Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: I know you are busy so no rush. But when you get a chance what is your opinion of the tactics used by Paco Lopez on the #6 going after the heavy Favorite in the #5? Dirty racing or part of the game? VId replay in Post #5110. Thx.

[JBEX]

hey str

R2 @ colonial downs is a 2yo msw and wanted your opinion on a few of the horses (4)..2 of them I don't like because I think they will be overbet


#3 gina (9-5)

mm one of the best debut sires out there.. and as you can see the bottom is excellent..only thing is godolphin,stidham and paco are going to attract a lot of money there
and the trainer is considerably overbet in msw races (not horrible though).. the quick works at fair hill will also attract attention..want to try and beat at low odds


#5 louella street (12-1)

the year he was auctioned the fee was $10k more than what the breeders paid..factoring that and how productive the dam has been I view this as about an avg purchase price..still an above avg pedigree in this field.
the trainer is an excellent investment with maidens ..steady works at timonium and maybe you can shed some light on working there as I know it's a bullring (maybe it doesn't matter) using a 7lb bug so couldn't hurt if she has some speed


#6 zoomed in (6-1)

solid trainer but one of the most overbet that I've seen overall and especially with msw's..auto toss for me



#10 sequist (5-1)

stud fee is not the current one but the amount shown with sire stats on the right ..it didn't change from what the breeders paid to the auction year..sire is one of the promising future stars..dam has peruvian roots and was a good runner but who knows what the competition was ..like the work pattern and looks like they asked her for a little more last two..trainer while not having flashy % #'s is very undervalued in msw races based on roi..obviously breaking from the 10 hole at 5f might not be the best thing although I know you like the outside post ..nobody breaks outside of you and a chance to get position and draw the speed in
(maybe I'm close there..believe you called it "out of the box" ??)



so for me it'd be 5 or 10 or possibly both..tough to separate although getting a potential big price with the former is very appealing

[str]

hey str

R2 @ colonial downs is a 2yo msw and wanted your opinion on a few of the horses (4)..2 of them I don't like because I think they will be overbet


#3 gina (9-5)

mm one of the best debut sires out there.. and as you can see the bottom is excellent..only thing is godolphin,stidham and paco are going to attract a lot of money there
and the trainer is considerably overbet in msw races (not horrible though).. the quick works at fair hill will also attract attention..want to try and beat at low odds


#5 louella street (12-1)

the year he was auctioned the fee was $10k more than what the breeders paid..factoring that and how productive the dam has been I view this as about an avg purchase price..still an above avg pedigree in this field.
the trainer is an excellent investment with maidens ..steady works at timonium and maybe you can shed some light on working there as I know it's a bullring (maybe it doesn't matter) using a 7lb bug so couldn't hurt if she has some speed


#6 zoomed in (6-1)

solid trainer but one of the most overbet that I've seen overall and especially with msw's..auto toss for me



#10 sequist (5-1)

stud fee is not the current one but the amount shown with sire stats on the right ..it didn't change from what the breeders paid to the auction year..sire is one of the promising future stars..dam has peruvian roots and was a good runner but who knows what the competition was ..like the work pattern and looks like they asked her for a little more last two..trainer while not having flashy % #'s is very undervalued in msw races based on roi..obviously breaking from the 10 hole at 5f might not be the best thing although I know you like the outside post ..nobody breaks outside of you and a chance to get position and draw the speed in
(maybe I'm close there..believe you called it "out of the box" ??)



so for me it'd be 5 or 10 or possibly both..tough to separate although getting a potential big price with the former is very appealing

Sorry I missed this but I will go down the line with it anyway asap.

Thanks JBEX

[JBEX]

Sorry I missed this but I will go down the line with it anyway asap.

