Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str


tony dutow has a big pedigree 2nd time starter at belmont today (R7) ran evenly midpack in debut at saratoga and I did mention it to you that time..lots of sharp steady works since

[str]

hey str


tony dutow has a big pedigree 2nd time starter at belmont today (R7) ran evenly midpack in debut at saratoga and I did mention it to you that time..lots of sharp steady works since

A Sharp improvement This race I would assume is in the cards.
Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

hey str

belmont

R5 #4 kenner (12-1)




thought this one a little interesting and wanted your opinion on him or any other you like (always applies)


my thoughts..


expensive for ped factoring dam info

fairly even efforts first two races but did show a little more speed in 2nd start ..not bad

adds blinkers last and only a half length off at the 6f mark in that 7f race ..always like that line in a sprint cutback

jock comes over to ride


know you won't like the 4f bullet 6 days ago .. ness is a solid trainer..you think he's not happy with that ?





.

[str]

hey str

belmont

R5 #4 kenner (12-1)




thought this one a little interesting and wanted your opinion on him or any other you like (always applies)


my thoughts..


expensive for ped factoring dam info

fairly even efforts first two races but did show a little more speed in 2nd start ..not bad

adds blinkers last and only a half length off at the 6f mark in that 7f race ..always like that line in a sprint cutback

jock comes over to ride


know you won't like the 4f bullet 6 days ago .. ness is a solid trainer..you think he's not happy with that ?





.

Sorry JBEX. Just getting to this one and its post time. Also sorry for the short answer the other day. Works been a total pain in the rear the last week or so.

So yes, I see what you see and it makes sense off that last 7/8ths effort.
The 1 caught my eye. Delaware shipping firster and gets Ortiz.. Solid connections. Chad the horse to beat but so what else is new.
The 10 ships in from Penn. Nat and gets Franco. Hmmm. Something up there?
GL if you played.

Also, that last bullet was not as bad as that other horses. At least this horse does close to that every time.

[str]

hey str

belmont

R5 #4 kenner (12-1)




thought this one a little interesting and wanted your opinion on him or any other you like (always applies)


my thoughts..


expensive for ped factoring dam info

fairly even efforts first two races but did show a little more speed in 2nd start ..not bad

adds blinkers last and only a half length off at the 6f mark in that 7f race ..always like that line in a sprint cutback

jock comes over to ride


know you won't like the 4f bullet 6 days ago .. ness is a solid trainer..you think he's not happy with that ?





.

Very nice call JBEX !

Real good job there.

[JBEX]

Very nice call JBEX !

Real good job there.

thanks str..like what you said about fast workouts .. they concern you less if that's how the horse works regularly which that one did ..I will keep that in mind from here forward


guessing you may know laurel has their big day today

[JBEX]

keeping with the theme of 2yo (even though this is a stakes) was looking at the maryland nursey R8

#5 local motive (5-1)

think you've mentioned before salzman is good with
2yo's

making 5th career start and won first 2 with one of those on the turf at colonial

pulled up and vanned off next out in the stakes at tim but thought the mth comeback last out was decent factoring it was a stakes


very competitive race ..my 2nd choice would be #1..if you have time any thoughts welcome

[str]

John Salzman was always excellent with babies. He made a living having them excel from the beginning. I don't know what happened at Timonium but it was weird because the horse worked a 1/2 in 48, six days after pulling up. Maybe just a funny step. Certainly not an injury.


I don't know the other trainer but he wins there all the time. Heard good things about him if you are a bettor, not so much if you are a horseman. He's one of those guys that have horses that magically restart turning for home after a long duel so I have been told.

good luck if you play JBEX !

