Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for the detailed explanation. Might let the poster know.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The rider was Rick Knott. never really heard of him but do not think he's a bug.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Career

8,250

693

826

960

$5,771,992

a vet here STR made over 8k Starts.

[str]

Career

8,250

693

826

960

$5,771,992

a vet here STR made over 8k Starts.

I had to look this rider up.

He is 53 and had only rode 11 horses this year prior to that race.

I know you know me better than to think I was trying to bash the rider but it was clear that the rider was either not fit strength wise, or young and inexperienced. It was the 1st one.

When you are in your 50's and riding a 1 1/16th race, you better be fit. He was not. It was pretty obvious. Beyond that, this horse is a n/w 2 lifetime plodder.

The horse ran back in the same race 8 days later. It was only a 4 horse field and the horse trailed the entire race.

It makes much more sense now.
Actually, I guess I did bash the rider some for hitting the horse 6 times every 2 seconds in the same place. I stand behind that. It is dumb. I think he lost his hold going into the first turn because of rust or fitness. Probably rust. And I have to think he would be the first one to agree with that.
All the best EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I had to look this rider up.

He is 53 and had only rode 11 horses this year prior to that race.

I know you know me better than to think I was trying to bash the rider but it was clear that the rider was either not fit strength wise, or young and inexperienced. It was the 1st one.

When you are in your 50's and riding a 1 1/16th race, you better be fit. He was not. It was pretty obvious. Beyond that, this horse is a n/w 2 lifetime plodder.

The horse ran back in the same race 8 days later. It was only a 4 horse field and the horse trailed the entire race.

It makes much more sense now.
Actually, I guess I did bash the rider some for hitting the horse 6 times every 2 seconds in the same place. I stand behind that. It is dumb. I think he lost his hold going into the first turn because of rust or fitness. Probably rust. And I have to think he would be the first one to agree with that.
All the best EZ.

[JBEX]

"parx racing" has a you tube channel (didn't know) that has replays..looks like today's won't be up till tomorrow though..bit of a pain in the ass getting there within the channel although there's probably
an easier way to do it via search. lot's of spinning to get to the most recent races ..I'll post a link tomorrow if I can

they have not posted yesterday's replays yet..when they do I'll put up the link to that race

[JBEX]

they have not posted yesterday's replays yet..when they do I'll put up the link to that race

abe's army #6

https://youtu.be/_rk0wfzvEeU

.

[str]

abe's army #6

https://youtu.be/_rk0wfzvEeU

.

He broke slow and immediately was somewhat out of sorts. His head was up a little and he looked a bit intimidated. But it all went in the toilet at about 20-22 seconds on the replay when he switched to his left lead which drops you down towards the rail about 3-4 feet. That put him in a direct path of the dirt kickback. He starts jumping up and down having most likely never experienced that before. He learned from it so I think he will be better for it. Not that he wants to settle , rate and close. He wants to be on or close to the lead.

Let's see if he breaks better next out and I would not be surprised if he runs back in a shadow roll ( that fuzzy strip that goes over the nose area about 1/2 way up to his eyes. That helps keep a horses head down which allows for more reach with the front legs). He does not HAVE to have it, but won't be surprised if he shows up with it.

For him, it's all about being closer early I think. We will see.

Thanks for the link JBEX.

[JBEX]

He broke slow and immediately was somewhat out of sorts. His head was up a little and he looked a bit intimidated. But it all went in the toilet at about 20-22 seconds on the replay when he switched to his left lead which drops you down towards the rail about 3-4 feet. That put him in a direct path of the dirt kickback. He starts jumping up and down having most likely never experienced that before. He learned from it so I think he will be better for it. Not that he wants to settle , rate and close. He wants to be on or close to the lead.

Let's see if he breaks better next out and I would not be surprised if he runs back in a shadow roll ( that fuzzy strip that goes over the nose area about 1/2 way up to his eyes. That helps keep a horses head down which allows for more reach with the front legs). He does not HAVE to have it, but won't be surprised if he shows up with it.

For him, it's all about being closer early I think. We will see.

