Kentucky derby thread thoughts and predictions . Keep it going only derby picks
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harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#246Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
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mikemcaSBR Posting Legend
- 03-10-10
- 10047
#248I was surprised by who ran the best race on the card.Somehow slipped past me.Comment -
mikemcaSBR Posting Legend
- 03-10-10
- 10047
#249Hart Time form and the other Euro figs go by a weight for age scale I think.Totally different than USA figuremakersComment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#251it said time form horses are about 12-14 points higher, im reading more ,good stuff, im curious, some tracks, put out the total distance a horse ran, in the race, is there a site that does that for every race and track, mostly the derby i would like to see, think gulfstream does it.Comment -
mikemcaSBR Posting Legend
- 03-10-10
- 10047
#252
the 2nd place horse
it said time form horses are about 12-14 points higher, im reading more ,good stuff, im curious, some tracks, put out the total distance a horse ran, in the race, is there a site that does that for every race and track, mostly the derby i would like to see, think gulfstream does it.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#253Quintal Bayama northfield race 10Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#254BELMONT
RACE 1 Tapulous
RACJJHHHUHHUJHJJJJJJJJE 2 UnbridIIJJJled LogicLast edited by harthebar; 05-07-14, 11:42 AM.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
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Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36100
#256[QUOTE=mikemca;21803033]the 2nd place horse
Just checked out T-graph's analysis of the derby on You Tube. Brown liked Commanding Curve as a live long shot with a similar pattern to Mine that Bird.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#257can you give me the link to this, i would like to see it, but i cant find it[QUOTE=Easy-Rider 66;21808537]Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36100
#258[QUOTE=harthebar;21808651]can you give me the link to this, i would like to see it, but i cant find it
Hey Hart had some trouble pasting the link. Go to You Tube and search for Thorograph Kentucky Derby. You should find it at the top of the page.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#259
is this it
[QUOTE=harthebar;21808651]can you give me the link to this, i would like to see it, but i cant find itComment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36100
#260[QUOTE=harthebar;21808709]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_6N4ndPG2g
is this it
Correct. Take a look let us know what you think. Did not access it this year before the derby, but wish I would have.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 05-07-14, 06:34 PM.Comment -
mikemcaSBR Posting Legend
- 03-10-10
- 10047
#261[quote=Easy-Rider 66;21808537]
Yeah half that board was talking about the other CC for a while.Well before the analysis.
TFUS liked him also for pretty much the same reasons...this was their write up
Commanding Curve (50-1): He is our favorite bomb in the 2014 Kentucky Derby. He has improved his speed figure in every start. He had a tough time of it at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He put in a big effort to finish third. A hot pace would very much work in his favor. He draws outside but figures to be taking back and angling over as soon as the gate opens. He has a powerful Late Pace rating of 93. He figures to be a huge price. We consider him a very interesting horse in this spot.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
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harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#263mike ,the numbers i got shaded in red, what would they translate into a beyer
8Pink
5-1
Midwest Thoroughbreds
Clm Price: $25,000 Light Green, Black Yoke and Emblem, Black Cap
Laura Perillo ( 0-0-0-0 )
Socialsaul ¼ (L)
B.g.6 Read the Footnotes - So Social by Proud Truth, NY
122 Wilmer A Garcia
( 8-0-2-0 )
2014: 4 1 1 0 $46,790 Turf: 1 0 0 0 $395
2013: 10 2 1 1 $114,695 Off Dirt: 7 2 2 0 $108,040
Life: 29 6 7 2 $431,515 Distance: 8 2 0 1 $65,560
Bel: 9 3 2 0 $126,065 CLASS RATING: 89
04Apr14 Aqu5 gd 1N¼¾ :49¶¶1:13»¼ 1:54»^ 4g Clm 35000 108-85 3 2¸ 3¹ 2¹ 2«¬ 1¸¡ Garcia W A 118 fL 5.10 Socialsaul118¸¡ SacredGround118¶¡ Joan'sChoice118¸¶¡ chase 2p,ask 5/16pl 5
13Mar14 Aqu7 ft s 1B½¸ :47¶¶ 1:12»^ 1:44½¸ 4g Clm 50000 109-91 3 4» 6º 5»¡ 4¾ 4¶^¡ Garcia W A 118 fL 24.25 AussiAustin 119¼ Photon118¸£ Metaurus118¶£ rail to 1/2,5w upper 7Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#264they were pretty right on with commanding curve, im just starting to read on about these numbers ,and beyers,timesform, what are the numbers called in the other form , the one i pasted , and how would you relate them to beyer, like what would a 108-85 be[QUOTE=Easy-Rider 66;21808749]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_6N4ndPG2g
is this it
Correct. Take a look let us know what you think. Did not access it this year before the derby, but wish I would have.Comment -
mikemcaSBR Posting Legend
- 03-10-10
- 10047
#265Think it is equibase or trackmaster ratings.No idea what they translate to on the beyer scaleComment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36100
#266[QUOTE=harthebar;21812969]they were pretty right on with commanding curve, im just starting to read on about these numbers ,and beyers,timesform, what are the numbers called in the other form , the one i pasted , and how would you relate them to beyer, like what would a 108-85 be
Thorograph numbers are typically referred to as sheet numbers. Ragozin sheets are their main competitor. As I understand them one of the main parameters used in sheet numbers is ground loss(Also use beaten lengths and weight differential among other factors). Not under the impression that Beyers account for ground loss. Timeform is interesting in that they incorporate pace into their final figure. Not sure what a 108-85 could be translated into.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 05-08-14, 01:16 PM.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#267Ok guys preakness talk
who do we know thats in for sure
cc
social inclusion
ride on curlin winner
