Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

Stayed on the left lead all the way through the stretch. Was tired from that do doubt.

Didn't see the prices but that 5 horse was a hidden gem. Rosario up on that firster from a non descript trainer with some very impressive works in between maintenance stuff caught my eye. Ran very well at a nice price.

Thanks JBEX.

ok good to know I'm seeing things right with switching leads lol..is there anyway to estimate about how many lengths that costs you and is it a total guess whether that might change in his next race ?


agree 5 ran a great race for a debut ..looks like he bore in in the stretch quite a bit but maybe that's just out of inexperience


other note: world record is running in the amsterdam stakes @ saratoga .. 6.5f g2 on Friday (R3)
..can't get off the rail with this guy ..even in his debut 3 starts ago he was post 2 in an 11 horse field



.

[str]

ok good to know I'm seeing things right with switching leads lol..is there anyway to estimate about how many lengths that costs you and is it a total guess whether that might change in his next race ?


agree 5 ran a great race for a debut ..looks like he bore in in the stretch quite a bit but maybe that's just out of inexperience


other note: world record is running in the amsterdam stakes @ saratoga .. 6.5f g2 on Friday (R3)
..can't get off the rail with this guy ..even in his debut 3 starts ago he was post 2 in an 11 horse field



.

2nd question first: Just saw the Amsterdam. Wow, what a race! Good news it's a 5 horse field. Bad news, all 5 could win.

Man that is a solid race with real nice potential for all of them. If he runs well there, that's saying something.





Want to watch the replay again on the 1st question. I'll be back.

[str]

ok good to know I'm seeing things right with switching leads lol..is there anyway to estimate about how many lengths that costs you and is it a total guess whether that might change in his next race ?


agree 5 ran a great race for a debut ..looks like he bore in in the stretch quite a bit but maybe that's just out of inexperience


other note: world record is running in the amsterdam stakes @ saratoga .. 6.5f g2 on Friday (R3)
..can't get off the rail with this guy ..even in his debut 3 starts ago he was post 2 in an 11 horse field



.

The lugging in is when he really started to run out of gas. That was a direct result in not switching legs. Ever over used your arm , like 10-15,20 times in a row doing something? You start doing half pushes or twists and you start using more body to aid that tired arm. Lol. I sure have.
THAT, is what it feels like for the horse who has simply lost the strength in that leg to be able to continue. Like a puncher who throws too many from the same side. Like Appollo Creed in round 15 in Rocky.
That is exactly what you are seeing. The announcer said a 4 length lead right when that started and I saw the 1/8th pole on the left side of the screen on the dirt track, so right there if you watch the replay.

You will not know if he switches next out before the race so it is a guess, but I would bet that the 1st time he does switch, he probably wins or is right there. You can bet that the trainer's focus for the next race will be all about switching leads. If you can see a workout between now and his next race, and he DOES switch, he is very bettable next out because people will be betting on his last effort and we know that he is better than that if he switches by 4-5 lengths? My best guess.

[JBEX]

The lugging in is when he really started to run out of gas. That was a direct result in not switching legs. Ever over used your arm , like 10-15,20 times in a row doing something? You start doing half pushes or twists and you start using more body to aid that tired arm. Lol. I sure have.
THAT, is what it feels like for the horse who has simply lost the strength in that leg to be able to continue. Like a puncher who throws too many from the same side. Like Appollo Creed in round 15 in Rocky.
That is exactly what you are seeing. The announcer said a 4 length lead right when that started and I saw the 1/8th pole on the left side of the screen on the dirt track, so right there if you watch the replay.

You will not know if he switches next out before the race so it is a guess, but I would bet that the 1st time he does switch, he probably wins or is right there. You can bet that the trainer's focus for the next race will be all about switching leads. If you can see a workout between now and his next race, and he DOES switch, he is very bettable next out because people will be betting on his last effort and we know that he is better than that if he switches by 4-5 lengths? My best guess.

