NHL Super Road Dog Chase

[Trivial]

Thanks so much. Very much appreciate the replies. Good luck to everyone.

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 17 Sat.

Chase #8:
(A) CAR +1.5 1.63

[werky]

wouldn't Buffalo be the play. They have the highest moneyline dog odds? Maybe I have it wrong

[skyscrapers]

wouldn't Buffalo be the play. They have the highest moneyline dog odds? Maybe I have it wrong

We only play teams with ML odds 2.00-2.99
BUF is way outside at 3.42

[werky]

Thank you for the reply. Good luck

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 18 Sun.

Chase #8:
(B) NJ +1.5 1.64

[skyscrapers]

Chase #8:
(B) NJ +1.5 1.64 - WIN +1u

Total: (8-0) +8u
(A) 6-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0

[skyscrapers]

If SJ manages to stay above 2.00 at Pinny then play SJ +1.5 as an A bet tonight.

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 20 Tue.

Chase#9:
(A) FLA +1.5 1.48
Sorry game started. Try live betting.

[skyscrapers]

Chase #9:
(A) FLA +1.5 1.48 - WIN +1u

Total: (9-0) +9u
(A) 7-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 21 Wed.

Chase #10:
(A) PHI +1.5 1.49

[skyscrapers]

As long as every game we play go to OT would be great!!!

Chase #10:
(A) PHI +1.5 1.49 - WIN +1u

Total: (10-0) +10u
(A) 8-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0

[habitualwinning]

Are we howling with the Coyotes tonight or what? Sitting at 2.92 right now. How close to game time do you wait to make the call to see if line bumps?

[Trivial]

Are we howling with the Coyotes tonight or what? Sitting at 2.92 right now. How close to game time do you wait to make the call to see if line bumps?

My books closes about a minute earlier than they should, so I am booking Arizona in about 3 mins.

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 22 Thu.

Chase #11:
(A) ARI +1.5 1.64

[Trivial]

Oct. 22 Thu.

Chase #11:
(A) ARI +1.5 1.64

GL all !

[skyscrapers]

My books closes about a minute earlier than they should, so I am booking Arizona in about 3 mins.

That sucks. Almost all books close 5min after the hour or bottom of hour. For example 4:05 or 8:35

[Trivial]

That sucks. Almost all books close 5min after the hour or bottom of hour. For example 4:05 or 8:35

Ya. But I get great puckline odds at this one so I put up with it.

Got 1.69 last night for example.

[Trivial]

So barely - but I guess Carolina is the play today ?

[habitualwinning]

I just realized a flaw in this model or at least something that needs to be addressed by you guys. I was looking at the hockey lines and between the two possible plays for tonight, Boston or Carolina, they are separated by .03 right now, 2.55 to 2.58 but one of the games already started. So what happens if the line for the later game drops below the line for the game that already started? That would mean that theoretically Boston should have been the play and it's already started. Not saying that will happen tonight but it's possible and needs to be addressed for future possible occurrences.

[skyscrapers]

I just realized a flaw in this model or at least something that needs to be addressed by you guys. I was looking at the hockey lines and between the two possible plays for tonight, Boston or Carolina, they are separated by .03 right now, 2.55 to 2.58 but one of the games already started. So what happens if the line for the later game drops below the line for the game that already started? That would mean that theoretically Boston should have been the play and it's already started. Not saying that will happen tonight but it's possible and needs to be addressed for future possible occurrences.

This actually happens occasionally as in my MLB system as well. If the later game was the biggest dog but later becomes not then we simply don't play anything that day. No play.

The following case also happens but with less frequency. If an earlier game was the biggest dog and we played it but somehow a later game then becomes the biggest dog then the first game we played becomes unofficial. If we win great we won some bonus money but if we lose then we just have to eat it.

For example if CAR becomes lower than BOS by gametime then we have no play today.

[Trivial]

Thanks Sky. Didn't realize that.

Good to know. Still learning.

[Trivial]

What happens if 2 are identical?

[skyscrapers]

What happens if 2 are identical?

Then I look at the PL to see which 2 are greater. If still tied I look at lines from 5Dimes which in my opinion is the 2nd sharpest book. Of course Pinny is #1 and my reference book. If still tied then I don't know until that time comes. Fortunately it hasn't happened to me yet so far

[skyscrapers]

Oct. 23 Fri.

