has the market over-adjusted?..years ago this technique worked

[Winner_13]

Years ago if you beat pinnys closer or no vig line you could make tons of $ fast.
now not as much.
any1 know why this is? thoughts on this?

[AceKingHigh]

I saw a post of you saying you're making $26 for every $100 scalping.. .care to explain more about this subject?!
Thanks in advance !

[Justin7]

There is a ton of manipulation, especially in CBB. It's a bit dangerous to rely only o Pinny's number without doing your own work.

[choo]

why would you manipulate a line right before it closes?

[Justin7]

why would you manipulate a line right before it closes?

I wouldn't right before close... but if you push it an hour before, and everyone copies it/moves on air...

[Winner_13]

I saw a post of you saying you're making $26 for every $100 scalping.. .care to explain more about this subject?!
Thanks in advance !

AceKingHigh I had an over -130 the line at pinny closed was -201 over under+ 186.

thats a $56 scalp.

i didnt scalp just bet it it lost.

[Winner_13]

Also, CBB markets require more minipulation because of the low limits, that is why thier closer may not be as accurate.

however in the big markets where u can get down 120K+ on nfl at -104/-104 pricing this isnt working all that well.
that's what i was asking how come in the other markets its not doing that well, if market is efficient and getting sharper shouldn't it be doing better?

[antifoil]

I also don't understand how NFL lines are efficient if the winnig team covers 80 percent of the time

i guess it would depend on of that 80 how many are dog wins outright, but if it like 33 percent, wouldn't that make those lines inefficient?

[wrongturn]

I also don't understand how NFL lines are efficient if the winnig team covers 80 percent of the time

i guess it would depend on of that 80 how many are dog wins outright, but if it like 33 percent, wouldn't that make those lines inefficient?

This I know. Sample size is too small for a NFL team in a season. Look at JAX under and SF ATS. Every season you are going to see a few of these extreme stats. But they are all after fact stats.

[Winner_13]

on my -130 over pinny closed at -201 +186 under, according to kelly i shoulda bet 21% of my bankroll

lol just fukin lost 21% of my bankroll on that play

[AlwaysDrawing]

on my -130 over pinny closed at -201 +186 under, according to kelly i shoulda bet 21% of my bankroll

lol just fukin lost 21% of my bankroll on that play

See if you could be more results oriented. Beat the pinny closer by 50cents every play, and you will be rich in short order.

[LT Profits]

I also don't understand how NFL lines are efficient if the winnig team covers 80 percent of the time

i guess it would depend on of that 80 how many are dog wins outright, but if it like 33 percent, wouldn't that make those lines inefficient?

Since 1985 through about 6500 NFL games, faves are 48.7% ATS, dogs 51.3% ATS. The fact that winning team covers over 80% of the time is irrelevant.

[byronbb]

The NFL seems broken this year. Protect the QBs = advantage to favourite.

[subs]

There is a ton of manipulation, especially in CBB. It's a bit dangerous to rely only o Pinny's number without doing your own work.

could u rely on a combo of books, maybe cris and The Greek as well? matchbook?

would cut down on ur plays but be better, i dunno.

any1?

[Wrecktangle]

I also don't understand how NFL lines are efficient if the winnig team covers 80 percent of the time

Have you watched the so called "pros" on TV try to pick the winners? No so easy, as we all know. So yeah, we all trying to find the winner SU to beat them ATS, or at least I am...and at least a few others that I know of.

[antifoil]

I would think that the amount those team covers a line by on average would be a better indicator on line effciency that the dog/fav cover rate. That is what I meant. Is that the incorrect way to view this?

[Wrecktangle]

could u rely on a combo of books, maybe cris and The Greek as well? matchbook?

The Greek is out of the US now. Another casualty of Osama's DOJ.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The Greek is out of the US now. Another casualty of Osama's DOJ.

LOL. You're blaming Obama for the Department of Justice enforcing a midnight drop law attached to the Port Security bill which was ratified and hastily finalized by Bush in the last days of his Presidency?

Figures.

I suppose the President is supposed to order directives to the DOJ to selectively enforce only laws that he/she likes, right? That wouldn't corrupt the system AT ALL. LOL.

Give me a break.

A law is a law is a law.

At least have enough intelligence to blame the appropriate adversary.

[durito]

The Greek is out of the US now. Another casualty of Osama's DOJ.

where do you bet?

[hutennis]

on my -130 over pinny closed at -201 +186 under, according to kelly i shoulda bet 21% of my bankroll

lol just fukin lost 21% of my bankroll on that play

Man, thats funny.

Would you be kind enough to explain how do you know betting at -130 that closer will be -201/+186?

And if you don't, how can you calculate at -130 that you need to, according to Kelly, come up with 21% of your BR on that wager?

Don't you calculate your bet size prior to betting?
What was the pinny's line at that point?

