'dogs tonight? every night?

[rthoughton]

THE TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS MADE IT ANOTHER GREAT NIGHT!!
haha. I think everyone thinks that the Sharks are better than they actually are... i mean, we dont really hear much about here in the East and are basically on autopilot assuming they are good. I think we are really learning a lot about Hockey. I always hated betting hockey, because it was too difficult. It is not as difficult if you eliminate the favorites.

Dudes... you can talk about plays in this thread. I was just commenting on how I cant even see my picks on the same page anymore!! ha. it's all good.
Im glad you are so interested in this thread. Post away here all you want. just remember how much i like sbr points (wink). ha.

That dubya for the Torontos last night made this THREAD a .667 win percentage. that is hot hot. And I was a little concerned considering the 'yotes Habs and Isles were down early.

YTD: 14-7, +13.05u

[jonnyboy21]

Let's get started for tonight.....Caps to bounce back tonight? Juicy odds.

[rthoughton]

I think Ill be on the Craps and the Pens tonight. Gotta love talent like that at + money. but I expected to be taking TB at home. looks like the oddsmakers prefer the Lightning.
See you guys around 6pm with the plays.

[Axis]

My Plays tonight:
Colorado Avalanche +155

Possible:
Pittsburgh Penguins +115...up in the air a bit, need to do a little more research.

[jonnyboy21]

Yes my dogs tonight, provisionally anyway will be the Pens and the Caps. Prob take the Hawks as can't see Avs doing anything there.

[bjornbarspingvin]

I think Ill be on the Craps and the Pens tonight. Gotta love talent like that at + money. but I expected to be taking TB at home. looks like the oddsmakers prefer the Lightning. See you guys around 6pm with the plays.

TB is a pretty strong at home, but their goalies are playing so-so.

[HollywoodPuck]

I think Ill be on the Craps and the Pens tonight. Gotta love talent like that at + money. but I expected to be taking TB at home. looks like the oddsmakers prefer the Lightning.
See you guys around 6pm with the plays.

Yeah I really like Pitt on the road tonight. They are a pissed off team that has lost three in a row. They are also 12-6 in revenging a loss to an opponent this season. I also like the over on blues vs Ducks. -135 The odds are not great but, two teams that will at least get to five goals. I don't like the Caps tonight. They are 3-4 in back to back games and TB is 9-3 with 2 days of rest.

[bjornbarspingvin]

Col are 4-1 on the road in the last 5 games. I would stay away from that game even though Chi is 6-2 in it´s last 8 home games.

Ana and Mon seems good bets. Any game when WSH is one of the teams seems to be a lost bet, bet for or against doesn´t matter. They are so inconsistent.

TB is 10-4 at home in the last 14 games, but 1-8 against WSH.

[Dharmonize]

I am glad discussion allowed. I wouldn´t have been blabing away so much, but yesterday when I came back after only a few hours after my morning post, I saw there was like more than a page and half full of new posts. So I kinda got carried away by that. Gonna come back later with some picks, haven´t even looked at today´s plays yet.

[HollywoodPuck]

Yeah the Blues are 6-12 on the road this season and letting up an average of 3.6 goals on the road. The Ducks are 15-8 at home too. Maybe the play for tonight is -1.5 Ducks (+240)? I hate the spreads though. This is my parlay for tonight.

Ducks -120
Ducks vs Blues Over 5 -140
Pens +110

[HollywoodPuck]

Pens odds are dropping on Sportsbook.com! +105 now

[Dharmonize]

Pens and Caps both look good as dogs. But they are dogs for a reason, don´t you think? One of them will definitely hit, so if you play both, you will make at least a small profit. My dog of the day are the Blues. They haven´t played well lately and Anaheim is good at home, but I will probably take my chances with them tonight. Just won´t place the bet yet, the line might move a bit. Unlike the Caps and Pens, if I was to play them, I would hop right on.

[Siresco]

Pens and Caps both look good as dogs. But they are dogs for a reason, don´t you think? One of them will definitely hit, so if you play both, you will make at least a small profit. My dog of the day are the Blues. They haven´t played well lately and Anaheim is good at home, but I will probably take my chances with them tonight. Just won´t place the bet yet, the line might move a bit. Unlike the Caps and Pens, if I was to play them, I would hop right on.

