Rollin's NHL Top Shelf Plays

[mitch51]

So if I lose with juice (when betting to WIN 1 unit), then I take a blow. If you bet a unit, it really doesn't affect you whether the juice is -180 or -120....you just win a bit less...that's the way I've always looked at it.

But I do sometimes bet like 1.5 units to win .5 units if it's like +1.5 at -330. So in that case if it loses, the juice hurts me.

When you bet to win a unit, you won't be taking as much juice. You'll win less bets...and win more money. For example, I looked at the Thunder yesterday at -400. Did they win? Yes. But betting $400 to win $100? A recipe for disaster, there. Betting to win a unit completely changes the way you look at games.

[Rudeboy]

When you bet to win a unit, you won't be taking as much juice. You'll win less bets...and win more money. For example, I looked at the Thunder yesterday at -400. Did they win? Yes. But betting $400 to win $100? A recipe for disaster, there. Betting to win a unit completely changes the way you look at games.

he said but risking just 1 unit doesnt affect him he'll just win less <<--- thats the mistake many people make, if your in it for the long haul like me and the season is a grind not winning enough to cover the bad days is just as bad

luckily enough i hit +ev near every play

[mitch51]

he said but risking just 1 unit doesnt affect him he'll just win less <<--- thats the mistake many people make, if your in it for the long haul like me and the season is a grind not winning enough to cover the bad days is just as bad

luckily enough i hit +ev near every play

This is what bettors don't understand sometimes. Until you do, you're dead in the water. As long as you can say "I lost that one, but it was at +ev and I'd damn well bet that game again", then it's a good bet no matter what. That's what we aim for. When you say, "WTF was I thinking on that bet?", that's when you know there is a problem.

[Locke]

i agree with what mitch about paying for those juiced up ml favs such as the ducks tonight, or any number of teams each night. a handful of em are going to lose, and so you are not going to win over the long haul as ruder said. paying for them to win a unit or risking a unit is still going to lose you more than you earn in a month...no doubt about it.

that said through my experience, and observing many others, a lot of 'systems' benefit from a flat bet. take ruder's play on the oil last night (not picking on you pal). 3 units at +170 for what at best is a coin toss. why pay the extra units? the dog is not more likely to win on that night, the same way the fav (though more likely at -190) is not going to win enough times. so why play with those prices with that unit win ratio? sure you pick ev+ plays, but you've no doubt noticed on the bad first week of november that +ev doesnt mean anything if your picks aren't winning. the same way picking the juiced lines won't benefit you (tho you may win even less depending on whether you're risking to win1 or 1unit) i prefer to do what most of the 'pros' do and find enough winners at a low cost while keeping a static unit over the course of a season.

im not here to judge anyone on their system or way of betting. im sure we've all found success in our own way.

[RollinDo]

When you bet to win a unit, you won't be taking as much juice. You'll win less bets...and win more money. For example, I looked at the Thunder yesterday at -400. Did they win? Yes. But betting $400 to win $100? A recipe for disaster, there. Betting to win a unit completely changes the way you look at games.

Yeah - maybe I'll start that tomorrow bud...makes a bit more sense to me.
After all, I've lost long term, so I shouldn't be closed out to any strategies that are offered...especially since I know (or at least think) you have won over the long haul.

[mitch51]

That's an awesome comment, Locke. A lot of truth there. The way we bet is quite a bit alike. Your bankroll doesn't shoot up like a rocket this way, however you do go up slowly but surely. Rudy saw some value in that dog. He isn't a straight flat bettor like I am...that's why he's up more units. But your comment is right on the money, Locke.

