NHL 2 'dog system. (begins 1/7/11)

[rthoughton]

I am betting these plays. I am using sbr book and betphoenix.
thanks for all of the interest.
Yes, I booked the Flyers at + $, and got the win. get it in early, maybe, sometimes.

S1 YTD 9-2, +8u
S2 YTD 4-6, +1.3u

[rthoughton]

PLAYS FOR MONDAY MLKDAY JAN 17.

S1: ATLANTA THRASHERS. +115

s2: Calgary Flamers. +145

[Dbear13]

PLAYS FOR MONDAY MLKDAY JAN 17.

S1: ATLANTA THRASHERS. +115

s2: Calgary Flamers. +145

The lines moving on the Thrashers...hopefully u got on it early...my book has it at even

[rthoughton]

How does anyone feel about adding a system... hit me today while driving. We play the 'dog with the best record, so why not play against the favorite with the worst record. just a thought.

[dvw5bf]

always worth a shot at a new system, at least to track for a bit to see how it does

[Dbear13]

How does anyone feel about adding a system... hit me today while driving. We play the 'dog with the best record, so why not play against the favorite with the worst record. just a thought.

Would have worked today...Islanders lost.

[Yungmef]

Columbo +153, essentially rlm mofos

[keemosabi]

Also 27-53 is .337, meaning the average odds need to be +197 to break even. Have you got the average odds the biggest dogs have been at handy too?

I'm kind of new so can you please explain to me how you did this calculation?

[Axis]

^^
Because if you bet 1 unit on EVERY one of those games...at +197 you'd have won 53.19 units (27 wins X 1.97) subtract away the 53 losses at 1unit each and you'd be up .19 units...

That's where the calculation came from.

[chizzy]

How does anyone feel about adding a system... hit me today while driving. We play the 'dog with the best record, so why not play against the favorite with the worst record. just a thought.

Really like the idea. hope it works out. one that hit me is...would there be any joy in playing any underdogs that are higher on the points standing than the fave they are playing? something to look at maybe?

[easywinner]

I like the new system idea i wonder how it would have fared so far, are you going to start tracking it in here?

[Optional]

I'm kind of new so can you please explain to me how you did this calculation?

27(wins)/80(total picks) = .337 probability of a win

To work out Odds from probability (1-Prob)/Prob or (1-.337)/.337 which = 1.967:1 (Decimal $2.97/US +197)

[bjornbarspingvin]

Okay, both games went to OT haha. I guess we place bets on regulation wins?...
my bad run continues for january. I want a December run, that run was awesome.... oh well. Tonight there is alot of good games on.

[rthoughton]

PLAYS FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 18th:

S1: DETROIT RED WINGS (62pt) +130

S1 YTD 9-2, +9.15u

S2: Columbus Blue Jackets +150

S2 YTD 4-7, +0.30u

S3: Anaheim Ducks -105

S3 YTD 0-0-0.

[blaucoin]

Question: What's S3? I thought you were starting to track the favorite with the worst record and go against them?

[tuxStyle]

Ottawa seems to be a favorite today (at least at Pinnacle) and probably they have the worst record.

[blaucoin]

Ottawa seems to be a favorite today (at least at Pinnacle) and probably they have the worst record.

Thats what I'm getting at, I was just wondering the reason behind the Anaheim pick thats all

[Optional]

Because Anaheim is playing Ottawa. And as you suggested, he's going against the lowest ranked favorite.

[bobturner]

thank you for today plays.

[peterpan19]

looks really interesting, anybody backtest it so far ?

[rthoughton]

haha. yeah, I can see how that is confusing. System 3 is betting the 'dog who is playing the worst favored team. Ottawa has the least points of any of the favorites on today's slate. so I am playing their opp, Anaheim.

[blaucoin]

Because Anaheim is playing Ottawa. And as you suggested, he's going against the lowest ranked favorite.

I have Anaheim being the favorite not Ottawa, am I missing something?lol

[rthoughton]

I booked Anaheim as the 'dog, not the favorite.. looks like it moved on ya.

[blaucoin]

AHH! I see now, I was thinking the least points of the favorite...and playing the dog. Thanks bro!

[rthoughton]

haha. just kidding. welcome.

[blaucoin]

I booked Anaheim as the 'dog, not the favorite.. looks like it moved on ya.

Got ya! I still have Anaheim being at -105 its just Ottawa is -115 lol

[blaucoin]

Stupid me

[peterpan19]

do you play every night ? even if it is only a night with 2 plays ?

[peterpan19]

ok backtracked last year Januar using system 1, 17-17 +3.34 using closing lines

[Axis]

^^
Which did you back track? S1, S2, or S3?

[peterpan19]

ok backtracked last year Januar using system 1, 17-17 +3.34 using closing lines

read again

[tuxStyle]

ok backtracked last year Januar using system 1, 17-17 +3.34 using closing lines

How many lost in a row?

[Axis]

read again

Thanks...dont know how I missed that haha...

[peterpan19]

How many lost in a row?

3 in a row max

Anyway I think you need a few month of action b4 you use this system, meaning January or maybe mid December might be a good time to start, but I could be wrong too. Takes a lot of time to backtest 1 month. Wont be able to do anything else this week, maybe next

BOL

[rthoughton]

Closing lines can be a little deceiving, tho, i think. I mean, we have witnessed a lot of movement, especially considering system 1. System2 not so much, because we are just snagging the highest money. no reason to change that. but when looking at a team very high in the standings, as a dog, usually on the road, we have witnessed a lot of movement. Even a lot of movement out of 'dog-dom. I think it is very important to get early lines using S1, not closing ones.
holla.