Idk i was looking into that but i must say Jonas has been playing outstanding lately for the Ducks and he might start tonight against the blues. So if anything i would lean Caps/Avalanche Instead

[rthoughton]

TB is a pretty strong at home, but their goalies are playing so-so.

yup. and the Capitals have some of the best players in the world. I think they have a chance at a win tonight. As mentioned, I was expecting to play TB in this thread. so, in my mind, im thinking/expecting caps as favorites even considering the quality of play in TB. So now I get the Caps at +. My dog thread is 14-7. I play the Caps. No thinking about it.
Apply this same theory to the Pitt game youre gonna study. Except Crosby is out. Ha. Let's put Pitt on one card and No Pitt on another and stick 'em into a hat...
Personally, I say, you get a team either a. at this slot in the standings b. with that kind of talent at 'dog money. you play it. Gamble, baby.

ps. We should all be doing shit now instead of posting on a message board. Dont you feel like the hour leading up to the games is the perfect time for all of this.
Good luck.

[rthoughton]

Yeah I really like Pitt on the road tonight. They are a pissed off team that has lost three in a row. They are also 12-6 in revenging a loss to an opponent this season. I also like the over on blues vs Ducks. -135 The odds are not great but, two teams that will at least get to five goals. I don't like the Caps tonight. They are 3-4 in back to back games and TB is 9-3 with 2 days of rest.

I think the "lost three in a row" portion is huge red flag when considering the Pens tonight. Is that not the games missed by Sid? I remember Malkin lighting up once when Sid got hurt. 0-3? uh oh. (**oh ya, me, stop thinking. Just gamble, baby. haha)
However, that being said, the 12-6 avenger portion surely made up for.
I am absolutely not concerned with totals at -135 here.

Interesting note on the Caps. thanks.

[rthoughton]

Yeah the Blues are 6-12 on the road this season and letting up an average of 3.6 goals on the road. The Ducks are 15-8 at home too. Maybe the play for tonight is -1.5 Ducks (+240)? I hate the spreads though. This is my parlay for tonight.

Ducks -120
Ducks vs Blues Over 5 -140
Pens +110

Dude. seriously?

[rthoughton]

Idk i was looking into that but i must say Jonas has been playing outstanding lately for the Ducks and he might start tonight against the blues. So if anything i would lean Caps/Avalanche Instead

HA. this is great stuff.

I was thinking about suggesting we play every dog on the slate tonight. And in almost every post, there is a great explanation why one of the different dog or combos of 'dogs is better for whatever reason than the other.
at 14-7 +1300, If feeling pretty damned good about it.
We hit half, we up nice. Plus it would be extra sweet going into that Blues game start feeling good about yourself.

Anyway, just a thought.

[Axis]

Playing every dog is not generally a good idea.

There are only 4 games tonight...so the lines on the games are pretty close to what they should be...books don't have much to look over on nights like these.

[rthoughton]

you dont think 2 will win?

[rthoughton]

cuz i do. i think that's a guarantee.

[rthoughton]

tell me not to.

[Axis]

Haha, I can't say for certain what will happen...otherwise I'd be a millionaire.

It's a personal choice. I wouldn't ever blindly bet every dog.

[jonnyboy21]

Finalised plays:

Caps and Pens are my bitches tonight.

Backing Chicago on the ML.

Depending on those 3, may back the Ducks at what is now a tempting price with the line moving in the direction of the visitors.

[Axis]

Chicago is way over valued...they should be like -110...they are not that much better than Colorado...

[jonnyboy21]

Agree a bit short but I can't see Colorado winning so that's what matters with my bet winning or losing ultimately

[Dharmonize]

I guess what rthoughton means is that you can´t take the Pens and Caps as regular dogs, for there is a good chance they both win. And you are on the plus side for the night. Any other dog of the two remaining is a great bonus. That´s why there really is a certain potential in taking all the dogs tonight. However, I can´t remember the last time I did that. I still can´t decide.

[JC2008]

Colorado's won all 3 games so far this season, coming off a win against Detroit two days ago as well. Budaj is in net, not Anderson (who has lost his last four starts). I think +161 is great value on Colorado..

As for the Blues/Anaheim game, why are the Ducks only -110? Is that not shady? Blues win this one imo. GL everybody, let's cash!

[Dharmonize]

Idk i was looking into that but i must say Jonas has been playing outstanding lately for the Ducks and he might start tonight against the blues. So if anything i would lean Caps/Avalanche Instead

I know the Ducks are good right now. I just see no value in their line, and on the other side the Blues on the losing streak are worth a shot. I would not talk anybody in taking them. I just personally like them, as they fit into my cathegory of a value bet. They might lose easily. As for Colorado, it is really the only dog tonight I don´t like. Chigago lost all three times this season to them, and they will definitely seek a revenge. What better spot than being rested at home?

