Race 2 going with the 2 Spring Emperor. Showed speed last out and puts on the shades. Highest last speed figure. 3 of the hoses are dropping from MSW so maybe they wake up. Taking a small shot at 6/1 ML.
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not really speed it's just the pace of that race on avg between first 2 calls was about 8 lengths faster than par
according to brisnet pace figures..translated to this field would put him on or near the lead..I always try to avoid fastest last out fig because too obvious,however pletcher just inside of you will ensure if you win it'll be a decent price..he's an insane 35% msw to mcl..glComment -
OK. Yeah should have stated the 2 showed more speed last out and with the shades on I assume like you said he will be on or near the lead. On the track profile 72% of races won at this 9 panels is on or near the lead. As far as the obvious factor I think maybe you are putting too much emphasis on that. Name of the game is to pick winners irrespective of how obvious they may seem.
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to me it's about finding something a little different than the crowd and letting the rest take care of itself.horses who win,come in the money have high speed figures,fast workouts are all obvious factors that everyone will see therefore the value is gone over time...from what we've learned from str ,slow workout times aren't necessarily bad ..winners are inevitable if you play this game (although I've been questioning that lately lol) but I feel you only get value over time if you look for the less obvious things ..that being said I will play favorites and under 5-1 horses but over a large sample like to find the big odds horses..what I enjoy most about the game is finding things that are not obvious and willing to endure the losing streaks that go along with itOK. Yeah should have stated the 2 showed more speed last out and with the shades on I assume like you said he will be on or near the lead. On the track profile 72% of races won at this 9 panels is on or near the lead. As far as the obvious factor I think maybe you are putting too much emphasis on that. Name of the game is to pick winners irrespective of how obvious they may seem.Comment -
OK. But I will say this. You are in a interesting position because by your own admission you rarely risk real $$, for the most part you just cap. (Probably a smart move as horse racing is a losing endeavor for most and with the take out fees very tough to beat long term.) So you can afford these losing streaks you mention. My gut feeling is that if you were playing on a more regular basis with real coins you could not afford this hit or miss strategy. I think the fact that you cap and do not play (except on big race days) puts you ahead of the game. I think the best way to enjoy the game if playing is the tournament route. A site like horse tourneys where the rake is 11.5%. Small $$ and big money games. GL moving forward.Comment -
if it were real money then you just have to manage it relative to the odds you're shooting for
..playing horses who lost by less than 3 lengths coming off the pace,who had a slightly bad trip and are coming back to try the same (or within a half furlong) distance,class and surface is not what I'm looking for..I'll pass the race rather than play one of those types..that's just me though, everybody does things their own wayComment -
One last thing Jbex and I will drop it. Again you seem more fixated on seeing and capitalizing on the obscure than picking winners. Maybe that helps explain the tough stretch you are experiencing now. In the example you described above if that pony was odds on I probably would not play it. 3/1 or better I might. I guess each to his own.Comment -
I've put too much time into this game to play obvious horses..the fun of it to me is attempting to read between the lines and come up with something..not all the time but a lot of the time..you will not get value over time if you just play the obvious..it's not about win % but roi and that's not just my opinion it's an agreed upon fact by experts who play this game..if you're biggest concern is about winning on any given day you're approach is wrong..it'll happen when it happensComment -
R9 #3 madame barbarian (30-1) play 43
since being switched over to (yes not from) horrible trainer metiver she has put together 2 very competitive beyers.. her best beyer right up with the best in here. exits an open 25k clm and today gets into a clm 40k n2L which I consider a drop.. while cancel just an avg at best jock he's an upgrade from 7 lb bug reyes.. probably not but the value will be thereComment -
play 42 43
out out
565
13.1
70.40
11/4
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R2 #1 oskar blues (12-1) play 44
assuming the mighty pletcher will go off odds on and if he does he wins with close to 90% with these types (msw 2yo fts).. take a shot with the expensive speightstown just to the inside of him who's one of the better first out sires.. dam was unplaced and first foal to race so 350k nice piece of change for this guy.. admittedly being out of an ap Indy dam might have something to do with that price even though as I said no production so far