Thanks for the link JBEX.

no problem str..have to keep my eye out for him although being a parx runner he may slip by me..
next couple of starts will possibly be buying low opportunities


just finished with this on my notepad before seeing your response..if it's too late no problem and maybe you'd want to give it a look after the race



bel R1


a 2yo msw for statebreds at bel R1..two caught my eye..going to try and beat the pletcher/clement entry and brad cox has a nicely bred fts who i respect but i feel even @ 5-1 ml he's kind of obvious also..think there's 1 or 2 others who are competive but just wanted to mention the obvious big trainer horses


#8 who me (6-1) my pick

michele nevin fts .. i realize that fts are not the preferred path for dick dutow protege's but what caught my eye is this one
cost a lot for the pedigree ..not only the multiple of the stud fee but also nothing from the dam..she has an excellent roi with turf horses and nice success with the jock over a limited # of mounts


#3 m c double (15-1)

just that saez getting back on and he's tremendous riding for rudy.. caught a sloppy track in debut and it wasnt a horrible run..terrible trip last start but much lesser jock was riding.. rudy also being another dd protege this one making his 3rd start





.

[JBEX]

belmont

R11 #3 hezastonecoldfox (12-1)

hey str

thought a few interesting things going on with this one at what most likely will be big odds


only 3 years old and ran very credibly as a 2yo last fall which includes just missing in his debut here at 53-1..might bode well for him running off the long layoff today


returned exactly in 4 weeks and ran a race similar to his 4th career start (speed to half/fade)

returns in exactly 4 weeks again for his 3rd start and breaking from the 12 post wires the field at 8-1

i brought up the similiar line in 2nd and 4th starts because after his 4th start there probably was not an opportunity to go back on the turf due to the season


does nothing in his final start at parx but that was on the dirt and all the others were turf races

works are kind of slow but based on his natural speed i would think that might be less of a concern..probably just a get out and go situation so the fact he's one of the lesser
jocks might not be as important.
6f turf at belmont plays to speed
and that of course can't hurt him

being inside the 5 a big negative and i could see someone tossing him just because of that.
it's a shame because i feel other things line up nicely for him






.

[str]

no problem str..have to keep my eye out for him although being a parx runner he may slip by me..
next couple of starts will possibly be buying low opportunities


just finished with this on my notepad before seeing your response..if it's too late no problem and maybe you'd want to give it a look after the race



bel R1


a 2yo msw for statebreds at bel R1..two caught my eye..going to try and beat the pletcher/clement entry and brad cox has a nicely bred fts who i respect but i feel even @ 5-1 ml he's kind of obvious also..think there's 1 or 2 others who are competive but just wanted to mention the obvious big trainer horses


#8 who me (6-1) my pick

michele nevin fts .. i realize that fts are not the preferred path for dick dutow protege's but what caught my eye is this one
cost a lot for the pedigree ..not only the multiple of the stud fee but also nothing from the dam..she has an excellent roi with turf horses and nice success with the jock over a limited # of mounts


#3 m c double (15-1)

just that saez getting back on and he's tremendous riding for rudy.. caught a sloppy track in debut and it wasnt a horrible run..terrible trip last start but much lesser jock was riding.. rudy also being another dd protege this one making his 3rd start





.

Sorry I couldn't get to this one yesterday. I was at work early and didn't see this until well after the race.

Michelle's horse will improve in the next two starts probably.

Rudy's might need 40k claimers at this point from what little I saw.

I did not see the actual race. Only going off charts and form.

All the best JBEX.

[str]

belmont

R11 #3 hezastonecoldfox (12-1)

hey str

thought a few interesting things going on with this one at what most likely will be big odds


only 3 years old and ran very credibly as a 2yo last fall which includes just missing in his debut here at 53-1..might bode well for him running off the long layoff today


returned exactly in 4 weeks and ran a race similar to his 4th career start (speed to half/fade)

returns in exactly 4 weeks again for his 3rd start and breaking from the 12 post wires the field at 8-1

i brought up the similiar line in 2nd and 4th starts because after his 4th start there probably was not an opportunity to go back on the turf due to the season


does nothing in his final start at parx but that was on the dirt and all the others were turf races

works are kind of slow but based on his natural speed i would think that might be less of a concern..probably just a get out and go situation so the fact he's one of the lesser
jocks might not be as important.
6f turf at belmont plays to speed
and that of course can't hurt him

being inside the 5 a big negative and i could see someone tossing him just because of that.
it's a shame because i feel other things line up nicely for him






.

Agree that the race is void of a lot of early speed. He will need to deal with the 5 who drops in to what looks like a decent spot.

Not impossible having shown he can run well off the bench. Agree with your overall assessment. He should be a price and has a chance to be very overlooked. Gotta think people know that 6F turf plays to speed and this race doesn't have much in it.
Watch the board and see if it's worth a swing.

GL if you play JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: taking out the MD circuit which is your favorite circuit? For me it's NYRA. THX.