Thanks JBEX

ok str..like your thoughts even though it's decided

[str]

hey str

R2 @ colonial downs is a 2yo msw and wanted your opinion on a few of the horses (4)..2 of them I don't like because I think they will be overbet


#3 gina (9-5)

mm one of the best debut sires out there.. and as you can see the bottom is excellent..only thing is godolphin,stidham and paco are going to attract a lot of money there
and the trainer is considerably overbet in msw races (not horrible though).. the quick works at fair hill will also attract attention..want to try and beat at low odds


#5 louella street (12-1)

the year he was auctioned the fee was $10k more than what the breeders paid..factoring that and how productive the dam has been I view this as about an avg purchase price..still an above avg pedigree in this field.
the trainer is an excellent investment with maidens ..steady works at timonium and maybe you can shed some light on working there as I know it's a bullring (maybe it doesn't matter) using a 7lb bug so couldn't hurt if she has some speed


#6 zoomed in (6-1)

solid trainer but one of the most overbet that I've seen overall and especially with msw's..auto toss for me



#10 sequist (5-1)

stud fee is not the current one but the amount shown with sire stats on the right ..it didn't change from what the breeders paid to the auction year..sire is one of the promising future stars..dam has peruvian roots and was a good runner but who knows what the competition was ..like the work pattern and looks like they asked her for a little more last two..trainer while not having flashy % #'s is very undervalued in msw races based on roi..obviously breaking from the 10 hole at 5f might not be the best thing although I know you like the outside post ..nobody breaks outside of you and a chance to get position and draw the speed in
(maybe I'm close there..believe you called it "out of the box" ??)



so for me it'd be 5 or 10 or possibly both..tough to separate although getting a potential big price with the former is very appealing

The 3 horse . I agree with everything you said. Looks real solid but probably bet waay down.

The 5 horse. That trainer has had success with babies so that's a plus. The works at Timonium back in the day seems slowish but I have to think they are actually just fine. It's all about the track maintenance and cushion depth. Rest assured it is not that deep or cuppy and dry when the babies are breezing for the sales in May or the fall. It is smokin fast then.
Could see taking a swing on this one at a fair price.

The 6 horse. If he is consistently over bet, I'm with you. I will say, nice works for a baby at Fair Hill.

The 10 horse. Your thoughts on the 10 are all spot on IMO. Peru doesn't exactly have monsters as a rule. All your analysis I agree with.

The "box" is that outside post and is called that because if you have speed, you immediately have the field in a box. You can be a head in front and pin all 9 of them. It allows the rider of the outside horse to dictate when the other riders will have to move based on where the turn is . That's because every horse shifts over about 2-3 feet to the left when they switch leads going into a turn. So that's 20-30 feet with 10 horses. Some horses will need to check out of there position or get squeezed and possibly clip heals and fall if not.
It's also nice for a baby because they have a clear right eye the entire trip. With no experience in that sized field, that is an advantage. Lastly, the spray of all the dirt for the 1st time gets plenty of horses beat. Firsters are not at all used to that. More often than not, it's the 1st time it has happened. That can really alter a babies performance. Not much if any spray to deal with from the box. That is an advantage if you don't flash early speed.

Haven't seen the results yet. I'll look now.

[JBEX]

The 3 horse . I agree with everything you said. Looks real solid but probably bet waay down.

The 5 horse. That trainer has had success with babies so that's a plus. The works at Timonium back in the day seems slowish but I have to think they are actually just fine. It's all about the track maintenance and cushion depth. Rest assured it is not that deep or cuppy and dry when the babies are breezing for the sales in May or the fall. It is smokin fast then.
Could see taking a swing on this one at a fair price.

The 6 horse. If he is consistently over bet, I'm with you. I will say, nice works for a baby at Fair Hill.

The 10 horse. Your thoughts on the 10 are all spot on IMO. Peru doesn't exactly have monsters as a rule. All your analysis I agree with.

The "box" is that outside post and is called that because if you have speed, you immediately have the field in a box. You can be a head in front and pin all 9 of them. It allows the rider of the outside horse to dictate when the other riders will have to move based on where the turn is . That's because every horse shifts over about 2-3 feet to the left when they switch leads going into a turn. So that's 20-30 feet with 10 horses. Some horses will need to check out of there position or get squeezed and possibly clip heals and fall if not.
It's also nice for a baby because they have a clear right eye the entire trip. With no experience in that sized field, that is an advantage. Lastly, the spray of all the dirt for the 1st time gets plenty of horses beat. Firsters are not at all used to that. More often than not, it's the 1st time it has happened. That can really alter a babies performance. Not much if any spray to deal with from the box. That is an advantage if you don't flash early speed.

