My Shrine of Academic Articles: All Things Sports Gambling

[hutennis]

If current pinny no vig (market) is 100 but your model correctly shows that the fair value for your side is -103 (I'm giving an 1.5% edge over market) you still can't make money on your superior handicapping b/c you have to pay -105 to participate in a trade.
Only if your model is so good that it beats market by huge 6c margin you are expected to win.

What, again, I obviously don't understand?

[mathdotcom]

Hutennis youre right but its irrelevant to consider an edge against the no vig line. Who cares what your edge is on that no vig example if pinn is dealing -104/-104. Edge is always compared vs the market line with vig included. So you have a 2c edge if pinn is -101/-107 not a 3c edge.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If current pinny no vig (market) is 100 but your model correctly shows that the fair value for your side is -103 (I'm giving an 1.5% edge over market) you still can't make money on your superior handicapping b/c you have to pay -105 to participate in a trade.
Only if your model is so good that it beats market by huge 6c margin you are expected to win.

What, again, I obviously don't understand?

What you don't understand is that there is no edge in your wager. That is NOT an edge. If fair value for a particular side is -103, then you need a wager of better than -103 to have ANY edge.

[cyberbabble]

Good posts, Monkey & Mathey. Even I understand what you talking about. Maybe you're in the wrong thread by accident.
Is hutennis considered to be a sharp by you two? I might want to ask for a promotion from novice to sharp level 1.

This thread was getting good. People, don't let it die due to boring posts.

[hutennis]

What you don't understand is that there is no edge in your wager. That is NOT an edge. If fair value for a particular side is -103, then you need a wager of better than -103 to have ANY edge.

Well, thats my point really.

Let me rephrase it then.

Oddsmakers say that implied probability of the event is 50%.
Your model, guts or whatever you use to come up with your number says that IP is 51%. And this number is correct.
Congratulations! You are the man. You are sharper than sharpest. You have 1% advantage over the most sophisticated oddsmaking system known to man.
But as you well know it is not enough.

So it is not enough to be sharper than sharpest (not easy at all). You must be sharper by wide enough margin.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, thats my point really.

Let me rephrase it then.

Oddsmakers say that implied probability of the event is 50%.
Your model, guts or whatever you use to come up with your number says that IP is 51%. And this number is correct.
Congratulations! You are the man. You are sharper than sharpest. You have 1% advantage over the most sophisticated oddsmaking system known to man.
But as you well know it is not enough.

So it is not enough to be sharper than sharpest (not easy at all). You must be sharper by wide enough margin.

So lines never move and openers are the most sophisticated oddsmaking system known to man? Interesting.

You're talking about one bet to begin with. Pretty ridiculous argument.

Nobody measures their edge against implied probability. So, you can quit bringing that up as well.

[jgilmartin]

hutennis, why does steam chasing work if no one can more accurately calculate probability than the oddsmakers?

[hutennis]

Yeh, lines move. And the whole world is there to participate in the move.
And every time it moves it is back to square one for you.
You are at new opener and most sophisticated oddsmaking system known to man is there too.
You still need to be sharper than sharpest by large enough margin.
There is no way around it in a liquid markets.

[hutennis]

hutennis, why does steam chasing work if no one can more accurately calculate probability than the oddsmakers?

B/C it has nothing to do with handicapping.
It simply way to punish slow books.

[MonkeyF0cker]

B/C it has nothing to do with handicapping.
It simply way to punish slow books.

Uhh. Bettors create the steam.

[hutennis]

Cause and effect confusion?

[Justin7]

hutennis,

Quit posting here.

[hutennis]

hutennis,

Quit posting here.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/1544589-chasing-steam-limiting-books-justin7.html#post13506281

My case is #1.

Why do I have to quit again?

[Justin7]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbook...l#post13506281

My case is #1.

Why do I have to quit again?

I'm all for good discussion on theoretical topics. You don't get it, you're making unsupportable arguments, and disrupting possibly intelligent discussion.

