Flea Hotel's NHL Legend's Club

**Flea Hotel** · 01-20-17, 11:44 PM

Jobs in virtually every sector, including government, to start. Go speak to the Undergrad Academic Adviser for stats in your school.

Originally posted by PokeyAristocrat

Not sure if this is the right place to ask, but as a stats major myself in the second year of my BSc, what would you say some of the benefits of doing a stats major are, Flea?

**Flea Hotel** · 01-20-17, 11:45 PM

Come on Edmonton you dicks!!!!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 12:13 AM

Blah...

0-2, -2.45u

Will be back tomorrow, with revenge on my mind.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 12:19 AM

(YTD, +20.99u)

Only TT Overs tomorrow, though I liked the play on the Nashville under. Shootouts are lame. That Habs game was gross. Tomorrow is another day. The good news is I did save 15% on my car insurance.

**weekndornah** · 01-21-17, 12:22 AM

god damit

fuk me between this and NBA I took a solid pounding

**readytowinem** · 01-21-17, 01:05 AM

**PokeyAristocrat** · 01-21-17, 01:25 AM

Bad luck Flea, just getting ready to crush it tomorrow!

**JoeDeagan** · 01-21-17, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by weekndornah

god damit

fuk me between this and NBA I took a solid pounding

Yeah, establish a unit size bet and stick to it my friend. I took a hit too, trust me. it hasn't ever worked out like planned.

**JoeDeagan** · 01-21-17, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

(YTD, +21.44u)

Only TT Overs tomorrow, though I liked the play on the Nashville under. Shootouts are lame. That Habs game was gross. Tomorrow is another day. The good news is I did save 15% on my car insurance.

Yeah, I was about to say, your unders bets haven't hit. Oh well, let's bounce back tomorrow! Hopefully you find another 2 unit gem again. hehe. Thanks for posting.

**knicksrulez** · 01-21-17, 05:54 AM

C'mon Flea, you're a smart, educated man and still a much stubborn one, you're repeating this script yet again, gets on a winning streak with the TT overs, start betting unders and sides again, loses, back to the TT overs, rinse, repeat

Please stop with unders, I beg you, it makes me wanna cry

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 06:16 AM

lol, fade the unders the knickz.

you can have good BR management and still take a pounding. I lost 2% of my roll, that's a pounding to me. today's nhl card looks fun. just like with hot asians, i don't last long but i come back quick.

Originally posted by knicksrulez

C'mon Flea, you're a smart, educated man and still a much stubborn one, you're repeating this script yet again, gets on a winning streak with the TT overs, start betting unders and sides again, loses, back to the TT overs, rinse, repeat

Please stop with unders, I beg you, it makes me wanna cry

**readytowinem** · 01-21-17, 07:16 AM

**knicksrulez** · 01-21-17, 08:11 AM

Didn't lose much either, guess I'm stubborn myself for tailing the unders. Wasn't watching the game tho, went to bed early, still way up. Let's get it today!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 09:11 AM

Hopefully everyone did as I did and bet lighter so they can go a little harder this weekend. I have to asian tonight so I get tomorrow off to watch Atlanta beat my Packers. Will have my picks in a few minutes after 5Dimes releases their lines. Might have a big card, a 2 unit play, or a small card, all depending on the prices. I might even introduce some half unit plays todays. My gf is out get her hair dyed (what up with Asian girls always dying their hair), which is costing her over 3 units. I told her I'd do it myself for 0.1u and she declined. Go figure. Back with picks before 1PM EST, as per usual.

**thekoreanmang** · 01-21-17, 09:16 AM

S'all good, son. Just get 'em today.

**thekoreanmang** · 01-21-17, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Hopefully everyone did as I did and bet lighter so they can go a little harder this weekend. I have to asian tonight so I get tomorrow off to watch Atlanta beat my Packers. Will have my picks in a few minutes after 5Dimes releases their lines. Might have a big card, a 2 unit play, or a small card, all depending on the prices. I might even introduce some half unit plays todays. My gf is out get her hair dyed (what up with Asian girls always dying their hair), which is costing her over 3 units. I told her I'd do it myself for 0.1u and she declined. Go figure. Back with picks before 1PM EST, as per usual.

At least she's not getting a digital perm or some sh*t. Those are like 5u. Haha. LOL re: doing it for 0.1u. You might have to pay her to let you do it. Haha.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 09:42 AM

They've got that dye shit at Walmart for less than 0.1u, I'd do the labour for free. Jesus, I think I did hear something about a digital perm but assumed it was a joke. FML.

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

At least she's not getting a digital perm or some sh*t. Those are like 5u. Haha. LOL re: doing it for 0.1u. You might have to pay her to let you do it. Haha.

