[JBEX]

will run it continuous and record results..not going to tally..I believe the number of races to prove anything about ability with a reasonable degree of certainty is in the thousands and conclusions get drawn too quick (good results and bad)..not doing contests anymore for that reason



__________________

((post position))

-3rd collects place money

-prices given with results (price = odds +1)
ex: out @ 7 ... means not top 4 and price is 7 (6-1 our odds)

-finishes back to 4th will be noted otherwise "out"

-field size <11 (the exceptions) will be noted [x]
ex: [10] = 10 horse field

____________



sha tin 9/6 @ 1am



R1 #8 great smart ((11)) out @ 7
R2 #9 e generation ((6)) out @ 8
R3 #12 super red dragon ((8)) 2nd @ 9.. $6.40
R5 #9 telecom rocket ((5)) out @ 11
R6 #5 happy good guys ((3)) out @ 76


R7 #8 take what you need ((5) 3rd @ 8.. $5.70
R8 #4 jolly banner ((7)) 2nd @ 39.. $17.00
R9 #3 cordyceps ((8)) out @8
R10 #7 ballistic king ((13)) 2nd @14.. $6.40



..

[JBEX]

finished

[JBEX]

forgot to note ((x)) is post position

[JBEX]

graded sunday card

[JBEX]

post time for happy valley 7:15am tomorrow..will have it up later tonight

[JBEX]

__________________

((post position))

-3rd collects place money

-prices given with results (price = odds +1)
ex: out @ 7 ... means not top 4 and price is 7 (6-1 our odds)

-finishes back to 4th will be noted otherwise "out"

-field size <11 (the exceptions) will be noted [x]
ex: [10] = 10 horse field

____________


happy valley 7:15am

R1 #4 wins all ((1)) WINNER $12.60/4.60
R2 #2 perfect to play ((3)) out @ 4.7
R3 #2 g unit ((5)) 4th @ 6.9
R4 #4 winning feeling ((12)) out @ 23
R6 #2 reel bizzy ((1)) 3rd @ 8.5 $5.40.. half a head 2nd
R7 #11 california levee ((3)).. 5th @ 40.. missed 4th nose, 3rd < 1 *

R8 #8 loriz ((12)) out @ 9.3
R8 #10 cantstopthefeeling ((10)) 3rd @ 8.5 $5.50


*very wide into stretch



..

[JBEX]

got R2 # wrong.. sorry.. just off

[JBEX]

got R2 # wrong.. sorry.. just off

didn't matter

[JBEX]

graded today's

[JBEX]

sha tin (sunday 1am)

R3 #3 super alliances ((5)) 4th @ 3.8 [10]
R4 #7 galaxy racer ((6)) out @ 9.3
R5 #8 family leader ((4)) WINNER $6.40/2.50 [10]
R6 #4 pearl champion ((9)) out @ 4.7

R7 #1 will power ((2)) WINNER $6.00/2.40 [9]
R8 #5 cruising ((5)) 3rd @ 12 .. $4.80 (head 2nd) [10]
R10 #2 star of yeun long ((5)) 2nd @ 3.4 .. $3.00

[JBEX]

finished.. actually it's sunday.. had it as saturday

[JBEX]

graded sunday..for simplicities sake i'm recording win place prices but you can see from this bunch when it gets below prices of 3 (2-1 odds) the place bet really not worth it

[JBEX]

the equivalent of about $176M usd bet on this race card..I would guess conservatively that's about 2 weeks of saratoga in a day

[JBEX]

going to skip tomorrow mornings card..was a great day with the tbreds and don't want to spoil it with a bad day at happy valley..also thinking of waiting till october to resume it again..would like a majority of the horses to not be racing off around a 2 month break which is happening a lot now with them coming off their summer hiatus

[littlekona]

the barrier trial work out races are only 5 and 6 Fur so it's always tough to gauge. Kinda like USA some trainers are better off the layoff and bullet the trials. I like the trials very interesting way to provide workout info. Aus does it too

[JBEX]

the barrier trial work out races are only 5 and 6 Fur so it's always tough to gauge. Kinda like USA some trainers are better off the layoff and bullet the trials. I like the trials very interesting way to provide workout info. Aus does it too