[littlekona]

guys help me here. How many 4 of 5's are on this ticket do I have here
Keeneland Race #1 USD 0.5 Pick 5 (1, 3 / 6 / 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12)

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/6,13,14,15/3/1/7) Paid $385.65 (5OF5)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/6,13,14,15/3/1/7) Paid $6.75 (4OF5)

[JBEX]

guys help me here. How many 4 of 5's are on this ticket do I have here
Keeneland Race #1 USD 0.5 Pick 5 (1, 3 / 6 / 2, 3, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12)

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/6,13,14,15/3/1/7) Paid $385.65 (5OF5)
$0.50 Pick-5 (3/6,13,14,15/3/1/7) Paid $6.75 (4OF5)

the math on that doesn't just come to me kona.. sorry

[JBEX]

the math on that doesn't just come to me kona.. sorry

messing around with it just for the challenge

[littlekona]

messing around with it just for the challenge

ty. I keep coming up different. Need it for BOL they didnt credit the 4 of 5 payout

[JBEX]

can't do it kona.. keep feeling I'm close and it goes away.. probably a high school math level problem..dont have the mental energy to keep going but will keep it open if something comes to mind

[JBEX]

can't do it kona.. keep feeling I'm close and it goes away.. probably a high school math level problem..dont have the mental energy to keep going but will keep it open if something comes to mind

I think it might be the amount of horses in each leg added up excluding the single

7/4/4/2=17..wouldn't bet my life on it though

[littlekona]

I think it might be the amount of horses in each leg added up excluding the single

7/4/4/2=17..wouldn't bet my life on it though

thats what i thought to then i started doing it manually and got different. I searched the web for a 4 of 5 formula but to no luck

[JBEX]

thats what i thought to then i started doing it manually and got different. I searched the web for a 4 of 5 formula but to no luck

for each leg you miss each one would be a consolation because you have the horses in the other 4 legs.. maybe I'm missing something

[str]

for each leg you miss each one would be a consolation because you have the horses in the other 4 legs.. maybe I'm missing something

This seems reasonable Kona. As If the tickets were each individual plays. They are, but you have to break them down that way to get the true 4 of 5's IMO.

[littlekona]

thx guys....off subject but man id hate to be Christian Ramos after belmont race 7 ride on BustonmyGroove horse got bet down strong second pic on the exchange too. the connections bet the hell out of that one and looked a easiest of a winner WOW


went from a perfect ride to nightmare for them

[littlekona]

This seems reasonable Kona. As If the tickets were each individual plays. They are, but you have to break them down that way to get the true 4 of 5's IMO.

FYI BOL rep said they are not paying consolation tickets anymore. I cant find that listed anywhere only that they pay track prices. I'm asking to escelate to senior manager so hopefully I get my 17 consolations 4 of 5's

[JBEX]

FYI BOL rep said they are not paying consolation tickets anymore. I cant find that listed anywhere only that they pay track prices. I'm asking to escelate to senior manager so hopefully I get my 17 consolations 4 of 5's

that's crazy..don't blame you for wanting to talk to a higher-up

[str]

FYI BOL rep said they are not paying consolation tickets anymore. I cant find that listed anywhere only that they pay track prices. I'm asking to escelate to senior manager so hopefully I get my 17 consolations 4 of 5's

Unreal ! That sounds like a total idiot said that. Guess the idea is to say anything and hope it sticks.

But now, SBR can't help fight it? Maybe check and see if they will or if anyone else does. If not, why should any offshore pay out anything it does not feel like paying. Yikes. Scary thought.
Good luck Kona. Hope you get what you are due.

[littlekona]

Guys watch replay race 6 @ the great race place today Friday. I had the winner OK BUT what the hell was Desormeaux doing the whole race he did it like maybe 6+ times even when he was beat....Watch him and you will see and let me know thoughts of why he's doing this since his horse was empty...Paco Lopez does it alot too but its when he's loaded.Hint Hint

[str]

Guys watch replay race 6 @ the great race place today Friday. I had the winner OK BUT what the hell was Desormeaux doing the whole race he did it like maybe 6+ times even when he was beat....Watch him and you will see and let me know thoughts of why he's doing this since his horse was empty...Paco Lopez does it alot too but its when he's loaded.Hint Hint

https://youtu.be/aDlqPCpW9dE

I see what you saw but I can assure you it is not anything other than the filly was acting like, for lack of a better way to explain it, a total sulky bitch and Kent not appreciating it.