[jonnyboy21]

The ducks have the 2nd best home record in the western conference, the bBues are low on confidence, on a losing streak, and they are just about an even money underdog now with the line movements. How is that value? But hey, disagreements on matches are why the likes of Betfair are so popular.

For me, the value lies firmly with the ducks as one of the best home teams in the western, whereas the blues are one of the worst road teams.

[rthoughton]

Haha, I can't say for certain what will happen...otherwise I'd be a millionaire.

It's a personal choice. I wouldn't ever blindly bet every dog.

Ugh. Dude. It's not even close to blindly betting every dog. you like colorado. i like pens and caps. this dude likes the Blues... get my point? they are all good plays. there are only 4 games. they all have a nice shot at a win. Dogs have been winning.
OF COURSE you wouldnt recommend betting all the dogs on an entire slate. but tonight seems like one of the very few nights you could/should do it.
I like Colorado tonight. I love being able to play the Caps and Pens tonight in this thread. Shit's tight.
Why not add the Blues? theyre even. If two of the first three mentioned hit, we are up no matter the outcome of the 1030 game, with a chance at a really nice night... again. I am +1305 in 21 picks.
I think that with these 4 games tonight, 2 underdogs will win. you tell me which two. then i wont have to play all 4.

[Dharmonize]

they are just about an even money underdog now with the line movements. How is that value?

The last time I checked they were + 115. The line movement in this one is exactly the opposite of what I expected . On the other hand, that only indicates there is a value. Who do you think has moved this line?

[Axis]

Ugh. Dude. It's not even close to blindly betting every dog. you like colorado. i like pens and caps. this dude likes the Blues... get my point? they are all good plays. there are only 4 games. they all have a nice shot at a win. Dogs have been winning.
OF COURSE you wouldnt recommend betting all the dogs on an entire slate. but tonight seems like one of the very few nights you could/should do it.
I like Colorado tonight. I love being able to play the Caps and Pens tonight in this thread. Shit's tight.
Why not add the Blues? theyre even. If two of the first three mentioned hit, we are up no matter the outcome of the 1030 game, with a chance at a really nice night... again. I am +1305 in 21 picks.
I think that with these 4 games tonight, 2 underdogs will win. you tell me which two. then i wont have to play all 4.

I understand that...but there are also people in the thread who said they like the favorite...for instance Johnny is betting Chicago tonight (they play Colorado)

Every day, it's easy to find someone who likes each of the dogs on the schedule. But yes, when there are only 4 dogs...and you already like 3 of them, I could see why you'd just bet the 4th...

I just don't bet by the "we'd be up money even if they lost" because you'd be up more if they lose and you hadn't played it in the first place haha...

I'm not gonna tell you which 2 to play tonight haha...I myself am playing Pittsburgh and Colorado. I could lose both and the other 2 win but...that's just how I personally feel about betting...I won't bet all 4 just because...

[Dharmonize]

I just don't bet by the "we'd be up money even if they lost" because you'd be up more if they lose and you hadn't played it in the first place haha...

You´re killing me, man So how about not playing anything anymore? We would all be up forever! Just kidding. Yes, that is the fun of betting. The chance that the two you take will lose and the other two will win.

[jonnyboy21]

The last time I checked they were + 115. The line movement in this one is exactly the opposite of what I expected . On the other hand, that only indicates there is a value. Who do you think has moved this line?

Yeah its a bit strange but the same thing happened in ducks' past 2 home games, always underestimated by the public it seems!

[rthoughton]

Id rather be up 5 than down 200. Im up 1300. Gamble. House money. They all have a shot. they might go 4-0. Why pick two? unless youre nostradamus.
I feel like you keep saying things like "I understand that" and "I could see why you'd..." when clearly you dont! ha. It seems to me that you have this opinion on something but are applying it to the wrong thing.
You wont bet all 4 just because what...? because they are all a possible win, and you cant tell me which are guarantees...
Maybe you just aren't saying it right, ha, but it seems to me like you dont understand what Im saying at all. haha.
I have already booked all 4 'dogs at my book.
Hopefully you don't prove me wrong with a 2-0 night out of a 2-2 total. or by picking the ONLY winner.
Anyway, I personally think that the Blues could win. And I expect 2 of the other 3.

PLAYS FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 12th.

+EV

+105

+160

+ev

THREAD YEAR TO DATE: 14-7-0 (.667). +13.05u