Haven't seen the results yet. I'll look now.

good to get a refresher on why the outside post in sprints has advantages..see it better now and the other edges that might be more significant for a juvenile vs an experienced older horse..obviously didn't play out that way but for others who didn't see he came from way out of it to win by about a length ..paid $11and change..#5 was scratched

[JBEX]

forgot to say thanks

[str]

Hey STR: I know you are busy so no rush. But when you get a chance what is your opinion of the tactics used by Paco Lopez on the #6 going after the heavy Favorite in the #5? Dirty racing or part of the game? VId replay in Post #5110. Thx.

First of all, an update on my son. He was moved from out to extreme rehab yesterday. All done with the surgeries I'm pretty sure. He is out of danger but faces the next challenge of intense rehab. We are all thrilled with that. Thanks again for all the kind words everyone!

You present a great question Easy.

For me, I've been on both sides of the fence. Had the 1-5 shot and an aggressor tries something cute, and had the underdog and didn't want to watch the 1-5 get a dream trip.

So with that said, it's still really a tough call . But ... the difference here as compared to the far turn is clear. Paco's horse tried to pin and box the favorite going around the clubhouse turn. What that means is as soon as Paco's horse switches back to it's right lead, Paco will shift over 3 feet towards the outside NOT the inside where he would have dropped the rider on the favorite. The favorite will as well but it is not a potentially deadly move that Paco made. So I can live with that. Into the far turn, no way, but Paco knows that.

Gotta say though, with hardly any , if any cameras at all, back in the day, a move like that typically became a jocks room fight after the race. So if you are going to do that, you better be prepared to throw down behind closed doors AND you better be ready to possibly have that happen to you when the roles are reversed.

Lastly, if you are on a dead horse a rider will try to hug the rail or give it up depending on who is hollering behind them and what is the safest way to help a fellow rider out knowing that the same courtesy will be given when the riders rolls are switched. But do this stuff too often and that type of courtesy goes away.
Riders have to weigh all that before getting too cute out there.

Hope all that makes sense.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for the explanation. Makes sense. And good deal with your son. Happy to hear the surgeries are done. I understand He has a long and challenging rehab ahead, and hopefully he gets back to 100%. Good luck to your son and family. Keep us updated every now and then. Thx again.

[JBEX]

hey str

saratoga

R1 #1a jedrek (12-1)


thought a little interesting in this race and wanted your opinion


for starters,lightly raced and he hasn't been this low yet..even though he was running against maiden claimers he did it at the toughest venues in kentucky and oaklawn


an inexpensive yearling purchase so no big deal that he's running here for this price

but the heart of the matter is the sprint running lines in his first 3 races..these to me suggest a stretch out and a drop might be just what he needs

he is bred to go long top and bottom and lezcano is excellent riding route races

..I'll excuse breaking from the 10 post last out in his only attempt on the turf

..I realize you can say this about any horse but I have always felt that for some being up at the spa can be a wake up call..different environment and if there's some latent talent in the horse this is one of those places that may bring it out more than most



hope your son's making good progress





.

[str]

hey str

saratoga

R1 #1a jedrek (12-1)


thought a little interesting in this race and wanted your opinion


for starters,lightly raced and he hasn't been this low yet..even though he was running against maiden claimers he did it at the toughest venues in kentucky and oaklawn


an inexpensive yearling purchase so no big deal that he's running here for this price

but the heart of the matter is the sprint running lines in his first 3 races..these to me suggest a stretch out and a drop might be just what he needs

he is bred to go long top and bottom and lezcano is excellent riding route races

..I'll excuse breaking from the 10 post last out in his only attempt on the turf

..I realize you can say this about any horse but I have always felt that for some being up at the spa can be a wake up call..different environment and if there's some latent talent in the horse this is one of those places that may bring it out more than most



hope your son's making good progress





.