I don't understand that part of the game and I'd like to..besides layoffs don't foreign horses have to go through barrier trials ..guess that would have something to do with them not running in a while..any info you could pass on about this would be great

[littlekona]

watch. looks like breeze work outs for most some urging for postion out of gate but then hand rides

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PnxstEK5N0

[JBEX]

watch. looks like breeze work outs for most some urging for postion out of gate but then hand rides

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PnxstEK5N0

forgot to respond to this..I couldn't make a decision to play a layoff horse off of these trials..thanks for explaining it kona

[JBEX]

track ratings.. level of confidence, combined with quality of product

*** nyra, gulfstream, keeneland, monmouth
** meadowlands, hong kong, churchill, oaklawn, maryland, delaware, socal
* small harness, small flats

some idea, not going to put them all but that covers most


[xx] rating today
[xx] (x) today, actual rating.. playing different than actual rating (infrequent)


____________________________________

sha tin[*] (**) most still off the break

1am



((post))

R1 #6 keep winning ((3)) >> out @7.6
R2 #2 unite spirit ((2)) >> 3rd @ 9.9 °° $6.30 [9] (missed 2nd half a head)
R3 #9 regency poet ((9)) >> out @ 4.5
R4 #9 ever laugh ((6)) >> out @ 14 [10]

R5 #4 sure win win ((8)) half >> out at 35
R5 #12 noble desire ((3)) half >> 4th @ 13


R6 #13 stock legend ((5)) >> out @ 6.5 (1.25 off winner)
R7 #4 armor star ((4)) >> WINNER $7.90/2.90
R8 #2 regency bo bo ((11)) >> out @ 16
R9 pass
R10 #6 assimilate ((7)) >> out @ 6.7





.

[JBEX]

through 5..next will finish it

[JBEX]

finished

[trytrytry]

track ratings.. level of confidence, combined with quality of product

*** nyra, gulfstream, keeneland, monmouth
** meadowlands, hong kong, churchill, oaklawn, maryland, delaware, socal
* small harness, small flats

some idea, not going to put them all but that covers most


[xx] rating today
[xx] (x) today, actual rating.. playing different than actual rating (infrequent)


____________________________________

sha tin[*] (**) most still off the break

1am



((post))

R1 #6 keep winning ((3))
R2 #2 unite spirit ((2)) 222
R3 #9 regency poet ((9)) straight 1000 meters (5f)
R4 #9 ever laugh ((6))

R5 #4 sure win win ((8)) half
R5 #12 noble desire ((3)) half


R6 #13 stock legend ((5))
R7 #4 armor star ((4))
R8 #2 regency bo bo ((11))
R9 pass
R10 #6 assimilate ((7))





.

thanks for all that cappin looking these over now. get some units

[JBEX]

thanks for all that cappin looking these over now. get some units

no problem..love capping their product.don't know if you saw what I posted but they did the equivalent of about $176M usd on their last card..4 of those is about a whole meet at saratoga

[JBEX]

graded sunday

[darrell74]

JBEX,
I read DRF forums, and I watch videos
I subscribe to Racetrack Television Network at 24.99 a month on my roku

I study your plays and I still don't get it, you know something that I should know but I don't know

Teach me, please

I do Mohawk harness and I win because I study the horses in a race a lot and I know the drivers and the trainers

But these thoroughbreds it looks like you just pick up out of thin air but they win

[JBEX]

JBEX,
I read DRF forums, and I watch videos
I subscribe to Racetrack Television Network at 24.99 a month on my roku

I study your plays and I still don't get it, you know something that I should know but I don't know

Teach me, please

I do Mohawk harness and I win because I study the horses in a race a lot and I know the drivers and the trainers

But these thoroughbreds it looks like you just pick up out of thin air but they win

thanks for the compliment..there is a key concept I use that I feel helps me a lot that I can explain..it's central to most of what I do
and it's somewhat unconventional..even with it decisions are usually not black and white but fall a gray area..i'll explain it in your thread the next day or two..i'll leave out maidens as that's separate topic altogether