Chase #11:
(B) CAR +1.5 1.54

Couldn't wait any longer

[habitualwinning]

This actually happens occasionally as in my MLB system as well. If the later game was the biggest dog but later becomes not then we simply don't play anything that day. No play.

The following case also happens but with less frequency. If an earlier game was the biggest dog and we played it but somehow a later game then becomes the biggest dog then the first game we played becomes unofficial. If we win great we won some bonus money but if we lose then we just have to eat it.

For example if CAR becomes lower than BOS by gametime then we have no play today.

Thanks for the explanation sky, that makes sense. I'm glad you thought all that through it makes me feel better about tailing the system now. BOL everyone.

[Trivial]

Then I look at the PL to see which 2 are greater. If still tied I look at lines from 5Dimes which in my opinion is the 2nd sharpest book. Of course Pinny is #1 and my reference book. If still tied then I don't know until that time comes. Fortunately it hasn't happened to me yet so far

Cool. When you say greater PL - if you have -190 and -200 which one ?

Thanks.

[oilcountry99]

Skyscrapers

Nice work here so far this season! Historically what are the average +1.5 PL of this system? Thanks for your help and continued success to you moving forward.

[mrk77]

Hey Everyone, I'm just trying to understand this a little more. If we're looking at today's game, if I'm understanding right Toronto +1.5 would be the play if the line doesn't drop below +190, right?

[skyscrapers]

Trivial: By greater PL I mean the odds closer to the dog side. That means -190 in your example

OilCountry: I don't have the exact figures for one-goal games but the parity in the NHL is so high I would guess 20-25% of games are within one goal.

mrk77: As of right now CAR +1.5 would be the play again. However if TOR is to drop below +200 (or 3.00 I like using decimals) but a bigger dog than CAR, then TOR +1.5 is the play

[habitualwinning]

Hey Everyone, I'm just trying to understand this a little more. If we're looking at today's game, if I'm understanding right Toronto +1.5 would be the play if the line doesn't drop below +190, right?

Toronto would be the play only if they drop below +199. It has to be the road team between +100 and +199 with the highest odds and then play them on the +1.5 puckline. Right now Toronto is +205, which is outside of the parameters. Carolina is currently the play at +175. He uses Pinnacle for the odds so all other books are irrelevant. Things could change between now and game time though so it's too early to call the play for today right now.

[habitualwinning]

Sky what's the deal with playing the same team on consecutive plays and consecutive nights. Unless Toronto drops some, it's looking like another Hurricane night. If that happens the play very well theoretically could win but I would be somewhat hesitant about laying a C bet on the same team, playing back to back nights on the road. Much less with their backup in net tonight. Logic would dictate that's not a strong spot to be in. Has this ever occurred before or been addressed?

[skyscrapers]

Sky what's the deal with playing the same team on consecutive plays and consecutive nights. Unless Toronto drops some, it's looking like another Hurricane night. If that happens the play very well theoretically could win but I would be somewhat hesitant about laying a C bet on the same team, playing back to back nights on the road. Much less with their backup in net tonight. Logic would dictate that's not a strong spot to be in. Has this ever occurred before or been addressed?

That's what's good about chase systems. We pay absolutely no attention to any capping at all. The only thing that matters are the lines. All the backrests are done on lines alone.

CAR put 40 shots on net yesterday and can't solve Quick. Tonight Eddie Lack is in net but he's no slouch. I'm from Vancouver and saw Eddie play for the Canucks for a couple season and he was very good. Even better than Luongo when they both were here. Sharks offense is not really lighting it up as well after Logan Couture went down.

If it's TOR tonight I'll be scared too. Price is back in net and no team has beaten the Habs yet so far.

GL everyone...

[oilcountry99]

Trivial: By greater PL I mean the odds closer to the dog side. That means -190 in your example

OilCountry: I don't have the exact figures for one-goal games but the parity in the NHL is so high I would guess 20-25% of games are within one goal.

mrk77: As of right now CAR +1.5 would be the play again. However if TOR is to drop below +200 (or 3.00 I like using decimals) but a bigger dog than CAR, then TOR +1.5 is the play

Sorry, I meant what were the average odds of the +1.5 PL

[skyscrapers]

Sorry, I meant what were the average odds of the +1.5 PL

It'll range from 1.35 to 1.70 with the average around the middle.