Looks like things are bunching up atop BTP

Mudcat · 11-10-08, 01:50 PM

Man I just had a quick scan of things and, if they were bunched up a couple of weeks ago, they are really bunched up now.

I think I'm seeing a couple of 19's, then about four 18's, some 17's.

It's going to be a pressure cooker.

All I know is, I was 9 out of the lead 3 weeks ago and now I'm only 1 back. I still haven't had a perfect 4-0 week so I'm expecting that any minute now.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

laxdjock · 11-10-08, 02:35 PM

I missed a couple weeks and then stunk it up, so I'm out...but I'm crawling closer to respectability at least.....+6.

Boner_18 · 11-11-08, 09:50 AM

Anything can happen, I believe I was in the red at some point and have had two +5 weeks in a row... I hope I don't fall as fast as I can climb.

Dark Horse · 12-01-08, 06:27 AM

Looks like aakj has won. He has 27 pts and can't be caught in the last week, unless he decides to play the last week. But he's SBR (aka j?). Players with 20 or more points:

aakj 27
Mudcat 22
Silverfox 21
capitalist pig 20
gerry 20
jake38 20
Sinister Cat 20

(And Prick, HOU -3 is the pick for MNF week 13)

capitalist pig · 12-01-08, 08:38 AM

aakj isnt playing for money, so his score is irrevelant in the top 3 prize pool. No disrespect to him though, excellent job he has done in the contest.

So there is still a race, especially for 2nd and third place prizes.BBs won may prove important in a tie breaker.

later

konck · 12-01-08, 07:08 PM

Did the prick take hoston?

billmunny · 12-01-08, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by konck

Did the prick take hoston?

The prick hasn't taken anybody yet. When he does, it will show up in his picks.

billmunny · 12-01-08, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by konck

Did the prick take hoston?

The Prick took the Jags +3.

Mudcat · 12-02-08, 10:41 AM

I guess aakj should be congratulated. Hopefully he is betting real money on his picks.

But to me the contest is about one thing and one thing only, the grand prize.

Let's get it on ladies.

capitalist pig · 12-02-08, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Mudcat

I guess aakj should be congratulated. Hopefully he is betting real money on his picks.

But to me the contest is about one thing and one thing only, the grand prize.

Let's get it on ladies.

I will consider it a small miracle if I actually finish in the top three, its seems the more time I actually spend trying to figure out winners the worse I do. I had been doing pretty well, till this last week when when I lost 3 points. Im going back to my gut instinct picks this weekend. Good luck to everyone who has a chance at a top three finish.

later

Mudcat · 12-02-08, 12:40 PM

Oh, I think you have a better shot than you are giving yourself credit for. It's just 4 picks. I have supreme confidence in my NFL capping ability - but anything can happen with 4 picks.

Despite my self-confidence, I have even given some thought to just sitting out and not risking a minus and seeing if anyone can catch me. I doubt I will do that but there is some strategic soundness to it.

Some people below the 20 point mark are definitely not to be counted out of the money either.

alta · 12-02-08, 01:05 PM

I was thinking that the contest had several weeks left thru the NFL regular season, but tipped off by this thread went back and read the BTP fine print to discover that Beat The Prick is a weekly contest running each of the first 14 weeks of the regular NFL season. Since week 13, was my biggest losing week, no chance now!
Can you say Mini-BTP Contest for the final 4 weeks of the NFL?
Can you hear me?

Dark Horse · 12-02-08, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Mudcat

Despite my self-confidence, I have even given some thought to just sitting out and not risking a minus and seeing if anyone can catch me. I doubt I will do that but there is some strategic soundness to it.

The college bettors will have to go first anyway.

That puts you at an advantage.

Mudcat · 12-02-08, 01:59 PM

Many variables and strategic options. I haven't even started looking at the slate of games. The degree to which I like them would also factor into whether I enter picks or not.

I could probably guarantee myself, I dunno, $1250 just with strategic hedges. Parlays and whatnot.

But I have a feeling I'll end up just going for the gusto.

SexyMit · 12-03-08, 01:37 PM

I'm 4 points out of 3rd. Had I not lost 3 points 3 weeks ago I would be 1 point behind 3rd and 3 pts from 1st. Oh well unless someone chokes at the top I hope to finish in the top 10. Thats a big enough feat for me anything better then that and i'm happy.

Dark Horse · 12-03-08, 01:41 PM

Very close race. Looks like it's necessary to hit > 75% of best bets.

100 players are positive (1 pt or more), and 72 players are negative (-1 pt or worse). That's 58% winning players. Wow. What are the Hilton numbers?

Given that type of quality field, perhaps consider lowering the importance of the best bet in future contests? After all, anything over 65% should -generally- be considered 'short term positive fluctuation' (aka as luck).

GL to the leaders in week 14. Fantastic job.

Sinister Cat · 12-03-08, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Given that type of quality field, perhaps consider lowering the importance of the best bet in future contests? After all, anything over 65% should -generally- be considered 'short term positive fluctuation' (aka as luck).

I guess it depends on what the point of the contest is. If it is just to be a fun contest, then I think there's something to be said for the role of luck. A lot of people think luck is fun-- and it levels the playing field,which might not be a bad thing (don't need Mudcat winning every year). On the other hand, if the point of the contest is purely to reward sharp bettors, then what you say is of course, better.

