Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: a question about a horse breaking thru the gate and running off. Tonight at Penn R6 the 1.70 favorite (#8)broke thru and ran off. they corralled her, deemed her fit to run and off she went with the rest. She did not do much. Don't you think a horse in that situation should be scratched. Very rarely do I see a horse break thru and wander off and then run well. It's a really bad deal IMO. Your take? thx in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: a question about a horse breaking thru the gate and running off. Tonight at Penn R6 the 1.70 favorite (#8)broke thru and ran off. they corralled her, deemed her fit to run and off she went with the rest. She did not do much. Don't you think a horse in that situation should be scratched. Very rarely do I see a horse break thru and wander off and then run well. It's a really bad deal IMO. Your take? thx in advance.

It's as bad a feeling as when your horse dumps the rider leaving the gate. It is simply an awful feeling. And where there is no hope if you lose the rider, there is extremely little when you break through the gate prematurely. Mainly because the horse used it's head, and or body to hit the steel doors at a rate high enough to break the grip the doors had when closed. And man, you should feel those doors. Cold steel and heavy as hell. They would knock a human out if they went in head first.

Way back in what feels like a lifetime ago, I was on the horseman's board in Md. at the ripe old age of about 23. Everyone else was 40's, 50's, 60's or higher. We discussed this exact topic . Not for long though. When I mentioned it , and I actually did, I was basically yelled at by one old prick in particular for even mentioning it as would cost the track handle and that drove purses. And that was BEFORE racing became as sparse with entries as it became in the 80's. Since then, it has only gotten much worse.
Do keep in mind that the public was treated so much worse than today, although there is much more room for improvement. Having bet since I was 15 and trained since I was 20, I along with everyone else had experienced this and knew that we all felt the same way.
Someday you might see a jurisdiction like Saratoga or, I'm not sure who else. Maybe Oaklawn who could afford it, or someone like that, put a scratch and refund rule or post time favorite substitute for multi race exotics in place. It is without question the right thing to do.

But with today's race tracks working to grab each dollar it can due to short fields, pressure to lower handle, higher operating costs and plenty more, I don't think you will see it. I do hope I am wrong.

As it is, at least they scratch horses that flip in the paddock and things like that. That did NOT happen back in the day. That is done in today's racing not to be friendly and fair to customers but because of the liability of the horse hurting someone or other horses and lawsuits killing track ownership. Sadly, it would take a horse and probably more than one, to break early, be put back in the gate , come out running, and killing or maiming other horses or jockey's to get all track management to move on this IMO. And it would not be because they care about the customer. It would become a liability issue that they could not afford to try and work with. Just like the flipping issue became.

Sadly Easy, when it comes to business, and not just racing, the vast majority only care about the dollar. They can say what they want, but actions speak much louder than words . Those businesses that do not think that way, make less and are rarely rewarded for being pro customer. It usually gets overlooked. And if I'm wrong, well, it sure does feel that way too me. I guess it's just an opinion, and it can be spun in any shape a lawyer wants to I suppose but the reason you felt the way you did half way through the race is because you know it's not right and you knew you had no chance. We've all been there.
It should all factor into the overall risk factor and I guess it does, but it feels terrible when it happens to you. It always did to me as a customer and as a trainer.

Sorry man. We all know that stinks when it happens. Best you can do is shake it off, refocus with an attitude and come back swinging.

Hope that helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR THx. the bottom line is what drives it. that's what I figured. To be clear I was playing in SBR Book and did not play the horse in question. I thought though from previous experience the horse had very little chance. I guess it is what it is.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: here is an example of treating the racing public fairly imo. IN NYRA races if a part of the entry is scratched then the other half runs for purse money only. and refunds are given. your thoughts? THx.

[JBEX]

hey str

fairgrounds

R7 #2 may start (12-1)

if you have the time wanted your opinion on the above..it's a very competitive allowance for 3yo fillies and to me almost like a listed stakes..playing the stretchout I like that she broke her maiden at 7f rather than 6 and opened up 3+ lengths in the stretch.. understand it was vs mdn claimers but still I feel an impressive effort ..off slow on a sloppy track at gulfstream race before in her debut..claimed by louis roussel (owner also) last out and gets first lasix..(always remember him from the "risen star" days back in 89)..admittedly don't know if the latter matters much ..has worked nice and steady right up to the race..5lb bug who has had a decent year..its definitely a tough spot but feel they'll be some value to be had with mine because of it

[str]

Hey STR: here is an example of treating the racing public fairly imo. IN NYRA races if a part of the entry is scratched then the other half runs for purse money only. and refunds are given. your thoughts? THx.