You have one last chance, or I am banning you from this forum. Answer this question (and admitting you don't know would be correct if you can't offer a good answer).

In MLB, the limits on all books go up early in the day. On a particular game, the whole board moves 15 cents, but there is no new information on injuries, weather, umpires, or anything else. Why did the whole market move its price?

[hutennis]

LOL

I do get it, Justin. Believe me, I get it more than you know.
If my arguments are unsupportable - destroy them.
Just try do it without falling for this fallacy crap that is so popular around here.

As far as your baseball move...

It could be that you don't have a complete information. You just think you have.
Or enough money came in to spook the books.
Maybe those money truly had unique knowledge.
Or maybe it was a little manipulation in progress.

I'm sure you can find another reason. So what. What is your point?

[Ra77er]

Justin please forgive the disruption but I absolutely have to get this in here....

[Justin7]

LOL

I do get it, Justin. Believe me, I get it more than you know.
If my arguments are unsupportable - destroy them.
Just try do it without falling for this fallacy crap that is so popular around here.

As far as your baseball move...

It could be that you don't have a complete information. You just think you have.
Or enough money came in to spook the books.
Maybe those money truly had unique knowledge.
Or maybe it was a little manipulation in progress.

I'm sure you can find another reason. So what. What is your point?

I set the hypotheticals. There is no new information. If you think this scenario is impossible, that can be your answer. Given that scenario...

Either money came in, or the books moved on air.

Whichever could happen in this scenario, why? Your posting privileges are at stake.

[hutennis]

So, did I pass the test or not?

Did or did not, you are still welcome to destroy my unsupported arguments.

I don't see how you can call them like totally unsupported.
One of them, the last one, was supported by you personally.

[Justin7]

So, did I pass the test or not?

Did or did not, you are still welcome to destroy my unsupported arguments.

I don't see how you can call them like totally unsupported.
One of them, the last one, was supported by you personally.

You didn't answer my question. Assume my hypothetical happened. Why did the line move? Was it money bet? If so, why was the money bet? Did the books move on air? If so, why? Was it something else? What? Is the scenario impossible? If so, why?

Last chance.

[hutennis]

Wow. I like it though.

Was it money bet?

Very well could be.

If so, why was the money bet?

Money saw starting pitcher slipping on a banana peal and getting up with a visible discomfort in his right shoulder.
Or BW decided to work on a line a little bit.

Did the books move on air? If so, why?

The whole screen? Unlikely. Needs to be a reason
A sharp sportsbook will not move on air, they don't follow the crowd and they take huge bets.

Was it something else? What? Is the scenario impossible? If so, why?

What? Aliens? Elvis Presley in a vicinity? You tell me.

[Justin7]

hutennis,

You had your chance. I told you, no new information. No crapification of HTT. I'll see you in 3 days.

One correct answer was: a group with better analysis than the sportsbooks started betting. After they obtained their position (and some steam chasers pursued), the market moved to its current point.

If you care to try again when you return, we will play for the same stakes.

[Optional]

You are going to be very busy if "disrupting possibly intelligent discussion" just became a bannable offense at SBR Justin.

[CrazyCarl]

Hey uh, I hope it's OK to post this, but can you please RAR your files and upload them to rapidshare or something?

And also PM me the link?

Just kidding about all that.

[mathdotcom]

Good move Justin. Now Wrecktangle please.

[durito]

There are way worse regular posters in here than that guy.

[Justin7]

There are way worse regular posters in here than that guy.

Yeah. I'm torn. I'd love to clean this place up. A bad answer is fine, as long as it is well articulated and can be discussed. This player fell beneath that, and was just trying to mislead people.

Clean up. Takes so much time... We're trying to set up HTT so people can be banned from posting in this one forum, and still able to go to other places.

[CrazyCarl]

Yeah. I'm torn. I'd love to clean this place up. A bad answer is fine, as long as it is well articulated and can be discussed. This player fell beneath that, and was just trying to mislead people.

Clean up. Takes so much time... We're trying to set up HTT so people can be banned from posting in this one forum, and still able to go to other places.

