Flea Hotel's NHL Legend's Club

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 11:35 AM

Today's play. Will possibly play & post the Jets TT over if Gibson isn't playing for the Ducks, depending on the price. That Capitals o3.5 at +140 is interesting but a pass.

Toronto Maple Leafs OVER 2.5 (-160) 1.6u to win 1u

**weekndornah** · 01-23-17, 11:47 AM

You guys ever thought about parlaying some picks?

Pretty greedy yet tempting idea...

**knicksrulez** · 01-23-17, 11:51 AM

One can hit a big score now and them but over the long term is a bad strategy, gotta think long term in this business..

I learned it the hard way, it's part of my don't do it list, no parlays nor live plays for me

Originally posted by weekndornah

You guys ever thought about parlaying some picks?

Pretty greedy yet tempting idea...

**readytowinem** · 01-23-17, 12:02 PM

Ya parlays suck. And if you do do it should be a fraction of your regular units.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 12:04 PM

Parlays are for action junkies. It's not subjective, it's objective: parlays lower EV and make the book money. It's a mathematical and statistical fact. I used to play them when I first started and got lucky and learned from a cool stats prof in my undergrad why they're not good to play if you want to actually win money. You always hear the stories of the big 6 teamer winning, but never about the 50 that didn't. And sure, there are people who get lucky and win a bunch of them, but there also people who win the lottery or nail the jackpot on the 5$ slot machine. Parlays are for people who are looking for a quick score and don't have a long term vision. If that's ones vision, good luck to them but personally, I want to make money long term, not hit a big parlay and eventually give it all back to the book and then some chasing that loss and that euphoria one gets when they do indeed hit.

Just my two cents. Parlays are for suckers. It's math. Cocaine is a fun as hell for a few hours but not really a good long term happiness strategy.

Originally posted by weekndornah

You guys ever thought about parlaying some picks?

Pretty greedy yet tempting idea...

**slim2014** · 01-23-17, 12:20 PM

Hey Flea I know this is the wrong form but do u still bet NBA totals also ? Any one you really like today?

**readytowinem** · 01-23-17, 12:51 PM

**mohye1980** · 01-23-17, 12:52 PM

Good luck today fellas!!!

**mohye1980** · 01-23-17, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Today's play. Will possibly play & post the Jets TT over if Gibson isn't playing for the Ducks, depending on the price. That Capitals o3.5 at +140 is interesting but a pass.

Toronto Maple Leafs OVER 2.5 (-160) 1.6u to win 1u

Would you suggest playing capitals at over 2.5 -160?

**readytowinem** · 01-23-17, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by mohye1980

Would you suggest playing capitals at over 2.5 -160?

From what he said earlier I would say yes.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 01:36 PM

what book offers that?

Originally posted by mohye1980

Would you suggest playing capitals at over 2.5 -160?

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 01:37 PM

I'll take a look when I get home and see if anything jumps out at me.

Originally posted by slim2014

Hey Flea I know this is the wrong form but do u still bet NBA totals also ? Any one you really like today?

**TaiNiWang** · 01-23-17, 01:40 PM

Flea, been lurking around since mid December or so. Use to play a lot of online poker and did DFS for a short while.

Personally come from a science(bio)/finance background and rely heavily on stats to make a lot of my decisions. Firm believer that how the industry has evolved, stats is almost a must have in gaining an edge. The few who and don't use stats are amazing.

Good luck with that thesis. I'm 100% sure when you show a winning percentage through your model... there will be a couple banks knocking at your door. It will be a sad day when this forum loses you to Bay or Wall St.

**mohye1980** · 01-23-17, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

what book offers that?

My local

**SlickRick1382** · 01-23-17, 01:52 PM

-170 here ...

**Alex Hart** · 01-23-17, 02:02 PM

I'm seeing Capitals at over 2.5 -160 At both 5Dimes and Heritage

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 02:05 PM

I'm probably going to play the Jets TT o2.5 (-125) for 1/4 or 1/2 unit even though Gibson is probably starting. Not sure yet. Still watching Stat dorks give presentations that are like human Xanax. Staying away from the Caps game. It's a close one but you might want to check the scores of their last several games before you pull the trigger.

**jpeterb** · 01-23-17, 02:17 PM

TT looks even better with rules changes for goalie equipment

I am liking your TT even more with the pending equipment rules change for goalies, i think that is totally effective Feb 4th or 5th?

**Catchn_Picks** · 01-23-17, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by Alex Hart

I'm seeing Capitals at over 2.5 -160 At both 5Dimes and Heritage

FWIW...Bovada TT ) 2.5 -165

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 02:27 PM

Feb 4. Bout time, the game would be 100X better if they went way harder on the changes. Bring back the gear sizes from the 80s. Easiest way to increase scoring without any dramatic rule change. I long for an NHL where having a GAA under 3 is impressive, not normal or backup goalie numbers. Imagine if Dominick Hasek could have played in his prime with the ridiculous gear they use now.

Originally posted by jpeterb

I am liking your TT even more with the pending equipment rules change for goalies, i think that is totally effective Feb 4th or 5th?

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 02:29 PM

Cam Ward did just give up 7 to the Pens...

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 02:46 PM

It's a flip for me on that Caps game at -160. I might play it but I'm not posting it. I should make knickz have a seizure and post Washing u2.5 +140.

Anyway, I'm not posting it but the Caps are hot and Carolina are not but I don't want to post two juiced plays, I'd rather play Winnipeg o2.5 at -125 and I just have a weird feeling about that Caps game. I won't get home for a few hours so I can't run it through my model. I might not make up my mind on this play until a few mins before the game. BOL on anyone who plays it. It's just gotta cash 61.6% of the time at -160 to be profitable. Besides, there's women's tennis on TV tonight.