This is very fair. It never happened back in the day but a welcome change for customers for sure.

[str]

hey str

fairgrounds

R7 #2 may start (12-1)

if you have the time wanted your opinion on the above..it's a very competitive allowance for 3yo fillies and to me almost like a listed stakes..playing the stretchout I like that she broke her maiden at 7f rather than 6 and opened up 3+ lengths in the stretch.. understand it was vs mdn claimers but still I feel an impressive effort ..off slow on a sloppy track at gulfstream race before in her debut..claimed by louis roussel (owner also) last out and gets first lasix..(always remember him from the "risen star" days back in 89)..admittedly don't know if the latter matters much ..has worked nice and steady right up to the race..5lb bug who has had a decent year..its definitely a tough spot but feel they'll be some value to be had with mine because of it

A solid race for sure ! Nice group of horses here. But, like you said, why not take a shot on her at a price. Everything you said I agree with.
I don't know if Roussel matters either but you know he is a solid horseman so there's that.
She could run well and be off the board but as you know from following these 2 year olds turning three, they can improve in a blink, especially fillies.
Always love blks. on, plus the stretch out, 1st lasix, nice inside post. There is alot to like.

It's horses like these that can jump up and run well. And if you think about it, if she is 12-1 for instance, we both know that if 12 of these type situations come up, more than one wins, and more than 1 or 2 run 2nd.
While we never know about any one horse, this is value . Win or lose, nice find JBEX !
Good luck.

[JBEX]

A solid race for sure ! Nice group of horses here. But, like you said, why not take a shot on her at a price. Everything you said I agree with.
I don't know if Roussel matters either but you know he is a solid horseman so there's that.
She could run well and be off the board but as you know from following these 2 year olds turning three, they can improve in a blink, especially fillies.
Always love blks. on, plus the stretch out, 1st lasix, nice inside post. There is alot to like.

It's horses like these that can jump up and run well. And if you think about it, if she is 12-1 for instance, we both know that if 12 of these type situations come up, more than one wins, and more than 1 or 2 run 2nd.
While we never know about any one horse, this is value . Win or lose, nice find JBEX !
Good luck.

interesting that you feel it favors the fillies more than the colts but I believe you've mentioned this a few times before..I bet roussel likes to have a winner at his home track and maybe had this in mind from the get-go..could see 2-3 coming out of this race and be running in stakes company not too far down the line..we will see..thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

gulfstream

R7 #8 fly like an eagle (8-1)

first time starter on the grass for barclay tagg..love the work pattern leading up to the race including the last bullet 5f ..thinking that's probably not his modus operandi for a horse debuting in a turf route so maybe the horse has some real talent and did it on his own..like other things ..sires stud fee doubled this year and was expensive to begin with..dam sire more turf oriented..always remember from a long way back that "arch" is by kris s out of a danzig mare so no surprise there..her first foal to race and she was a winner..like the positive name and also a big steve miller band fan ...attracts jose ortiz who doesn't normally ride for him



someone with a frank whiteley avatar shouldn't have to ask a question about this trainer lol

[str]

hey str

gulfstream

R7 #8 fly like an eagle (8-1)

first time starter on the grass for barclay tagg..love the work pattern leading up to the race including the last bullet 5f ..thinking that's probably not his modus operandi for a horse debuting in a turf route so maybe the horse has some real talent and did it on his own..like other things ..sires stud fee doubled this year and was expensive to begin with..dam sire more turf oriented..always remember from a long way back that "arch" is by kris s out of a danzig mare so no surprise there..her first foal to race and she was a winner..like the positive name and also a big steve miller band fan ...attracts jose ortiz who doesn't normally ride for him



someone with a frank whiteley avatar shouldn't have to ask a question about this trainer lol

Appreciate the question JBEX.

Your write up is spot on. A few other observations and probabilities.

In no particular order:

That bullet work was probably Ortiz's first time on the horse. When you think highly of a horse, you would like to have the rider work it once before it's first start. As you said, not Barclay's way of doing things but with a rider like Ortiz instead of an exercise rider, the difference can be night and day. Probably well within itself doing what it did. Ortiz probably came back and told Barclay he was just "Rockn Me" through the lane.
And yes, Barclay hates real fast works. but this one makes sense.