Have to agree about the class drop. What a bunch of slow, overpaid for, horses this group is. Wow. And agree that Ky. and Oaklawn was a step up from these. Also agree on the sprint running lines. This seems to be a logical spot.
You mention Lezcano . I think it is encouraging that he rides this horse back off that 10 post effort. If he thought the horse was terrible, he probably would have begged off or suggested Zito try a bug rider. So I think that is a solid positive.
Bred to go long, 10 post was death valley for this type of horse. Agree again.

Why not try and beat the 2 obvious horses. I'm good with it. Todays post is night and day better than last time.



I got a weird feeling when I saw the rider on the 2 horse. It stunned me. I thought when I glanced at it that it said SaumellL. Had to look again to see it was SamuelJL . Ugh! Heart squeeze. I loved that guy. What a great rider he was. As good a clock in his head as any. Such a good pace rider.

Son is making slow but steady progress. Key word steady. Best we can hope for. Thanks for asking JBEX.

All the best to you.

[JBEX]

thanks str and happy to hear your son is making progress

glad you agree on a lot of the points I mentioned and added the addition of it's good lezcano is staying aboard to ride..agree with that


it's funny when I quickly glanced at the jockeys name I thought you meant jean luc samyn (on the green) (same initials) and I'm saying man that's been a while lol ..then I remembered that larry samuel was a rider you used ..those two probably around the same time period

[JBEX]

hey str

well I have only looked at saratoga R1 which is a 2yof statebred msw..good chance it will be an off track and I'm ok with that for this horse..to me it's between the two fts on the outside..I prefer clement's
#8 sugar and speights (5-2)..trainer having a nice meet and think he cost a decent amount with the pedigree info..steady 4f works (except the first @ 3f)..two back he worked in 48 flat bg .. 2/110 ..thinking clement probably a conservative guy with works and for a 2yo fts out of the gate that's a very impressive move..just wanted your thoughts overall and on the work..also outside posts have done well at 6f and I know you're a fan of that in sprints



understand that this one is not going to be a price and highly likely will go off lower than the ml

[stevenash]

Does First Captain win again today in the Curlin at Saratoga?

[str]

hey str

well I have only looked at saratoga R1 which is a 2yof statebred msw..good chance it will be an off track and I'm ok with that for this horse..to me it's between the two fts on the outside..I prefer clement's
#8 sugar and speights (5-2)..trainer having a nice meet and think he cost a decent amount with the pedigree info..steady 4f works (except the first @ 3f)..two back he worked in 48 flat bg .. 2/110 ..thinking clement probably a conservative guy with works and for a 2yo fts out of the gate that's a very impressive move..just wanted your thoughts overall and on the work..also outside posts have done well at 6f and I know you're a fan of that in sprints



understand that this one is not going to be a price and highly likely will go off lower than the ml

While I don't know Clement's exact ins and outs, I have gotten the feeling that what you are saying about him with babies is probably correct. That is how I would look at it.

That 48 work is a big positive flag. We've talked about the box( outside post ) in a sprint with babies. Never a bad thing to have IMO.
Certainly plenty of early pace with BLKS. ON and Saez with the 3 horse. Looks like from where the horse has been training as compared to the seven horse, also trained by the same trainer, that the 3 was considered second string compared to the seven. Of course that is just what the trainer thought a couple of months ago. Babies can change overnight and trainers are wrong sometimes. Lol. An understatement I suppose.
You never know with firsters of course, but I have no problems with your layout of this race. Ortiz on the 7 speaks loudly along with being sent to Saratoga early as compared to the 3 who ran a decent race 1st out . A lot to learn watching this race. Can't argue with your pick at all.

Good luck JBEX !

[str]

Does First Captain win again today in the Curlin at Saratoga?

