I believe statistically about 20% of MLB games end in a 1 run decision.
I was thinking what if you would bet the RL on the favorite and the alternate RL on the Dog. You would treat it as an arb opportunity to determine the proper amounts to wager.
Either team would need to win by 2 in order to collect your arb and you would lose both bets 20% of the time.
Looking at the last 2 MLB games tonight, here is a breakdown:
Game #1
CIN/ARI
CIN RL +140
ARI Alt RL +200
Total Wagered $180.00
Arb calc shows net profit of $60 (33.33%)
Game #2
COL/LOS
LOS RL +160
COL Alt RL +200
Total Wagered $186.67
Arb calc shows net profit of $73.33 (39.29%)
Taking the average of those two wins it shows as a 36.31% ROI.
The average wager for each game was $183.34.
The average net profit for each game was $66.67
So if I look at this type of result over 100 games here is what I show:
Total Wagered: $18,334
20 games would have lost both bets ($3,667)
80 games would have would have had a net profit of $5,334
This would give me a net win of $1,667 whihc gives me a 9.09% ROI.
Can someone tell me where I am missing it? It can't be that easy to take advantage of the Alt RL.
Thanks!