First timer getting lasix from Barclay is probably rare. Always was when I knew him and old habits die hard. As you can see, his other horse in the race did not get lasix 1st out. Gets it 2nd time out which would , I assume , be the norm.

Plenty of pace for this one to run at. Barclay made sure of that with his other horse.

All in all Barclay has to feel positive about this horse for all he has tried to set up. I mean, he has laid a plan with several different tools and he's no "Joker" that just does things for no reason. He is trying to put all them together and hopeful that everything he has concocted will be an "Abracadabra" moment for the owner and his barn. If this one runs big it will be "Swingtown" in the "Winter Time" for the owners who might feel right on the "Threshold" of "True Fine Love" hoping to right a "Book Of Dreams" with this one. For Barclay he will gladly "Take The Money And Run" . "The Window" of opportunity exists. With the potential of being a good one a "Jet Airliner" could be in his future.

Now, if THAT doesn't get him beat, nothing will ! Lol.

Couldn't find a spot for a couple of cuts but got most of them. Added a couple from a later album as well.
Pretty sure I wore those tapes out in 1976 and 1978. More still in 1982.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Appreciate the question JBEX.

Your write up is spot on. A few other observations and probabilities.

In no particular order:

That bullet work was probably Ortiz's first time on the horse. When you think highly of a horse, you would like to have the rider work it once before it's first start. As you said, not Barclay's way of doing things but with a rider like Ortiz instead of an exercise rider, the difference can be night and day. Probably well within itself doing what it did. Ortiz probably came back and told Barclay he was just "Rockn Me" through the lane.
And yes, Barclay hates real fast works. but this one makes sense.

First timer getting lasix from Barclay is probably rare. Always was when I knew him and old habits die hard. As you can see, his other horse in the race did not get lasix 1st out. Gets it 2nd time out which would , I assume , be the norm.

Plenty of pace for this one to run at. Barclay made sure of that with his other horse.

All in all Barclay has to feel positive about this horse for all he has tried to set up. I mean, he has laid a plan with several different tools and he's no "Joker" that just does things for no reason. He is trying to put all them together and hopeful that everything he has concocted will be an "Abracadabra" moment for the owner and his barn. If this one runs big it will be "Swingtown" in the "Winter Time" for the owners who might feel right on the "Threshold" of "True Fine Love" hoping to right a "Book Of Dreams" with this one. For Barclay he will gladly "Take The Money And Run" . "The Window" of opportunity exists. With the potential of being a good one a "Jet Airliner" could be in his future.

Now, if THAT doesn't get him beat, nothing will ! Lol.

Couldn't find a spot for a couple of cuts but got most of them. Added a couple from a later album as well.
Pretty sure I wore those tapes out in 1976 and 1978. More still in 1982.

Thanks JBEX.

well have to start off with great job incorporating the songs into your response ..you covered a lot of the good ones and "the window" I wasn't even aware of..guess if you're a real fan you know that one ..very entertaining and they're a great band (think they may still play on ocassion or at least not too long ago) he's doomed unfortunately lol and if he wins he's probably going to be a real good one to overcome that


like the points of ortiz probably working him as the reason for the fast work ...lasix first out probably a good sign as it's atypical for him at least from the days you knew him

hopefully they'll be a serenade to the winner's circle ..now he's really got his work cut out for him lol

np and thanks for the response

[str]

hey str

gulfstream

R7 #8 fly like an eagle (8-1)

first time starter on the grass for barclay tagg..love the work pattern leading up to the race including the last bullet 5f ..thinking that's probably not his modus operandi for a horse debuting in a turf route so maybe the horse has some real talent and did it on his own..like other things ..sires stud fee doubled this year and was expensive to begin with..dam sire more turf oriented..always remember from a long way back that "arch" is by kris s out of a danzig mare so no surprise there..her first foal to race and she was a winner..like the positive name and also a big steve miller band fan ...attracts jose ortiz who doesn't normally ride for him



someone with a frank whiteley avatar shouldn't have to ask a question about this trainer lol

Well, IMO the horse gave a solid effort, especially for a firster. Split horses, rallied into a fast late fraction. They ran the first half of the race in :49 and the last half of the race in 46 3/5ths excluding the final 1/16th.
His running style will always be to some extent at the mercy of the pace. While the form showed the pace should not hinder him, the reality was, that it had to. All in all, a nice effort for a firster.
Certainly a horse to watch moving forward.
Nice catch JBEX.

