Originally posted by JBEX
I'm sure you and some other regulars in here do as well.
-
I love it !
I'm sure you and some other regulars in here do as well.Comment -
absolutely..you'll get the nicer camera and drone views alsoOriginally posted by strComment -
We are up 66.00 on the day betting 10 and 20 a race.
20 win #3
20 win #6
Comment -
Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.
Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .
On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.
Too bad but what if it was worse?Comment -
Originally posted by str
with CM even though he started out (3 starts) sensationally as a 2yo running 1 turn races think they might have given up on routing too quick
here's why I say that
1st attempt at 2 turns is the bc juvenile from the furthest outside post off a long cross country ship preceding it ..not easy circumstances
tampa bay derby wasn't bad and compromised imo by a very slow pace
bluegrass only lost by 4+ lengths and a bit of a wide trip between horses .. even if there weren't many excuses here I could still give him 1 more shot off the circumstances in his previous two
I have a hunch with some experience going 2 turns in him and a little mental health freshening from this race he might take to it in a listed or lower level graded stakes .. a specialty allowance condition (time,distance or both)even better
looks like they moved the manhattan stakes (deterministic) to the inner turf which required it to be shortened a half furlong to 1 1/8 miles..post time 7:12
Comment -
army mule.. sunday
churchill 6 @ 3:18
#9 grade a (12-1)
.Comment -
rick dutrow has #1 whose 1st off the claimOriginally posted by JBEXComment -
army mule monday
presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#5 lieutenant stan (8-1)Comment -
Deterministic !!!!
A Great call by JBEX from way back when this horse was a maiden.
What an extremely emotional week or two for the Clement family.
To see that horse relax, wait for commands and fight off others late is a true testament to perfection when it comes to a trainers ability to fix what is often times for other trainers, the unfixable.
What a sensational race. I'm so happy for the family and connections.
Rest in Peace Christopher. See you in the Hall of Fame very soon.Comment -
Here is something I want to be sure and point out to fans who saw the Met Mile on Saturday.
Let me start by saying that I do not know these horses individually. Don't know any more than I have seen of them on TV . But from what I have seen, I concluded that both Fierceness and White Albarrio are a little quirky in their individual likes and dislikes. I saw this because I watched White Albarrio when Ricky had him and it seemed too me that there were things he did not really care for. Every race was not the same in that sometimes it seemed like the effort was differing from race to race and alot of that differing was IMO because of different situations the horse was in.
I saw Fierceness run somewhat the same ways. It was my feeling, right or wrong, that both horses do prefer no kickback or as little as possible kickback and seem to want to be clear of dirt and a clean right eye. Again, maybe it just looked like that but that was my impression.
So when I saw that they had drawn the 1 and 2 post going out of that severe half turn leaving the chute at Saratoga and knowing both had speed but in perfect worlds would be fine laying just off a leader and running by them late, I looked at the rest of the field and what showed up? The box showed up. Meaning, the 5 horse had speed and with that chute and turn coming, and neither the 1 or the 2 wanting to grab the lead but with a decent early turn of foot, this race had a chance to come together for the 5 horse, again, the horse with the BOX.
Watch the rerun and watch the rider on the 5 horse ride away with elbows flying wanting to get ahead of those 2 inside monsters and drop over enough to kick some mud back and have them checking ever so slightly when they hit that elbow. That is exactly what happened. Even better for the 5 horse was, the 1 and the 2 bumped a bit finding position and again, neither horse wants that stuff. They are both IMO a bit finicky when it comes to that.
So were they the 2 best horses in the race. Heck yes!
But not with the outside horse with the box, having a plan to do exactly what the rider did which was to make them both uncomfortable, which the rider on the 5 horse did masterfully.
I know, after the race you tell us. Sorry guys. That's not the point. The point is , please please, start handicapping and looking for how a race will likely unfold and ALWAYS check for a box type situation when coming out of any chute, especially that Wilson chute at Saratoga which can be brutal on inside horses when situations like this set up as well as highly advantageous to the horse with tactical speed AND the box. IMO, if fierceness has the 5 post and the winner had the 1 post, Fierceness wins IMO. I would say the same about White Albarrio but he has seemed to kind of get lost around the far turn at times at times and he looked it again on Saturday.