The short answer is he probably will. He is hard to bet against with all that potential upside. But honestly, if it was me, I would most likely pass the race and learn from it. There are plenty of questions that need to be answered as to handling 2 turns for the first time. Todd's horse might not be as good, but he is much more seasoned than this guy. That and, we know that Shug is the ultimate old school, take it slow, guy. That is IMO such a great and harder to find every year trait that I really like to see. Fans should really appreciate that as it points to developing great long term talent. I sure do. It's how I was taught, albeit with lesser stock but the same fundamental theory.

Plenty of pace in here and one question will be, where is he sitting when they straighten away down the backside? He could be closer but the Shug factor probably wants him laying 4th ? or even 5th?. Just not sure. Also not sure about the surface. If it's muddy, yes, the horse can handle that he has shown, and being by Curlin, he should, but what about the kickback of mud, if it is muddy? How will he handle that? When he ran in the mud, it doesn't look like he had to deal with that. I'm not sure though, and a replay would tell that story.
The answers to all these are he probably handles everything fine and draws off as expected. But if that is the case, the reward is 4.60? or less?

I guess because I was there every day for decades, sitting out a race was never a problem because I saw damn near every one. For the fan, I cannot expect them to feel the same way. I get that.
So I won't be critical if anybody bets on him or takes a shot against. Heck, somebody will be right. But when I settle for 7-5 or less, I personally don't want to have to leave several important questions on the table when they are loading into the gate. It seems to me that that would be the case. So while I can say yes, he probably wins, I would pass and wait for a better situation albeit on this card or the next one.
I know, I'm no fun when it comes to betting. Lol. That is true. I'm selective. And I have turned it into a must make money long term event in my mind. That's really no fun. But, over a ton of time, that's what I personally have turned all sports betting into.

But don't let me spoil the party Steve. Enjoy the day and the race.

Thanks for checking in, good luck, and thank you for the kind words in regards to my son. I really appreciated that.

[stevenash]

^
Tremendous response.
Much appreciated.

I don't wager on the ponies often.
I used to, I grew up less than a hour away from the Jersey shore, spent plenty of summers (and take home pay) at Monmouth Park. But I do bet the big Grade one's, two's...

And I love Saratoga, I follow every summer.

Had Step Dancer the other day in the Cab Calloway. I thought he was DOA.
Closed like a freight train to win the Cab Calloway for me, unbelievable how he closed.
Watch that replay from Wednesday. Beautiful finish.

So I'm actually one for one so far this Saratoga meet.
But I like First Captain too.

[JBEX]

While I don't know Clement's exact ins and outs, I have gotten the feeling that what you are saying about him with babies is probably correct. That is how I would look at it.

That 48 work is a big positive flag. We've talked about the box( outside post ) in a sprint with babies. Never a bad thing to have IMO.
Certainly plenty of early pace with BLKS. ON and Saez with the 3 horse. Looks like from where the horse has been training as compared to the seven horse, also trained by the same trainer, that the 3 was considered second string compared to the seven. Of course that is just what the trainer thought a couple of months ago. Babies can change overnight and trainers are wrong sometimes. Lol. An understatement I suppose.
You never know with firsters of course, but I have no problems with your layout of this race. Ortiz on the 7 speaks loudly along with being sent to Saratoga early as compared to the 3 who ran a decent race 1st out . A lot to learn watching this race. Can't argue with your pick at all.

Good luck JBEX !

7 was too good and the way he was bet it wasn't the biggest secret..thought he also cost a bunch for the specs and certainly ran like it..bottomline it's a loss and there will certainly be better opportunities than that..appreciate the feedback str


also should point out that the trainer's of the 3 and 7 are brothers and their dad chris is also a trainer..finger lakes roots for that family and jeremiah (winner) is really a very solid trainer..think jeffrey is a little newer being out on his own but not sure off the top

[JBEX]

an article about the family that you might find interesting..jeremiah is quite a bit older than jeffrey and has over $40M in career earnings..jeffrey checks in at under $5M

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/the-hart-of-a-champion/

[JBEX]

hey str


figure i'd let you know that lacey has a fts in R1 at saratoga today..last 4 works are bullets at delaware

[str]

hey str


figure i'd let you know that lacey has a fts in R1 at saratoga today..last 4 works are bullets at delaware

Actually saw this race yesterday. Thought I was looking at Friday and the race you talked about but it was this one. Looked at every horse waiting for the bottom horse to be Clement. Whoops. Lol.

