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I see bayerness's last 3 were on off tracks..tough raceComment -
yeah she was impressive..I'm always a little skeptical when they've done their best running on the slop but she had no trouble today..I did notice afterwards that she broke her maiden first out as a 2yo at keeneland on a fast track..even though that was a while ago it speaks a lot to her abilityComment -
and ability to run well on a fast trackComment -
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hey str
R5 at the spa has the best msw you'll probably see at the meet which is no surprise on whitney day..tony dutrow has one of the big pedigree firsters..thought you'd like to knowComment -
This is a really great race to see what I talk about sometimes. Watch your horse only and watch her head and how she carries herself as the go down the backside . Her right eye is clear and there is no kickback for her to deal with. Then, as those two horses come up outside of her, you can almost see her looking at those outside horses and saying what the he’ll is this. Because she is distracted she losses focus thus slowing down occurs. Her mind is wandering at this point. Then, she gets just far enough behind that the spray and sting from the dirt flying back starts to hit her in the face and eyes and she starts running like dear run, kind of jumping up and down.
Obviously, neither of these things had happened to her before in her life.
So just as they straighten away for home, the rider hits her right handed with the whip. That gets her total attention and she starts to level off. She is now starting to rally but only slightly. Then, as they fan out in front of her a bit, they go a little wide and that allows her to get inside enough to not be hit with the spray kick back of dirt. And, With her right eye is clear again, the rider hits her again and regaining focus on running with no distractions, she darn near comes back to win.
Really great race to see what I talk about.
She was much the best JBEX .
Very cool race.Comment -
I agree ..right eye and dirt kickback for young horses something you've discussed many times and got a chance to see it in play here..even though she finished 2nd might still be a little value with the way she did it
really can understand how a 2yo fts might be distracted by by a horse coming up on its right side for the first time
thanks strComment -
have another for you..understand if you can't get to these and kind of a pick and small write up anyway
colonial R2 on Tuesday ...2yo statebred msw turf sprint (understand md breds are allowed to run in these)
ones I'm interested in are the larry johnson homebreds who are both trained by trombetta..know we've briefly discussed lj before at least once..believe you said a speed win early guy if I remember correctly
both are making their 2nd career grass starts and are out of very productive dams who have produced multiple turf winners..leaning more on #7 clouds of white (8-1)..like that last running line passing 4 horses while losing <3 lengths throughout the race..that race was 6 ticks faster
than the others was run the day after..figurewise about a 6 length difference also..winner of that race was a repeat winner..also pimental a better turf jockey than karamanos
any thoughts on either or any of the others you see feel free to mention
.Last edited by JBEX; 08-09-21, 08:56 PM.Comment -
also see #7 is adding blinkersComment -
With this race having drawn pretty weak IMO as far as trainers that win, and because that owner typically does win early with babies , and yes, speed as a rule, even though the form is rough, I can’t blame you a bit for going with this horse with the addition of blinkers and other factors.
Some of these other connections would have been auto tosses back in the day and it doesn’t look like that has changed much.
If the horse was a Firster , it would be 2nd choice probably so why not Take a swing.
How about Hammy’s horse that went for 1k at the sales last October.
That’s crazy !Comment -
yeah..really interesting someone would pay that little with the understanding of the expenses involved to get her to the races..they must see something..like the name lol and they certainly will be if this one pans out..amazing thing is there were 2 of the sires that actually sold for less
thanks strComment -
colonial
R4 #4 some nights (9-2)
thought you'd find this one interesting on a couple of fronts..first joe rocco jr riding and he's having a great meet..the other is her auction price and what she's done..been fairly competitive against much better and finally in a spot that makes sense as far as distance and surface goes..looks like she got the worst of it trip wise last out..sure passed a lot of horses from the first to the stretch callComment -
R5 #5 hot rod rumble (10-1)
saratoga
hey str
expensive (and relative) asmussen 2nd time starter who did little running in his debut over 3 weeks ago ..was a muddy track and the horse was bet well..you think if an expensive horse like this doesn't take to the track or like mud kicked in his face the instructions might be don't force it more so than an avg horse ?
side note: as popular as asmussen is he still offers excellent value in msw races ..caught him quite a few times over the years for decent prices
.Last edited by JBEX; 08-11-21, 06:20 PM.Comment -
When you have a regular jock on any of your horses and certainly with a firster, the rider knows not to ask a horse who is obviously uncomfortable with the surface and unable or unwilling to stride out. All that can do is put the horse and rider in harms way. The horse is not going to run well for those that bet on it and slipping and sliding can cause the horse muscle or tendon pulls, or to hit themselves in the legs with their own shoes and that can really suck.