I could break this down frame by frame but just go to 1:23-1:24 on the you tube video or right around there and freeze it. Make sure it freezes with her front feet off the ground. Might take a try or two.

Now she has been running with a rubber type neck the whole way. What I mean by that is she has carried her head a little high which can be uncomfortable for a rider but more so than that, Kent has been trying every trick in the book to give her any help by riding off the rail so as to park the outside horse just a little more and all the while checking to make sure the inside horse does not take that rail away. But while he gets involved past the 3/8ths pole with the outside horse, just before the 1/4 pole, the inside horse takes the rail away. Kent took his eye off the horse behind him for just a second too long and lost the rail. He was dealing with the outside horse. I'm sure that pissed Kent off, at himself as much as anything.

But back to 1:23 seconds. If you freeze it, you can see that his mount has thrown her head up and in doing so dropped the bit completely. So lets, stop there for a second.

If you are a super competitive person, and knowing Kent for years back when he was in Maryland, trust me, he is, and if you have a temper, and trust me he does, and you are an emotional person, and he is, and you are riding a filly that you probably would not get along with on a good day anyway, and she pulls that number, it's not going to end well. And... it doesn't.

At that moment she is going to be last. Kent knows that. But he is in a fight with her to retake the bit and act like a race horse, at least a little. Well, she won't and honestly Kent in hindsight probably knew she would not. But he got pissed. So he keeps trying to make her, to no avail. And that is where in the end, it was the horses fault but Kent looks like the bad guy. He probably felt that the only one trying to win that race was him. Certainly not her from the 1/4 pole home.

I do not know if Kent has ridden this horse before and or had any success but I have had fillies like that before and finding a rider that can get along with those types is key IMO. Chances are a female rider WOULD do well on her. So would certain guy riders but you have to know that colony of jocks and I do not.

If there is room to drop down and if they change riders next out and if the race can set up for her to get solo next out, I would give her a long look as a play on. Not that Kent cannot win on her. I'm sure he could but he got upset. That's the only reason I suggest it.

But if they hook her right eye and inch in front, she won't fight much I don't think unless it is inside the 1/8th pole. But a clear lead, sure, she's probably worth a play off that bad effort. Because the effort was all between her ears and then, from the 1/4 pole home, it was all between Kent's ears. It was not her true ability. And not a good look for Kent but he's an old dog at this stage of the game and he is not going to change. And please know, I really liked him. Always have, always will. He is a great rider. No question about it. But also a human that is not perfect.

Hope that helps to better understand what you saw.
All the best Kona and good luck with the pk 3's and 4's next weekend !

[littlekona]

https://youtu.be/aDlqPCpW9dE

I see what you saw but I can assure you it is not anything other than the filly was acting like, for lack of a better way to explain it, a total sulky bitch and Kent not appreciating it.

I could break this down frame by frame but just go to 1:23-1:24 on the you tube video or right around there and freeze it. Make sure it freezes with her front feet off the ground. Might take a try or two.

Now she has been running with a rubber type neck the whole way. What I mean by that is she has carried her head a little high which can be uncomfortable for a rider but more so than that, Kent has been trying every trick in the book to give her any help by riding off the rail so as to park the outside horse just a little more and all the while checking to make sure the inside horse does not take that rail away. But while he gets involved past the 3/8ths pole with the outside horse, just before the 1/4 pole, the inside horse takes the rail away. Kent took his eye off the horse behind him for just a second too long and lost the rail. He was dealing with the outside horse. I'm sure that pissed Kent off, at himself as much as anything.