[RollinDo]

i agree with what mitch about paying for those juiced up ml favs such as the ducks tonight, or any number of teams each night. a handful of em are going to lose, and so you are not going to win over the long haul as ruder said. paying for them to win a unit or risking a unit is still going to lose you more than you earn in a month...no doubt about it.

that said through my experience, and observing many others, a lot of 'systems' benefit from a flat bet. take ruder's play on the oil last night (not picking on you pal). 3 units at +170 for what at best is a coin toss. why pay the extra units? the dog is not more likely to win on that night, the same way the fav (though more likely at -190) is not going to win enough times. so why play with those prices with that unit win ratio? sure you pick ev+ plays, but you've no doubt noticed on the bad first week of november that +ev doesnt mean anything if your picks aren't winning. the same way picking the juiced lines won't benefit you (tho you may win even less depending on whether you're risking to win1 or 1unit) i prefer to do what most of the 'pros' do and find enough winners at a low cost while keeping a static unit over the course of a season.

im not here to judge anyone on their system or way of betting. im sure we've all found success in our own way.

So tonight my reasoning for Ducks -1 is to possibly win more than betting the ML.
AND I'm wagering a tad bit more taking Mitch's advice.

So instead of betting $10 to win $5.50 (or so) on Ducks ML, will bet $11.50 to win about $10. What is anyone's thoughts on that?
And you guys are probably more "serious" bettors than me and probably laughing at the amt I wager.

I can definitely see why to shy away from the ML if I'm betting to WIN $10...I really don't want to lose $19 on a single bet...but I don't mind winning just $5.50 for betting $10 on the ML. The realization though (which doesn't always register) is that I'll need to win another bet for about the same juice to win what I would for betting the -1 if it hits.

[mitch51]

Yeah - maybe I'll start that tomorrow bud...makes a bit more sense to me.
After all, I've lost long term, so I shouldn't be closed out to any strategies that are offered...especially since I know (or at least think) you have won over the long haul.

The year I found out about betting high lines, I had bet 68% winners in MLB into the end of July and lost units. That was a wake-up call.

[mitch51]

So tonight my reasoning for Ducks -1 is to possibly win more than betting the ML.
AND I'm wagering a tad bit more.

So instead of betting $10 to win $5.50 (or so) on Ducks ML, will bet $11.50 to win a shade under $10. What is anyone's thoughts on that?
And you guys are probably more "serious" bettors than me and probably laughing at the amt I wager.

I never laugh at the amount people bet. Ever. But, wouldn't you rather bet $11.50 and win $10? Locke is right, betting high juice is guaranteed to bring you down over time. And the best thing is when you look at a -200 next month and say, "holy shit, I used to bet that"? Rollin, when you really internalize this way of betting, you'll never lose money in the long run. You know the hockey part pretty well.

[RollinDo]

The year I found out about betting high lines, I had bet 68% winners in MLB into the end of July and lost units. That was a wake-up call.

What? I thought you guys were hitting that % and gaining units (???)

[RollinDo]

I never laugh at the amount people bet. Ever. But, wouldn't you rather bet $11.50 and win $10? Locke is right, betting high juice is guaranteed to bring you down over time. And the best thing is when you look at a -200 next month and say, "holy shit, I used to bet that"? Rollin, when you really internalize this way of betting, you'll never lose money in the long run. You know the hockey part pretty well.

Yeah - to be honest, if I strictly bet futures, I'd be up so much. I hit about 2 of every 5 futures bets, and most of those are better than +300. So the net gain on average for every 5 bets (at $10 a piece) is about $30.

I should really consider quitting baseball though - I have lost a lot and it's not so much because of a flawed strategy...until they switch from playing on grass to paper, I won't have it figured out.

[RollinDo]

I never laugh at the amount people bet. Ever. But, wouldn't you rather bet $11.50 and win $10? Locke is right, betting high juice is guaranteed to bring you down over time. And the best thing is when you look at a -200 next month and say, "holy shit, I used to bet that"? Rollin, when you really internalize this way of betting, you'll never lose money in the long run. You know the hockey part pretty well.

Well, that my friend, may be hard to refrain from, but I am willing to give it a try...if anything I will make a 2-team parlay if the vig is that extreme.