[str]

Hey STR: taking out the MD circuit which is your favorite circuit? For me it's NYRA. THX.

I guess it would be NY. The best riders by far. but... the best players as well.

I would have to look at the pool size of Charlestown. I don't know what's going on there anymore but it was a cash cow back in the day.
Always did well there if you put in the time. Sentimental reasons as well.

And yeah, Md. would be easiest to transition back into. Mainly because I would know exactly where to look. Might take a month or two to get set up right but with patience( a must no matter where you play), that is an easy choice.

I don't think you can go wrong at NYRA racing EZ.

Good luck at the Spa! And in your contest. I'll be rooting for you.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I guess it would be NY. The best riders by far. but... the best players as well.

I would have to look at the pool size of Charlestown. I don't know what's going on there anymore but it was a cash cow back in the day.
Always did well there if you put in the time. Sentimental reasons as well.

And yeah, Md. would be easiest to transition back into. Mainly because I would know exactly where to look. Might take a month or two to get set up right but with patience( a must no matter where you play), that is an easy choice.

I don't think you can go wrong at NYRA racing EZ.

Good luck at the Spa! And in your contest. I'll be rooting for you.

THX STR I am the underdog in the SAR/DMR contest for sure especially with my recent efforts. But hoping 1 track each time period to study will be prove beneficial for the bottom line. and yeah I like CT as well. fun racing there. Have a good day.

[str]

THX STR I am the underdog in the SAR/DMR contest for sure especially with my recent efforts. But hoping 1 track each time period to study will be prove beneficial for the bottom line. and yeah I like CT as well. fun racing there. Have a good day.

Charlestown tip of the day.

ALWAYS, look real hard at the far outside horses going 4 1/2F.

It's a huge edge with the turn so close.

Yes, you have to have the horse but it it's absolutely the best place to be leaving the gate at that distance.

Hope it helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Charlestown tip of the day.

ALWAYS, look real hard at the far outside horses going 4 1/2F.

It's a huge edge with the turn so close.

Yes, you have to have the horse but it it's absolutely the best place to be leaving the gate at that distance.

Hope it helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: The Mountain R4 tonight. The #5 Torianne a 7 year old Mare FTS. What is the rationale for this? Is it to make her more appealing to breeders? Just a guess. THX.

[str]

STR: The Mountain R4 tonight. The #5 Torianne a 7 year old Mare FTS. What is the rationale for this? Is it to make her more appealing to breeders? Just a guess. THX.

I did not see the PP's so I don't know this for sure but in most of these cases, which you see at W. Va. tracks more so than anywhere else it seems, this is probably a homebred or a horse that tried to get to the races several years ago. She probably was sidelined by what, at the time, was a significant injury. But with all the time that has passed, that injury is now fine. Combine that with the probability that maybe they tried to breed her( especially if she was a homebred) and she did not take, so, they put her back in training.

Yeah I know, but this happens at Charlestown and I'm sure Waterford ( it used to be) , and has forever. It's almost like these kind of horses are pets. Probably trained on a farm, shipped in to work, something weird like that. Husband and wife owner/trainer likely. And of course, it's MSW. Don't want to risk losing her. Again, yeah, I know.

So the funny thing is, off that race, she can actually win. Not sure in a MSW race but run her for Md. 5k off that race and it puts her close. Doubt it will happen though. Typically it does not.

So I assume a ton with my conclusions in this post but what I said is usually the case. If not, my apologies to the connections. It's just that I've seen this thing go on for 50 years. Some things just never change.

As for the broodmare value, I don't know her breeding but I would have to think it would be nil unless she is well bred. And an unraced mare might be worth more than a mare that broke her maiden at Waterford, er, Mountaineer.

All the best EZ.

[str]

Edit: From the previous post. An update and two comments.

(Thanks for the link JBEX).

I have now seen the PP's . It was a home bred. Most likely a pet. The owner/trainer/husband/wife( I guess), owned the unraced mare of this horse as well and bred that one as well.

The horse did work fast which looks like every 3 weeks or so. They might train at the track but with that work schedule, typically that would be a horse that shipped in from the farm to work.

There is no monetary value as a broodmare unless the horse wins something big. Extremely doubtful.

So, pretty much like I guessed. But don't get me wrong. Racing has plenty of these types of people. Meaning, they love horses, and really love their horses. They work hard, bother nobody, and try to make something of the horse.

Do I knock the business model? Yes. But are they doing this for the business? No. They do it because they love it. And it is there choice as to how to do it.