So that conversation as a whole was had long time ago and not needed each time , plus, it’s a negative thought and I always stayed away from that in the paddock just before giving a leg up. Technical thoughts like where the speed is, and individual tendencies, likes or dislikes was all I went with. I always tried to draw up an avenue to winning the race.
As for today, probably worth a try because so much money showed. Obviously showed enough on dry tracks to warrant being bet on the first time so if it’s dry, I think it makes sense.
Good luck if you play JBEX!Comment -
that would add to my confidence in playing him with the understanding that it may be he's just not a runner..we'll see if he takes money again on a dry track which could be telling..it is supposed to be over 100 there today factoring in the heat index ..if he goes certainly starting his career under adverse circumstances..thanks strComment -
hey str
I've noticed this for a while at the west virginia tracks.. maybe penn also?? the msw races for non 2yo' horses are for 3-6 year olds.. what do they have against 7 and up maidens lol ??Comment -
Hey STR: Did you hear that Jorge Navarro Pleaded guilty in the doping scheme? Looks like Jason Servis is still fighting the charges. Navarro Looking at a Max of 5 years in the Big House. Maybe that will deter others. Also Hope your son is making steady progress towards his recovery.Comment -
hey str
saratoga R1 wanted your opinion on what's happening with jose ortiz's ride of choice..he just missed with the 7 in his debut last out and his brother is now riding that one..he chooses to ride a horse for an obscure out of town trainer shipping in from colonial..kind of an interesting choice considering how the other ran in his debut don't you think ?? although the horse he's on ran pretty well in his last start
think we talked about this trainer once before ollie figgins III..his father may have been a jockey or something along those lines ..doesn't affect the handicapping as he has terrible numbers in categories related to this raceComment -
Hey STR: you may be interested in the above contest. GL if you play.Comment -
hey str
scratch the last question ..got the abbreviations for irad and jose mixed up lol
but I see something else a little interesting in R6 which is a 2yo open msw..quite a few I would put into the category of expensive for the specs including tony dutrow's horse #9 don't wait up (10-1) .. says he is winless with firsters but his overall numbers with msw's factoring roi is excellent..works have been solid and steady including a really nice move from the gate in his last..see what you think if you have the timeComment -
Time sensitive , so I will do this one 1st.
Do remember that Tony's stock was waaay down last year and that drags anybody's % down, especially with firsters. So this is what I see.
And no, Tony will not push his babies to the edge like some do. But, if they can run, and he has been shown that by the horse, he will have them a bit more ready to go than normal. Also, if they are bred to go further, which most of his selections are, he wants them to finish more so than break like their hair is on fire. This is not to make them closers or anything like that. It is to allow the horse to have an understanding of where the race ends as well has how to breath. We were taught to teach the horse where the finish line was. Not where their fastest and best stride is early. If they show speed, fine, but it will be them showing it, not him.
So in this case, the horse worked very well out of the gate, We don't know HOW that work set up or went down. Just the final time. Also, when you go to the gate, with a baby, sometimes you can set up a group with another trainer, and other times, it's just the luck of the draw as to how is up there at the gate when you arrive.
With nice horses though, setting something up with another trainer would make sense. I know I would have done that if I didn't have another baby to breeze out of the gate with mine. I know that Tony and Todd talk sometimes and we don't know what horses might have worked with each other but one thing you can do is look at other babies, especially firsters work dates and try and match up gate pairings.
Trainers do not work firsters alone. Always in company out of the gate. So you wait around for other babies or breakers and you don't want to hook some 4 year old , thus trainers arranging gate works together. I see that 3 horses worked out of the gate on the 1st, all in this race. Two for Todd, and Tony's horse. If they worked together, and we don't know that, maybe a clockers report would shed light on that ( they should shed light on that stuff ),looks like Tony's would have finished 2nd, beating the morning line favorite but losing to the horse of Todd's on the AE. Again, speculation but it certainly could have been that. If so, the betting board will show that on both Tony's and Todd's horses I would think.
