Bob Loblaw's Totals

Bob Loblaw · 11-30-10, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by cecil127

hey Bob,
im going to the game tomorrow nite (bos/phl-my 1st glass seats!) and would like your opinion on a total.
pm me if you wish.
thank you sir

I don't think I can take an Over with the Bruins pumping out Unders left and right. I also don't like taking Unders at Philly. At this point I don't really know but if I do play something it likely won't be a strong play.

cecil127 · 11-30-10, 05:45 PM

i was kinda thinking the same thing and hoping the broad st. bullies come out firing after those 2 ot loses.
ill probably just go with my gut and take the fly boyz pl. although its been a while since philly covered the pl at home vs the baby bears

check starting goalies and take it from there.....

Jordan23 · 11-30-10, 06:17 PM

Good luck!

dugdogg · 11-30-10, 09:25 PM

i forgot to comment earlier and i just got back to the gym and the hawks game started...but i think they are one loss away from tying their season total for home regulation losses already. i expect the hawks to play extra tough at home the rest of the year...something to keep in mind

Bob Loblaw · 11-30-10, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

i forgot to comment earlier and i just got back to the gym and the hawks game started...but i think they are one loss away from tying their season total for home regulation losses already. i expect the hawks to play extra tough at home the rest of the year...something to keep in mind

Good call. Hawks returning from a long road trip, Hossa out, and the Blues getting back to their defensive ways in their last 5 games I never would have expected anything close to the offensive performance the Hawks put up tonight. Boy was I wrong.

dugdogg · 12-01-10, 12:07 AM

ya that was a shocker

Bob Loblaw · 12-01-10, 02:37 PM

Last Post: 2-2 -0.63 units
All Posts: 134-99 +22.36 units

Preds/Jackets Under 5 +115

Oilers/Canadiens Under 5.5 -125

Bruins/Flyers 1P Over 1.5 +105

Caps/Blues 1P Under 1.5 -105

Yotes/Wild Over 5.5 +130

Nucks/Flames Over 5.5 +106

Panthers/Ducks 1P Under 1.5 -120

dugdogg · 12-02-10, 01:37 AM

great night again!

Bob Loblaw · 12-02-10, 01:23 PM

Last Post: 5-2 +3.16 units
All Posts: 139-101 +25.52 units

Lightning/Bruins Under 5.5 -125 - Road/Home B2B situation for the Bruins. Unders are 26-12 (68%) in the NHL in this situation. Bruins are 3-0 to the Under in Road/Home B2B's and 4-0 to the Under in all B2B's. Not to mention 9 of the Bruins last 10 Home games have stayed Under. 4 of the last 6 meetings have stayed Under.

Canadiens/Devils Under 5 -105 - Canadiens 10-0 to the Under on the Road this year. Devils have put together 7 consecutive Unders overall. 9 of the last 11 meetings have stayed Under. Canadiens 3-1 to the Under in B2B's.

Islanders Team Total Under 2.5 -110 - Islanders have scored 2 or less goals in 12 of their last 13 games.

Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3 -120 - Leafs have scored 3 or more in 5 consecutive Home games. Oilers have allowed 3 or more in 33 of their last 39 road games dating back to last year. They've allowed 3 or more in each of their B2B's this year and 6 straight dating back to last year.

Thrashers/Penguins Over 5.5 -115 - Recent stats don't back this one but I'm not ready to give up on these Over friendly Thrashers on the Road. After last game in Colorado where I tuned in late to hear the announcer say "we've had plenty of posts tonight" the Thrashers are now 9-2 to the Over on the Road. The scoring started to pick up late in that one and if some of those posts the announcer was talking about find the back of the net then they are 10-1 on the road. Neither team is giving them up but both teams are doing some scoring. Somewhat of a gut play as well.

Sharks/Sens Under 5.5 -105 - Gut play

Panthers/Kings 1P Under 1.5 -120 - Panthers now 11-2 to the 1P Under on the Road. 7 of their last 8 1P's overall have stayed Under and 4 of 5 B2B's have stayed Under.

skilz4milz · 12-02-10, 03:37 PM

BOL tonight Bob! The Ottawa under was a lean for me. Now that I see you on it I may just play it. Like all the other picks too.

fjordo · 12-02-10, 03:58 PM

Good job. Out of curiosity, I'm wondering what your record and profit would look like if you had changed the totals. Taking under 5 @ + instead of under 5.5 @ -, and over 6 instead of 5.5, etc. Any idea if this would help or hurt?

dugdogg · 12-02-10, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by fjordo

Good job. Out of curiosity, I'm wondering what your record and profit would look like if you had changed the totals. Taking under 5 @ + instead of under 5.5 @ -, and over 6 instead of 5.5, etc. Any idea if this would help or hurt?

why would that matter? he's making calls on the current line

fjordo · 12-02-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

why would that matter? he's making calls on the current line

It doesn't. I was just wondering.

Bob Loblaw · 12-02-10, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by fjordo

Good job. Out of curiosity, I'm wondering what your record and profit would look like if you had changed the totals. Taking under 5 @ + instead of under 5.5 @ -, and over 6 instead of 5.5, etc. Any idea if this would help or hurt?

No idea really. I did it yesterday in the Wild game and took the 5.5 instead of 5. I got a lucky win there and it gave me an extra .30 units. I've only done it 1 or 2 other times I think. I consider it every day but the majority of the time I don't like the odds I'm getting in return.

dugdogg · 12-02-10, 05:25 PM

my books dont offer that...how much was the extra juice to buy the half goal? what book do you use?

Bob Loblaw · 12-02-10, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

my books dont offer that...how much was the extra juice to buy the half goal? what book do you use?