Gotta say that this looks like exactly what Eddie would do back in the 70's and 80's. Exactly !
I wish her all the luck but doing that is tough on the horse . I have to think the plan is to win, keep her there and run in the Spinaway.
They have been trying that for 45 years and I hope they can achieve that.

Plenty of potential nice horses as firsters in there besides her. Breen's horse caught my eye coming from Monmouth. Ortiz on 1st out. Don't remember him riding for Breen all that much. Might be wrong. Horse probably has a solid story behind her to get Ortiz 1st time out.
Should be an interesting race to watch

Thanks for the heads up JBEX !

[JBEX]

Actually saw this race yesterday. Thought I was looking at Friday and the race you talked about but it was this one. Looked at every horse waiting for the bottom horse to be Clement. Whoops. Lol.

Gotta say that this looks like exactly what Eddie would do back in the 70's and 80's. Exactly !
I wish her all the luck but doing that is tough on the horse . I have to think the plan is to win, keep her there and run in the Spinaway.
They have been trying that for 45 years and I hope they can achieve that.

Plenty of potential nice horses as firsters in there besides her. Breen's horse caught my eye coming from Monmouth. Ortiz on 1st out. Don't remember him riding for Breen all that much. Might be wrong. Horse probably has a solid story behind her to get Ortiz 1st time out.
Should be an interesting race to watch

Thanks for the heads up JBEX !

no problem and I do that stuff all the time..obviously she knows the deal coming here so she must feel he has a decent shot..purses..winning up north for 60k winners share has to tempting for any trainer whose got something good..would love to see her win with your long time connection to the family


tough race to decipher for me..looking at it a 2nd time think I agree with you on breen's #4 moving pictures..new sire has started off great with first timers and out of a gone west (don't see many of them anymore) mare and he was an excellent debut sire..trainer great with babies factoring in roi also and as you said they get jose ortiz to ride


if not him hopefully lacey gets it

[Easy-Rider 66]

Actually saw this race yesterday. Thought I was looking at Friday and the race you talked about but it was this one. Looked at every horse waiting for the bottom horse to be Clement. Whoops. Lol.

Gotta say that this looks like exactly what Eddie would do back in the 70's and 80's. Exactly !
I wish her all the luck but doing that is tough on the horse . I have to think the plan is to win, keep her there and run in the Spinaway.
They have been trying that for 45 years and I hope they can achieve that.

Plenty of potential nice horses as firsters in there besides her. Breen's horse caught my eye coming from Monmouth. Ortiz on 1st out. Don't remember him riding for Breen all that much. Might be wrong. Horse probably has a solid story behind her to get Ortiz 1st time out.
Should be an interesting race to watch

Thanks for the heads up JBEX !

Lacey's Pony a gate scratch.

[littlekona]

Do you guys think assistant starters in the gates helps much? Ive seen a few horses of late where i thought the assistant hampers the horse...In the UK they do not use and id say bad starts are a bit more esp real bad starts but not that much more..

[str]

Lacey's Pony a gate scratch.

I was watching that race when I saw them take the tack off.

If you guys see the horse entered, please let me know.

I really want to get a better look at this horse next time it is entered.

Thanks

[str]

Do you guys think assistant starters in the gates helps much? Ive seen a few horses of late where i thought the assistant hampers the horse...In the UK they do not use and id say bad starts are a bit more esp real bad starts but not that much more..

Yes Kona, they are badly needed in the USA. Why? A few reasons. First, our horses are so much more keyed up than the UK horses. They have their horses training on farms with rolling hills and open paddocks. We have our horses training at the tracks for the most part where more noise and commotion goes on in an hour than the UK horses see in a week.
USA horses are also bred with more speed. Crazy speed. Hair on fire speed. And that shows in the offspring's temperament. so between those two things, a gate crew is really needed.