Here is the race. Watch 3 times . Once watch the 1 from the break until it clears the chute and straightens away down the backside. Then, watch the 2 do the same thing. Then watch the 5 do it. That race was won in the first 24 seconds folks.
The 1 and 2 horse bump slightly but watch the jock on the 1 horse flick his stick on the shoulder of Fierceness just as the mud flies back and the 5 crosses in front of him. See that? Fierceness hesitated and the jock had to make him stop thinking for himself about the rail and the mud and get his head back on task. Sooo cool to see that and realize that when Fierceness runs back, he will be better than last Saturday. And the winner? I can't see how he could be any better than he was on Saturday.
That is HUGE.
I hope you can see what I am talking about.
Comment -
Originally posted by str
thanks str
didn't work out as a derby future (which is how it started) but turned out to be a really nice horse ..it is interesting how they changed his running style this year .. maybe busting out for the lead in that off the turf race at kee made them see he is capable of doing it up front as well as stalking
still would love to see him on a fast dirt track but at this point that's not going to happen .. the fact he did that at such a high level in his first 2 starts will probably be a positive factor in marketing him as a stallion which I think he will eventually be
if they are pointing for the bc turf which I believe at dmr is 1 3/8 miles I'm guessing the bowling green (at saratoga) on 7/12 might be the next logical stop .. that's also at the same distance as the bc..heck maybe they're even considering the bc turf mile as a possible goal but I don't think so ..be interesting to see what path they'll go with him
very touching win for the family and connections of the horse who it was said were very close to christohe' also .. he's certainly more than a deserving candidate for the hall of fame and a shame he didn't get in while he was alive
Comment -
can't find results after race 5 .. guessing the card was canceled after thatOriginally posted by JBEXComment -
I looked as well. Saw the same thing.Originally posted by JBEX
No clue what happened.Comment -
This "Deterministic Race" was my best confidence race of the day. I didn't spread enough as I only could see 5 horses. I just played around with .20 supers, keying the 2 Integration and the 9 Far Bridge with the 1,5,6. Damm 6 killed me (no show) as the 8 grabbed 4th and the 1 Endlessly (who I got hung on) failed. Reflection always painful after I saw the 259 tri payoff.Originally posted by str
Comment -
Off topic on this one but... in the NFL, where I was born and raised a Redskin fan which lasted until ,Snyder bought then team and destroyed it, I have now, virtually overnight become a fan of a new team. Don't get me wrong, I love watching the NFL and every team. I'm an NFL fan, not a Commanders fan necessarily, although I have come to really like the head coach, but anyway, believe it or not I as of today after reading what the owner of the Phila. Eagles family did, in donating 50 Million dollars to Autism research, and not the first time as they have donated a ton over the years, but 50 Million in one shot, I am now a Eagles fan. It doesn't feel right to say the city name with Eagles, LOLOL, but anyway, I appreciate the owners gesture so much that I will absolutely be rooting for them in the future. Always liked Barkley anyway so what the heck.
Have a great day everyone. Find a winner !Comment -
Doubling down on statements made last month about not opening Fair Grounds Race & Slots in New Orleans for a live horse racing meet this fall, Churchill Downs Inc.’s chief executive officer informed the Louisiana State Racing Commission the company plans to “begin the next steps” to relinquish its live racing and OTB license, along with its slots and video poker licenses, at the racing commission's next meeting.
In a June 9 letter to racing commission officials – obtained by the Paulick Report – Bill Carstanjen, the chief executive officer of CDI, said the loss of historical horse racing (HHR) revenue, following an adverse state Supreme Court ruling, and newly enacted legislation has forced the company’s hand.
Hey STR It looks LIKE THE fAIRGROUNDS MEET IS IN DEEP WATERS.Comment -
army mule .. thursday
woodbine 8 @ 6:23
#1 sake and sushi (20-1)
charles town 5 @ 8:53
#7 blanches mule (10-1)Comment -
Looks like it. I cannot feel sorry for any track in Louisiana though, with them allowing all the criminal trainers that cannot run with HISA being able to go there and pretend its OK to use the garbage drugs they use. Feel sorry for those that are honest and stabled there though.Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
Man do I hate F'in cheaters! Nothing but half ass wanna be trainers if you seek shelter there or W. VA.
