his quarter there. Boy does that hurt for a little while. Almost think he had to but hopefully not. As I just said, as soon as he gathers himself, he is pinched by both horse to his left and right. Then checked, then wants to run off, then checked again as he tries to run off past the 1/16th pole and before the wire the 1st time. That in itself is a bunch to overcome, especially for a 3 yr. old still learning. Usually too much.
He settled some and was maybe ok down the backside but when the rider had to ask to keep up with the 2 horse into the turn, he just was not there.
When you take these big steps in quality competition and things go wrong, it only looks worse when more talent than he has run against who DID have thing just fine early run on . I think the rider did the right thing and after asking around the turn, he just folded up and finished without more pressure. It is hard to watch at the time, but after the fact, it is better for the horse.

So this was a hope and a push to see if he could make the Derby. Now, if those plans are aborted, he can get back to feeling good about himself, and maybe get a slight bit of class relief which should help him get back on track with positive vibes and results.

He has talent Batt. But Caldera needs to feel he does as well as us see it. That can happen. Just takes time and some luck along the way. When he runs back, II have to think he will show much better.


Sweet Voyage tried hard. She had a decent position early, and seemed to get a nice breather all alone further down the backside. She kicked when asked it looked like , around the turn. I thought she might be right there 1/2 way around the turn but it looked like she got tired quickly as they turned for home. She kind of went from a pull to a drive in two strides. She was aware of that as she was late switching back to her right lead. That can be simply the horse thinking about something else ( breathing or tired, whatever) but something disrupted her race flow it seemed.
It looked like she just lost her air flow or lung capacity there. Scoping might answer that question if they did it after the race. IMO, when they go from a pull to a drive in two strides, it is either mental, like a distraction, or physical, like breathing pattern changing . A look into the airway would help answer if that existed or not.
Either way, if that can be attended to, this is a perfect time to find class relief in that, if she can sustain through the lane, and we saw her do that when she broke her maiden, she can improve a lot in her next start. Kind of depends on what actually happened, and if that can be addressed so it does not happen again. If so, her next start, with a little class drop should be much much better. Hope that makes sense.

Bottom line on both is they are in a situation now for both to run big when they come back. Just have to clean a few things up Batt.

They will.

[str]

looked like cal burrito took a bad step or jumped a shadow in the stretch

This horse jumped the area where the gate was and the dirt was disturbed. I don't know if he had enough to finish and win. I think maybe not, but, he would have been much closer. When he jumped, he landed back on his left lead, which was tired, then switched but he was too busy thinking about what had happened. His mental was gone and so was the race.

One other thing. I have no idea what the jockey was doing just before the break. It looked like his right foot came out of the iron just as they broke. That made for a crummy break and startled the horse a bit. I would have had to ask the rider what the heck that was. It certainly did not help.
Let's see if he wears a shadow roll in his next race. That will help and probably get him back to the winners circle. This could very well be a play back next out. Keep an eye on the Burrito man.

[JBEX]

This horse jumped the area where the gate was and the dirt was disturbed. I don't know if he had enough to finish and win. I think maybe not, but, he would have been much closer. When he jumped, he landed back on his left lead, which was tired, then switched but he was too busy thinking about what had happened. His mental was gone and so was the race.

One other thing. I have no idea what the jockey was doing just before the break. It looked like his right foot came out of the iron just as they broke. That made for a crummy break and startled the horse a bit. I would have had to ask the rider what the heck that was. It certainly did not help.
Let's see if he wears a shadow roll in his next race. That will help and probably get him back to the winners circle. This could very well be a play back next out. Keep an eye on the Burrito man.

great insight str and wouldn't have gotten what those marks were..looked so darn good coming into the stretch but I agree that he wouldn't have beaten the winner but with the upset you say it caused him possibly could have finished in the money..real shame that had to happen but certainly this and the last race provided some thrills ! I agree that a less ambitious spot probably the best move next out ..can understand why a shadow roll would help also ..imagine that would block some of his downward vision so he might not have seen those marks

that winner looks like a serious horse and bred to run all day and tons of class sire and broodmare sire combo (another tapit dam sire like garamond,kingsbarns).."not this this time"around the same fee as uncle mo ..get a few starts in them where they display some talent and a huge jump forward always possible ..hoping that's the case if garamond goes in the wood memorial


thought it was a great showing overall for the 5 army mule's with bel pensiero and shadow dragon winning .. the brad cox firster ran a really nice 4th and only a matter of time till he gets it done .. maybe the early turfway horse top will be in a good position to cut back off that race .. think it might give him some bottom in a sprint next out


real sorry to see caldera lose batt..with liam's map ,the significance of his name(which we discussed)the sire future and of course you having shares through myracehorse would've been a fun horse to continue on with ..hopefully he's ok and as he gets more experience becomes a nice horse

