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We are up 66.00 on the day betting 10 and 20 a race.
20 win #3
20 win #6
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Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.
Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .
On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.
Too bad but what if it was worse?Comment -
with CM even though he started out (3 starts) sensationally as a 2yo running 1 turn races think they might have given up on routing too quick
here's why I say that
1st attempt at 2 turns is the bc juvenile from the furthest outside post off a long cross country ship preceding it ..not easy circumstances
tampa bay derby wasn't bad and compromised imo by a very slow pace
bluegrass only lost by 4+ lengths and a bit of a wide trip between horses .. even if there weren't many excuses here I could still give him 1 more shot off the circumstances in his previous two
I have a hunch with some experience going 2 turns in him and a little mental health freshening from this race he might take to it in a listed or lower level graded stakes .. a specialty allowance condition (time,distance or both)even better
looks like they moved the manhattan stakes (deterministic) to the inner turf which required it to be shortened a half furlong to 1 1/8 miles..post time 7:12
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army mule.. sunday
churchill 6 @ 3:18
#9 grade a (12-1)
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army mule monday
presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#5 lieutenant stan (8-1)Comment -
Deterministic !!!!
A Great call by JBEX from way back when this horse was a maiden.
What an extremely emotional week or two for the Clement family.
To see that horse relax, wait for commands and fight off others late is a true testament to perfection when it comes to a trainers ability to fix what is often times for other trainers, the unfixable.
What a sensational race. I'm so happy for the family and connections.
Rest in Peace Christopher. See you in the Hall of Fame very soon.Comment -
Here is something I want to be sure and point out to fans who saw the Met Mile on Saturday.
Let me start by saying that I do not know these horses individually. Don't know any more than I have seen of them on TV . But from what I have seen, I concluded that both Fierceness and White Albarrio are a little quirky in their individual likes and dislikes. I saw this because I watched White Albarrio when Ricky had him and it seemed too me that there were things he did not really care for. Every race was not the same in that sometimes it seemed like the effort was differing from race to race and alot of that differing was IMO because of different situations the horse was in.
I saw Fierceness run somewhat the same ways. It was my feeling, right or wrong, that both horses do prefer no kickback or as little as possible kickback and seem to want to be clear of dirt and a clean right eye. Again, maybe it just looked like that but that was my impression.
So when I saw that they had drawn the 1 and 2 post going out of that severe half turn leaving the chute at Saratoga and knowing both had speed but in perfect worlds would be fine laying just off a leader and running by them late, I looked at the rest of the field and what showed up? The box showed up. Meaning, the 5 horse had speed and with that chute and turn coming, and neither the 1 or the 2 wanting to grab the lead but with a decent early turn of foot, this race had a chance to come together for the 5 horse, again, the horse with the BOX.
Watch the rerun and watch the rider on the 5 horse ride away with elbows flying wanting to get ahead of those 2 inside monsters and drop over enough to kick some mud back and have them checking ever so slightly when they hit that elbow. That is exactly what happened. Even better for the 5 horse was, the 1 and the 2 bumped a bit finding position and again, neither horse wants that stuff. They are both IMO a bit finicky when it comes to that.
So were they the 2 best horses in the race. Heck yes!
But not with the outside horse with the box, having a plan to do exactly what the rider did which was to make them both uncomfortable, which the rider on the 5 horse did masterfully.
I know, after the race you tell us. Sorry guys. That's not the point. The point is , please please, start handicapping and looking for how a race will likely unfold and ALWAYS check for a box type situation when coming out of any chute, especially that Wilson chute at Saratoga which can be brutal on inside horses when situations like this set up as well as highly advantageous to the horse with tactical speed AND the box. IMO, if fierceness has the 5 post and the winner had the 1 post, Fierceness wins IMO. I would say the same about White Albarrio but he has seemed to kind of get lost around the far turn at times at times and he looked it again on Saturday.
Here is the race. Watch 3 times . Once watch the 1 from the break until it clears the chute and straightens away down the backside. Then, watch the 2 do the same thing. Then watch the 5 do it. That race was won in the first 24 seconds folks.
The 1 and 2 horse bump slightly but watch the jock on the 1 horse flick his stick on the shoulder of Fierceness just as the mud flies back and the 5 crosses in front of him. See that? Fierceness hesitated and the jock had to make him stop thinking for himself about the rail and the mud and get his head back on task. Sooo cool to see that and realize that when Fierceness runs back, he will be better than last Saturday. And the winner? I can't see how he could be any better than he was on Saturday.
That is HUGE.
I hope you can see what I am talking about.
Last edited by str; Today, 08:59 AM.Comment -
thanks str
didn't work out as a derby future (which is how it started) but turned out to be a really nice horse ..it is interesting how they changed his running style this year .. maybe busting out for the lead in that off the turf race at kee made them see he is capable of doing it up front as well as stalking
still would love to see him on a fast dirt track but at this point that's not going to happen .. the fact he did that at such a high level in his first 2 starts will probably be a positive factor in marketing him as a stallion which I think he will eventually be
if they are pointing for the bc turf which I believe at dmr is 1 3/8 miles I'm guessing the bowling green (at saratoga) on 7/12 might be the next logical stop .. that's also at the same distance as the bc..heck maybe they're even considering the bc turf mile as a possible goal but I don't think so ..be interesting to see what path they'll go with him
very touching win for the family and connections of the horse who it was said were very close to christohe' also .. he's certainly more than a deserving candidate for the hall of fame and a shame he didn't get in while he was alive
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