[JBEX]

Well, IMO the horse gave a solid effort, especially for a firster. Split horses, rallied into a fast late fraction. They ran the first half of the race in :49 and the last half of the race in 46 3/5ths excluding the final 1/16th.
His running style will always be to some extent at the mercy of the pace. While the form showed the pace should not hinder him, the reality was, that it had to. All in all, a nice effort for a firster.
Certainly a horse to watch moving forward.
Nice catch JBEX.

yeah I thought not a bad effort considering some of the circumstances you mentioned.. was bet well also..barclay probably happy with that effort as a starting point..with trainer, jockey and way he was bet have a hunch he won't be a big secret next out ..thanks for the feedback

do you just subtract 6 seconds for the adjusted last half time.. guess that's always within a few ticks away?

[str]

yeah I thought not a bad effort considering some of the circumstances you mentioned.. was bet well also..barclay probably happy with that effort as a starting point..with trainer, jockey and way he was bet have a hunch he won't be a big secret next out ..thanks for the feedback

do you just subtract 6 seconds for the adjusted last half time.. guess that's always within a few ticks away?

I always use the charts. Old habit I guess.
They always have the times below the actual charts and above the prices. I used the 1/2 mile time and the mile time. The last 1/16th was 6 2/5ths. But the key to the race from a trainers perspective was around the far turn and through most of the lane to the 1/16th pole. 46 3/5ths is exceptional for maidens.
He's the real deal but yes, everybody knew that yesterday. Certainly will moving forward as well.

[JBEX]

I always use the charts. Old habit I guess.
They always have the times below the actual charts and above the prices. I used the 1/2 mile time and the mile time. The last 1/16th was 6 2/5ths. But the key to the race from a trainers perspective was around the far turn and through most of the lane to the 1/16th pole. 46 3/5ths is exceptional for maidens.
He's the real deal but yes, everybody knew that yesterday. Certainly will moving forward as well.

amazing all these years doing this and wasn't aware they give the mile time in the charts when it's over a mile..not something I would use a lot but good to know ..thanks

[littlekona]

your fly like an eagle ran a great race. the winner went crawling early right down the road wire job with probably the least preasure I have seen in long time in maiden full field on grass. one of my best angles is betting back horses that close into a wire to wire winner. Nice write up

[JBEX]

your fly like an eagle ran a great race. the winner went crawling early right down the road wire job with probably the least preasure I have seen in long time in maiden full field on grass. one of my best angles is betting back horses that close into a wire to wire winner. Nice write up

thanks kona..pete aiello described it as "well rationed" lol coming out of the far turn..good angle and he did run well factoring the pace..have a hunch the people who were down on him this time will take another shot at it next time
for the above reasons..have to keep an eye out for him and hopefully a lot more pace next time

[JBEX]

hey str..another for ya lol


greatest honour (who i have a little derby future interest in)
ran a big race in the holy bull stakes and won by almost 6 lengths..looks like he had a nice setup ,big move on the turn and won going away..was disappointed when I saw the winning beyer was only 89..I know you have your knocks on his numbers in certain situations.. I think this time of year an avg beyer at this level would be more like mid 90's and a seriously fast horse might eclipse 100...would you be put off at all by him earning such a low number after what looked like a really huge performance ?


there's a replay of the race in derby future thread


#7 if you didn't see this yet

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: above is the race JBEX referring to the Holy Bull.

[JBEX]

Hey STR: above is the race JBEX referring to the Holy Bull.

a little easier.. thanks

[str]

Thank you Easy !
Really appreciate that.

[str]

hey str..another for ya lol

greatest honour (who i have a little derby future interest in)
ran a big race in the holy bull stakes and won by almost 6 lengths..looks like he had a nice setup ,big move on the turn and won going away..was disappointed when I saw the winning beyer was only 89..I know you have your knocks on his numbers in certain situations.. I think this time of year an avg beyer at this level would be more like mid 90's and a seriously fast horse might eclipse 100...would you be put off at all by him earning such a low number after what looked like a really huge performance ?


there's a replay of the race in derby future thread


#7 if you didn't see this yet

While I have my issues with Beyers, and Beyer for that matter Lol, ( not really, he is who I thought he would be), here is my way of looking at it.

