thanks
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No plays for Friday, 1/21/11.Comment -
1/22/11 Plays
Apologies boys. There was one play today. I was busy all day and didn't have time to post. Those of you who have been paying attention caught it.
V2 New York Rangers (B) ML +100 (2 to win 2)
V2 New York Rangers (B) PL -280 (9.24 to win 3.3)Comment -
Ok, there are two V2 plays on Sunday 1/23/11 - BUF and FLA. Both are V2 series.
This is an interesting situation because you are going into a long break for the All Star Game. FLA will finish their series before the Jan 30th game but BUF will not. BUF would not play their C game until more than a week after their B game. Just something to keep in mind.Comment -
1/23/11 Plays
V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) ML -130 (1.3 to win 1)
V2 Buffalo Sabres (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.3 to win 1)
V2 Florida Panthers (A) ML +120 (1 to win 1.2)
V2 Florida Panthers (A) PL -250 (2.5 to win 1)Comment -
New to this thread, Good luck to all. Thanks for the effort you are doing, CapitanComment -
No plays for Monday, 1/24/11.
We're going to finish out this FLA series and then there will be no more plays until 2/1.Comment -
1/25/11 Plays
V2 Florida Panthers (B) ML +136 (1.47 to win 2)
V2 Florida Panthers (B) PL -210 (7.35 to win 3.5)Comment -
el capitan, great thread been following since last year.....not much of a poster, don't like to clog the threads, but any chance u got the breakdowns in units of the v1 ml and pl, and then the separate v2 ml and pl breakdowns?Comment -
Scroll all the way down to the bottom.Comment -
I was wondering that myself ELCaptain. THanks for the spread sheet. :P
Ill give you some points.Comment -
I took your spread sheet and altered it a little bit, taking out all the v2 plays since they are crap anyways lol.
I was thinking of just betting on the C wagers ML and PL when they come up for v1, but I am unsure how many units I should be risking.
based on V1 stats the:
Cbet for ML is 10-4 and up 24 units
Cbet for PL is 4-0 and up 39 units.
If I am skipping A and B does that mean I should be betting to win 10 units on C for PL? That seems a little extreme. Also What do you think my bet should be on ML for for C bet if its 10-4 and up 24 units? I am thinking 6 units or something.
I guess it depends on my overall goal for the system. Do i Want to be up the same # of units as the system is or maybe I should just bet to win 3-5 units on each cbet as a means of flat betting the C bets, so there is less variance.
Hopefully you can help me on a little bit of the math of this.Comment -
posted by JM.Disciple at another place:Well, if you are only going to play the C bets, with a minimum of 66% success rate with minimum odds of 1.33, you can use any value of unit you want. You will make money. I don't think you can compare it on a value basis against betting A/B/C, due to the variable odds on the PL.C bets PL: 4-0 B bets PL: 8-4 A bets PL: 30-12 A bets ML: 19-23 B bets ML 9-13 up until this point C bets 10-4 ML up until this point
Only seems like PL and ML for C bets are doing well. If you combine the ML and PL together:
Abets: +5 units
B bets: -1 unit
C bets: +63 units
seems to me we should only follow C bets and just bet to win 5 units or something. I do not know the exact math on it, but I know I am not going to be betting to win 80 units on C if thats the only bet im placing. Would have to figure out the avg ML and PL in order to figure out the average juice, then decide how many units to bet on C if we are skipping A and B.
Maybe someone who is a little better at Math can look at the spread sheet I posted and figure this out.
There has been 4 PL C bets which total +39 units. I guess bet to win 10 units on C? LOL that seems kinda extreme but may be correct.
C bets for ML are 10-4 and are up 24 units. because the juice is always changing not sure what to bet on here maybe 6 units?
My math seems really poor on this subject.
Please help LOL
One possible method of reducing the risk is to pass on all A's and B's, noting the lost profit that accumulates until a C bet comes up and then you bet to win that lost profit. However, you could be risking 50 units to win 20 units. Currently, there have been 14 winning series (A and B only) since the last C bet, so if you have passed on them and the next series goes to the C bet, you will have to bet to win 15 units. The following week, it might happen again but then you only have to win, say, 2 units. Its very difficult to work it out, I fear.
The big worry with the NHL system is that 2 C bet losses in a season (approx 80 games per version) means failure....
KevComment -
Ya I think im going to flat bet to win 5 units on ML and PL when ever the C bets come up. Idk what Walco is thinking on the other system. Based on the spread sheet walco was saying the A and B bets have been doing really well, but on the spread sheet they are only up like 5 units. Compare to 60 units on C.
I don't understand walco.Comment -
J.M. Your analysis on the "C-bet" Only method is helpful. I appreciate it. I wonder what it would look like if you skipped the A-bets and just played the B's and C's. I am not that good with spreadsheets so I am asking (politely) if you could look at that scenario for this season?
Thanks in advance!Comment -
Nevermind...I did not download your updated spreadsheet before posting my initial reply. Thanks again for the analysis J.M./El Cap and KevComment -
Look at the C bet colume for PL and ML. If you were to bet the same amount of units El captain posted on the spread sheet, then you would be up the same amount of units as his C bet column with a lot less variance. I am not sure how the exact math, but some of them would be pretty big bets. For example the biggest bet I believe was 12.39 at -260 juice. Now my math is not that good, but it looks like
2.6 x 12.39 = 32.21 units to win 12.39. That is a lot of units to invest for 1 bet. However it all depends on your comfort level. For me I would just like to average them out.
