My Shrine of Academic Articles: All Things Sports Gambling

**subs** · 04-26-12, 07:13 PM

sounds good, how about u post ur top 1 or 2 articles and we go from there?

**LtDementia** · 04-26-12, 07:59 PM

We're in baseball season now so a couple of the first on the list might be appropriate -

"A Markov Chain Approach to Baseball"
"An Evaluation of Major League Baseball Offensive Performance Models"

LT

**Justin7** · 04-26-12, 08:14 PM

High3r,

Are all of these articles located in one place?

**AngryPlanets** · 04-26-12, 09:11 PM

I am working on my NFL algorithms already, so these would be enormously helpful:
"Modeling Association Football Score and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market"
"Predictions for National Football League Games Via Linear Model Methodology"
"Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games"

Thanks for sharing with the forum.

I have a couple websites... let me know if it would be helpful to upload them to my host.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-26-12, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

High3r,

Are all of these articles located in one place?

Yes. All these ones are on my daily use laptop. I have quite a few on my backup (older) laptop. We're going to start things off with these two:

"A Markov Chain Approach to Baseball" and "Modeling Association Football Score and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market".

Enjoy. These are lengthy. Let's kick off some meaningful discussion. I am very opinionated about a lot of the research produced today (in all fields). Hopefully, these articles are good.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-27-12, 01:25 AM

What are you expecting by making this thread? You want open, public discussion on what works and what doesn't?? Good luck with that.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 02:47 AM

Just discussion. Pessimists need not post in here. Some of these articles are flawed, some make great points, and others, I don't know what to think. Why not bring these articles to the community and see what happens? Can't hurt and many posters don't have access to stat journals...thought I would share.

**Wotton** · 04-27-12, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Yes. All these ones are on my daily use laptop. I have quite a few on my backup (older) laptop. We're going to start things off with these two:

"A Markov Chain Approach to Baseball" and "Modeling Association Football Score and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market".

Enjoy. These are lengthy. Let's kick off some meaningful discussion. I am very opinionated about a lot of the research produced today (in all fields). Hopefully, these articles are good.

My 2 cents on the second article:

The Dixon Coles model is, despite being the most widely known, flawed:
The defensive and attacking ability of teams are not independent so you have to define them simultaneously, which is done in the first article I've attached that uses the good stuff of the DC model (the modification of the pure Poisson framework to take into account the low scoring possibilities underestimated by Maher's model) but goes deeper. I'm still working on back testing it.

The second one tries to go back to more simplicity by using a regression based approach. I've only read it once but it seems pretty awesome...

Modelling football results and the efficincy of fixed odds betting.pdf
Predicting and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league.pdf

**cutchemist42** · 04-27-12, 08:45 AM

Great thread!

**VLR100** · 04-27-12, 09:24 AM

I notice the reference to Charles Reep in there, the man who set English football up route 1. 'Chance dominates the game'... If any of you have read the excellent Inverting The Pyramid, you'll recognise him. He argued for long ball football, with his figures showing that 91.5% of footballing moves in the games he studied consisted of three passes or fewer. If the number of passes in the chain before a goal made no difference, then the percentage of goals scored from moves of three passes or fewer should also be 91.5%, yet by Reep's own figures showed that 80% of goals came from moves of three passes or fewer. Apologies for taking this thread off topic, but at least one can take heart when one feels stuck in a dead end, when those that say football is completely unpredictable don't properly understand their own statistics.

**cyberbabble** · 04-27-12, 10:38 AM

Mods, Justin7, serious posters

Look at a site, pokerai.org, to see how a forum for serious research can be handled. It is a poker botting site.

Start a subforum for academic articles, software, and anything that is really useful or relevant for sports betting.
Mods should actually do some mod work, delete pointless posts and comments, like Monkeys. Use some judgement about the quality of what is posted. Move the beginning level posts to the beginners forum.
Set up another locked subforum and allow access to people after they make a some worthwhile posts.

Good post High3r. I nominate you for mod for the new subforum.

**cyberbabble** · 04-27-12, 11:02 AM

By the way, you are probably going to run into copywrite problems on some of these.