while never a great athlete I think I know what you mean..the body gets involved when your arm gets tired and interesting that something similar happens to horses ..in this case,just like the army mule runner, the horse not switching leads probably contributed to it..might have been a lot closer had army proud switched leads as he lost by <5 lengths


believe that horse's name came from the late trainer leon blusiewicz who is probably someone you're familiar with..remember I'd say about 10-15 years ago he shipped a debut horse to saratoga to run at 1 1/8 miles and there's was all sorts of buzz going into the race ..I think he was boasting to the media about it or word around the backstretch kind of deal ..went off I believe around 5-2 and did get it done..he ran him in the travers next (li'l ambitious lol) and I believe he ran out of the money

[JBEX]

just noticed one of (if not) army mule's best progeny goes in the feature at saratoga..amazingly consistent runner and I believe a 2nd place finish would put her just shy of $1M career earnings

R9 #5 danse macabre (10-1)
@ 5:45


will not be a play in other thread but will be rooting for her

[str]

just noticed one of (if not) army mule's best progeny goes in the feature at saratoga..amazingly consistent runner and I believe a 2nd place finish would put her just shy of $1M career earnings

R9 #5 danse macabre (10-1)
@ 5:45


will not be a play in other thread but will be rooting for her

Just gave it the 1 minute handicap. Another closely contested race with several that look real live. She is real solid but she might be climbing a mountain here. Never count her out though. Wish I could have spent 20 minutes on this race. My fault.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

Just gave it the 1 minute handicap. Another closely contested race with several that look real live. She is real solid but she might be climbing a mountain here. Never count her out though. Wish I could have spent 20 minutes on this race. My fault.
Thanks JBEX.

no problem str


would quick turn of foot be an accurate description of her running style ? seems to be able to accelerate in a hurry when it's needed .. thought she might get it in the last 50 yards

[JBEX]

2nd question first: Just saw the Amsterdam. Wow, what a race! Good news it's a 5 horse field. Bad news, all 5 could win.

Man that is a solid race with real nice potential for all of them. If he runs well there, that's saying something.





Want to watch the replay again on the 1st question. I'll be back.

realize we got a lot going on here lol but I like WR tomorrow .. since he's a follow like KB and DM don't want this to get confused as a homer pick..

feel he's the speed of the speed and will be aggressively sent to the lead.. in any race whether on the lead,pressing or stalking feel he has a brawler mentality and will be a very tough out

[str]

while never a great athlete I think I know what you mean..the body gets involved when your arm gets tired and interesting that something similar happens to horses ..in this case,just like the army mule runner, the horse not switching leads probably contributed to it..might have been a lot closer had army proud switched leads as he lost by <5 lengths


believe that horse's name came from the late trainer leon blusiewicz who is probably someone you're familiar with..remember I'd say about 10-15 years ago he shipped a debut horse to saratoga to run at 1 1/8 miles and there's was all sorts of buzz going into the race ..I think he was boasting to the media about it or word around the backstretch kind of deal ..went off I believe around 5-2 and did get it done..he ran him in the travers next (li'l ambitious lol) and I believe he ran out of the money

Q. In this case, just like the army mule runner, the horse not switching leads probably contributed to it..might have been a lot closer had army proud switched leads as he lost by <5 lengths


A. Oh it did. Hopefully it was 1st race jitters and not a long term battle. It will be the sole focus between now and race 2.

Q. believe that horse's name came from the late trainer leon blusiewicz who is probably someone you're familiar with..remember I'd say about 10-15 years ago he shipped a debut horse to saratoga to run at 1 1/8 miles and there's was all sorts of buzz going into the race ..I think he was boasting to the media about it or word around the backstretch kind of deal ..went off I believe around 5-2 and did get it done..he ran him in the travers next (li'l ambitious lol) and I believe he ran out of the money

A. Yeah, I saw that name. It most likely was Blue's name being recognized. He was a really colorful character and was hard to not like. Everyone liked Blue. One of those guys that never really impressed you as a top notch trainer, but he got runner after runner after runner. I never could figure it out but he got good horse after good horse. So he certainly was doing something very right. And yes, he could ambitiously place a horse with the best of him. Lol.
When he came around in the morning to our hangout at Pimlico of Me, Dickie and Ronnie Alfano, Joe Tuminelli and his dad, and others that came by, he was always funny as hell. He really made you laugh. He was very well liked and a real good guy. Ah, memories.