In no particular order:

This was the only 2 turn dirt race that day. Absolutely nothing to use as a comparison except sprints. Those sprints will usually show a bit flashier times . Not always, but often enough. So the number has to be given based on assumption, correct? If so, I would argue that all day.

The horse broke a step slow for sure and took a 1/16th to find it's early stride. That will have to stop to have a decent chance in the Derby. Keep an eye out for that.

Was 4 wide around the far turn and ran 23 3/5ths. Pretty sure his numbers do not take wide into account. But.. to be fair, the horse might not have had it in him to run the same speed down inside. We don't know that either way, but I have never been all about saving ground. It truly depends on the horses ability to run inside and some simply do not extend themselves in nearly the same fashion when inside instead of outside.

The horse ran 24 2/5ths,(I would speed that up be a 1/5th or two based on the poor break), 23 1/5th, 23 3/5ths, 24 2/5ths, and 6 3/5ths.
I view that as a damn good start based on the horses breeding. Why do I say breeding?

Because this stat is pretty big IMO:

The sire has had a son or grandson win or place in the Belmont in each of the past 7 years.

The second dam is Better than Honour, who produced 2 consecutive Belmont winners in 2006 and 2007.


What that says to me is that this horse is NOT MADE to fly around a 1 1/16th race. ( Sure wish they had a Belmont future !)

Because of these things, I don't care what the Beyer for this distance was. I don't think you should either.

Let's see what the Beyer is going a 1 1/8th down the road. This horse is made to excel at longer distances.

Also, IMO, lets see what Timeform has to say about it number wise. I have great respect for CJ Milkowski and his numbers and they do differ from Beyers sometimes.

One other thing that I have always looked at is the visual end of a race. In other words, when did I watch the race and say to myself "the race is over right there"? I used to do that all the time when I analyzed the Maryland horses for claiming and, my own horses.
I watched this race a second time to do just that and saw that at 58 seconds into the tape, IMO, the race was over. By that I mean, when it first became clear that the eventual winner was clearly going to win barring a problem. Watch it again and see if you see what I do. Watch the rider, his hands, the horse and the push button ability. I've done it forever and I know it will be hard to see but eventually, you will be able to spot this when it exists. And no, not every winner shows this. Plenty of times, it never shows or not until very late. But when a horse becomes clearly dominate within a race, it helps understand the overall effort if you can see it.
Hope this helps. Happy to follow up if necessary. Thanks JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: since you you mentioned you have issues with the Beyer speed figures, I want to get your opinion on the Brisnet? I have cappped using DFR, TImeform, and the BRIS and I find the BRIS to be the superior product by far. I do not like DRF, but TF is good as well as they heavily depend on the pace numbers. But I find the BRIS easiest to use and they have a lot of pertinent info that I find valuable. I could not cap without the pace figures that the BRIS provides. any thoughts? I know you do not cap on the regular anymore, but interested to see what you think? THx. and the DRF does have some TF pace info now, but not as specific as the BRIS product.

[JBEX]

While I have my issues with Beyers, and Beyer for that matter Lol, ( not really, he is who I thought he would be), here is my way of looking at it.

In no particular order:

This was the only 2 turn dirt race that day. Absolutely nothing to use as a comparison except sprints. Those sprints will usually show a bit flashier times . Not always, but often enough. So the number has to be given based on assumption, correct? If so, I would argue that all day.

The horse broke a step slow for sure and took a 1/16th to find it's early stride. That will have to stop to have a decent chance in the Derby. Keep an eye out for that.

Was 4 wide around the far turn and ran 23 3/5ths. Pretty sure his numbers do not take wide into account. But.. to be fair, the horse might not have had it in him to run the same speed down inside. We don't know that either way, but I have never been all about saving ground. It truly depends on the horses ability to run inside and some simply do not extend themselves in nearly the same fashion when inside instead of outside.

The horse ran 24 2/5ths,(I would speed that up be a 1/5th or two based on the poor break), 23 1/5th, 23 3/5ths, 24 2/5ths, and 6 3/5ths.
I view that as a damn good start based on the horses breeding. Why do I say breeding?