Well, I was hoping to get a thought or two from you in my "fading" thread if you missed it, but it quickly turned into a thread fit for players talk (not that there's anything wrong with that, but this forum isn't players talk). A bit unrelated, but if you'd respond to the OP with your thoughts on it (or anyone else with serious thoughts -- I only got like 3 or 4 who actually posted thoughtful things in there), I'd like to hear it.

Sorry for the plug. In order to make this not only a plug... I think it's fine to not allow trolls. Also there's lots of trolls in people's specific threads (who post all their plays throughout a season in the same thread and keep track of it in there), which gets really annoying. Would reporting them be out of bounds in that case, or is that only for extreme posts?

Sorry for straying.

[cyberbabble]

May 1
Keep the thread alive.
Occupy a stool at the corner bar.

Basically my posting forum experience is here. I read some others, but I am such a modest fellow I don't post anywhere.

I don't know anything about forum software packages. It seems to me that allowing the person that started the thread the ability to delete post within the thread would work. The posts are numbered, so don't remove it completely. Leave the post "in place" along with the posters name. Replace the body of the post with "This has been removed by (thread starter name)". You need to leave the empty shell so people will know happened. If it is deleted completely, it will probably lead to pointless discussions about software "bugs".

People actually get patents on things like this. If this isn't patented yet -- Patent Pending cyberbabble 2012.

I'm not really a nit about this. Throw in a snarky one liner. Try to be a little witty. Some people should be ridiculed. Then go away.

I made a recent lame, not well thought post asking for some stat help. I attracted hutennis. His post was mostly irrelevant drivel and not really to the point. It did cause me to think about what I was asking. I made a short response. We dropped the thread and moved on.

I was playing internet poker. A person joined the game and then started telling us we shouldn't be playing internet poker. This is because poker sites are used by terrorists to launder money. Problem now solved. Is hutennis a poker player? DOJ and hutennis - thanks for protecting me from the terrorists and myself.

Monkey used to be a professional poker player? I hate to use cliches but don't tap the glass. If somebody doesn't understand what this means, ask around. I can't discuss such sensitive things in a public forum. You guys might use it against me and destroy the +EV of my million dollar NFL model.

[MonkeyF0cker]

May 1
Keep the thread alive.
Occupy a stool at the corner bar.

Basically my posting forum experience is here. I read some others, but I am such a modest fellow I don't post anywhere.

I don't know anything about forum software packages. It seems to me that allowing the person that started the thread the ability to delete post within the thread would work. The posts are numbered, so don't remove it completely. Leave the post "in place" along with the posters name. Replace the body of the post with "This has been removed by (thread starter name)". You need to leave the empty shell so people will know happened. If it is deleted completely, it will probably lead to pointless discussions about software "bugs".

People actually get patents on things like this. If this isn't patented yet -- Patent Pending cyberbabble 2012.

I'm not really a nit about this. Throw in a snarky one liner. Try to be a little witty. Some people should be ridiculed. Then go away.

I made a recent lame, not well thought post asking for some stat help. I attracted hutennis. His post was mostly irrelevant drivel and not really to the point. It did cause me to think about what I was asking. I made a short response. We dropped the thread and moved on.

I was playing internet poker. A person joined the game and then started telling us we shouldn't be playing internet poker. This is because poker sites are used by terrorists to launder money. Problem now solved. Is hutennis a poker player? DOJ and hutennis - thanks for protecting me from the terrorists and myself.

Monkey used to be a professional poker player? I hate to use cliches but don't tap the glass. If somebody doesn't understand what this means, ask around. I can't discuss such sensitive things in a public forum. You guys might use it against me and destroy the +EV of my million dollar NFL model.

Yes. I started out playing poker professionally and moved into other areas of professional gambling. I no longer enjoy the game of poker - especially here in Vegas casinos. The people are annoying. You hear the same tired jokes over and over again. And putting in 8-12 hours a day at a table is an extremely mundane lifestyle.