Some academic papers are openly posted on the internet. Some of these have restrictions on openly posting them.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 02:10 PM

Going to read or re-read the Markov Chain Approach article over the weekend and share my thoughts.

We have a fellow poster, who is building a football model, and I look forward to him sharing his process and maybe we can even provide him with some meaningful criticisms.

About the copyright thing. I guess there might not be a way that I can post these articles. I really don't want to create any possible situations for myself or potentially, for SBR. What do you all think?

Also, I believe we're in Justin7's territory and I'd prefer not mod anything--not my style.

**byronbb** · 04-27-12, 04:00 PM

Interested in everything that deals with the marketplace.

**durito** · 04-27-12, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by cyberbabble

Look at a site, pokerai.org, to see how a forum for serious research can be handled. It is a poker botting site.

Start a subforum for academic articles, software, and anything that is really useful or relevant for sports betting.
Mods should actually do some mod work, delete pointless posts and comments, like Monkeys. Use some judgement about the quality of what is posted. Move the beginning level posts to the beginners forum.
Set up another locked subforum and allow access to people after they make a some worthwhile posts.

Good post High3r. I nominate you for mod for the new subforum.

No one that actually does this stuff successfully in sports markets (like say moneyfocker) is going to interested in sharing their work on a public forum.

**AngryPlanets** · 04-27-12, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by durito

No one that actually does this stuff successfully in sports markets (like say moneyfocker) is going to interested in sharing their work on a public forum.

This thread really isn't about sharing individual work, is it? It is about discussing academic articles and corresponding theory.

I don't see what the problem is here. This is the handicapper's think tank, right? Let's pretend it actually is one.

And from what I've seen, the less MonkeyF0cker participates in individual threads, the better.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 05:54 PM

exactly, this is just about discussing information that's out there and their supportive theories.

**a4u2fear** · 04-27-12, 06:04 PM

higher, will you or won't you post the articles?

**Dark Horse** · 04-27-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by durito

No one that actually does this stuff successfully in sports markets (like say moneyfocker) is going to interested in sharing their work on a public forum.

Then again, how many academics of above average intelligence would publish something that could make them millions if they didn't publish it?

**mathdotcom** · 04-27-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Then again, how many academics of above average intelligence would publish something that could make them millions if they didn't publish it?

Cause they're pussies

That's the real answer

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-27-12, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by AngryPlanets

This thread really isn't about sharing individual work, is it? It is about discussing academic articles and corresponding theory.

I don't see what the problem is here. This is the handicapper's think tank, right? Let's pretend it actually is one.

And from what I've seen, the less MonkeyF0cker participates in individual threads, the better.

What is there to discuss? The articles are implementations of basic statistical methodologies. Either they work or they don't. If you think profitable handicappers are going to come in here and publicly provide methodologies that improve upon these articles, you're an ignorant fool. And if the dim-witted lot of you who can't figure this stuff out on your own actually would figure anything out, I hope you enjoy the three days of profitability you'll have from it. Maybe you're too dense to realize that people on the other side of the counter also peruse this site.

By the way, I've provided more help and information to posters here than you ever will. If you don't like my delivery, too fukkin bad. Grab yourself a tissue.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 09:06 PM

Maybe there are statistical models, patterns, etc. that some of us haven't been exposed to. What's the harm in sharing, reading, and discussing? You don't think that the dim-witted lot of is going to come up with anything that has not already been discussed or produced, do you? Not everyone is as gifted as you are...you probably should not interact with people that are so beneath where you're at, or we might infect you.

**AngryPlanets** · 04-27-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

By the way, I've provided more help and information to posters here than you ever will.

[citation needed]
All I have seen from you in my limited time on this sight is moronic snark and stupid crap like your current post.

**Dark Horse** · 04-27-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Cause they're pussies

That's the real answer

True. Think the Pavlov dog would go after the pussies if I cut the Markov chain?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-27-12, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by AngryPlanets

[citation needed]
All I have seen from you in my limited time on this sight is moronic snark and stupid crap like your current post.

Even my snark provides more information than you do.

