NHL Super Road Dog Chase

skyscrapers · 10-24-15, 08:53 PM

Oct. 24 Sat.

Chase #11:
(C) CAR +1.5 1.60

Let's go Canes!!!

f99z · 10-24-15, 11:50 PM

What would you put as 1 unit on a 600 dollar bankroll using this system? If I pick 3 USD as 1 unit, then I'll end up with C-bets in the 50-70 USD area which seems very high to me.

skyscrapers · 10-25-15, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by f99z

What would you put as 1 unit on a 600 dollar bankroll using this system? If I pick 3 USD as 1 unit, then I'll end up with C-bets in the 50-70 USD area which seems very high to me.

High risk high reward. I play $100/unit.
Canes are just a bad team...

habitualwinning · 10-25-15, 03:33 AM

I know this is easy to say after a loss but personally, I'm not going to book any plays in this system going forward when the play is an B or C bet on the same team playing back to back nights. It's already hard enough to win or in our case keep a game within 1 goal on the road as it is. Add to that the fatigue factor from playing back to back nights and the high probability of the backup tender playing the second game of the back to back and it doesn't bode well. I'm guessing over the course of an entire season, this will only happen a handful of times at most where the system play would end up being the same team on back to back nights. However, I would venture to guess that over that same course any play fitting within the parameters I defined would be a net loser. Let's say theoretically that scenario happens 5 times in a season, I would venture to guess that the particular play mentioned would lose 3 or 4 out of those 5 times. If those were C bets, then that would amount to a significant loss that we wouldn't have had to sustain had we heeded the small tweak. Just my personal analysis and preference, but I fail to see how that small adjustment wouldn't make this system that much stronger than it already is. Any critique or refutation to my theory is more than welcome. I'm just trying to maximize wins and protect my money as much as possible over the long run and I would rather sit out one day and wait, then repeat what happened the last 2 days here going forward in any similar spots.

Trivial · 10-25-15, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Trivial: By greater PL I mean the odds closer to the dog side. That means -190 in your example

Thanks so very much.

oilcountry99 · 10-25-15, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by habitualwinning

I know this is easy to say after a loss but personally, I'm not going to book any plays in this system going forward when the play is an B or C bet on the same team playing back to back nights. It's already hard enough to win or in our case keep a game within 1 goal on the road as it is. Add to that the fatigue factor from playing back to back nights and the high probability of the backup tender playing the second game of the back to back and it doesn't bode well. I'm guessing over the course of an entire season, this will only happen a handful of times at most where the system play would end up being the same team on back to back nights. However, I would venture to guess that over that same course any play fitting within the parameters I defined would be a net loser. Let's say theoretically that scenario happens 5 times in a season, I would venture to guess that the particular play mentioned would lose 3 or 4 out of those 5 times. If those were C bets, then that would amount to a significant loss that we wouldn't have had to sustain had we heeded the small tweak. Just my personal analysis and preference, but I fail to see how that small adjustment wouldn't make this system that much stronger than it already is. Any critique or refutation to my theory is more than welcome. I'm just trying to maximize wins and protect my money as much as possible over the long run and I would rather sit out one day and wait, then repeat what happened the last 2 days here going forward in any similar spots.

Good thought here.

skyscrapers · 10-25-15, 04:17 PM

Chase #11:
(C) CAR +1.5 1.60 - LOSS -18.6u

Total: (10-1) -8.6u
(A) 8-3
(B) 1-2
(C) 1-1

skyscrapers · 10-25-15, 04:21 PM

For tonight MIN & CGY are in a dead heat at the moment both ML & PL at Pinny & at 5D.
Definitely a gametime decision.

skyscrapers · 10-25-15, 05:55 PM

Oct. 25 Sun.

Chase #12:
(A) CGY +1.5 1.42

Trivial · 10-25-15, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Oct. 25 Sun.

Chase #12:
(A) CGY +1.5 1.42

How did you decide ?

skyscrapers · 10-25-15, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

How did you decide ?

Although the ML is identical the PL is 1.43 CGY vs 1.42 MIN so CGY is the larger dog by a penny.

Trivial · 10-25-15, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Although the ML is identical the PL is 1.43 CGY vs 1.42 MIN so CGY is the larger dog by a penny.

Got it. Thanks.

skyscrapers · 10-26-15, 05:31 PM

Oct. 26 Mon.

Chase #12:
(B) CGY +1.5 1.59

splitH · 10-27-15, 04:53 PM

Arizona on 10/27?

skyscrapers · 10-27-15, 05:51 PM

Oct. 27 Tue.

