Parlays

[AgainstAllOdds]

Now I know parlays and advantage betting usually dont go hand in hand. But I would like to describe something I have been doing for the past couple of months that has been somewhat profitable. Basically what it is, is using parlays with hedging. In order for this to work, the games should be scattered on the board, thus making the first game ALWAYS ending before the second (Second always ending before the third)

Example

(for simplicity) 20 cent lines, all line odds -110 All bets = $100

2 leg parlay +264 true parlay odds. First leg wins. You automatically bet the other side of the second leg of the parlay. Which yields a $73.33(25.22%) Risk free Profit.


3 leg Parlay +596 true parlay odds First leg wins Second leg wins. You automatically hedge the third leg...which yields a $231.43(49.81%) risk free profit

I usually use only about .5 units on these (if that) and then usually don’t go past 2 or 3 legs. However I have gone up to five which ended up being a winner (but not something I liked doing)

The point of this was so the "system" could get critiqued. I know there are most likely many underlying problems but thus far it has been good to me

[Wheell]

My Lord, the amount of things wrong with this are legion. The ONLY justification for doing this is to evade limits on a side while making some attempt to control variance on the games you are using for limit evasion.


What you really are doing is increasing your vig on the first play. If you feel the increased betting limit is worth it (and it may be), then by all means do so, but otherwise you are just hurting yourself.

[Ganchrow]

(for simplicity) 20 cent lines, all line odds -110 All bets = $100

2 leg parlay +264 true parlay odds. First leg wins. You automatically bet the other side of the second leg of the parlay. Which yields a $73.33(25.22%) Risk free Profit.

Perhaps I'm missing something here but by doing this you're just turning a single bet at -110 into a single bet at about -136.

If you lose your first leg you'll have lost $100. That's your total risk amount.

If you win the first leg you'll then have about $190.91 riding on the second leg. If you hedge that with another $190.91 bet on the alternate side of the second leg, you'll guarantee yourself a total profit of $190.91 * 100 110 - $100 ≈ $73.55.

That means you'd be risking $100 to win $73.55, which implies US-style odds of -10,000 73.55 ≈ -136. So even if you were able to pick the first game with 55% accuracy, an EV of 210 110 - 1 = +5%, using this method you'd reduce your EV to 236 136 - 1 ≈ -4.55%.

Similar logic should show why this is also reduces EV for larger parlays.

All you're doing here is placing a straight bet and then if that wins paying additional vig on twice the bet's proceeds. Paying additional vig for no actual gain (such as for example to circumvent limits -- but paying -136 on a side offered at -110 is generally a pretty big hurdle to overcome -- you'd need to hit at 57.62% just to break even) is never a good idea.

Although I may have misunderstood your description.

[AgainstAllOdds]

So basically I am just "taxing" myself. Ouch.