2013-14 nhl home chase thread!

darrendice · 10-03-13, 04:37 PM

No filter with odds like the on3 / the rizz system?

jonny2k4 · 10-03-13, 05:29 PM

No filters, just the money risk management, this way a C bet loss won't
Kill us. It will be nice to win a high percentage of games on the B
Bets. There is enough plays through out the season to not worry
about winning only half units on a and c bets. What do u think?

FrozenMAN · 10-03-13, 07:22 PM

I am thinking of just doing a Chase with the Hawks...watch them all the time as the home town team and I just can't see them going on a a losing streak over 3 games a maximum, I feel like it would be productive though lots of moneylines would be rather inflated and you'd pay quite a bit of juice....Thoughts everyone

darrendice · 10-03-13, 07:27 PM

The -145 filter did work to a degree. I'll be interested to see how this goes. I'm on blues, bruins and penguins... Not sharks...
one thing worth considering though is if the line is -200 then PL or -1 as the bet?

darrendice · 10-03-13, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by FrozenMAN

I am thinking of just doing a Chase with the Hawks...watch them all the time as the home town team and I just can't see them going on a a losing streak over 3 games a maximum, I feel like it would be productive though lots of moneylines would be rather inflated and you'd pay quite a bit of juice....Thoughts everyone

Backtest that one using the NHL home teams web pages and past fixtures / seasons I had a look at Detroit for a similar plan. You're in effect applying a favourite filter to the home stand chase as the lines will usually be -145 or better. Not many bets a season though with just one team I think they've got three 3 game home stands this season...

jonny2k4 · 10-04-13, 12:20 AM

Great opening night fellas! All (A) Bets WIN! I'll figure out the Units up tomorrow when I have more time if everyone followed the rules it should be around 2+ Units. Note we can follow the Blues again on another A Bet on their next game. I'll check for the plays for tomorrow if any. I was thinking about filters for the month of March and April with teams under .500 at home and out of the playoff race. Probably best to stay away from those chases. More on that as we progress. I'm not 100% just checked units up I believe it's around +2.07.

Boston WIN
San Jose WIN
Pittsburgh WIN
St. Louis WIN

Record 4-0 (Units +2.07)

A Bets 4-0
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

jonny2k4 · 10-04-13, 03:58 PM

Next Plays

Oct. 5th Blues (4) A Bet
Oct. 6th Flames (3) A Bet

Number in parentheses is the games in home stand.

Current Record:

Record 4-0 (Units +2.07)

A Bets 4-0
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

No open Series.

J.M. Disciple · 10-04-13, 05:53 PM

Was there any back testing done on this? I see that on3 and rizz were mentioned in this and use filters. Was that for Hockey or referring to their MLB threads? I would be interested in following if someone can provide back test results or some type of record that proves this system profitable. Anyone have past link to this system? I am sure others have thought of this. I am also sure it will be extremely high juice as home team is always inflated.

therizz · 10-04-13, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Was there any back testing done on this? I see that on3 and rizz were mentioned in this and use filters. Was that for Hockey or referring to their MLB threads? I would be interested in following if someone can provide back test results or some type of record that proves this system profitable. Anyone have past link to this system? I am sure others have thought of this. I am also sure it will be extremely high juice as home team is always inflated.

This was backtested using -145 as the opening game line by me a few years ago. Some have modified it to a -130 level for the first game and then do the double dip if there are 3 or more games left in the series. I have liked this better than baseball as there are usually less simultaneous plays as the season gets going which keeps the lines from getting too crazy. ***sorry Jonny just realized you are doing this for all homestands and not just the favorites, didn't mean to distract. Feel free to PM me JMD**

J.M. Disciple · 10-05-13, 03:01 AM

Why do you have STL as a play when they won their first home game? I believe this system is only based on first three home games and not double dipping.

jonny2k4 · 10-05-13, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Why do you have STL as a play when they won their first home game? I believe this system is only based on first three home games and not double dipping.

I really like the double dip here, St. Louis is a very strong team this year. I played the game tonight only risking one unit. Win will only be a 1/2 unit if they do win. I'm basing this system on a money management system. I played this system last year without a money management system. It had a couple of losses maybe two or three, It profited small. If I remember correctly Blues lost three straight at home in febuary and I think Oilers. I want to use this year as a test year adding some filters the following year. I'm open to ideas, maybe risking different unit sizes on stronger and weaker plays. I don't like the puck line on heavy favorites, I rather just risk half a unit on it.

jonny2k4 · 10-05-13, 12:54 PM

(Tonight) Oct. 5th Blues (4) A Bet

(Tomorrow) Oct. 6th Flames (3) A Bet

Number in parentheses is the games in home stand.

Current Record:

Record 4-0 (Units +2.07)

A Bets 4-0
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

No open Series.

Notes: I'll be looking into filters for home teams records for the later months.

jonny2k4 · 10-05-13, 09:32 PM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

BLUES WIN

Record 5-0 (Units +2.57)

A Bets 5-0
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

Next Play:
Flames 10/6

Blues still have three more home games i'll be playing them again. This will be the final chase of the homestand, let's get it!

J.M. Disciple · 10-05-13, 09:58 PM

Are you already playing JM series? Cashed both B bets today ignoring the first 3 game filter of the season. PHO is pending still for their A bet.

J.M. Disciple · 10-05-13, 10:14 PM

Couple of questions that I am not sure about even with the back tested system. Hopefully rizz or on3 can stop by and answer these.

1) If a team has a 5 game road trip and we win our first (a) bet, we double dip on the 2nd one and win another (a) bet, can we triple dip since its a 5 game home stand as long as its -130 or above?