[cashmoneyholla]

Rollin how old are you if you don't mind me asking ? I like the conversation in here . A lot of good info being thrown around .

Holla

[mitch51]

What? I thought you guys were hitting that % and gaining units (???)

That was YEARS ago, not recent. We bet a lot of faves after the dogs crapped out, but kept the juice down as much as we could while still betting to win a unit on every bet. Picked up a lot of units bult we still would have preferred to bet dogs. We flat bet dogs, bet one unit to win more than a unit. Dogs are tricky but highly profitable.

[Locke]

i'm on the same pick tonight rollin so hopefully we go up a unit or so together on such a dry night. my bets are always risking 1unit (£75) but when i was wagering $5/10 a game i stuck with the same philosophy even tho the money mattered a little less. if you want your sportsbetting to actually win you some money over a year or more, discipline is the key...lol don't chase. it's part of why i post my picks now, i used to be bad for doubling up on late games

if you go through my 100 or so picks i've posted this season i've never taken anyone above -135 (and i hate paying even that). i'd much rather lose a pick on a heavy favourite to win in reg or -1. even if the fav wins in ot, i'll take that on the chin and be happy with what i paid. if you look at the picks i've lost on regulation bets, about half of em have lost in ot anyway so there's really no point. 3v3 and shootout is exciting, but such a crap shoot. just look at the odds the books give going into overtime. they are almost always a pick em

at least 10-15 -300 nhl favs lose every season so keep that in mind.

[mitch51]

Rollin how old are you if you don't mind me asking ? I like the conversation in here . A lot of good info being thrown around .

Holla

I had quite a lot of respect for you until you made that comment earlier. Don't anymore, though. That was totally uncalled for. Hope you apologize to Ali before she reads it...if you don't, that's cool. Just makes you a turd, is all.

[mitch51]

i'm on the same pick tonight rollin so hopefully we go up a unit or so together on such a dry night. my bets are always risking 1unit (£75) but when i was wagering $5/10 a game i stuck with the same philosophy even tho the money mattered a little less. if you want your sportsbetting to actually win you some money over a year or more, discipline is the key...lol don't chase. it's part of why i post my picks now, i used to be bad for doubling up on late games

if you go through my 100 or so picks i've posted this season i've never taken anyone above -135 (and i hate paying even that). i'd much rather lose a pick on a heavy favourite to win in reg or -1. even if the fav wins in ot, i'll take that on the chin and be happy with what i paid. if you look at the picks i've lost on regulation bets, about half of em have lost in ot anyway so there's really no point. 3v3 and shootout is exciting, but such a crap shoot. just look at the odds the books give going into overtime. they are almost always a pick em

at least 10-15 -300 nhl favs lose every season so keep that in mind.

I'd give you more points for this, Locke, but can only give them once a day. great comment.

[RollinDo]

Rollin how old are you if you don't mind me asking ? I like the conversation in here . A lot of good info being thrown around .

Holla

What the freak does that have to do with anything? I don't expect any valuable nuggets of advice from you if I gave you my age. And I wouldn't set myself up for anything knowing how idiotic and condescending your posts have been lately.

[mitch51]

What the freak does that have to do with anything? I don't expect any valuable nuggets of advice from you if I gave you my age. And I wouldn't set myself up for anything knowing how idiotic and condescending your posts have been lately.

Wow. You're a smart guy.

[RollinDo]

Tues. (11/10) Plays:

Parlay: Carolina TT (U 2.5) / Caps (+1.5) +100
Arizona TT (U 2.5) -170
Calg-FL (U 5.5) 1.5 units
Ott-Nash (U 5.5) -125
Wash - Det (U 1.5 - 1P) -140
Winn - Minn (U 5) +110
Preds +1.5 (Parlay with other sports)
Ott (+1) -112

[mitch51]

Leans until I can get in to bet (bookie gliches)

STL
NYR
WAS
MIN
LA


BBL

Ali

[RollinDo]

Leans until I can get in to bet (bookie gliches)

STL
NYR
WAS
MIN
LA


BBL

Ali

Yep - I like all those sides - maybe not Blues at that price (a little high especially how well NJ has played lately)...I like Preds too.