Because this stat is pretty big IMO:

The sire has had a son or grandson win or place in the Belmont in each of the past 7 years.

The second dam is Better than Honour, who produced 2 consecutive Belmont winners in 2006 and 2007.


What that says to me is that this horse is NOT MADE to fly around a 1 1/16th race. ( Sure wish they had a Belmont future !)

Because of these things, I don't care what the Beyer for this distance was. I don't think you should either.

Let's see what the Beyer is going a 1 1/8th down the road. This horse is made to excel at longer distances.

Also, IMO, lets see what Timeform has to say about it number wise. I have great respect for CJ Milkowski and his numbers and they do differ from Beyers sometimes.

One other thing that I have always looked at is the visual end of a race. In other words, when did I watch the race and say to myself "the race is over right there"? I used to do that all the time when I analyzed the Maryland horses for claiming and, my own horses.
I watched this race a second time to do just that and saw that at 58 seconds into the tape, IMO, the race was over. By that I mean, when it first became clear that the eventual winner was clearly going to win barring a problem. Watch it again and see if you see what I do. Watch the rider, his hands, the horse and the push button ability. I've done it forever and I know it will be hard to see but eventually, you will be able to spot this when it exists. And no, not every winner shows this. Plenty of times, it never shows or not until very late. But when a horse becomes clearly dominate within a race, it helps understand the overall effort if you can see it.
Hope this helps. Happy to follow up if necessary. Thanks JBEX.

I certainly agree that making a variant when it's the only dirt route on the card is iffy stuff..that right there could have a big effect

breaking a little slow and going wide around the turn ,as you said,could also be part of it..beyers do not factor on ground loss..I wouldn't give him 4 lengths (i always credit each path as a length..read it somewhere and makes sense)..I think 3 lengths is reasonable tardy into stride and ground loss..with the questionable variant value added to it he potentially could have run 4-6 lengths faster..I agree maybe the low figure could be downplayed a bit and there are other figure makers as you said


I had some difficulty seeing the 58 second point as where he seemed to have it put away..to me it seemed more like 10 seconds later when he really started passing horses but I guess there's more to it then that..I'll just go with it's another positive for him


I knew that tapit has been a very successful belmont sire but obviously didn't realize to that extent..then the 2nd dam info plus the dam sire is street cry who is extreme stamina and class ("street sense" and that super aussie filly "winx" to name a couple..and of course the former was a derby winner..many more good ones)..distance should not be an issue



will be an interesting follow..think we'll see him next in the fountain of youth..thanks for the great insight str

[littlekona]

You guys ever look at http://www.thesheets.com/ and or Ragozin numbers. I dont subrscribe BUT follow a few guys who make picks that do and pretty good tool for detecting long shot plays esp many i see get bet down too and pop plus great for finding bad favorites. Its very interesting stuff

[Easy-Rider 66]

You guys ever look at http://www.thesheets.com/ and or Ragozin numbers. I dont subrscribe BUT follow a few guys who make picks that do and pretty good tool for detecting long shot plays esp many i see get bet down too and pop plus great for finding bad favorites. Its very interesting stuff

yeah I use the thorograph sheets very rarely Kona. Way too expensive for the recreational player. I am aware of the Ragozin sheet numbers but prefer the t-graph. but at $25 a card just too pricey. sometimes I will buy a single race for $5 if in a contest and and doing well late in the game.

[JBEX]

You guys ever look at http://www.thesheets.com/ and or Ragozin numbers. I dont subrscribe BUT follow a few guys who make picks that do and pretty good tool for detecting long shot plays esp many i see get bet down too and pop plus great for finding bad favorites. Its very interesting stuff

many times going back at least 20 years..more of a novelty for me as they are ,as easy said, very pricey..have gotten both the ragozins and thorograph's..takes a long while to get acclimated and develop skills imo..for 5yo horses who started at 2 or 3 you can see their whole career on one page..just as an example of something you can do with them that you can't with standard pp's

[JBEX]

I certainly agree that making a variant when it's the only dirt route on the card is iffy stuff..that right there could have a big effect

breaking a little slow and going wide around the turn ,as you said,could also be part of it..beyers do not factor on ground loss..I wouldn't give him 4 lengths (i always credit each path as a length..read it somewhere and makes sense)..I think 3 lengths is reasonable tardy into stride and ground loss..with the questionable variant value added to it he potentially could have run 4-6 lengths faster..I agree maybe the low figure could be downplayed a bit and there are other figure makers as you said