[JBEX]

thanks for the compliment..there is a key concept I use that I feel helps me a lot that I can explain..it's central to most of what I do
and it's somewhat unconventional..even with it decisions are usually not black and white but fall a gray area..i'll explain it in your thread the next day or two..i'll leave out maidens as that's separate topic altogether

I'll show you a central concept of mine I've been using for years..since you use the beyers you need to know the approximate value of 1 length at the common distances..

sprints ( 2.3)

mile (2)

1 1/8 (1.8)

what I'm looking for is horses who are exiting races at least 3 lengths* (preferably more) faster than they are running against today within a furlong of the same distance


horse has to be further behind in lengths going call to call

ex 2-2/3-4/3-6/4-7 (fin 4th by 7)

be in top 1/3 of the field positionally early and end up middle to back of the pack..essentially a horse who ran a figure 3-5 lengths slower than needed to win today but exiting a race that was at least 3 lengths faster than needed to win today running what I call a fade pattern......have observed over lots of time that these horses seem to benefit from the race they're exiting and now are facing slower horses ...at the same time you are not getting a horse who closed to come in the money which is the most obvious play there is including a comment line that says there was trouble..of course those types win but you don't deserve to get value on something that's obvious to everyone


let's say using above line in a 6f race and that horse ran a 75..that means the winner ran a 91 beyer..if a low to mid 80's beyer would win today's race than I like the above line as a set up..if a high 70's is needed today I really like it.. if high 80's I like it a lot less to maybe not liking it at all..keep it sprint to sprint and route to route when doing this..surface and track condition in general should be the same..there are exceptions where I will use on stretch outs but more picky about that and not going to cover it here..


horse should be returning ideally in 2-4 weeks but will consider 5..too long I feel loses some conditioning edge but these parameters will cover a lot of them..use common sense jockeys and trainers realizing if you take the best ones that'll bring down the odds..not saying don't use them rather just have some perspective


above is a good starting point and while not everything it's the core of what I do

[darrell74]

I see
Tricky
But I see how you get those random 10-1's out of nowhere to place
Clever

[JBEX]

I see
Tricky
But I see how you get those random 10-1's out of nowhere to place
Clever

when you look at the pp's try to see when it's happening and over time you'll get a feel for it.. don't jump to conclusions good or bad over the course of a few weeks.. any questions just ask

[JBEX]

track ratings.. level of confidence, combined with quality of product

*** nyra, gulfstream, keeneland, monmouth
** meadowlands, hong kong, churchill, oaklawn, maryland, delaware, socal
* small harness, small flats

some idea, not going to put them all but that covers most


[xx] rating today
[xx] (x) today, actual rating.. playing different than actual rating (infrequent)



happy valley [**]

weds 7:15am



only picking horses who've run after the break


R1 #3 who's horse ((3)) >> out @ 9.5
R3 #5 management supreme ((10)) >> 3rd @ 9.8 ..$5.90 *
R6 #4 universal go go ((6)) >> out @ 5.5
R7 #11 very sweet orange ((5)) >> out @ 30
R8 #5 beauty applause ((10)) >> 4th @ 6.5


* missed 2nd by a head


.

[littlekona]

LOVE the Headgear fashion in HK truely one of a kind i see no where else


Trevor race call could not say anything about ears twitching

[JBEX]

LOVE the Headgear fashion in HK truely one of a kind i see no where else


Trevor race call could not say anything about ears twitching

never thought about the headgear

yes..ears twitching beyond the detail of calls here

[JBEX]

graded today's

[JBEX]

sha tin @ 1am


price = odds +1 (prices given below)

R1 #3 beaut beaut ((5)) >> out @ 20
R2 #2 smiling success ((1)) >> out @ 8
R3 #1 chairman lo ((8)) >> out @ 17
R4 #11 wonder express ((6)) >> 4th @ 10


R5 #11 comfort life ((5)) >> out @ 24
R6 #3 pearl champion ((2)) >> out @ 3
R9 #6 aurora pegasus ((13)) >> out @ 39
R10 #4 water diviner ((12)) >> out @ 11

[JBEX]

finished