2) If a team has a 4 game home stand and the first game for example CAL tomorrow is underdog so does not qualify for original system, but on the 2nd game at home if they are -150 for example, can we start the system there since they still have 3 game home stand left?

Thank You
Austin

jonny2k4 · 10-05-13, 10:51 PM

No I wanted to wait till it gets official. I'm playing baseball playoffs, got oakland on a b bet tonight sweating out this game. won red sox on 1st and second game. did same with dodgers.. one game one lost on the double dip will b bet dodgers tomorrow and b bet on pitt, i missed game two of the series, pissed. Think they can with one of two at home... but this is hockey let's score!

figue · 10-05-13, 11:14 PM

jonny2k4 · 10-06-13, 09:51 AM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

10/6 FLAMES (A) BET

Record 5-0 (Units +2.57)

A Bets 5-0
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

jonny2k4 · 10-07-13, 12:35 AM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

10/6 FLAMES (A) BET LOSS 5-4 OT

Took our first A loss tonight, was a tuff loss had a two goal third period lead blew it, tied it and lost in OT. Was hoping to get that one was first underdog we played in the system. I'm still confident with the series as the Flames have been putting pucks in the net. Onto the B bet on Oct. 9th vs Montreal.

Record 5-0 (Units +2.57)

A Bets 5-1
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

Next Plays:

(10/8 Nashville vs Wild A BET (5 GAME HOME STAND)
(10/8 Canucks vs Devils A BET (3 GAME HOME STAND)
(10/9 Blues vs Blackhawks A BET (3 games left on home stand)
(10/9 Flames vs Montreal open series B BET -1.00)

jonny2k4 · 10-08-13, 10:39 AM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

Record 5-0 (Units +2.57)

A Bets 5-1
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

10/8
NASHVILLE (A) BET
CANUCKS (A) BET

NEXT PLAYS

10/9 BLUES (A) BET
10/9 FLAMES (B) BET

J.M. Disciple · 10-08-13, 05:50 PM

If your going to chase every home game, should consider chasing dogs on PL. Would be undefeated right now. That or just apply the filters. There is a reason why it was back tested and filters were established.

jonny2k4 · 10-08-13, 06:21 PM

Puck lines you lay way too much. But your right would be undefeated. Like to see a backtest on fading
Road teams going away 3 straight games.

J.M. Disciple · 10-08-13, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by jonny2k4

Puck lines you lay way too much. But your right would be undefeated. Like to see a backtest on fading
Road teams going away 3 straight games.

There was a MLB system seemed to do well in a four game chase taking RL. Would risk 1-2-4-8 in that order. Also +odds (almost always). It was crushing regular system, but of course win rate was only like 40%. Worked in pretty well overall for most of the season I think. Maybe consider doing something similar with PL or ML for dogs. Risk 1 2 3. etc.

jonny2k4 · 10-09-13, 12:40 AM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

10/8
NASHVILLE (A) BET WIN
CANUCKS (A) BET WIN

Record 7-0 (Units +3.67)

A Bets 7-1
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

NEXT PLAYS

10/9 BLUES (A) BET
10/9 FLAMES (B) BET

J.M. Disciple · 10-09-13, 02:15 AM

Are you tripple dipping with STL? I am going to stick to the filter, so unless STL hits -130 I am not going to play them.

I will be avoiding cal as I applied the filter on the A bet, which you might want to keep a note on. So far non filtered plays are 1-1. Also Montreal is a JM [A] BET, not sure if you are playing JM this early in the season or not though.

jonny2k4 · 10-09-13, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

If your going to chase every home game, should consider chasing dogs on PL. Would be undefeated right now. That or just apply the filters. There is a reason why it was back tested and filters were established.

the blues won 7-0 against flordia, was the double dip though.

jonny2k4 · 10-09-13, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Are you tripple dipping with STL? I am going to stick to the filter, so unless STL hits -130 I am not going to play them.

I will be avoiding cal as I applied the filter on the A bet, which you might want to keep a note on. So far non filtered plays are 1-1. Also Montreal is a JM [A] BET, not sure if you are playing JM this early in the season or not though.

i'm sticking with both bets tonight. Blues have three more games at home don't see them losing all three. Staying on board with the flames too even though if they lose tonight c bet will be another good game against the devil who have been losing in OT. I think and hope flames pull it out tonight.

jonny2k4 · 10-09-13, 10:38 AM

2013-14 NHL HOME CHASE

10/9 BLUES (A) BET
10/9 FLAMES (B) BET

Record 7-0 (Units +3.67)

A Bets 7-1
B Bets 0-0
C Bets 0-0

NEXT PLAYS
10/10 DUCKS (5) (A) BET
10/10 TAMPA BAY (7) (A) BET
10/10 CAPITALS (5) (A) BET

Alot of good chances for more than one play in each series in tomorrow night's openers.

on3 · 10-09-13, 12:29 PM

checking in

USAF K9 · 10-09-13, 01:28 PM

So u bet 1 unit on A

how many on B and C ????

jonny2k4 · 10-09-13, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by USAF K9

So u bet 1 unit on A

how many on B and C ????

I'm only risking one Unit on A bets, so profits are less than one unit. On last night's plays i upped my unit size to cover baseball losses which panned out in my favor. Tonight we have a B bet on Flames which are underdog so where risking less than a unit win to win one unit plus the unit loss from A Bet.

If I knew A Bets would go 7-1 I would of played to win a unit on every bet, lol.

there are over 165 series this year plus the double dips would get us over 200 plays. Pick your series you want to play in well, look ahead in the series.

USAF K9 · 10-09-13, 02:30 PM

ok thanks

J.M. Disciple · 10-09-13, 05:45 PM

Line slowly going up on STL, im going to go ahead and jump on it.

beringeyy · 10-09-13, 09:41 PM