Assume a mathematically perfect and profitable baseball model that uses overlays that start at 1 run, and continues at intervals of 1 run. A team has an overlay of 0.99 run. My question is if you would bet it anyway, and, if so, why.
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Depends how profitable it is at 1 run.Comment -
Juice was too high, so I passed. Which, in itself, is not necessarily the right approach. If I was the Linesmaker and had a 0.99 run overlay, I might shade the line as well.Comment -
This is a huge assumption. If you had the perfect model, ordinarily you wouldn't waste time on marginal plays. But then the market would notice which plays you were working and react to those, which in kind you might then work the marginal plays to mess with the market to push it and perhaps even take the "wrong side", tactics we've seen BW do on occasion.Comment -
Painful.Comment