Chase #12:
(C) ARI +1.5 1.59

Back to back C bets. Hope the Yotes are howling tonight.
GL...

habitualwinning · 10-27-15, 06:08 PM

Sky, what's the most consecutive losses this NHL system has sustained previously?

splitH · 10-27-15, 07:55 PM

not good

skyscrapers · 10-27-15, 07:57 PM

I have the numbers on my computer but I'm on the road until the weekend. I can't remember consecutive back to back C bet losses at all. Looking like we'll have consecutive losses if Yotes don't get going soon. Just a horrible stretch right now. Very very bad...

habitualwinning · 10-27-15, 08:26 PM

If two consecutive chases is the worst losing streak for this system over several seasons, then that's really good IMO. The system is strong I think it just ran into a rough patch playing on bad teams when they were slumping, just an anomaly. It'll bounce back.

skyscrapers · 10-27-15, 08:43 PM

It is a rough stretch indeed. If it had happened in the 2nd half of the season it isn't as bad but to have it in the first month of the season is devastating. Luckily we'll have a lot of time to make it up. It takes 6 series losses to have a losing season so we'll just keep chugging along. There were streaks where the system went 2+ months without a series loss so we'll look forward for that. I'm just going to count tonight's play as loss. Sorry guys...

Chase #12:
(C) ARI +1.5 1.59 - LOSS -23.79u

Total: (10-2) -32.39u
(A) 8-4
(B) 1-3
(C) 1-2

skyscrapers · 10-28-15, 06:07 PM

Oct. 28 Wed.

Chase #13:
(A) CGY +1.5 1.45

skyscrapers · 10-28-15, 09:41 PM

Finally a win for fuk's sake!!

Chase #13:
(A) CGY +1.5 1.45 - WIN +1.0u

Total: (11-2) -31.39u
(A) 9-4
(B) 1-3
(C) 1-2

skyscrapers · 10-29-15, 06:28 PM

Oct. 29 Thu.

Chase #14:
(A) COL +1.5 1.62

skyscrapers · 10-29-15, 10:15 PM

Chase #14:
(A) COL +1.5 1.62 - WIN +1.0u

Total: (12-2) -30.39u
(A) 10-4
(B) 1-3
(C) 1-2

skyscrapers · 10-30-15, 05:30 PM

Oct. 30 Fri.

Chase #15:
(A) TOR +1.5 1.64

skyscrapers · 10-31-15, 05:46 PM

Oct. 31 Sat.

Chase #15:
(B) BOS +1.5 1.51

skyscrapers · 10-31-15, 08:37 PM

Chase #15:
(B) BOS +1.5 1.51 - WIN +1.0u

Total: (13-2) -29.39u
(A) 10-5
(B) 2-3
(C) 1-2

skyscrapers · 11-01-15, 06:56 PM

Nov. 01 Sun.

Chase #16:
(A) BUF +1.5 1.59

skyscrapers · 11-01-15, 09:52 PM

Chase #16:
(A) BUF +1.5 1.59 - WIN +1.0u

Total: (14-2) -28.39u
(A) 11-5
(B) 2-3
(C) 1-2

SBRMAN23 · 11-01-15, 09:59 PM

nice hit i took em live to start 3rd ml thou i needed it after PL Tampa

L-Ice Hockey - BUFFALO SABRES (|NEW YORK ISLANDERS| Vs |BUFFALO SABRES|) +1008for Game

skyscrapers · 11-02-15, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by SBRMAN23

nice hit i took em live to start 3rd ml thou i needed it after PL Tampa

L-Ice Hockey - BUFFALO SABRES (|NEW YORK ISLANDERS| Vs |BUFFALO SABRES|) +1008for Game

Nice hit there!!!

skyscrapers · 11-02-15, 04:17 PM

Nov. 02 Mon.

Chase #17:
(A) PHI +1.5 1.46

skyscrapers · 11-03-15, 10:32 PM

Nov. 03 Tue.

Chase #17:
(B) CBJ +1.5 1.51

skyscrapers · 11-04-15, 01:05 AM

Chase #17:
(B) CBJ +1.5 1.51 - WIN +1.0u

Total: (15-2) -27.39u
(A) 11-6
(B) 3-3
(C) 1-2

skyscrapers · 11-04-15, 07:44 PM

Nov. 04 Wed.

Chase #18:
(A) STL +1.5 1.41