5dimes

They were offering the Wild over 5 at probably around -135. I took 5.5 at +130.

fjordo · 12-02-10, 06:45 PM

I can't get points on team totals or periods. Using Pinnacle, the lines are very similar to yours, and here are the lines with the points changed.

Lightning/Bruins Under 5.5 -125 - Under 5 +130
Canadiens/Devils Under 5 -105 - Under 4.5 +177
Thrashers/Penguins Over 5.5 -115 - Over 6 +106
Sharks/Sens Under 5.5 -105 - Under 5 +196

fjordo · 12-02-10, 07:24 PM

Let me start by saying Don't change a thing, you're killing it right now, but here's a little food for thought.

After scouring through your thread here is what I found. Excluding 1st period and team total plays, so just your Over/Under plays, not including tonight, are 30-29-3 for 51%, and your average line is around -107.

If you had changed your unders to 5 instead of 5.5 etc, your record for over/unders would stand at 21-32-9, for 40%. Judging by tonights lines, I would say there is, on average, about a 64 cent difference for taking the extra half point, which would make your average line around +150.

simonk83 · 12-02-10, 08:33 PM

Good luck everyone!

dugdogg · 12-03-10, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Let me start by saying Don't change a thing, you're killing it right now, but here's a little food for thought.

After scouring through your thread here is what I found. Excluding 1st period and team total plays, so just your Over/Under plays, not including tonight, are 30-29-3 for 51%, and your average line is around -107.

If you had changed your unders to 5 instead of 5.5 etc, your record for over/unders would stand at 21-32-9, for 40%. Judging by tonights lines, I would say there is, on average, about a 64 cent difference for taking the extra half point, which would make your average line around +150.

so what does that mean? it doesn't make sense to get the extra value by selling a half goal right?

fjordo · 12-03-10, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

so what does that mean? it doesn't make sense to get the extra value by selling a half goal right?

Last night for example, if you were betting $100 on each over/under, you would have been 1-3 for -$250. If you had sold the extra half point, you would have gone 1-3 for -$104. Thats a difference of $146, seems to make a little sense to me.

Bob Loblaw · 12-03-10, 04:31 PM

Last Post: 1-6 -5.95 units
All Posts: 140-107 +19.57 units

Avs/Canes 1P Under 1.5 +105

Islanders/Rangers 1P Under 1.5 -120

Jackets/Sabres Under 5.5 -130

Nucks/Hawks Over 5.5 -125

Wings/Ducks 1P Under 1.5 -105

dugdogg · 12-03-10, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by fjordo

Last night for example, if you were betting $100 on each over/under, you would have been 1-3 for -$250. If you had sold the extra half point, you would have gone 1-3 for -$104. Thats a difference of $146, seems to make a little sense to me.

lets keep following these numbers day to day if we can...1 day obviously cant indicate a system we should follow

fjordo · 12-03-10, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by dugdogg

lets keep following these numbers day to day if we can...1 day obviously cant indicate a system we should follow

Agreed. I'm not saying the half point will work, and it's not really a system either. Today Bob was 1-1 for -25, and with the half point, 0-1-1 for -104.

I don't want to clog up his thread, so I will let you know weekly how the half point is doing.

Keep doing what you do Bob. BOL.

erraasonia · 12-04-10, 05:08 AM

very good picks, congrats and ty

Bob Loblaw · 12-04-10, 12:20 PM

Last Post: 4-1 +2.80 units
All Posts: 144-108 +22.37 units

Devils Team Total Under 2.5 -140

Sharks/Canadiens 1P Over 1.5 +100

Thrashers/Caps Over 6 -120

Bruins/Leafs Over 5.5 +158

Penguins/Jackets Under 5.5 -120

Wild Team Total Under 2.5 -135

Sabres/Senators 1P Under 1.5 -120

Avs/Lightning Over 6 -105

Canes/Preds Over 5.5 +116

Panthers/Yotes 1P Under 1.5 -125

Blues/Oilers Under 5.5 -115

Wings/Kings 1P Under 1.5 -110

macoeric · 12-04-10, 12:25 PM

gl today

Bob Loblaw · 12-04-10, 03:36 PM

Sickening loss on the Devils play. Usually when I get a loss like that the day spirals out of control in a bad way. Just a warning, tread carefully.

cecil127 · 12-04-10, 03:48 PM

you're right back on track with the over in the sharks/habs 1st.

sit back and make $ Bob, its what you do
and uh, never let em see you sweat

Gokhan · 12-04-10, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by cecil127

you're right back on track with the over in the sharks/habs 1st.

sit back and make $ Bob, its what you do
and uh, never let em see you sweat

wow that's really cool pick. because everyone and their mom have under on this game

simonk83 · 12-04-10, 04:47 PM

Just woke up so missed the first two. On to the rest!

simonk83 · 12-05-10, 03:43 AM

Bob, you're a gun

erraasonia · 12-05-10, 05:14 AM

so many picks!!! I passed, ty

Bob Loblaw · 12-05-10, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by erraasonia

so many picks!!! I passed, ty

I know, I know, my apologies. I know nobody likes a 12 play card but the way I go about it is if I think I have a winner I play it. Picking and choosing never seems to work for me. In fact, out of all those plays yesterday my favorite was the Pens/Jackets Under and that turned out to be my worst pick of the night by far.

Bob Loblaw · 12-05-10, 11:34 AM

Last Post: 7-5 +1.01 units
All Posts: 151-113 +23.38 units

Flyers/Islanders 1P Under 1.5 -110

Senators/Rangers 1P Under 1.5 -120

Senators Team Total Under 2.5 -130

Flames/Hawks Under 5.5 -115

Yotes/Ducks 1P Under 1.5 -115

Blues/Nucks 1P Under 1.5 -115

Grand Salami Under 28 -110