[Winner_13]

I didnt know hutennis, It even shocked me that it closed so high. Hit game early in the week
I dont use kelly. But I think this is how it works:
assuming pinnacle had the right price im not taking time to do this fair line is around -193/+193
so figure out chances of winning 193/293. plug into kelly i have -130 on that play. kelly suggested around 21% i believe.

others want to comment did i do that right?

[hutennis]

Oh boy!!!

You use Kelly to calculate the size of your bet prior to betting using CURRENT price and your estimation of what that price should be.

Lets say your -130 was pinny's price (should be cheapest, right?) but your model sais that no vig should be -193.

Only if your estimate is that that much apart from market prior to betting and you trust it so much (and I would not) that you don't mind to use kelly, only then kelly would tell you that you have to bet whatever it takes (at -130 it should be 21% of your BR) to win your monstrous 16.5 % edge.

Edge = %% of your BR you aim to win.
If BR is $1000 you should win 165 and for that at -130 you should bet about 210.

Closing line has nothing yo do with anything.
It is your number vs market at the time of betting.

[chunk]

Does anyone in here get off consistently for any size at even -107 on average? Doubtful if you are honest about success ratio. It can be had, but short lived.

[Wrecktangle]

LOL. You're blaming Obama for the Department of Justice enforcing a midnight drop law attached to the Port Security bill which was ratified and hastily finalized by Bush in the last days of his Presidency?

Figures.

I suppose the President is supposed to order directives to the DOJ to selectively enforce only laws that he/she likes, right? That wouldn't corrupt the system AT ALL. LOL.

Give me a break.

A law is a law is a law.

At least have enough intelligence to blame the appropriate adversary.

Well, they certainly selectively enforce in other areas (some examples: border security, California legalized marijuana statues), why not this?

Osama's DOJ is just an extension of W's. Why do you defend them? Especially after Osama said he'd go after the "high priority" crimes, and specifically said he'd stay away from states rights issues like the marijuana statues.

"A law is a law is a law" --> Monkey is a policeman, who'd a thunk it?

[Wrecktangle]

where do you bet?

Why do you want to know?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, they certainly selectively enforce in other areas (some examples: border security, California legalized marijuana statues), why not this?

Osama's DOJ is just an extension of W's. Why do you defend them? Especially after Osama said he'd go after the "high priority" crimes, and specifically said he'd stay away from states rights issues like the marijuana statues.

"A law is a law is a law" --> Monkey is a policeman, who'd a thunk it?

Border security and California marijuana are selectively enforced? Or are they just universally poorly enforced due to budget and states' rights legal implications?

The UIGEA was passed and set into action by the Bush administration. When you blame the sitting President for it (and call him an oh-so-clever nickname), it makes you look like a partisan blowhard. But I wouldn't put it past you to be a partisan since you don't seem to have the capacity to comprehend the fact that both parties are doing their best to fukk this country up.

[subs]

"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal." - Emma Goldman

"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks." Lord Acton

President Jefferson:

"I hope [that] we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength and [to] bid defiance to the laws of our country."

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.”

[durito]

Why do you want to know?

Because you act like it´s not possible to bet at the greek anymore. I guess you think pinny doesn´t matter either.

I also was unaware of the specific us gov´t action taken against the greek.

[Wrecktangle]

Border security and California marijuana are selectively enforced? Or are they just universally poorly enforced due to budget and states' rights legal implications?

The UIGEA was passed and set into action by the Bush administration. When you blame the sitting President for it (and call him an oh-so-clever nickname), it makes you look like a partisan blowhard. But I wouldn't put it past you to be a partisan since you don't seem to have the capacity to comprehend the fact that both parties are doing their best to fukk this country up.

Whatever you say, Monkey. Take a deep breathe...now let it out. Everything is OK, really.

Now that you've calmed down, go read some of my old posts, you'll see I don't much truck with either "party."

[Wrecktangle]

Because you act like it´s not possible to bet at the greek anymore. I guess you think pinny doesn´t matter either.

I also was unaware of the specific us gov´t action taken against the greek.

Why are you always so damned interested in what I do? Yapping about who I work with, or where I do anything is not something I mention in a public forum, certainly not these days.

[Winner_13]

well to my original purpose of posting:

no1 here knows why the fuk pinny isnt as sharp anymore

[wrongturn]

Is your sample size big enough to give you such conclusion?

[Wrecktangle]

well to my original purpose of posting:

no1 here knows why the fuk pinny isnt as sharp anymore

Probably because no one really believes your point. Your question was of the sort: "When did you quit beating your wife?"

Which sport? how far back? how many data points showed what?

On the the other hand, depending on your swatch of data, you can "prove" almost anything in the sports market especially with these silly frequentest tests and folks picking thru the data to show what they want.

The market is slowly, but surely getting better. And Pinny is typically the best at this.

Or maybe you're just getting "worse" because you're standing still while the market improves.

[durito]

Why are you always so damned interested in what I do? Yapping about who I work with, or where I do anything is not something I mention in a public forum, certainly not these days.

Perhaps you should stop posting entirely then.

[Winner_13]

I am not the only one who has said this, Justin7, trixtrix, others have too.

I just want to know why