If you find a laid back racing horse in America, it's a heck of a find. Most are lit up by the smallest thing. And the gate is the highest anxiety part of the race anyway for many horses, so for the US horses they are a must.

I did see somewhere, maybe not here, that someone posted that he saw the gate guy holding the horses tail and thought he was trying to cheat get the horse beat by making the horse break slow. That is not the case. Sometimes the horse needs to be "tailed". What that is, is holding the horses tail upwards, therefore putting more weight towards the front, which will make the horse break downhill and forward instead of sitting back on the hind legs and lunging, thus getting left and probably squeezed.
Not sure where I saw that comment but hopefully whoever though to write that reads this so they have a better understanding of what they are seeing.

I realize that it does look sometimes like the guy at the gate is not helping the horse, and sometimes that can be true. A good head starter, the guy that pushes the button , and the guy in charge, not only keeps a book on every horse but constantly updates that book to make damn sure what the horse needs now is up to date. Some scribble in a note pad that is old information is useless. One thing I will say about by years in Md., that starters and the gate crew really took detailed notes. But unless the trainer is in tune and in communication with the gate crew and they work together, you don't have the optimum setup. So some of the bad starts and things you see on TV can actually be the trainers fault for not doing their part to make the gate experience the best it can be for every horse they are in charge of. And like most things, the more the trainer shows that they really care about the gate, and the gate crew and the way their horse acts back there, the more the gate crew will respond positively towards the horse. If a trainer blows the gate crew off, which makes the gate crews work harder, they will resent that and they will have less patience with the horse.
Most times, frustration shown towards a horse that constantly loads poorly is really frustration towards the trainer who for whatever reason does not take gate work seriously. Sometimes it is the horse but more often than not, the trainer could have attempted to do more. Especially at lesser tracks, not Saratoga. Up there, you do it right or your out quick.
Hope that helps.

[littlekona]

thanks...I always thought that holding the tail was indication the horse would show some speed from gate or at least try too

[stevenash]

Talk to me about Aunt Kat and all these good things I've heard.

[ConleyPicks]

Yes Kona, they are badly needed in the USA. Why? A few reasons. First, our horses are so much more keyed up than the UK horses. They have their horses training on farms with rolling hills and open paddocks. We have our horses training at the tracks for the most part where more noise and commotion goes on in an hour than the UK horses see in a week.
USA horses are also bred with more speed. Crazy speed. Hair on fire speed. And that shows in the offspring's temperament. so between those two things, a gate crew is really needed.

If you find a laid back racing horse in America, it's a heck of a find. Most are lit up by the smallest thing. And the gate is the highest anxiety part of the race anyway for many horses, so for the US horses they are a must.

I did see somewhere, maybe not here, that someone posted that he saw the gate guy holding the horses tail and thought he was trying to cheat get the horse beat by making the horse break slow. That is not the case. Sometimes the horse needs to be "tailed". What that is, is holding the horses tail upwards, therefore putting more weight towards the front, which will make the horse break downhill and forward instead of sitting back on the hind legs and lunging, thus getting left and probably squeezed.
Not sure where I saw that comment but hopefully whoever though to write that reads this so they have a better understanding of what they are seeing.

I realize that it does look sometimes like the guy at the gate is not helping the horse, and sometimes that can be true. A good head starter, the guy that pushes the button , and the guy in charge, not only keeps a book on every horse but constantly updates that book to make damn sure what the horse needs now is up to date. Some scribble in a note pad that is old information is useless. One thing I will say about by years in Md., that starters and the gate crew really took detailed notes. But unless the trainer is in tune and in communication with the gate crew and they work together, you don't have the optimum setup. So some of the bad starts and things you see on TV can actually be the trainers fault for not doing their part to make the gate experience the best it can be for every horse they are in charge of. And like most things, the more the trainer shows that they really care about the gate, and the gate crew and the way their horse acts back there, the more the gate crew will respond positively towards the horse. If a trainer blows the gate crew off, which makes the gate crews work harder, they will resent that and they will have less patience with the horse.
Most times, frustration shown towards a horse that constantly loads poorly is really frustration towards the trainer who for whatever reason does not take gate work seriously. Sometimes it is the horse but more often than not, the trainer could have attempted to do more. Especially at lesser tracks, not Saratoga. Up there, you do it right or your out quick.
Hope that helps.