The owners that stay with those corrupt trainers should be held accountable for aiding and abetting.
I don't think I would be very popular there or W. Va. with that attitude. Lolol.Comment -
whats the cliff notes? Has Louisiana allowed horse doping?Originally posted by strComment -
Well, not per se but... they along with W. Va. will not comply or recognize HISA which is there to prevent corruption, DRUGS, etc. Every other state that has racing is part of HISA. And while HISA a hard line, that the game desperately needed it AND STILL DOES.Originally posted by Optional
The drugs were totally out of control. Something I have spoken to frequently in here.
Here is a link to it's website:
Comment -
With Sake and Sushi scratched at Woodbine, the only Army Mule running was Blanches Mule at Charlestown.Originally posted by JBEX
An Army Mule at Charlestown??? Think about that a minute.
A superior stallion whose offspring run their guts out every time they race against inferior horses at C.T.
Result: Wins and pays 16.20
Folks, it's an edge. I continue to suggest that you follow them around.
Good Luck.
Comment -
when they find their appropriate level they are more competitive than the avg sire..certainly seems that wayOriginally posted by strComment -
on that note a 2yo first time starter by him
gulfstream 4 @ 2:28
#2 army medic (9-2)
.Comment -
First time starter dueled head and head with the 3-5 favorite and finished 2nd as the 4th betting choice at 6.40 -1Originally posted by JBEX
2.00 exacta returned 24.80
Hope someone had it.Comment -
exacta paid more than double what it should..trifecta paid 4-5x what it shouldOriginally posted by str
if you took a position that you probably weren't going to beat the 3-5 (a) and there were only 2 other horses bet (both 7-2) (c,d) and AM (b)
a/b/cd
a/cd/b
4 combos (.50) $2 .. return $18.90
not bad
.
Comment -
army mule .. saturday
baq 5 @ 3:06
#4 remember the chief (10-1)
.Comment -
scratchedOriginally posted by JBEXComment -
here's another
lone star 8 @ 5:51
#5 u. s. army (15-1)
.Comment -
This horse went off 11-1. He ran hard, ( no surprise), finishing 6th. Got beat 2 lengths for,3rd and 5 1/2 lengths for everything. Was 5 wide around the turn trying to rally and was within a length and a half will widest of all around the turn. All this horse needs to do is train lightly and drop a notch and if it gives the same effort, will be right there next out. Could run fine in this race next out with a better setup but hopefully the trainer will use that wide trip as a reason to give this one some class relief. Solid follow horse folks.Originally posted by JBEX
Clearly a horse to put in to your stable for next out.Comment -
they've done very well with him earning almost $300k on a $32k auction purchase .. great example of you can get a real nice horse at a reasonable price with this sire and we've certainly seen quite a few others like this ..this was one of those specialty alw conditions as he's been through all the core ones..maybe they'll have another or might have to expose him for a high tag ..that was an option in here if he didn't qualify on the time and distance partComment -
Allowance races conditions are everything as we talked about last year when we were discussing running against Debby’s Turn with a claimer I had. Learned my lesson in one race as a freshman trainer.Originally posted by JBEX
Any slight class relief would be huge for this horse.
A perfect trip might do it but combine the two and it makes for a great opportunity to win.
Good comment on the allowance conditions.Comment -
thanks str..here's today's army mule's
baq 3 @ 2:05
#6 army proud (3-1)
mth 8 @ 4:20
#7 molly's a bullet (4-1)
mth 9
#1 bel pensiero (12-1)
monmouth are anthony margotta trained full siblings and in consecutive races..seen both before
.Comment -
I remember talking about Anthony Margotta.Originally posted by JBEX
A Monmouth Park stalwartComment -
I think Bel Pensiaro will run better than 12-1 in there.
She is picked to run next to last.
She might, but that is ridiculous .
Other than two horses, the field is something like 2-35 on the turf.Comment -
Originally posted by str
absolutely..goes back to the 80's
bit of a step-up in class but she's a gamer and will probably offer value in here..like most and based on her last 3 turf sprints he seems like a battler when challengedOriginally posted by str
Comment