R7 #4 lone sailor (12-1)
another 2yo msw where I'll try to beat a pletcher firster.. my usual cost relative to pedigree (only 120k but still expensive relatively speaking)..sprint oriented pedigree and capable first out trainer
R9 #4 spartiatis
been fairly successful on the dirt at or around this level past couple of years.. think the G1
a g vanderbilt (37-1) was just a little excersize to have him ready for this spot
R6 #2 machtree (6-1) half unit
first time starter talent goes 5 deep in this field imo (some might argue 1 or 2 more)
.. just to have a little action this one falls a bit into line with my angle.. 100k stud kitten's joy
out of a stakes placed mare.. 2 winners from 2 starters but neither a stakes winner.. 450k
a healthy price but not outrageously expensive for this info..also has speed influence forestry on the bottom which is a good thing.. the other firsters I was referring to are 4 8 9 10
R11 #8 dab (7-2)
have a hunch trainer terranova might regret losing this horse for 25k last race as was claimed by assmussen.. 130k 2yo purchase with only 6 career starts ran a real nice one in his turf debut at belmont 3 back and then was handicapped with extreme posts his last two starts.. fits well here in statebred mcl 40k @ 5.5f..guessing he'll be around 8/5Last edited by JBEX; 08-12-17, 05:01 PM.Comment -
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Hey Jbex Oskar Blues now 30/1 on the board 4 minutes out. If it hits will move you way up. GL.Comment -
BOOM. 33/1. Good call.Comment -
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Wow
excellent capping sirComment -
thanks easy, mr g+t and louisvillekid1..been a rough meet to the say the least..thought i just missed at first look..felt good to get that bobComment -
added R6Comment -
Very nice hit in Race 2 JBEX.
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Wow
your on fire!!!!
love itComment -
thanks jay tris 07
probably best start I've ever had louisville kid..if you're not aware I just pick and don't play but still like to get them right just the sameComment -
added R11Comment -
Just curious, are you using the form today? Or still Brisnet? If so, do you think the form help?Comment -
R2 #6 night owl (3-1)
whether ,no pun intended,they will run on the turf today
is still in question but noticed my angle on this one ..not over the top there but without breaking it down definitely
in the ballpark.msw 2 turns on the turf for 2yo fillies ..for these types of races the info I need is in brisnet so that's where I get the following ..I noticed the distance rating on this horse was the highest i've ever seen..he is by new sire animal kingdom (ky derby and dubai classic winner) and out of a curlin mare..the former has one of the most interesting pedigrees I have ever seen..by 2005 turf champion leroidesanimaux (died last year) who was a grandson of blushing groom..a very obscure bloodline going forward to today's pedigrees.the only other american line is through northern dancer's great son lyphard who was from his 3rd crop in 1969..he has lyphard
4×4 through the sire and dam..lyphard was more European and you don't see much filtering through to today's
american bloodlines ..all the other names going back 5 generations are all euros (stamina) I never heard of or might of at one time and don't remember ..no mr prospector,bold ruler,hail to reason or in reality and as I said the lyphard line is an obscure branch of nd..have a hunch animal kingdom's gonna be a good stamina influence for a long time to come. and the fact that he's a complete or almost complete outcross of most american bloodlines i think is a good thing but that's above my pay grade..for the record I have not formally studied pedigree. .just casual observation over a long period of time
added.. curlin on the bottom affects that rating also.. definetly a stamina influenceLast edited by JBEX; 08-13-17, 06:57 AM.Comment -
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Race 2 is off the turf.Comment -
R5 #3 dwizard (7-2) play 45
sire above avg first out and dam has been a real producer.. 6 winners from 7 starters of which 4 won at 2..understand these are 3yo's but that still couldn't be a bad thing.. btw 2 stakes winners among the 6.. bred and owned by the same guy scuderi..boy he's been at it a long time.. think he goes back to either gasper moschera or peter ferriola who were ny trainers in the 80's and 90's.. jose ortiz aboard.. trainer nevin has one other in here that has run well and is 5/2 ml (#8).. she is the breeder and part owner of that oneLast edited by JBEX; 08-13-17, 10:25 AM.Comment -
play 44
winner 69/22
598
13.6
161.40
11/4Comment -
made above pick contest play.. probably it for me todayComment -
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How is the contest going guys ....... Sorry. Summer time is way to busy. Lifeguard in does have its good points.... playing the ponies isn't one ofvthem. Lol
G L to allComment