I see Castallano who has ridden just about all of his best horses. He most likely was on for the workout from the gate. Tony is giving this horse a chance to show what it can do today. But in all probability, the horse will show more next out. Does that mean it can't win today? No way. Sure it can win. But I think next out will be better and the 3rd start better still. We were taught to educate the horse . That is I'm sure, what he has done. That flashy work was all the horse. Tony taught it, showed it, and let him do it if he could. And the horse did.
With that kind of a work, let's watch the money show on the horse. Tony never bets and never discusses that angle so money showing will be clockers, rumors and wise guys. Its just not who he is. My guess is the horse CAN run and represents himself well today barring something unforeseen. But I don't have to tell you, you never know, and we always used to say that "anything can happen with a firster." Usually followed that with, "heck, Secretariat got beat 1st time out.
Good luck if you play JBEX. Thanks for the heads up. I will watch this race today for sure.Comment -
some great perspective there on what he's looking to do with babies first time out..also could explain why his overall
roi is fantastic with msw's..caught at least one and maybe a few big prices along the way
the gate stuff with the babies is very interesting and see what you're saying about 8/1..I bet (no pun) that there's a good chance he did work in company with Todd's horses based on what your saying although no way to know for sure..
the ae for Todd that's not running cost an extraordinary amount for his specs factoring in his sire was I believe significantly less money last year..also uncle mo as the dam sire and sire is way above avg first out..I doubt he'll be a secret though and probably be hammered at the window
be rooting for ad's with the understanding he would be perfectly happy with the kind of race that will set him up for the next few races..thanks for the response strComment -
So way back in the day (mid 80's and earlier) 5 year old maidens were denied stalls in Md., and most east coast major tracks. The only mile track that allowed them was Parx, or Phila. Park, or Keystone then. Same track, they just keep changing the name.
I actually had a 5 year old maiden that shipped in when she was 4 in the fall. Turned out she was working great and against 25k males in my barn. Being 5 when she was ready to run, I had one shot to run her out of town. If she got beat, they were not going to let her come back into my barn at Bowie. Don't remember what the backup plan was. Lol. So I ran her for Fillies and Mares, 4 and 5 year olds Claiming 10k. ( No 6 or ups were eligible), She had not run in 3 years and ran poorly when she was 2.
She won, the barn got happy and that was that. I sent a discreet female rider from Md., starving for mounts up to ride her mainly because I did not trust those riders in Phila. (Never did.) You might remember her name. Julie Krone. Lol.
Shortly thereafter, because so many tracks were running year around which meant smaller fields everywhere, management at many tracks started excepting 5 year old maiden entries. I don't know what the rule is today but I have seen some older than 5 running somewhere.
But back when there were horses everywhere and big fields everywhere, older than 4 years old were denied stalls to make room for younger, better horses. At least in the eyes of management.
So I guess they draw the line at 7 year old maidens now? Lol. I don't know for sure but that is the history behind it.Last edited by str; 08-15-21, 10:29 AM.Comment -
Second question 1st. He had a setback with infection. Another surgery, Unreal, but working on getting out in a couple of days. This crap never seems to end. His spirits are high though so that's a good thing. Thanks EZ, really appreciate it !
As for Navarro, good. Gotta say that I never knew the guy but when I saw that video at the bar at Monmouth watching his horse on TV and acting like the big shot he was sure we was, it screamed to me of a cheating piece of crap. I just felt like I could tell just in his body language. And I know, you can't draw that conclusion from just that, and that is probably true, but the way he dominated and more than that, nobody could get much run out of his horses if they claimed them, that's all I needed to see. NOBODY, is THAT good. NOBODY.
You know how I feel about cheaters and I had to deal with a few of them in Md. in the late 80's and 90's. One in particular that turned my stomach. They changed the game for me and made it no fun. In hind sight, I should have left a few years before I did. But it was a huge decision that quite frankly I never had considered ever having to make 10 years earlier. So I guess it took time to finally leave. I loved the game, and I loved being in the game, but the cheating wore me down and I lost my passion for it.
No matter what he gets, it won't be enough for me. Same with the other guy, and any that follow.
All the best EZ.Comment