**Justin7** · 04-27-12, 09:38 PM

High3r,

Look at each article. Does it say "Copyright" anywhere on it? If not, feel free to post or attach it. If it has a copyright, you can still post a link to the site hosting it.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-27-12, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Maybe there are statistical models, patterns, etc. that some of us haven't been exposed to. What's the harm in sharing, reading, and discussing? You don't think that the dim-witted lot of is going to come up with anything that has not already been discussed or produced, do you? Not everyone is as gifted as you are...you probably should not interact with people that are so beneath where you're at, or we might infect you.

If you haven't been exposed to Markov Chains or regression, you should be reading books - not papers.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 09:46 PM

Monkey, I am talking about the forum as a whole. Again, you know all this stuff, so why are you bothering with this thread? I am trying to introduce something positive...maybe it will lead to places you have already been. Let us take the journey.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-27-12, 09:53 PM

The entire point of me being in this thread was to ask the question of what possible benefit you think you would get from trying to do it publicly and collectively.

There is none.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-27-12, 10:03 PM

Meaningful discussion. The articles are facilitators. You act like what's being discussed is industry-innovative. Most of the articles were published in the 1990s. I don't think we are going to stumble upon anything that's going to be revolutionary. There's your answer. Since this sort of discussion turns you off, there's plenty of other threads that will entertain you. TTWarrior wants to know what cloathes will make him look good...maybe start there.

**AngryPlanets** · 04-27-12, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by cyberbabble

Start a subforum for academic articles, software, and anything that is really useful or relevant for sports betting.
Mods should actually do some mod work, delete pointless posts and comments, like Monkeys. Use some judgement about the quality of what is posted. Move the beginning level posts to the beginners forum.
Set up another locked subforum and allow access to people after they make a some worthwhile posts.

Good post High3r. I nominate you for mod for the new subforum.

I think this is a great idea. On the one-out-of-one-thousand chance this actually would happen, I volunteer to be the moderator. I especially like the idea of limiting read-access to constructive participants. The signal-to-noise ratio on this forum is pretty pathetic. I bet, if this idea is implemented, that it would be the most important sportsbetting forum on internet within months.

I also bet we would have awesome meetups in vegas on Super Bowl weekend. Make it happen.

**Justin7** · 04-27-12, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by AngryPlanets

I think this is a great idea. On the one-out-of-one-thousand chance this actually would happen, I volunteer to be the moderator. I especially like the idea of limiting read-access to constructive participants. The signal-to-noise ratio on this forum is pretty pathetic. I bet, if this idea is implemented, that it would be the most important sportsbetting forum on internet within months.

I also bet we would have awesome meetups in vegas on Super Bowl weekend. Make it happen.

If you ran this sub-forum, how would you propose running it? In general, SBR wants as much interaction as possible. Everyone reading, and as many posting as possible... Although I agree that the signal to noise ratio causes problems.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-28-12, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Meaningful discussion. The articles are facilitators. You act like what's being discussed is industry-innovative. Most of the articles were published in the 1990s. I don't think we are going to stumble upon anything that's going to be revolutionary. There's your answer. Since this sort of discussion turns you off, there's plenty of other threads that will entertain you. TTWarrior wants to know what cloathes will make him look good...maybe start there.

So you're telling me that I should spend time in Player's Talk when it's quite clear that's exactly where you stumbled over here from? LOL. Irony at its best.

What is MEANINGFUL discussion? Isn't it exactly what I stated? What else could possibly be meaningful? Why do you keep avoiding this question?

You're just talking in circles, coming in here with a bunch of papers that you downloaded, hoping that someone will help you make sense of it.

"Here's a bunch of papers. Discuss." = "Help me. I'm lost."

Let's just call a spade a spade.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 04-28-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by AngryPlanets

I think this is a great idea. On the one-out-of-one-thousand chance this actually would happen, I volunteer to be the moderator. I especially like the idea of limiting read-access to constructive participants. The signal-to-noise ratio on this forum is pretty pathetic. I bet, if this idea is implemented, that it would be the most important sportsbetting forum on internet within months.

I also bet we would have awesome meetups in vegas on Super Bowl weekend. Make it happen.

LMAO. A guy with 26 posts (every single one of them as useless as the next) is nominating himself to moderate a "constructive" forum. The irony in this thread is hysterical.