If I am a trainer competing against them, I am trying to beat them. But if I am looking from afar and seeing what they are doing, well, if they are anything like they vast, vast majority of horse people I've known from the track, and I bet they are, they are also the type of person that would stop at night on a back road to help a stranger in need change a tire. That is priceless. And seemingly rarer everyday.

The world can use all those types of people it can get. I wish them nothing but the best.


Comments:

1. Yesterday marked one year ago that my son had his near fatal motorcycle wreck. I am very happy to report that he is at about 90% recovered. That's most likely as good as it will get but that in itself is remarkable. We were very lucky. Thank you to all that sent me pm's or posts. I really did appreciate them.



2. We have all wandered around on this forum and probably others and seen some seemingly nice people. But we also have seen our share of hateful, mean spirited posts. Some of the things that are said back and forth are terrible IMO.

But here, in the horse forum, it is rare and likely nonexistent to see someone lash out at all as compared to other parts of the forum.

I have told the stories about how truly special a lot of people on the horse racing backside are. It is not rare there. It is commonplace. When something happens to a staunch rival or the smallest outfit at the track, EVERYONE comes running to help. It's almost like a " we're all in this together thing". The old joke at the track was that the big fences surrounding the track grounds were not there to keep others out. They were there to keep us in.

The horse forum here seems similar to that. That is not everywhere. I posted a bit at another horse forum and quickly left because there were some real jackasses there. And the fools dominated the place. But not here. The posters in here are friendly, helpful, and passionate about the game. But also towards one another. We root for each other not pull against one another.

This horse forum , if I try , can remind me of the comradery that was always present on the backside. Where the rich, the poor, native or foreign, black or white, male or female, all worked to try and beat one another but ALWAYS had one another's back. All of you in here should be proud to be a part of this community. A community that reminds me of a place in my past that I truly loved. I know I am.

Thanks for your time.

Good luck everyone. May all your photos be winning ones.

[BetMiddler]

Danse Macabre (Army Mule) is running at Colonial today, race 7 M/L fave 4-1

[JBEX]

on the mnr firster I think it's great that some people just love the horses and the game enough to breed there own with the realization ,as you said, that's it's more than likely to be a pet than a serious racehorse..
maybe every once on a while they have a little success on the track but it's the exception by far



glad to hear your son's doing well ..90% petty darn good considering the serious nature of the accident..
congratulations on that

agree about the horse forum..good bunch of guys,lot's of camraderie and passionate about the sport..have enjoyed my time in here for over a decade now

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR THX again for the rundown on the 7 year old FTS. Makes sense. And glad to hear your son at 90%. that is great news. As for the horse sub forum and your comments could not agree more. Good bunch of players here. You set the example IMO. The fact you would share your knowledge for free speaks volumes on your character. You love the game and you want to help others understand the game from a trainer perspective. Again like I have wrote in the past you are "THE PLAYERS ADVOCATE." Thx.

[JBEX]

Danse Macabre (Army Mule) is running at Colonial today, race 7 M/L fave 4-1

post 4:33

thanks betmiddler.. tough post (12) for a turf sprint


I like #8 mom's town (12-1) but if not hope dm runs well.. rooting for army mule's progeny to do well as he was an amazing horse



can't see the 12-1 at all .. think will be a lot lower

[Jellymancan]

Great post, str.

Most importantly, glad to hear your son is at 90%, that's more important than anything on here.

Your thread on this forum is the best, and I learn a lot just by seeing your answers to the questions you receive.

Good luck if you're playing the upcoming SPA meet.

[JBEX]

Danse Macabre (Army Mule) is running at Colonial today, race 7 M/L fave 4-1

post 4:33

thanks betmiddler.. tough post (12) for a turf sprint


I like #8 mom's town (12-1) but if not hope dm runs well.. rooting for army mule's progeny to do well as he was an amazing horse



can't see the 12-1 at all .. think will be a lot lower

wins impressively

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: one more question for now. Race #3 Parx today the #3 Holmdel Park hustled hard out of the gate to get the lead. He got the lead alright but nothing left in the tank late. I hate when I play a horse who is hustled hard out of the gate and ridden that way. What is your take on this? THX.

[str]

Danse Macabre (Army Mule) is running at Colonial today, race 7 M/L fave 4-1

Hard to dismiss these Army Mule babies. They are solid.

Thanks for the heads up Bet !

Hope you had it.

[str]

Hey STR: one more question for now. Race #3 Parx today the #3 Holmdel Park hustled hard out of the gate to get the lead. He got the lead alright but nothing left in the tank late. I hate when I play a horse who is hustled hard out of the gate and ridden that way. What is your take on this? THX.