[JBEX]

Q. In this case, just like the army mule runner, the horse not switching leads probably contributed to it..might have been a lot closer had army proud switched leads as he lost by <5 lengths


A. Oh it did. Hopefully it was 1st race jitters and not a long term battle. It will be the sole focus between now and race 2.

Q. believe that horse's name came from the late trainer leon blusiewicz who is probably someone you're familiar with..remember I'd say about 10-15 years ago he shipped a debut horse to saratoga to run at 1 1/8 miles and there's was all sorts of buzz going into the race ..I think he was boasting to the media about it or word around the backstretch kind of deal ..went off I believe around 5-2 and did get it done..he ran him in the travers next (li'l ambitious lol) and I believe he ran out of the money

A. Yeah, I saw that name. It most likely was Blue's name being recognized. He was a really colorful character and was hard to not like. Everyone liked Blue. One of those guys that never really impressed you as a top notch trainer, but he got runner after runner after runner. I never could figure it out but he got good horse after good horse. So he certainly was doing something very right. And yes, he could ambitiously place a horse with the best of him. Lol.
When he came around in the morning to our hangout at Pimlico of Me, Dickie and Ronnie Alfano, Joe Tuminelli and his dad, and others that came by, he was always funny as hell. He really made you laugh. He was very well liked and a real good guy. Ah, memories.

you would like this..article about him passing away and some nice stories and rememberances..the saratoga debut horse I talked about is mentioned
.

https://www.drf.com/news/leon-blusiewicz-runyonesque-trainer-multiple-stakes-winners-dies-92

[JBEX]

great 4 minute interview with him..notice the guy in the background

https://youtu.be/IUjEjCyIr4c?si=3XS75548iQQgjkSx

.

[JBEX]

another army mule going in sar R10

#2 ferris muler (15-1)
@ 6:19

used another in my thread but this one interesting at a price imo..like the name

[str]

great 4 minute interview with him..notice the guy in the background

https://youtu.be/IUjEjCyIr4c?si=3XS75548iQQgjkSx

.

Wow. Thanks JBEX.

[str]

you would like this..article about him passing away and some nice stories and rememberances..the saratoga debut horse I talked about is mentioned
.
https://www.drf.com/news/leon-blusie...inners-dies-92

This one also. TY.

[str]

no problem str


would quick turn of foot be an accurate description of her running style ? seems to be able to accelerate in a hurry when it's needed .. thought she might get it in the last 50 yards

That was a tough beat! She ran her brains out.

Quick turn of foot sounds more to me a speed type that can quickly accelerate. But that's just me. I might call that a relentless late kick whenever asked. Man, you gotta love a horse like that.

[str]

realize we got a lot going on here lol but I like WR tomorrow .. since he's a follow like KB and DM don't want this to get confused as a homer pick..

feel he's the speed of the speed and will be aggressively sent to the lead.. in any race whether on the lead,pressing or stalking feel he has a brawler mentality and will be a very tough out

All things equal, the rail might force him to go early and if so, I agree he looks faster than the 2 and 3. The question will be can he get a breather to help hold off the 4 and maybe the 5. That 5 horse is 4-4 at Oaklawn but nowhere in 2 starts at Saratoga.
I cannot disagree with your stance there JBEX.

[str]

another army mule going in sar R10

#2 ferris muler (15-1)
@ 6:19

used another in my thread but this one interesting at a price imo..like the name

They almost all run so why not?

That's Mike Luzzi's daughter Lane riding, right?

[JBEX]

They almost all run so why not?

That's Mike Luzzi's daughter Lane riding, right?

close enough lol .. his son

[str]

close enough lol .. his son

I think I asked you that question a couple of years ago.

Why do I think he had a daughter? Lol.

[JBEX]

I think I asked you that question a couple of years ago.

Why do I think he had a daughter? Lol.

yes I think you did .. guess maybe it brings to mind the name lainey

[JBEX]

not much to break down with WR performance..went right to the front as expected,not pressed and had plenty left top of the stretch..only thing I did notice ,and it's not a knock but a curiosity, is he seemed to tilt his head to the right for much of the stretch ..guessing that may have something to do with running in blinkers for the 1st time ?


have to think the g1 allen jerkens @ 7f will be next ..that's 4 weeks away and the obvious next race for a horse who runs well in this
race..if that's the way they decide to go and he wins or runs well they'd probably keep him sprinting this year or maybe consider a race like the pa derby and test the route waters..be kind of intriguing if he doesn't win ,he still has an alw condition..being by gun runner he might be ok at 2 turns also and would have to think that's on the radar of the connections ..do you think based on what you saw str that 2 turns might be good for him ?