[batt33]

Thanks STR and JBEX, Yes disappointed for sure..... Just shows how hard the game is. And you were right STR he did grab a quarter.
Caldera Follow Up



The Lukas barn reports that Caldera appears thus far to have exited yesterday’s race in pretty good order. He did grab a quarter (when a horse’s back foot clips the heel area of their front foot)—most likely coming out of the gate—but scoped clean and jogged sound. He is on his way back to Oaklawn now.

Consensus among both Team Lukas and our racing team is that Caldera is still a somewhat immature horse mentally and the rough start was just more than he could overcome. He also didn’t seem to handle the track particularly well.

We’ll let him get back to Arkansas and see how he returns to training. We wouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to bring him back in another Derby prep, but will let The Coach make that determination after observing him for a bit.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: want to get your professional opinion on AQ R9 today. The horse in question is the #3 First Pitch. He wired the field at 9 panels and scored at 50/1. You can access the form thru Speightster. He did nothing first 2 starts. The trainer put the shades back on after taking them off his 2nd start. His works seemed to improve recently. I know you have said many times the shades can make a big difference. Would you have considered the recent works(as indication that he would run well) if you were handicapping the race? THX.

[JBEX]

by army mule..sunday
lots of bombers

fairgrounds 5 @ 3:45
#10 hope restored (12-1)

tampa 9 @ 4:35
#6 hymn of heaven (20-1)


gulfstream 9 @ 4:50
#4 grade a (9-2)

oaklawn 9 @ 6pm
#1 razorback army (10-1)

fg R5 .. last all the way around @ 35-1

oak R9 .. battled on the inside to stretch call and finished well out of the money @ 11-1 ..2nd consecutive race on the rail in a big field so hopefully will get a better post next out (considering it was only his 3rd career start) ..very inexpensive horse to start with so may eventually need softer company at a lesser track


gulfstream R9 ..scratched


tampa R9..broke maiden in her first career start (today) .. was a turf route and that's always an impressive feat ..paid $21

[JBEX]

by army mule .. mon mahoning R3 @ 1:11
#6 holidays army brat (2-1)

[batt33]

fg R5 .. last all the way around @ 35-1

oak R9 .. battled on the inside to stretch call and finished well out of the money @ 11-1 ..2nd consecutive race on the rail in a big field so hopefully will get a better post next out (considering it was only his 3rd career start) ..very inexpensive horse to start with so may eventually need softer company at a lesser track


gulfstream R9 ..scratched


tampa R9..broke maiden in her first career start (today) .. was a turf route and that's always an impressive feat ..paid $21

Hymn of Heaven was the half to Timberlake....that Ive been tracking ....until today

[Easy-Rider 66]

Following a scary incident at the top of the stretch in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park March 22, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. was happy to report California Burrito emerged from the race in good order. "We're so blessed that everything's fine," Drury Jr. said March 23. "The good news is, as of this morning, he looks to be very sound. He was quiet—he ran hard and was tired—but absolutely nothing out of the ordinary."


Drury Jr. said after conversations with the colt's apprentice rider, Irving Moncada, that they believe the incident was caused by California Burrito spooking at tire tracks left over from the starting gate's removal. "He had locked onto the tire track well before he got to it. Anybody that's ridden horses; you can feel them sucking back on you," Drury Jr. said. "(Moncada) said all of a sudden the head came up and (California Burrito) just kind of shut off. When he got to the tire tracks, he couldn't decide if he wanted to jump it or duck away from it. He ended up just kind of halfway stumbling over it." Once the incident occurred, the race was lost and Moncada started to ease up on his mount and make sure the colt made it back safe, a move Drury Jr. praised. "This is where Irving is a little bit ahead of his ti

[str]

Following a scary incident at the top of the stretch in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park March 22, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. was happy to report California Burrito emerged from the race in good order. "We're so blessed that everything's fine," Drury Jr. said March 23. "The good news is, as of this morning, he looks to be very sound. He was quiet—he ran hard and was tired—but absolutely nothing out of the ordinary."