Thanks for for the explanation!

[str]

Talk to me about Aunt Kat and all these good things I've heard.

She looks the part physically and has run very well since her rough beginning. That said, it jumps off the page that she has had the luxury of being able to run 23 and change for the opening 1/4 in all three wins. Also, the fastest half mile she has had to run is 46 4/5ths as the others were 47 and change. Now I will be the first to say that all a horse can do is win the race they are entered in. (They don't have to go all Secretariat on the field to be any good). And she has done exactly that. Win.

Today, it looks on paper like she can get away with a slower first quarter again if they run to form. She looks like solo speed and it would seem as though it is her race to lose. Gotta see how the track is playing but even still, solo speed is what trainers dream for and this race looks on paper like that.
If she wins and comes out in good order, the Ballerina is next . Don't know who will be in that race but I can't imagine they will go 23 and change in the Ballerina. So THAT, will be a stiff challenge in all probability and give you a clear answer as to how good she is.
Until we see the effort in the Ballerina, everything else is just talk. And that's cheap. especially at the track. Lol.
But for today, solo speed is always real tough to beat( and quality solo speed is almost impossible to beat), and unless the 1 horse decides to gun( which would still be advantage Aunt Kat because she would be outside), and make a duel out of it, she should control the race early which makes it her race to lose. Until we see her get pinned and have her right eye leaned on we won't know for sure. It does not look on paper that that will be the case today.
Good luck if you play.

[str]

Thanks for for the explanation!

Anytime Conley.

Always happy to help if you ever have a question.

[JBEX]

see you are busy this morning


delaware

R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
..name hints at some positives lol

[str]

see you are busy this morning


delaware

R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
..name hints at some positives lol

Yes. I see the works but I only care about the 2 gate works. They are both very solid. The others I could care less about.
No telling what happened for the 1,500 price to happen but there must be a story. I mean, I paid that for a couple of yearlings back in the day but that was cheap 40 years ago. Lol.
And who knows about flaws? Could be the horse looked bad a year ago as a yearling. A lot can happen in a year.
So sure, I'm fine with this play. Perkins is always a risk to play against as a firster but he is not nearly as tough to beat 1st out as his dad was. And he is almost always over bet with babies.
So go for it. That 47 gate work is plenty reason enough IMO.
Good luck JBEX!

[JBEX]

Yes. I see the works but I only care about the 2 gate works. They are both very solid. The others I could care less about.
No telling what happened for the 1,500 price to happen but there must be a story. I mean, I paid that for a couple of yearlings back in the day but that was cheap 40 years ago. Lol.
And who knows about flaws? Could be the horse looked bad a year ago as a yearling. A lot can happen in a year.
So sure, I'm fine with this play. Perkins is always a risk to play against as a firster but he is not nearly as tough to beat 1st out as his dad was. And he is almost always over bet with babies.
So go for it. That 47 gate work is plenty reason enough IMO.
Good luck JBEX!

thanks str

finished 2nd with an eventful trip (at least imo)..after going for the lead he was passed on the inside and taken up a bit a little after..thoughts he was done around the quarter pole..then came again and finished a solid 2nd..love to have your thoughts on the race when you get a chance

[stevenash]

Thanks for this thread fellas.
You got me interested in the ponies again.

14 minutes to post in the Shine Away.

I'm just an 'ABC' handicapper, you know, just the basics, speed ratings, last three trips out, jocks and trainers, just the basics.

I got a double sawbuck ticket on Aunt Kat to win, but this Bayerness scares me some.
Saez up. I'm not enamored with Saez but the track is sloppy and Bayerness can run in the slop.

14 minutes.
Hoping for a good race,

Thanks again for the input guys.