[JBEX]

maybe the last sentence should be "have seen" as we have watched him in 4 races now..my 1st thought would be he might be difficult to get to settle on the front end of a route

[str]

not much to break down with WR performance..went right to the front as expected,not pressed and had plenty left top of the stretch..only thing I did notice ,and it's not a knock but a curiosity, is he seemed to tilt his head to the right for much of the stretch ..guessing that may have something to do with running in blinkers for the 1st time ?

have to think the g1 allen jerkens @ 7f will be next ..that's 4 weeks away and the obvious next race for a horse who runs well in this
race..if that's the way they decide to go and he wins or runs well they'd probably keep him sprinting this year or maybe consider a race like the pa derby and test the route waters..be kind of intriguing if he doesn't win ,he still has an alw condition..being by gun runner he might be ok at 2 turns also and would have to think that's on the radar of the connections ..do you think based on what you saw str that 2 turns might be good for him ?

He ran GREAT ! Blks. on, broke well and the rider sent him leaving the gate. Seems like the connections are as irritated with the constant 1 post as we are. Today, it looked like they accepted that 1 post with an attitude. It was obviously the right call. This horse is fast, rate able, goes when asked and game. Looks like the complete package too me.

Great pick JBEX and great read that today it was go from the inside especially with blinkers on. That 14.00 mutual was kind of a gift I thought. Real glad you had it. Hope some of the readers here did as well.

The head looking outwards 3 different times is curious. The first time, the rider wanted to make sure the horse was ready for what was coming outside. Those last two were the horse looking, probably the crowd noise and wanting to see what's up over there. Maybe they put a small diamond cut in those blinkers next time to help eliminate that. No biggy, but we will watch that. And, he rode him left handed which I love. Left, then right handed. Man that works a lot on the lead. Still don't see it as often as you should IMO but I absolutely LOVED that. And, I am left handed so it makes perfect sense too me.
The Jerkens is logical. Let's see. As for two turns, the horse is still learning each race and will need to settle into a niche somewhere along the way. Like speed, or position or long or whatever. Real nice problem to have as this horse is really talented. 21 and 2/5ths ! Whew. But backs off it to 23 1/5 second quarter. THAT is SPECIAL JBEX. A bunch of horses cannot do that.
He has a ton of potential. It will be fun to watch his progression.

My first thought is he would need to be taught about 2 turns and that takes time. Maybe if he gets a 3-4 month break like late this year? Just a guess. Just don't know the horse at all from a personality standpoint but he is in real good hands. If I had to guess, I would say that this horse can do just about everything. He is in rare air, or certainly has a chance to be.

Real nice hit and call JBEX!

[str]

maybe the last sentence should be "have seen" as we have watched him in 4 races now..my 1st thought would be he might be difficult to get to settle on the front end of a route

This would all be on the mental side of things IMO. He would need to have a chance to understand that, I would guess. Sometimes they don't. More do though. The jockey probably knows already. There is a lot of talking going on between rider and horse that we don't hear. Body language speaks well typically. Prat will relay that to the trainer. Fun stuff. A Gun Runner that has no problem going 21 2/5ths. LOL. Look out !

[str]

Hey all, we do have a lot going on in here these days but wanted to take a minute and give a shout out to BATT . He is most likely fighting those fires in Calif. as we speak and just hope he is OK.

Thank you for your service.

Stay safe Batt! We're thinking about you.

[mcaulay777]

This is more of a observation then a question. This is a time a year where i seem to bet a lot of Races. Since going to Indy i play there a lot now during the week but weather has played havoc and when there off the turf racing is a disaster of short fields .See if you agree Saratoga hands down when it is dry destroys Del Mar the first week here at Del Mar has stunk and always has the last few years if you watch it on Fan Duel in sure at the track you don't care i know i didn't i just loved being there.But Saratoga to me becomes unplayable on Sat and Sun too many big races and 2y0s it seems not fun but still a good follow along but Wed - Friday it is a blast i have a lot of fun.Am i wrong sorry to be long winded again.

