has the market over-adjusted?..years ago this technique worked

[Wrecktangle]

Perhaps you should stop posting entirely then.

After this, I'll certainly stop responding to you.

[Wrecktangle]

I am not the only one who has said this, Justin7, trixtrix, others have too.

I just want to know why

Well, I know for a fact that Justin7 is an efficient market guy, so if you have a link to a post that says otherwise, I'd certainly like to see it.

RAS just posted on another forum several posts about the CBB market getting more efficient over the last few years & my data shows it, Porkerjoe mentioned CBB tightening last year here at SBR, and many other discussions I've seen say the same thing. More data is being posted on the net, more eyeballs are looking at it --> all point to market getting more efficient, and Pinny is at the pointy end of the market.

Where's your evidence? CBB is running counter to your point, so is CFB. NFL is a little easier this year, probably due to the lockout, so it'll toughen up again next year.

[durito]

his evidence is he made 500 bets over 6 months and lost.

After this, I'll certainly stop responding to you.

oh noes

[Winner_13]

"Pinny's lean used to be golden"- Justin7

[durito]

quoting one of the biggest frauds around isn´t gonna help your case

[Winner_13]

durito, your actually the only person I know that think it still works like it used to or works better.

Why do you think Justin is a fraud?

[durito]

there is no need to think when you can just get the data and find out, and you are confusing your subjects if you think i am the only person that thinks the betting market is not getting less efficient over time.

[magynuck]

durito, your actually the only person I know that think it still works like it used to or works better.

Why do you think Justin is a fraud?

He is not the only person who thinks it still works.
I have half mil volume a week to support him.

[Wrecktangle]

there is no need to think when you can just get the data and find out, and you are confusing your subjects if you think i am the only person that thinks the betting market is not getting less efficient over time.

Talk about confusing subjects: now we have a confusing sentence. Does this double negative mean "is getting more efficient" ?

I know you can habla, but how about some straight English, Dude?

[Wrecktangle]

"Pinny's lean used to be golden"- Justin7

Almost any quote out of context is meaningless.

I know for a fact that Justin7 is an efficient market guy, unless he flipped over in the last year.

BTW, where is he? He should have showed up by now.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Talk about confusing subjects: now we have a confusing sentence. Does this double negative mean "is getting more efficient" ?

I know you can habla, but how about some straight English, Dude?

Really?

REALLY?

[Wrecktangle]

Really?

REALLY?

...well, here's one of the Hezbollah High Priests now.

You're hyperventilation again, Monkey. Why don't you try breathing into a bag?

You know, when you clowns launch one of your foam-at-the-mouth attacks against Justin7, Dark Horse, me, or any of the other level-headed posters here in the Tank, everyone else just sort of steps back and says, "Holy Shit."

And you're clueless in that you can't see this, right?

[durito]

so one minute you bitch that everyone in here is a frequentist (something i don´t see) and the next minute you are embracing dark horse. do you believe in waves too?

[mathdotcom]

Wrecktangle do you actually bet?

[MonkeyF0cker]

...well, here's one of the Hezbollah High Priests now.

You're hyperventilation again, Monkey. Why don't you try breathing into a bag?

You know, when you clowns launch one of your foam-at-the-mouth attacks against Justin7, Dark Horse, me, or any of the other level-headed posters here in the Tank, everyone else just sort of steps back and says, "Holy Shit."

And you're clueless in that you can't see this, right?

OMGLOLFART. You actually think that I care what you or anyone else thinks of me. How cute.

The three of you certainly are magical. In fact, if it weren't for posters of your creed, there would be zero entertainment here.

[Justin7]

Almost any quote out of context is meaningless.

I know for a fact that Justin7 is an efficient market guy, unless he flipped over in the last year.

BTW, where is he? He should have showed up by now.

I think major markets are efficient. NFL, NBA and MLB.

NCAAB is no longer in this category, at least at Pinny/Greek/Bm.

[Justin7]

Perhaps I should have been clearer. I no longer believe NCAAB is or was efficient.

[Winner_13]

We know they are efficient to a degree but the question is, are they getting more or less efficent?

[jgilmartin]

As Durito mentioned, why don't you just check the data? If you are going to be putting your own actual money at risk, wouldn't you rather know the answer to your question rather than trusting some strangers' opinions on an internet forum?

[Winner_13]

valid point however i wanted to have a discussion on it and why its getting more or less.

[big0mar]

Offshore books in general have gotten sharper. A Pinny lean has generally become an offshore lean now.

[SparJMU]

When you say the NFL market is Efficient.......Can someone give a precise definition of what you mean by "Efficient".

[Peregrine Stoop]

When you say the NFL market is Efficient.......Can someone give a precise definition of what you mean by "Efficient".

The current market price accurately reflects the possible outcome space

[antifoil]

yeah the thread got trolled when i asked that question.

i think efficiency mean if you take all the speads of number X and average the games margin of victory together it will be very close to X. it doesn't mean that the ATS record will land near 50 percent on spread X.

[tukkk]

mean absolute error-wise , what would you take as "efficient"?

[mattberg]

The current market price accurately reflects the possible outcome space

nicely worded. thanks.