"Tapping the glass" is similar to providing modeling methodologies to the public for free. Although, it's quite a bit more complex than combinatorics (outs) and equity in poker.

[Optional]

Yeah. I'm torn. I'd love to clean this place up. A bad answer is fine, as long as it is well articulated and can be discussed. This player fell beneath that, and was just trying to mislead people.

Clean up. Takes so much time... We're trying to set up HTT so people can be banned from posting in this one forum, and still able to go to other places.

Maybe setup a private section for those that already know it all. Write up some sort of test/quiz to prove your knowledge. Trivia engine might even suit the job.

Then the Think Tank can go back to being a great resource for brand new bettors to gain a clue, like it used to be.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Maybe setup a private section for those that already know it all. Write up some sort of test/quiz to prove your knowledge. Trivia engine might even suit the job.

Then the Think Tank can go back to being a great resource for brand new bettors to gain a clue, like it used to be.

What makes it any less of a resource now? Because the threads aren't on page one anymore?

I don't know if I haven't said this directly enough or emphatically enough (even though I feel like I've said it 27 times in this thread), but there is only so much that people are willing to share. There is a ceiling for any type of public forum like this. The rest needs to be done on your own.

You can only guide a horse to water. Teaching them to drink all of yours is suicide.

[subs]

Justin, do u have stats on how many different people visit the tank every week/month.

just trying to get an idea, cos i don't think it is so many...

Monkey, i'm not a modeller, don't care to b a modeller and am not expecting to b somehow shown how to beat SBO and the EPL. But in between bets i like to waste time chat some shit online and maybe learn something interesting as well. maybe help people not get their asses kicked too badly or maybe help some1 mess up a slack local or tell some1 not to post NBA teasers on totals cos he's losing other people money...

prolly their r others like me here, never going to out perform the big markets who just find that stuff interesting. u know that watching screens is not exactly creative and fulfilling so let us have our fun and maybe u can have a good laugh at it. or maybe, even better, shoot holes and troll when we r completely ******* it up.

u never know we might b adding to the pool that u win from


BTW if no 1 here knows Monkey, he's the best, most knowledgeable regular poster here since Ganchrow and has prolly dropped more skills and dissed more pussies/scammers than half the board combined. so excuse me if i (and prolly a bunch of others) have no sympathy if u get ur little internet ego hurt by him or some of the other top posters here.

Altho losing 4LC to steve's trolling was a blow. shame cos the guy seems like 1 of the good guys.

COME BACK 4LC.


PS come on the celtics and the under.

[Optional]

What makes it any less of a resource now? Because the threads aren't on page one anymore?

I don't know if I haven't said this directly enough or emphatically enough (even though I feel like I've said it 27 times in this thread), but there is only so much that people are willing to share. There is a ceiling for any type of public forum like this. The rest needs to be done on your own.

You can only guide a horse to water. Teaching them to drink all of yours is suicide.

I get that. And I know it can get boring having the same questions come up over and again if you are a regular. But simply because a newbie hasn't searched, or searched hard enough, or maybe simply wants to engage people over their personal situation or ideas is no reason to pour sarcasm and scorn all over them.

Not everyone has a statistics qualification or is even interested in modelling, yet they still have 'lower level' questions that only really fit in here. This was my favorite section upon arrival at SBR, and was VERY helpful to me, but it feels like there is an organized effort to drive away any non regular who dares ask a question these days. Or the thread just turns into a dick swinging competition between the regulars.

Maybe you are too close to the forest to see these trees.

[nikossf]

enough with the nonsense...post some articles already!!

[antifoil]

just post some links from fangraphs and talk about how they could be used in modeling baseball. i just read one about relievers at petco may not get that big a bump from the park, but the sample size is rather small and there is a good criticism in the comments about potential selection bias. this may be too micro for what you guys want.

there was also a piece on mccarthy adding a pitch. if it turns out to be successful, he could be more valuable. i don't model but i would guess he is one of if not the best value pitcher to bet on. so that could be something to watch. again maybe to micro for you guys.