But back to 1:23 seconds. If you freeze it, you can see that his mount has thrown her head up and in doing so dropped the bit completely. So lets, stop there for a second.

If you are a super competitive person, and knowing Kent for years back when he was in Maryland, trust me, he is, and if you have a temper, and trust me he does, and you are an emotional person, and he is, and you are riding a filly that you probably would not get along with on a good day anyway, and she pulls that number, it's not going to end well. And... it doesn't.

At that moment she is going to be last. Kent knows that. But he is in a fight with her to retake the bit and act like a race horse, at least a little. Well, she won't and honestly Kent in hindsight probably knew she would not. But he got pissed. So he keeps trying to make her, to no avail. And that is where in the end, it was the horses fault but Kent looks like the bad guy. He probably felt that the only one trying to win that race was him. Certainly not her from the 1/4 pole home.

I do not know if Kent has ridden this horse before and or had any success but I have had fillies like that before and finding a rider that can get along with those types is key IMO. Chances are a female rider WOULD do well on her. So would certain guy riders but you have to know that colony of jocks and I do not.

If there is room to drop down and if they change riders next out and if the race can set up for her to get solo next out, I would give her a long look as a play on. Not that Kent cannot win on her. I'm sure he could but he got upset. That's the only reason I suggest it.

But if they hook her right eye and inch in front, she won't fight much I don't think unless it is inside the 1/8th pole. But a clear lead, sure, she's probably worth a play off that bad effort. Because the effort was all between her ears and then, from the 1/4 pole home, it was all between Kent's ears. It was not her true ability. And not a good look for Kent but he's an old dog at this stage of the game and he is not going to change. And please know, I really liked him. Always have, always will. He is a great rider. No question about it. But also a human that is not perfect.

Hope that helps to better understand what you saw.
All the best Kona and good luck with the pk 3's and 4's next weekend !

wow very nice thank you. that's why I ask as your expertise shows here

[JBEX]

hey str


bel R4 #7 radio days (9-2)

obvious credentials with her price tag ,trainer and very productive dam..sire has gotten off to a quick start with debuters

shug % and roi with firsters not bad..know we've touched on this before..to work as quick with him as the trainer might mean she's doing it well within herself..what do you think?


side note: would like to know where "blk" is (where she started working)..never seen that one before

[JBEX]

hey str


bel R4 #7 radio days (9-2)

obvious credentials with her price tag ,trainer and very productive dam..sire has gotten off to a quick start with debuters

shug % and roi with firsters not bad..know we've touched on this before..to work as quick with him as the trainer might mean she's doing it well within herself..what do you think?


side note: would like to know where "blk" is (where she started working)..never seen that one before

it's this place

https://blackwoodstables.com/

.

[str]

hey str


bel R4 #7 radio days (9-2)

obvious credentials with her price tag ,trainer and very productive dam..sire has gotten off to a quick start with debuters

shug % and roi with firsters not bad..know we've touched on this before..to work as quick with him as the trainer might mean she's doing it well within herself..what do you think?


side note: would like to know where "blk" is (where she started working)..never seen that one before

Yes. In this case with this trainer she is definitely doing it all within herself. Shug just doesn't do things like that. It's not his style. It looks like she woke up somewhat in the last month or so. Any flash early from her is all her. We know that Shug is wanting to relax and breathe. But he won't take away what horses want to do as long as they are doing it the right way. What I mean is, if she wants to show some speed, fine. But he won't want her to just run off early if he can help it. He fights that from day one which we were taught was a good thing.

Hope that makes sense.
Good luck if you play JBEX !

[str]

wow very nice thank you. that's why I ask as your expertise shows here

Anytime Kona. The main point of this thread is to help people see what's really going on in these kinds of races.

All the best.

[JBEX]

Yes. In this case with this trainer she is definitely doing it all within herself. Shug just doesn't do things like that. It's not his style. It looks like she woke up somewhat in the last month or so. Any flash early from her is all her. We know that Shug is wanting to relax and breathe. But he won't take away what horses want to do as long as they are doing it the right way. What I mean is, if she wants to show some speed, fine. But he won't want her to just run off early if he can help it. He fights that from day one which we were taught was a good thing.