**HoleCamels** · 01-21-17, 09:53 AM

dammit NJ

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 10:06 AM

Today's action. I have two potential Team Total OVERS in the chamber but waiting for 5Dimes. I should open my own book, my TT's would out the second I got the scratch list and probables. Anyway, in case I get killed or something, here are two plays I like and will be playing. The team totals will be added to this box if and when I add them. I'm worried that they will o3.5 one of them or juice them out of play. Moreover, remember you don't have to tail my picks. You can also fade them, pass on them, bet them lightly, bet them harder, use them with your own data and analysis, etc. I guess the only reason to tail me semi-blind is that I'm up 20+ units in 40 days. I'm also no longer responding to any critique of my plays. My model is my model and it's not changing for anyone. Either start your own thread or simply don't tail or fade picks you don't like. Peace and love.
(YTD, +20.99u)

St. Louis Blues vs Winnipeg Jets OVER 5.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Washington Capitals PL -1.5 (+225) 1u to win 2.25u
Washington Capitals OVER 2.5 (-155) 1.55u to win 1u
San Jose Sharks OVER 3.5 (+115) 2u to win 2.3u

**dcsbears** · 01-21-17, 10:09 AM

Shut up if he wants to pick games and unders he dame well can if you don't like don't follow

**Bedard** · 01-21-17, 10:12 AM

Love both of them, gl today!

**readytowinem** · 01-21-17, 10:27 AM

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 10:59 AM

Added two more, that's it for today. Could be a huge night, a devastator, or a fizzle. If I like SJ to score 4 so much you'd put 2 units on it, why not play the PL? Because a) look at the fuking PL price. b) see a.

I don't like grading my picks, I bet all of these at whatever unit size I list. But, if gun to head, I really like that Blues/Jets over. The Caps PL is a simple value pick, I was prepared to pay -165 for SJ o2.5 so o3.5 at +115 is a no-brainer. BOL. Now the only two words that I can't get out of my mind are: digital perm. Fuk.

**goldust** · 01-21-17, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Added two more, that's it for today. Could be a huge night, a devastator, or a fizzle. If I like SJ to score 4 so much you'd put 2 units on it, why not play the PL? Because a) look at the fuking PL price. b) see a.

I don't like grading my picks, I bet all of these at whatever unit size I list. But, if gun to head, I really like that Blues/Jets over. The Caps PL is a simple value pick, I was prepared to pay -165 for SJ o2.5 so o3.5 at +115 is a no-brainer. BOL. Now the only two words that I can't get out of my mind are: digital perm. Fuk.

What's the average score your model has for Washington's game? I wonder if the over 2.5 TT is the safest play out of that game.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 11:19 AM

4.57, so yes, o2.5 should cash. Yes, I would take that over the PL play if I had to. The Caps winning by two has an implied probablity of 40.9% according the my model, and +225 has an implied probability of 30.8%, hence making it a play for me, since it clears my model by 10% (barely). Those squeamish by PL's and -0.5s, etc should just play my Team Total Overs. They're psychologically friendly. It's not like my TT under last night didn't have a chance or anything.

Originally posted by goldust

What's the average score your model has for Washington's game? I wonder if the over 2.5 TT is the safest play out of that game.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 11:21 AM

NJ sucks, I'm never betting them again.

Originally posted by HoleCamels

dammit NJ

**reed_barrington** · 01-21-17, 12:08 PM

Caps on a roll, good picks today- reed

**weekndornah** · 01-21-17, 12:29 PM

Would you say Caps/Stars O5.5 is a good bet to add on?

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 12:41 PM

It's not a bad bet. I'm not playing it but no one could say it's a bad play. Could cash before the second period is over. Just worried about a 3-1 or 4-1 if I'm all about my 2 plays. My models have a lot of 4-0, 4-1, 3-1, 3-0s but some 5-2, 5-3 and 6-3 that all fit my PL play. The game total is a pass for me but I almost put a small bet on it, just have too much other action on that game. BOL

Originally posted by weekndornah

Would you say Caps/Stars O5.5 is a good bet to add on?

**cooperman** · 01-21-17, 12:49 PM

Hit the man hard today. BOL

**Flea Hotel** · 01-21-17, 02:09 PM

I'm tailing all your, ayo, HG and DD's picks so same to you in case I get killed.

Originally posted by cooperman

Hit the man hard today. BOL

**Surfjack** · 01-21-17, 03:14 PM

hey, Flea, I'm new here, but I'm betting on your totals today.
Thanks for the picks, good luck for us all.

**goldust** · 01-21-17, 04:41 PM

Not looking so hot, unfortunately.

I mean...they do play on ice.

**Surfjack** · 01-21-17, 04:53 PM

What are the odds for 3 goals scored in the 3rd?

**goldust** · 01-21-17, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Surfjack

What are the odds for 3 goals scored in the 3rd?

I don't watch much hockey but I'm thinking 30% or so.