Drury Jr. said after conversations with the colt's apprentice rider, Irving Moncada, that they believe the incident was caused by California Burrito spooking at tire tracks left over from the starting gate's removal. "He had locked onto the tire track well before he got to it. Anybody that's ridden horses; you can feel them sucking back on you," Drury Jr. said. "(Moncada) said all of a sudden the head came up and (California Burrito) just kind of shut off. When he got to the tire tracks, he couldn't decide if he wanted to jump it or duck away from it. He ended up just kind of halfway stumbling over it." Once the incident occurred, the race was lost and Moncada started to ease up on his mount and make sure the colt made it back safe, a move Drury Jr. praised. "This is where Irving is a little bit ahead of his ti

Real good news here EZ. If you look at your picture with your name here you can see that the horse jumping is kind of curled up with his neck and head. When any horse jumps, that is exactly what they do to be able to, as well as throw all their weight to the back portion of their body. You must slow down to be able to do that . It's almost like they are hesitating FOR a second while they coil themselves.
And if they are thinking, something I elude to often while watching these replays, it directly affects there stride and focus. That's what happened in that race.

Appreciate the update EZ.

[str]

Hey STR: want to get your professional opinion on AQ R9 today. The horse in question is the #3 First Pitch. He wired the field at 9 panels and scored at 50/1. You can access the form thru Speightster. He did nothing first 2 starts. The trainer put the shades back on after taking them off his 2nd start. His works seemed to improve recently. I know you have said many times the shades can make a big difference. Would you have considered the recent works if you were looking over the form before the race? THX.

Well, you know from our conversations EZ , that blinkers ON, and the improved recent works,, especially that gate work is something I really put stock in.. There is little doubt he wore blinkers for that work out of the gate, and 48 flat is a nice move from the gate. Also remember, in almost all instances, a gate work should be a little quicker than you might think because THE CLOCKERS DO NOT CLOCK IT FROM THE GATE. They hear the bell, realize a horse is working from the gate, pick up the timing from one 16th of a mile later and add 7 seconds. So they clock 3 1/2 furlongs and add 7 seconds to get the 1/2 mile time. The clockers cannot focus on the gate for 2-3 minutes waiting to clock the moment the horse leaves because they will most likely miss a couple other workers break off poles at various spots.
So while most works are at a running start. Gate works are from a stand still. That is why they add 7 seconds instead of maybe 6 seconds. Hope that part makes sense.
So a 48 from the gate is actually faster than a 48 from the pole because the pole horse ran into the pole while the gate worker started at a standstill.

All that said, if I had done this race, this horse would have survived my first cut and certainly made it to the 2nd round of viewing all the horses. Depending on the rest of the field, I then would have placed this horse in my head as possible speed or position based on blinkers on. Once I decided on the basic shape of speed, stalk, close, I cannot say I would have had this horse still in consideration late but most handicappers probably dismissed this one immediately and there is no way I would have.

When I looked at the pp's and did what I would have done, which you are familiar with, I would have found the 1,2,4, and maybe 6 as possible speeds. The common theme between them all is that none of them are very solid at all. I see no real threat as a closer in here at all. They are plodders, which these 1 1/8th maidens are most of the time.

So this horse would have survived until the final 4 horses were more scrutinized. The blinkers ON and the very nice and better than before works would have allowed me to not throw the 3 out most likely.
Then I would have had to settle on who I thought could finish up. I cannot possibly say that I would have used this horse. I don't know what I would have concluded. But looking again at the closers and having no use for the speeds, there is at least some chance I would have made a small ,play on this horse simply because the field was terrible, he was blinkers on, and had improved works, especially that gate work which was 12 /183 and the latest work 5/154.
But being totally honest EZ, while I could have maybe landed on a small win bet on this horse, it would have been for the fact that this field was terrible . AND, I cannot see how I would have concluded that he would go wire to wire. No way. I would have bet him thinking maybe he can lay 4th or 5th to very slow horses 4 or 5 lengths off the lead held by the slow, weak speeds, and blinkers ON maybe gets him running late and out finishing the slow plodders.

So that would have been on of those races where you look really sharp but you know in your head you were just taking a shot on the works and blks. on and against a terrible field, and it worked.

Does that make sense EZ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ THX STR your take makes sense. 50/1 shots don't happen too often and there is a reason for that. LOL. I figured with shades on and improved works (and trainer good with blinks back on) it was worth a shot at those odds. THX again.

[Easy-Rider 66]

nvm wrong thread my bad