Hope that makes sense.
Good luck if you play JBEX !

thought you'd feel that way..thanks str

[JBEX]

hey str

del mar

R8 #2 chrome of our own (20-1)


thought you'd find this interesting..5 career races and the lone dirt sprint with lasix a race that would fit here..maybe toss the lasix part because it may just be coincidental..can always excuse the debut..biggest ? to me is the layoff after the 4/2 race..something had to be wrong ,I would think, to do that


any opinion ,including if you like another , welcome

[str]

hey str

del mar

R8 #2 chrome of our own (20-1)


thought you'd find this interesting..5 career races and the lone dirt sprint with lasix a race that would fit here..maybe toss the lasix part because it may just be coincidental..can always excuse the debut..biggest ? to me is the layoff after the 4/2 race..something had to be wrong ,I would think, to do that

any opinion ,including if you like another , welcome

Yes, something probably made them stop her. But it wasn't that serious. Only off about 90 days, then training again. The rider stays on, I like that. He won on her so that's good. And I guess the excuses last race were legit without seeing the replay or Baze would have probably begged off. This race seems like a race where multiple horses are being dumped or real cheap winners are ascending .
Probably as good a spot to take a swing at a horse like this as any. There is no dominant couple of horses here. Everybody has a question mark.
That's the type of race that a horse like this can run well if it is capable. In a race where I could not get excited about any of the others the logic to take a stand on this longshot is as good or better than any of the others.
The lasix could have been coincidental but it also could have played a role. She is in where she belongs if she belongs at all.
I would say go for it.
GL if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

Yes, something probably made them stop her. But it wasn't that serious. Only off about 90 days, then training again. The rider stays on, I like that. He won on her so that's good. And I guess the excuses last race were legit without seeing the replay or Baze would have probably begged off. This race seems like a race where multiple horses are being dumped or real cheap winners are ascending .
Probably as good a spot to take a swing at a horse like this as any. There is no dominant couple of horses here. Everybody has a question mark.
That's the type of race that a horse like this can run well if it is capable. In a race where I could not get excited about any of the others the logic to take a stand on this longshot is as good or better than any of the others.
The lasix could have been coincidental but it also could have played a role. She is in where she belongs if she belongs at all.
I would say go for it.
GL if you play JBEX.

the layoff not scaring you away is good to know..and as you mentioned were talking a potential big price so have to accept some unknowns..don't get shooting for the turf after that mdn win and the time after but guess trainer saw something that made him lean that way.. thanks and appreciate the feedback str

[str]

the layoff not scaring you away is good to know..and as you mentioned were talking a potential big price so have to accept some unknowns..don't get shooting for the turf after that mdn win and the time after but guess trainer saw something that made him lean that way.. thanks and appreciate the feedback str

The layoff is of no concern for Baze.

If it was, he would have asked off .

That means we don't worry about it either.

That's how I read that.

[JBEX]

The layoff is of no concern for Baze.

If it was, he would have asked off .

That means we don't worry about it either.

That's how I read that.

makes sense to me.. as bad as the turf races are it doesn't really take a lot of digging to come up with that maiden breaking sprint would probably be competitive here.. maybe won't like dmr as much as santa anita.. 14 mtp at 18-1.. we'll see

[str]

makes sense to me.. as bad as the turf races are it doesn't really take a lot of digging to come up with that maiden breaking sprint would probably be competitive here.. maybe won't like dmr as much as santa anita.. 14 mtp at 18-1.. we'll see

I watched the race. The rider rode him every inch of the way. He showed no speed at all early and passed a couple very late. Can't say he would have won at all but I do think he would have run somewhat better if the track was fair. That said, so would all of the closers in all probability.