[RedReddington]

Good luck

[MickeyMan]

BOL tonight Rollin. Especially on that preds +1.5 -525.

Ballsy pick I like it when you go out on a limb.

[mitch51]

BOL tonight Rollin. Especially on that preds +1.5 -525.

Ballsy pick I like it when you go out on a limb.

I believe he said he parlayed that. Dickwad.

[mitch51]

Done

[MickeyMan]

I believe he said he parlayed that. Dickwad.

Does it matter mitchy? It's -525 in the nhl, it's rediculous.

Mitchy get back into the kitchen and finish cleaning those dishes, leave the gambling talk to your girlfriend Ali. And fold her clothes too the house is a mess mitchy.

[mitch51]

Does it matter mitchy? It's -525 in the nhl, it's rediculous.

Mitchy get back into the kitchen and finish cleaning those dishes, leave the gambling talk to your girlfriend Ali. And fold her clothes too the house is a mess mitchy.

Of course it matters if it's in a parlay you dumb ass. You have no idea what the line of the parlay is. Jesus, have you ever placed a bet before? And, how is your boyfriend doing? I'd love to see some of his picks.

[mitch51]

Done

[MickeyMan]

Of course it matters if it's in a parlay you dumb ass. You have no idea what the line of the parlay is. Jesus, have you ever placed a bet before? And, how is your boyfriend doing? I'd love to see some of his picks.

If you can't see why laying -525 in an nhl game whether in a parlay or not is a bad idea then I cannot help you. Good teams lose by 2+ all the time especially with empty net opportunities at the end. It's not like you are getting the patriots at home at that price it's the penetrating NHL. It doesn't matter if it's in a parlay.

Now get back in the kitchen Mitchy and finish cleaning or Ali is not going to let you eat her out tonight.

[RollinDo]

Well my big play tonight in jeopardy and not even halfway through game.
Under 5.5 in Panthers game...actually bet twice on it.

[RollinDo]

If you can't see why laying -525 in an nhl game whether in a parlay or not is a bad idea then I cannot help you. Good teams lose by 2+ all the time especially with empty net opportunities at the end. It's not like you are getting the patriots at home at that price it's the penetrating NHL. It doesn't matter if it's in a parlay.

Now get back in the kitchen Mitchy and finish cleaning or Ali is not going to let you eat her out tonight.

Funny...I don't recall any of us asking for your help.
We just wanted you to start up your new thread.

[MickeyMan]

Funny...I don't recall any of us asking for your help.
We just wanted you to start up your new thread.

I just ask that you and Mitch don't clog up this thread with your -525 hockey parlays and Mitch's constant whining. It's hard to sift through both of your guys' bullshit to find my girl Ali's plays.

To be honest it might be best if you and Mitch just left this thread and let Ali do her thing.

Just something to think about Rollin.

[RollinDo]

I just ask that you and Mitch don't clog up this thread with your -525 hockey parlays and Mitch's constant whining. It's hard to sift through both of your guys' bullshit to find my girl Ali's plays.

To be honest it might be best if you and Mitch just left this thread and let Ali do her thing.

Just something to think about Rollin.

So the alternative would be to clutter your thread...which I'd feel like I'm imposing.
And by the way, this is the thread I started if you haven't noticed Mousy.

And yes - Ali and Mitch will always be welcome here.
If memory serves me correctly you wrote that you were NOT going to post in my thread...well I should have known better.

[MickeyMan]

So the alternative would be to clutter your thread...which I'd feel like I'm imposing.
And by the way, this is the thread I started if you haven't noticed Mousy.

You are welcome in my thread anytime Rollin