[JBEX]

appreciate the feedback str..
one of the things you told me when I asked if you'd look at his debut was a big part of me thinking he might be something special..it was regarding him dropping back likely do to not liking dirt kickback .. once he got away from that he came on again and just missed .. you said it was unusual that a horse would recover from that in a debut race and would be worth following up on .. lot of credit goes to you on formulating a strong opinion of him as obviously I never would have picked up on that


it will be interesting assuming they do go to the jerkens stakes what will be the next move if it's a win or a good effort ..I like your idea of taking some time off to access what direction to take as I feel it's far from clear cut..I think they would at least give routing a try if he shows signs he might do well at it and being he's by gun runner..don't think he's going to wind up being a top sprinter .. my early guess would be a flat mile will be his strength .. the sire allows him to go further and also adds class which imo is real important to handle that tough in between distance ..heck it's not out of the question that he might meet up with DM in that race .. how great would it be to see that !!

[str]

This is more of a observation then a question. This is a time a year where i seem to bet a lot of Races. Since going to Indy i play there a lot now during the week but weather has played havoc and when there off the turf racing is a disaster of short fields .See if you agree Saratoga hands down when it is dry destroys Del Mar the first week here at Del Mar has stunk and always has the last few years if you watch it on Fan Duel in sure at the track you don't care i know i didn't i just loved being there.But Saratoga to me becomes unplayable on Sat and Sun too many big races and 2y0s it seems not fun but still a good follow along but Wed - Friday it is a blast i have a lot of fun.Am i wrong sorry to be long winded again.

I do agree that Saratoga is the premier meet of the year in the U.S. I don't think it is close.

And I do understand that weather and scratches can deflate the enthusiasm anywhere with short fields. It does with many people I'm sure.

Being at the track is an experience much like seeing a baseball game live instead of on TV. Both work, but being there will always be special to me and it sounds like you as well.
I actually remember when I was young that big races for me, were more difficult to handicap than the cheap horses or maidens. I cut my teeth at CharlesTown as well as Md. and I simply felt more comfortable and a little more in rhythm with claimers than I was stake horses. I don't think you are alone with that feeling. It's actually a good thing IMO that you DO KNOW your strengths and weaknesses. That's a must have IMO for a player in any sport. So if Wed. Through Friday are your most comfortable cards to play, maybe shift your handle slightly if you already do not, and instead of a 50-50 weight on plays all week, you try 65-35 weight, meaning the more comfortable you are with a card, the small bit more you play and the opposite shift for weekends in handle. Keeping score of your profit and loss for Wed. - Friday vs. Sat. and Sunday might help you see clearer as to why you enjoy one over the other. Like a game within the game. I did that when I was betting in high school and it taught me a lot about myself.
And you won't believe who taught me that. It was an old bookie named Mickey. Loved that guy. Lost plenty to him over a few years but learned a lot. Kind of like paying for some college courses. Hahaha. He was something else.

And no sir, you are not wrong for being long winded. I'm just as guilty as you if not more.

All the best Sir.

[str]

appreciate the feedback str..
one of the things you told me when I asked if you'd look at his debut was a big part of me thinking he might be something special..it was regarding him dropping back likely do to not liking dirt kickback .. once he got away from that he came on again and just missed .. you said it was unusual that a horse would recover from that in a debut race and would be worth following up on .. lot of credit goes to you on formulating a strong opinion of him as obviously I never would have picked up on that


it will be interesting assuming they do go to the jerkens stakes what will be the next move if it's a win or a good effort ..I like your idea of taking some time off to access what direction to take as I feel it's far from clear cut..I think they would at least give routing a try if he shows signs he might do well at it and being he's by gun runner..don't think he's going to wind up being a top sprinter .. my early guess would be a flat mile will be his strength .. the sire allows him to go further and also adds class which imo is real important to handle that tough in between distance ..heck it's not out of the question that he might meet up with DM in that race .. how great would it be to see that !!