Yeah EZ. I don't know the form or the circumstances but when a horse is hard used early, you find yourself just waiting for them to run out of gas. That's a tough watch. Seems like the race takes 5 minutes when that happens.
Was there a ton of speed and the rider had no choice or did the horse get the wrong signal and just run off and never relax?

[BOA12]

Edit: From the previous post. An update and two comments.

(Thanks for the link JBEX).

I have now seen the PP's . It was a home bred. Most likely a pet. The owner/trainer/husband/wife( I guess), owned the unraced mare of this horse as well and bred that one as well.

The horse did work fast which looks like every 3 weeks or so. They might train at the track but with that work schedule, typically that would be a horse that shipped in from the farm to work.

There is no monetary value as a broodmare unless the horse wins something big. Extremely doubtful.

So, pretty much like I guessed. But don't get me wrong. Racing has plenty of these types of people. Meaning, they love horses, and really love their horses. They work hard, bother nobody, and try to make something of the horse.

Do I knock the business model? Yes. But are they doing this for the business? No. They do it because they love it. And it is there choice as to how to do it.

If I am a trainer competing against them, I am trying to beat them. But if I am looking from afar and seeing what they are doing, well, if they are anything like they vast, vast majority of horse people I've known from the track, and I bet they are, they are also the type of person that would stop at night on a back road to help a stranger in need change a tire. That is priceless. And seemingly rarer everyday.

The world can use all those types of people it can get. I wish them nothing but the best.


Comments:

1. Yesterday marked one year ago that my son had his near fatal motorcycle wreck. I am very happy to report that he is at about 90% recovered. That's most likely as good as it will get but that in itself is remarkable. We were very lucky. Thank you to all that sent me pm's or posts. I really did appreciate them.



2. We have all wandered around on this forum and probably others and seen some seemingly nice people. But we also have seen our share of hateful, mean spirited posts. Some of the things that are said back and forth are terrible IMO.

But here, in the horse forum, it is rare and likely nonexistent to see someone lash out at all as compared to other parts of the forum.

I have told the stories about how truly special a lot of people on the horse racing backside are. It is not rare there. It is commonplace. When something happens to a staunch rival or the smallest outfit at the track, EVERYONE comes running to help. It's almost like a " we're all in this together thing". The old joke at the track was that the big fences surrounding the track grounds were not there to keep others out. They were there to keep us in.

The horse forum here seems similar to that. That is not everywhere. I posted a bit at another horse forum and quickly left because there were some real jackasses there. And the fools dominated the place. But not here. The posters in here are friendly, helpful, and passionate about the game. But also towards one another. We root for each other not pull against one another.

This horse forum , if I try , can remind me of the comradery that was always present on the backside. Where the rich, the poor, native or foreign, black or white, male or female, all worked to try and beat one another but ALWAYS had one another's back. All of you in here should be proud to be a part of this community. A community that reminds me of a place in my past that I truly loved. I know I am.

Thanks for your time.

Good luck everyone. May all your photos be winning ones.

A great brotherhood revealed.

[JBEX]

Hard to dismiss these Army Mule babies. They are solid.

Thanks for the heads up Bet !

Hope you had it.

at auction 143 sold

his top 10 foals avg'd around $320k
11-20 avg'd around $150k


2020 stud fee $10k
21,22 stud fee $7.5k




pretty good multiple

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah EZ. I don't know the form or the circumstances but when a horse is hard used early, you find yourself just waiting for them to run out of gas. That's a tough watch. Seems like the race takes 5 minutes when that happens.
Was there a ton of speed and the rider had no choice or did the horse get the wrong signal and just run off and never relax?

OK STR yeah the rider was moving his hands back and forth in a furious action to get the lead. If I can will post a link to the replay from You tube if they post it. thx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Charlestown tip of the day.

ALWAYS, look real hard at the far outside horses going 4 1/2F.

It's a huge edge with the turn so close.

Yes, you have to have the horse but it it's absolutely the best place to be leaving the gate at that distance.

Hope it helps.

Looks like at CT STR they use a chute for those 4.5 Panel races. ,

[str]

Looks like at CT STR they use a chute for those 4.5 Panel races. ,

Yes they do EZ.

Watch some of those and I think you will see what I mean.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yes they do EZ.

Watch some of those and I think you will see what I mean.

OK watched last night and the turn did not seem that close. maybe I am missing it will check again tonight. thx.