I had some difficulty seeing the 58 second point as where he seemed to have it put away..to me it seemed more like 10 seconds later when he really started passing horses but I guess there's more to it then that..I'll just go with it's another positive for him


I knew that tapit has been a very successful belmont sire but obviously didn't realize to that extent..then the 2nd dam info plus the dam sire is street cry who is extreme stamina and class ("street sense" and that super aussie filly "winx" to name a couple..and of course the former was a derby winner..many more good ones)..distance should not be an issue



will be an interesting follow..think we'll see him next in the fountain of youth..thanks for the great insight str

zenyatta another..her only loss a near miss in the final race of her career in the breeders cup classic at churchill. also worth mentioning that street cry won the grade 1 stephen foster @ churchill..that race is @ 1 1/8 miles


seems like a definite fondness for churchill related to street cry..horse and offspring

[str]

I certainly agree that making a variant when it's the only dirt route on the card is iffy stuff..that right there could have a big effect

breaking a little slow and going wide around the turn ,as you said,could also be part of it..beyers do not factor on ground loss..I wouldn't give him 4 lengths (i always credit each path as a length..read it somewhere and makes sense)..I think 3 lengths is reasonable tardy into stride and ground loss..with the questionable variant value added to it he potentially could have run 4-6 lengths faster..I agree maybe the low figure could be downplayed a bit and there are other figure makers as you said


I had some difficulty seeing the 58 second point as where he seemed to have it put away..to me it seemed more like 10 seconds later when he really started passing horses but I guess there's more to it then that..I'll just go with it's another positive for him


I knew that tapit has been a very successful belmont sire but obviously didn't realize to that extent..then the 2nd dam info plus the dam sire is street cry who is extreme stamina and class ("street sense" and that super aussie filly "winx" to name a couple..and of course the former was a derby winner..many more good ones)..distance should not be an issue



will be an interesting follow..think we'll see him next in the fountain of youth..thanks for the great insight str

Just a couple of things to add.

1. IMO, closers are at the mercy of the early pace for "fast" races as compared to speed horses. They can only control themselves. So when they sweep to the lead and are much the best, they typically get geared down and or lose a bit of interest. Things like that will lead to a slightly slower finish which in turn might lead to a lower Beyer. Just an observation on that.

2. Heard that Timeform gave the horse a 115 figure which if I'm not mistaken puts him right near the other top 3 year olds to date.
I think that Beyer is off based on the problems we spoke about.

3. At 58 seconds he had moved ever so slightly with such a minimal ask to get past the horse to his outside and keep pace with the inside closer that it became obvious that he was ready when asked, which he was when you saw that move down the backside. Watch it again and see if you can see it.

[str]

You guys ever look at http://www.thesheets.com/ and or Ragozin numbers. I dont subrscribe BUT follow a few guys who make picks that do and pretty good tool for detecting long shot plays esp many i see get bet down too and pop plus great for finding bad favorites. Its very interesting stuff

I never used them but they are interesting for sure. I knew guys that did. It was like the bible to them.
When they 1st came out , King Leatherbury used them and fell in love with them. He trained for Len Ragozin and Len claimed horses solely based off those figures. They were very expense per day. I think more than the 25 dollars a day they are now. Don't remember when they started but they have been around since the late 70's? Ragozin owned horses in NY but would send the ones that couldn't cut it to King in Md. Eventually, he claimed in Md. as well.

So King used to leave after the 8th race at Pimlico and leave the sheets on his chair. I was only 2 boxes down from him so I would go over and get them after he left , trying to learn what the heck they were. When you are a young guy, you can do that stuff. Lol.

I do remember that Secretariat got a -1 and I think Spectacular Bid got a -2 . The sheets guys went nuts over that.

If you look up Len Ragozin, the founder, you will see that he was a brilliant mind and his sheets were and still are legit IMO. I just stayed with what I had come up with in the DRF, and the morning telegraph before that.

Everybody has a way of finding winners I guess. Thanks Kona !

[JBEX]

I never used them but they are interesting for sure. I knew guys that did. It was like the bible to them.
When they 1st came out , King Leatherbury used them and fell in love with them. He trained for Len Ragozin and Len claimed horses solely based off those figures. They were very expense per day. I think more than the 25 dollars a day they are now. Don't remember when they started but they have been around since the late 70's? Ragozin owned horses in NY but would send the ones that couldn't cut it to King in Md. Eventually, he claimed in Md. as well.