My take on our stable Lol. I wish !
With these top tier horses, they are so fast, and have so much talent, the mental really comes into play with some of them. I've said it a ton before, but they are really all just a little different mentally. And if something occurs and they are not careful, they can lock on that and disrupt their own progression . Kingsbarns is the poster horse for that. Deterministic to a lesser extent. World Record will face an opportunity to become a relax or go push button type most likely with his next start. I am really optimistic about him going forward because he blasted off early, but seemed to come right back to the rider after establishing his spot in front. That should never be taken for granted. That was really impressive in my book. WR has a chance to really shine from here out.


The Ky. Derby can cook a horse in a minute and we saw that up close with KB. It has taken a year to get straight again, and for the moment, he is. Can he fall into that groove? I sure hope so. I was watching some Saratoga yesterday and heard the 2nd string trying to say that the three year olds could easily dominate the rest of the year with such a weak 4 year old or older group of boys going long. And while they are asked to provide many opinions whether they actually have one or not, with this 3 year old crop getting better which they normally do about now, KB isn't even registering in peoples minds right now. That is just fine with me.

Saw that Deterministic is pointing for the Saratoga Derby. Clement says that if he can't handle that, blame me. I love that! He takes the focus off the horse and puts the heat on himself. You don't always see a trainer do that. Every year around Saratoga time, Clement shows me more and more. Simply put, he is a GREAT trainer.

[str]

And a horse not in our group but I saw yesterday. Silver Knott GB

I watched this horse go wire to wire for 1 3/8ths on the turf.

He ran the last 5/8ths of this race in 58 1/5th.

The last 3/8ths in 34 3/5ths.

What in the heck did I just see?



Oh MY !

That's incredible.

[JBEX]

as much as I would've liked to see DM go in the jerkens I think this is the right move..has momentum going that way and don't mess with his head now..understand I don't know the inside scoop and am just speaking as an outside observer of pp's..just the idea you could consider 7f dirt or 1 3/16 turf for a next start speaks loudly about his talent..doesn't seem like the extra furlong and a half should bother him but then again hitting g1 competition in your 2nd lifetime turf race and going that much further is not an easy task regardless how talented you are..if he winds up establishing himself as a stakes winning turf horse they could always give the dirt another go ..even if they don't the fact he accomplished what he did in his first two starts will probably add to his stallion value..KB I'm sure will be standing at spendthrift and have a hunch the other two will also be stallions at some level when their racing career ends.. the time to do some resume building is here for all of them

[JBEX]

And a horse not in our group but I saw yesterday. Silver Knott GB

I watched this horse go wire to wire for 1 3/8ths on the turf.

He ran the last 5/8ths of this race in 58 1/5th.

The last 3/8ths in 34 3/5ths.

What in the heck did I just see?



Oh MY !

That's incredible.

really is .. wow !

[JBEX]

just thought about this and maybe I'm going a little overboard..the chad brown "filly" (headline numbers) who crushed msw at a mile in her 1st start @ aqu earlier this month

#1 way too obvious win and the others we follow weren't .. KB DM and WR were all factor in the trips in their debuts to form an opinion and not blowout wins ..the latter actually finished 3rd by <1 length from the winner

#2 with her pedigree imo is already enough to establish her as a broodmare ..sure would like to see her continue to develop but I think ,for obvious reasons, it's much more interesting with a colt having the potential to be a stallion

[str]

just thought about this and maybe I'm going a little overboard..the chad brown "filly" (headline numbers) who crushed msw at a mile in her 1st start @ aqu earlier this month

#1 way too obvious win and the others we follow weren't .. KB DM and WR were all factor in the trips in their debuts to form an opinion and not blowout wins ..the latter actually finished 3rd by <1 length from the winner

#2 with her pedigree imo is already enough to establish her as a broodmare ..sure would like to see her continue to develop but I think ,for obvious reasons, it's much more interesting with a colt having the potential to be a stallion

Headline Numbers certainly has a chance to be special. An obvious win indeed. The whole world will be on her for now on. No pressure.

[Madison]

And a horse not in our group but I saw yesterday. Silver Knott GB

I watched this horse go wire to wire for 1 3/8ths on the turf.

He ran the last 5/8ths of this race in 58 1/5th.

The last 3/8ths in 34 3/5ths.

What in the heck did I just see?



Oh MY !

That's incredible.

Been on this guy for 6 months. Value GONE.