**weekndornah** · 01-23-17, 02:54 PM

I bet Caps O3.5 +145 this morning

GL me lol

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 03:06 PM

I'd prefer that to the juiced o2.5. You only need them to score 4 or more 40.9% of the time to profit. If I do play the Caps TT I'll play the o3.5 for +140 or +145 than paying -160. Washington could easily score 5 or 6. What you don't want is them to get 3. I'd rather they get 0 than 3 when I take those o3.5s.

Originally posted by weekndornah

I bet Caps O3.5 +145 this morning

GL me lol

**QuantumLeap** · 01-23-17, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

I'm probably going to play the Jets TT o2.5 (-125) for 1/4 or 1/2 unit even though Gibson is probably starting. Not sure yet. Still watching Stat dorks give presentations that are like human Xanax. Staying away from the Caps game. It's a close one but you might want to check the scores of their last several games before you pull the trigger.

Thanks for the pick.

I'm seeing that Bernier is in net for the Ducks (against Pavelec for the Jets) and my source has been pretty accurate. Of course, that could all change by game time.

Just a note, I'm going to play Wash TT o 3.5 based upon their recent scoring performance. They are also home for the first time after a 3-game road trip. Just playing it for fun since I have a tendency to play juiced games. I need to start playing more + games.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 03:46 PM

Yeah, my source says Bernier is in too, I'll put something on that game, either the Jets TT or the game total. BOL with the caps pick, I'd say it's a flip at worst and then you got the +40 as a profit margin.

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Thanks for the pick.

I'm seeing that Bernier is in net for the Ducks (against Pavelec for the Jets) and my source has been pretty accurate. Of course, that could all change by game time.

Just a note, I'm going to play Wash TT o 3.5 based upon their recent scoring performance. They are also home for the first time after a 3-game road trip. Just playing it for fun since I have a tendency to play juiced games. I need to start playing more + games.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 04:08 PM

I'm playing the Jets TT o2.5 (-125) and the Caps o2.5 (-160) but they are not official plays. I'll prob put 1/2 unit on each and maybe 1/2 unit on the Caps o3.5. I'm not super confident about any of them but confident enough to bet over 100 Canadian Dollars!

**DU46** · 01-23-17, 04:11 PM

Sticking with just the one official play then today Flea?

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 04:51 PM

Yup. A play a day keeps the hot Asian's at bay. I'll do an occasional super card when one makes sense but the only play I really, really like is the Toronto play. Tomorrow is another day. I'm also so swamped with schoolwork, I had to buy a couple of Adderalls from some dork in my program at school. I have ADD so I get them from my doc but I occasionally need a couple of extras during busy times. Apparently, I was supposed to do a bunch of school work during Xmas and not spend most of the day capping or watching sports. lol.

Originally posted by DU46

Sticking with just the one official play then today Flea?

**DU46** · 01-23-17, 04:54 PM

HAAAA, thanks Flea!

**goldust** · 01-23-17, 05:07 PM

Flea - do you have any idea how often your TT overs coincide with the team winning? So, if a team scores over 2.5, then on average, how often are they winning?

Because I wonder if you can 'double up' your winnings over half the time by taking the TT overs AND the corresponding ML at the same time. Obviously you can lose big on juice long-term with this strategy, but if it hit the vast majority of the time then you wouldn't.

**PokeyAristocrat** · 01-23-17, 05:18 PM

Tried transferring betpoints as a token of my appreciation, Flea. For some reason I couldn't. Anyhow, thanks for your picks, as always.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 05:26 PM

Yeah, I sometimes "double-down". My model gives me leans on sides and if they match with a favorable TT, I typically play it if the implied probability and the price merge. For example, Toronto ML is -140 tonight and I have a projected score of 4-2. So, I don't like the game over since it's too close but I did put a bit down on Toronto ML. I think I put 1.3 units on the TT and 0.7 on the ML. Other situations, like the Jets TT I took the other day, I had a final score of around 8 so I took the game total as well. It depends on a bunch of factors but I do play sides, game totals, props, all kinds of stuff. If I posted everything I played here it would be ridiculous. For the sake of time and ease, I'm trying to keep it to one or two team totals a day. I can handle the swings of being a volume better but I don't want to feel responsible for people who don't exercise prudent and disciplined bankroll management, and I know for a fact that some don't, since I see a lot of posts here and in other threads of people saying "they need a lock" etc. If you bet 1-2% of your bankroll per night, why would you need a lock or a winner? I'm pretty sure most of this site's "regulars" are so in the hole they can't even afford a shovel. I digress.

Originally posted by goldust

Flea - do you have any idea how often your TT overs coincide with the team winning? So, if a team scores over 2.5, then on average, how often are they winning?

Because I wonder if you can 'double up' your winnings over half the time by taking the TT overs AND the corresponding ML at the same time. Obviously you can lose big on juice long-term with this strategy, but if it hit the vast majority of the time then you wouldn't.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-23-17, 05:27 PM

no worries. I still don't really know what betpoints are, and why some people can send me them and others can't. I just use them as thank you points.

Originally posted by PokeyAristocrat

Tried transferring betpoints as a token of my appreciation, Flea. For some reason I couldn't. Anyhow, thanks for your picks, as always.

**JC2008** · 01-23-17, 06:03 PM

I think that Wash/Carolina game is a good OT wager... Carolina is definitely LIVE at +170, they have been crushing it at home up until the Pens crushed them the other night. It might be a better idea to sprinkle on Carolina if Washington scores first since they would be around +300 at least. I think they won 14 out of their last 16 at home before that. I know they're on the road but they usually play Washington tough. Just my opinion though, loving the Leafs team total over. Good luck, everybody!