Public Money vs. Sharp Money...

[PackerBacker]

If I am in the wrong forum for this question I do apologize. There just seems to be a lot of knowledge and savy in this think tank. Question: How do you tell the difference from public money moving a line vs sharp money? Thanks to those who reply.

[Dark Horse]

The earliest line movements are sharp. I wouldn't worry about it after the initial movement, unless you're betting rlm's. For the later lines I'd be more interested in shading by Pinny.

[ApricotSinner32]

The earliest line movements are sharp. I wouldn't worry about it after the initial movement, unless you're betting rlm's. For the later lines I'd be more interested in shading by Pinny.

Hard to say that this is always the case.

[Dark Horse]

What part? I gave one general statement and two personal opinions. lol The general statement would be very difficult to disprove. Personal opinions are just that.

[Krtica]

The earliest line movements are sharp. I wouldn't worry about it after the initial movement, unless you're betting rlm's. For the later lines I'd be more interested in shading by Pinny.

I think you`re rather wrong.
It depends on sports you play, as well as limits from the opening line to the closing line , because they arent the same all the way. (speaking for soccer)

[wantitall4moi]

no way to tell, and I am a big believer in no such thing. Some books will use 'respected' players bets as a benchmark, but that still doesnt mean theyre right more often than not. Because in some cases they might be taking a position to buy back on later. So they open up the books who move on them to exposure to buy backs.

But most of the time it is predicated on unknowns, the books overall limits, their total handle on that game, and how much money they have tied up in other things related to that game/move that help them avoid exposure.

Seriously, trying to get a 'sharp' gamblers plays is not a good idea, at least once they make them. best thing they are good for it taking a position (if they are respected enough or followed enough to move aline) and then look to get back against that first position once the dust settles. Thats why these reduced book joints got played against each other so much in the early 2000s. You got college games with massive spreads and almost zero risk. Things like Over 42 -104 and Under 47 -105 for the same game. NCAA hoops was even better. Problem with them was limits. Then they made some adjustments.

Despite all the stories you hear no one is going to pick one side of a game consistently enough to beat the game. Books 'respect' guys mostly because others follow them and it generates a tidal wave of money because most guys dont get it. So they get over exposed in a hurry, so they adjust to makeup for it. Not always enough to balance themselves, since, as I said they have to protect against the initial originator buying back, but enough to get a few guys caught on the wrong side of a move.

But to answer the original question there is no way to tell unless someone who you think is 'sharp' tells you what theyre beting.

[LT Profits]

Unless there is new information such as players out or weather, RLM is just about always an indication of sharp money.

[pedro803]

What is RLM?

[LT Profits]

Reverse Line Movement.

Example, 60% of bets are on Team A -7, and yet line moves to Team A -6.5. That would mean sharps are on Team B because the amount of money bet by the 40% is greater than the amount of money bet by the 60%.

[illfuuptn]

I don't really think the public moves lines much anymore.

no way to tell, and I am a big believer in no such thing. Some books will use 'respected' players bets as a benchmark, but that still doesnt mean theyre right more often than not. Because in some cases they might be taking a position to buy back on later. So they open up the books who move on them to exposure to buy backs.

But most of the time it is predicated on unknowns, the books overall limits, their total handle on that game, and how much money they have tied up in other things related to that game/move that help them avoid exposure.

Seriously, trying to get a 'sharp' gamblers plays is not a good idea, at least once they make them. best thing they are good for it taking a position (if they are respected enough or followed enough to move aline) and then look to get back against that first position once the dust settles. Thats why these reduced book joints got played against each other so much in the early 2000s. You got college games with massive spreads and almost zero risk. Things like Over 42 -104 and Under 47 -105 for the same game. NCAA hoops was even better. Problem with them was limits. Then they made some adjustments.

Despite all the stories you hear no one is going to pick one side of a game consistently enough to beat the game. Books 'respect' guys mostly because others follow them and it generates a tidal wave of money because most guys dont get it. So they get over exposed in a hurry, so they adjust to makeup for it. Not always enough to balance themselves, since, as I said they have to protect against the initial originator buying back, but enough to get a few guys caught on the wrong side of a move.

But to answer the original question there is no way to tell unless someone who you think is 'sharp' tells you what theyre beting.

[ ] Correct

[Inkwell77]

I don't really think the public moves lines much anymore.

Not really sure if you mean the square money doesn't move a line or that the public in general (including sharps) don't move a line.

Depends on the situation and sport. Boxing and UFC matches in Vegas, the public/sharp money definitely moves lines. Probably the easiest sport still left to scalp because the public has the power to actually move the lines.

[allin1]

Reverse Line Movement.

Example, 60% of bets are on Team A -7, and yet line moves to Team A -6.5. That would mean sharps are on Team B because the amount of money bet by the 40% is greater than the amount of money bet by the 60%.

but how can you know for sure those percentages? I guess only the bookies have that info but why would they give out the correct information regarding consensus?

[BernardMadoff]

but how can you know for sure those percentages? I guess only the bookies have that info but why would they give out the correct information regarding consensus?

Ive been saying this same thing for a while, besides even if it is correct, its still pretty much useless, unless you dont mind being a 50% bettor.

[TPowell]

I've used RLM with success in the past, but one of the assumptions is below and I find it tough to follow


Bettors who bet more should be trusted more than those who bet less

[pitman]

Think like a bookie, 70% on Team A but odds get better...
70% on team A
(-170)opening line, (-150) current line
This shows that the bookie wants people to keep piling on teamA

[Salmon Steak]

Well, floyd mayweather jr. bets big money and is likely not a sharp. I think it would be hard to know who really is sharp without being the bookie. I don't have the confidence in a line move to invest a large amount of money. Not a good option IMO, especially if you would like to bet larger amounts down the road.

[JR007]

guys from sports insights tried to get a consensus, on who was betting what ie (syndicate money) from the books, all contacted refused

[allin1]

guys from sports insights tried to get a consensus, on who was betting what ie (syndicate money) from the books, all contacted refused

It seems normal to me