Anyway, should be a fun final weekend. Lot of games to follow since the final standing for an individual contestant will depend so much on others' picks. I might end up watching some college games this weekend..

Mudcat · 12-04-08, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by Sinister Cat

Anyway, should be a fun final weekend.

I couldn't agree more. BTP has been adding a fun little side-dimension to football weekends for 4 years now.

Good luck SC.

Sinister Cat · 12-06-08, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by Mudcat

Good luck SC.

Good luck to you too, Mudcat, if you choose to do some plays this weekend.

I've set up a spreadsheet to track the final weekend, for the top 13 contestants (everyone with 15 or more points heading in). I won't make any mention of individual plays, obviously (at least until everyone has picks in), but I'll try to keep track of the standings and post them occasionally in this thread. I can't guarantee that it will be accurate, however.

The following contenders haven't made picks yet for this week:

Mudcat
SilverFox8
mr x
Iceman

Here are the standings headed into the afternoon's college games (the games remaining assumes that picks will be made, which isn't necessarily going to be the case). Sorry for the formatting:

Code:

Contestant	Remaining	Points	BB won
Mudcat	       4	22	10
SilverFox8	4	21	10
Sinister Cat	4	20	10
gerry	       4	20	8
jake38	       4	20	7
capitalist pig	3	19	11
rta21	       4	19	8
mr x	       4	18	10
koshamoman	2	17	6
SexyMit	       4	16	9
madworld	3	16	9
Iceman	       4	15	8
Boner_18         4 	15	6

Sinister Cat · 12-06-08, 04:35 PM

.

Mudcat · 12-06-08, 07:25 PM

The heat is on. Does anyone know the tie-breaking procedures?

Mudcat · 12-06-08, 07:28 PM

Nevermind, found it.

Tiebreakers for season-ending grand prizes are as follows: 1. High Score; 2. Number of Correct Best Bets; 3. Total Money Won. If any season-ending ties remain, prize amounts will be split accordingly.

losturmarbles · 12-06-08, 07:42 PM

so this the last week?

Mudcat · 12-06-08, 07:49 PM

Yes indeed.

Sinister Cat · 12-07-08, 09:22 AM

I have updated standings.. I'm going to hold off on posting them though until SBR updates the Current Week Leaderboard (or MudCat and SilverFox8 submit picks). Didn't realize they were slow in updating them...

ShamsWoof10 · 12-07-08, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by Sinister Cat

I have updated standings.. I'm going to hold off on posting them though until SBR updates the Current Week Leaderboard (or MudCat and SilverFox8 submit picks). Didn't realize they were slow in updating them...

Knock yourself out... Most of the games for the leaders are NFL so there is not much updating to be done...not to mention that I think the other leaders can update for themselves...

As for SBR.. well "Taco/Ganch" is not the fastest when it comes to anything but putting a stain on a shirt...

Mudcat · 12-07-08, 11:28 AM

The gambling gods giveth, the gambling gods taketh away.

While it is an advantage to be able to see some college results before making my picks, by waiting I also risk losing some lines I want. I was looking hard at PITT-3 but it has moved to 3.5

That is a big key move. Don't know if I can take it now.

Mudcat · 12-07-08, 11:55 AM

I'm in.

Hard to believe I'm saying this but, Go Browns.

Sinister Cat · 12-07-08, 02:06 PM

Alright, sbrcontests isn't updated, but all those in contention have picks in, so here are the standings heading into the final NFL games. Good luck everyone:

Code:

Contestant	Remaining	Points	BB won
Mudcat	       4	22	10
jake38	       2	22	7
SilverFox8	4	21	10
Sinister Cat	4	20	10
gerry	       4	20	8
capitalist pig	2	18	11
mr x	       4	18	10
SexyMit	       3	18	10
rta21	       0	18	8
koshamoman	0	17	6
madworld	2	15	9
Iceman	       4	15	8
Boner_18	4	15	6

diogee · 12-07-08, 02:09 PM

I forget about this contest every week until only the late nfl games are left.

Dark Horse · 12-07-08, 02:19 PM

Not exactly sure what the Giants are doing, but it looks a lot like shooting themselves in the foot. (first 1H shutout in four years).

Whoo... No shutout after all. Blocked FG with 7 seconds left returned for TD! lol

Not really BTP stuff, except for those on Giants. Like Mudcat.

Sinister Cat · 12-07-08, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Not exactly sure what the Giants are doing, but it looks a lot like shooting themselves in the foot. (first 1H shutout in four years).

Whoo... No shutout after all. Blocked FG with 7 seconds left returned for TD! lol

Not really BTP stuff, except for those on Giants. Like Mudcat.

Has the biggest BTP implications of the early games:
Eagles +6.5:
Iceman (BB)
SexyMit
Sinister Cat

Giants -6.5:
Boner_18 (BB)
mr x (BB)
Mudcat

Mudcat · 12-07-08, 03:03 PM

At the moment, I am facing armageddon. Down in all 3 active games including best bet. Need some stiffs to get scoring.

Mudcat · 12-07-08, 03:36 PM

Oooh. Cleveland (best bet) kicks a field goal to get inside the number. Now down 12 on a 14 point spread.

Still lots of time left. Cinci bet dead, Giants all but dead.

Hanging by a thread.