I.E on the ML column there are 14 total C bets. Anywhere between 1 unit to 3 units. The average is some where around 3 units. There for If you just bet to win 3 units on each C bet for ML you will be up the same amount of units I believe.
for PL the average unit win is 9.75. Now for me even though the C bet for PL has been undefeated I do not know the win % long term for that. The 4 cbets that were made on PL this year is too small of a sample obviously.
It is all player dependent really. If you want to make the same amount of units as the system for the C bet column then you should wager as El Captain does on his spread sheet or whenever he post his plays. For me personally, risking 32 units on 1 single bet since im skipping A and B is just way too much to risk. I am happy betting to win say 5 units on C bets and 3 units on ML bets.
5 units would be up 20 units for PL this season 4-0
ML betting to win 3 units will roughly be up the same amount as Elcaptain. 25 units.
So if you bet to win 3 units ML and 5 units for PL net profit would be +45 units so far this season.
I hope this helps.Comment -
2/1/11 Plays
V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) ML -114 (1.14 to win 1)
V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.14 to win 1)
V2 Florida Panthers (A) ML +122 (1 to win 1.22)
V2 Florida Panthers (A) PL -230 (2.3 to win 1)
V2 Los Angeles Kings (A) ML +106 (1 to win 1.06)
V2 Los Angeles Kings (A) PL -290 (2.9 to win 1)Comment -
V1 has a better track record for everything.
I'm not aware of any V3.Comment -
2/2/11 Plays
V2 Florida Panthers (B) ML +150 (1.33 to win 2)
V2 Los Angeles Kings (B) ML -136 (2.72 to win 2)
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) ML +110 (1 to win 1.1)
V1 San Jose Sharks (A) PL -260 (2.6 to win 1)Comment -
I know you've probably answered this before, and if you have, tell me to "shut up", but when your playing this system, when do you call your series over. The true v1 play tonight is S. Jose (M/L), you added the P/L to your system. Now if S. Jose wins by 1 goal tonight, the v1 system is a win, but does your system keep going until both win or do you stop here. Also, if S. Jose wins by two goals, is your series over or do you play all three games regardless on wins or losses. I understand how you are betting these games, just don't know when you call your series won or lost, or do we play (A) (B) (C) every series no matter what.Comment -
Do you have a breakdown of how many of the wins and losses were v1 and how many were v2? I assume your totals are a combined total, and your negative net is a result of including v2 games.Comment -
No, here is what I said:
JM NHL v1 System
2010-11 System to date: 34-0
(A) 19-8
(B) 6-2
(C) 2-0
* Note: I did not play the first seven games this season. The (A), (B), and, (C) results reflect games played as of 11/9/10 (play #8). I am not sure of the (A) (B) and (C) of first seven, however, they were all wins.
The system is +34 units, I don't know where you got +5. But the reason I am on here is to find out a little more about this system and see what I'm missing. However, it doesn't appear the v2 bets are doing very well. You can see above, that in the past 27 of 34 series, we only went to (C) bet twice, both were winners. I stressed how good the (A) and (B) were doing, and never said anything that would lead you to believe betting only (C) bets was the way to go. I never said just v1 was better than this system, I just said the v1 bets were more productive this season than the v2. I don't know enough about this system to say that, just want to find out what it is all about.Comment -
Walco the PL and the ML for V1 and V2 are like a combined of 4 different systems. One is strictly V1 PL so the series continues 3 games A B C until they cover by 2. If they lose C it is over. V1 ML is the same way but it is strictly ML A B C until money line covers. If ML covers and PL loses you still treat it as two different systems. I posted a spread sheet on this above. Please look at it and you will see how your first seven games have gone.
Treat PL and ML as two different systems. El Captain has a little differrent system, then betting PL as dogs and ML as favorites. You will see in the spread sheet all the answers to your questions and comments I have made.Comment -
Wallco, the PL actually is a +1.5 line, since you are playing the dog in this game.
IF the visiting team is favored, YOU DON'T PLAY THE -1.5 PL, you throw in one more unit to the ML.
Let's take yesterday as example.
There were 6 picks.
Florida ML
Florida PL +1.5
Kings ML
Kings PL +1.5
Chicaho ML (fav)
Chicago ML (Being the favorite, you usually don't have books offering +1.5 on favs, altough Betcris does at -400 or someting juice. You also don't play -1.5 PL, you just throw another unit to the ML)
There are 6 series to track.
Florida lost by 1 goal. The ML series go to a B play. The PL series Ends with a Victory.
Kings lost by one goal. The ML series go to a B play. The PL series ends with a victory
Chicago won (It doesn't matter by how many goals) The ML series ends with a victory. The PL series ends with a victory.Comment -
The V1 A and B bets are not doing really well at all. They are not doing badly, they are basically just breaking even. The average odds on JM NHL bets are -250. You post above that A and B bets are a combined 25-10.
25-10 at -250 odds gives a profit of 0. This is clearly reflected in Cap's spreadsheet (with a couple extra A/B wins from the 1st 7 games).
I have followed this system for years, and the A and B bets have always made either a small profit, or more regularly, a small loss. Average profit/loss for A bets in particular is always a loss, and this will continue. 19-8 on A bets makes a loss with average odds.
JM disciple you are right in saying that with this system the C bets are where all the money comes from. Given the odds, the A and B bets do not make you the money. Again, this is clearly reflected in Cap's spreadsheet. (btw thanks for posting the spreadsheet cap.) At -250 odds you need to hit better than 70%, which the A and B bets do not do. Particularly the A'sComment -
No plays for Thursday, 2/3/11.Comment