So King used to leave after the 8th race at Pimlico and leave the sheets on his chair. I was only 2 boxes down from him so I would go over and get them after he left , trying to learn what the heck they were. When you are a young guy, you can do that stuff. Lol.

I do remember that Secretariat got a -1 and I think Spectacular Bid got a -2 . The sheets guys went nuts over that.

If you look up Len Ragozin, the founder, you will see that he was a brilliant mind and his sheets were and still are legit IMO. I just stayed with what I had come up with in the DRF, and the morning telegraph before that.

Everybody has a way of finding winners I guess. Thanks Kona !

number on bid correct also

they have a link on their home page to past derby winners..derby figures and 3 races leading up going back to secretariat..very interesting..secretariat prep numbers prior to the derby were very slow prior to running his big derby figure (lower the better)

street sense who i discussed relative to greatest honour had imo the most consistent good numbers and smarty jones the best ..that's factoring in the 3 preps with the derby

[JBEX]

here's a little more about gh pedigree..can get a little head-spinning following the female family but good information

https://www.paulickreport.com/features/bloodlines/bloodlines-presented-by-diamond-b-farms-rowayton-greatest-honour-was-built-for-classic-success/

[str]

Hey STR: since you you mentioned you have issues with the Beyer speed figures, I want to get your opinion on the Brisnet? I have cappped using DFR, TImeform, and the BRIS and I find the BRIS to be the superior product by far. I do not like DRF, but TF is good as well as they heavily depend on the pace numbers. But I find the BRIS easiest to use and they have a lot of pertinent info that I find valuable. I could not cap without the pace figures that the BRIS provides. any thoughts? I know you do not cap on the regular anymore, but interested to see what you think? THx. and the DRF does have some TF pace info now, but not as specific as the BRIS product.

Sorry for the delayed response. This one got by me. Thanks for the heads up.

When SBR does the handicapping contests, I use the Bris if I use anything at all. More often than not, it's just the program as I just don't have the time to put in. And, I know I do not have the command of any publication like I used to so I'm only kidding myself if I put in a lot of time . When/if I retire or slow down, I will settle on one publication and try and sharpen up on it, and it would probably be the Bris mainly because of what you said it had. Pertinent info that I have not seen in the others.

The way the form has changed from my time, it has things in it that used to mean one thing and now mean another as well as new things that I am not familiar with. So, I tried to get used to the Bris. I have to be honest, I do NOT use the figures in them. Guess that's nuts but I don't. I try and read it like the old form , look at fractions, set up pace, see riders, post positions, run to the turns, equipment changes, etc., etc.

It was hard at first but I got used to them at least to some degree. I never used the Timeform. I have listened to a few podcasts of CJ's and as far as handicappers go, he seems to get it, to a level that I feel makes him better understand the things that some handicappers don't necessarily get.
I guess, and this is just my opinion, that CJ is the kind of person that would relish the opportunity to speak with trainers, or others within the business that were willing to explain the nuances within what they do and actually know what they are talking about, and incorporate what he took from those conversations into helping to make him better at what he does while Beyer would not care what others say because he either lacks the trust it would take to believe the word of a trainer, rider, etc. and, or, he looks at them as a moron that lacks his intellectual standing. That was the impression I always seemed to get when talking to him or listening to him. I think his unwillingness to concede that he might actually be able to learn something from someone else, keeps him from being even smarter than he is, or was then. Whether that is actually true or not, I do not know, but it is absolutely the way he left me and others feeling when they conversed with him. CJ is anything but that. And in my mind, THAT, is what separates the two.

It's kind of weird knowing that when I look at the form, I am at the same level now that I was when I was 18-19 which was about 4 years into reading it a lot. I guess I would sharpen up with regular practice but as of now, that just does not occur. It does help me, and I do appreciate when I am asked a question about a horse and I am PM'ed the link to the Bris. It's great to read it when the questions come up. And I think I do look forward to sharpening up with it sometime down the road. Very few things beat digging a winner out of the the form, I mean Bris, Lol, (Freudian slip), at a price.

Thanks Easy! All the best to you my friend.

[Easy-Rider 66]

THx for the Take STR.