danzaComment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#268PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN - May 14 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55555 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN CALIFORNIA CHROME -200 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55556 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN DANZA +700 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55557 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN SOCIAL INCLUSION +800 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55558 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN BAYERN +1200 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55559 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN RIDE ON CURLIN +1200 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55560 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN KID CRUZ +1400 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55561 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN DYNAMIC IMPACT +1600 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55562 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN STRONG MANDATE +1800 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55563 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN GENERAL A ROD +2250 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55564 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN PABLO DEL MONTE +2250 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55565 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN RING WEEKEND +2250 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55566 PREAKNESS STAKES - ODDS TO WIN RIA ANTONIA +3000 PREAKNESS STAKES PROPS Lines From:05-12-2014 21:29:49 Cut Off # Type Description Odds CALIFORNIA CHROME - WIN PREAKNESS PREAKNESS STAKES PROPS - May 14 WILL CALIFORNIA CHROME WIN THE PREAKNESS STAKES ALL WAGERS HAVE ACTION May 14 - 6:00 PM 55581 CALIFORNIA CHROME - WIN PREAKNESS YES -200 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55582 CALIFORNIA CHROME - WIN PREAKNESS NO +160 WILL CALIFORNIA CHROME WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN ALL WAGERS HAVE ACTION May 14 - 6:00 PM 55583 CALIFORNIA CHROME - WIN TRIPLE CROWN YES +200 May 14 - 6:00 PM 55584 CALIFORNIA CHROME - WIN TRIPLE CROWN NO -300 Last edited by harthebar; 05-12-14, 08:30 PM.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#269and if you like s c you get 8-1, i think he will get over betComment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#270Bax Of Life is scheduled to run on 5/12/2014 in Race 7 at WoodbineComment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#271Right On Molly is scheduled to run on 5/12/2014 in Race 11 at Yonkers Raceway. 11
One more laugh yonkers race 12Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#272So ,these sucker odds have cc at 1/2 to win the preakness, what does amyone think he will go off,
they have him 2-1 win triple crown....horse odds california chrome -155 social inclusion +600 ride on curlin +800 dynamic impact +800 bayern +1000 general a rod +1200 kid cruz +2000 pablo del monte +2000 ring weekend +3000 ria antonia +5000 preakness stakes - odds to win - may 14 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55555 preakness stakes - odds to win california chrome -200 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55556 preakness stakes - odds to win danza +700 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55557 preakness stakes - odds to win social inclusion +800 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55558 preakness stakes - odds to win bayern +1200 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55559 preakness stakes - odds to win ride on curlin +1200 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55560 preakness stakes - odds to win kid cruz +1400 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55561 preakness stakes - odds to win dynamic impact +1600 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55562 preakness stakes - odds to win strong mandate +1800 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55563 preakness stakes - odds to win general a rod +2250 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55564 preakness stakes - odds to win pablo del monte +2250 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55565 preakness stakes - odds to win ring weekend +2250 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55566 preakness stakes - odds to win ria antonia +3000 preakness stakes props lines from:05-12-2014 21:29:49 cut off # type description odds california chrome - win preakness preakness stakes props - may 14 will california chrome win the preakness stakes all wagers have action may 14 - 6:00 pm 55581 california chrome - win preakness yes -200 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55582 california chrome - win preakness no +160 will california chrome win the triple crown all wagers have action may 14 - 6:00 pm 55583 california chrome - win triple crown yes +200 may 14 - 6:00 pm 55584 california chrome - win triple crown no -300 Comment -
balls2wallSBR MVP
- 12-20-09
- 2642
#273anyone thinking about taking "will CC win the preakness -NO" for +160??Comment -
strSBR Posting Legend
- 01-12-09
- 11752
#274I just saw a picture of Social Inclusion wearing front bandages in his 1/2 mile workout .
Did he have fronts on in the Wood?
I do not recall seeing them when I watched the race but he could have.Comment -
Easy-Rider 66BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-12
- 36100
#275Just watched the replay on You Tube of the Wood. Looks like SI was wearing front bandages.Comment -
SlimpickensSBR MVP
- 10-28-12
- 2030
#276NO. I would just try and bet another horse. Think there is only 1 or 2 with a real chance to beat him. If those were the odds for yes/no in the Belmont I would take no but Chrome would have to win by 10+ for that too happen with major challengers awaiting in the Belmont.Comment -
SlimpickensSBR MVP
- 10-28-12
- 2030
#277
Why are they sucker odds? He opened up at offshore books at about -120 and has been bet up. He is probably going to go off at about 2/5. Is Danza running now I didnt hear that?Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#278well i mostly met the derby odds, it would be better to play the enitre field, if you say no ...right.....you would get much better price, i dont think he will go off at 2/5 yet 1/2 i think more like 3/5 or 4/5 , i think s.c. will take a lot more money, and so will danza,, if this race was out west he would be 1/9 only joking.....slim..would you be content taking 1/2 on him....,and i think taking 2-1 to win the triple crown is a fools play, it really dosent matter, ROC will win, kid cruz...will be there....with cc...lol how is that.....I DONT THINK DANZA IS GOING TO RUN IN THE PREAKNESS...Comment -
SlimpickensSBR MVP
- 10-28-12
- 2030
#279I wouldnt take 1/2 on any horse ever. Just saying he will be an overwhelming favorite. I cant wait until the formulator pp's come out so I can try and see why you think Ride On Curlin is all of a sudden supposed to turn into a super horse.Comment -
harthebarSBR Posting Legend
- 12-09-11
- 15708
#280Dont think he i a super horse, i dont think cc is a super horse, last super horse was big red, if cc wins the triple crown then maybe i will consider it, i think he is do, roc, i hope you saw the ride borel gave him, sure he could lose, so can anyone....i think roc getting 7th was super considering he ran, way more distance than cc.watch the replay, just him.....Comment
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