Betting ML chalk vs -1/2

[magaman]

I have often wondered which offers more value over time... hundreds of plays.

Say you want to wager the chalk... anywhere from -125 to -175. Perhaps it would be more profitable over the long term to wager -1/2 (regulation only) eliminating the possibility of any wins or losses after regulation. But you would also get much better pricing for each and every game wagered. The reason I think this may be of benefit is because once the game goes into OT then SO, it seems to me that the odds are much more even at that point. So the heavy price you pay for the chalk does not give you an advantage at this point of the game.

I'm guessing nobody has loads of data to give a definitive answer, but feel free to offer opinions.

[hotcross]

I like the regulation only lines

Picking spots like anything else

I also like to bet the "game will go to overtime prop" -- odds range roughly +280 to +335...although my record only 1-6 this year with overtime prop

You'll notice some teams (Buffalo this year for example) tend to play Overtime if they don't lose huge in regulation. Other teams rarely go to Overtime which says something about their style of play, aggression, and dominance of their opponents.

SDQL could bear the fruits of the historical lines data you seek, but I'm not knowledgeable about it, plan to learn more about using it.

Also, as for games which DO go to overtime or shootout, I feel like you want to have the moneyline dog, becomes about 50-50 at that point.