MLB Alternate Run Line Strategy

[CaptNumbers]

I believe statistically about 20% of MLB games end in a 1 run decision.
I was thinking what if you would bet the RL on the favorite and the alternate RL on the Dog. You would treat it as an arb opportunity to determine the proper amounts to wager.
Either team would need to win by 2 in order to collect your arb and you would lose both bets 20% of the time.

Looking at the last 2 MLB games tonight, here is a breakdown:
Game #1
CIN/ARI
CIN RL +140
ARI Alt RL +200
Total Wagered $180.00
Arb calc shows net profit of $60 (33.33%)

Game #2
COL/LOS
LOS RL +160
COL Alt RL +200
Total Wagered $186.67
Arb calc shows net profit of $73.33 (39.29%)

Taking the average of those two wins it shows as a 36.31% ROI.
The average wager for each game was $183.34.
The average net profit for each game was $66.67
So if I look at this type of result over 100 games here is what I show:
Total Wagered: $18,334
20 games would have lost both bets ($3,667)
80 games would have would have had a net profit of $5,334
This would give me a net win of $1,667 whihc gives me a 9.09% ROI.

Can someone tell me where I am missing it? It can't be that easy to take advantage of the Alt RL.

Thanks!

[bztips]

Haven't checked your math, but fyi there were 656 one-run games in 2009, which is 27%, not 20%.

[RickySteve]

Worst screen name ever.

[jolmscheid]

Yeah Captain...that sounds like it would work!

[jolmscheid]

But can it really be that easy?

[jolmscheid]

So something like this works nicely for baseball, but is there any way of doing some type of bet like this for other sports??

[CaptNumbers]

Anyone else care to chime in. Anyone done any analysis on this?

[Meestermike]

2010 YTD 1-run games are running at a 30.2% pace as of yesterday. Hope this helps in your calculation

3449 games played in total
1041 of these games resulted in 1 run differential.

[CaptNumbers]

Thanks for the responses. I swear I saw other posts with 1 run games at 20%. If the one run decisions are that high, it definitely would not work.

[CaptNumbers]

Meester,

Where did you get your numbers. According to sportsdatabase.com ther ahve only been 540 - 1 run decisions so far for 2010.

[wrongturn]

Also the so called "arb" on road fav games are much smaller. The home fav games have larger arb because 1-run occurs more often. No free lunch I am afraid.

[sharpcat]

You can not take the average of the 2 numbers as a ROI % Since home teams and away teams win by 1 run at a completely different rate and each side has a separate price.

You would need to break your EV calculation into your 3 outcomes and each outcomes win expectancy.

Like all situations it is possible to find value in this scenario but I am not sure it is worth all of the effort since you will hardly ever find enough +EV plays to compensate for your work hunting for a profitable play.

[skrtelfan]

You can surely find edges like this for individual games but they're certainly not bettable blindly.

[HedgeHog]

Thanks for the responses. I swear I saw other posts with 1 run games at 20%. If the one run decisions are that high, it definitely would not work.

Home teams alone win by 1 in the neighborhood of 20%, perhaps that is what the other posts implied. If so, you left out the % of time the visitors win by 1.

[do5000]

somebody tried to run this as a chase (forget who). but he had to double or triple each bet each time based on the odds.

[mathdotcom]

Inevitably, even if he found some decent lines, odds are it is because one of the runlines is at a spectacular price and the other is the usual 20c juice line (if not more on an alternate RL). In that case he should just be betting the juicy runline and leaving the other one alone.

[Pancho sanza]

Horrible strategy, no chance in hell of making money with this approach.

[CaptNumbers]

Pancho,

Thanks for adding such detail to your comment. I am glad to see that you share your in depth analysis of why there is "no chance in hell of making money with this approach."

This should get you extra SBR points for helping everyone to ponder your thoughtful comments.

[TakeIt]

i'm assuming you're mostly (if not only) interested in the -1.5 runline. question: how often does the -1.5 team win by one run? (it will usually, if not always be the favorite, or in the case of a pic-em game most likely the home team.)

[TomG]

Stick to the -2.5 run lines for this. Games are decided by 2 runs less often.

[Pancho sanza]

Pancho,

Thanks for adding such detail to your comment. I am glad to see that you share your in depth analysis of why there is "no chance in hell of making money with this approach."

This should get you extra SBR points for helping everyone to ponder your thoughtful comments.

Your "strategy" didn't require an in depth analysis, but don't take my word for it, go learn the hard way.

[brittybritt586]

cool

[CaptNumbers]

The purpose of this forum is to challenge people and to get them to "think" about strategy. Maybe you should just stick to posting in the other forums where people don't care to think.

[LegitBet]

knew a guy tried this a few years ago, prob was if he got jammed with a few one run games in a row, it took too many 'winners' to make him whole.
great thinking outside the box though..bit of advice in this particular forum, which i had to learn being new myself:

regarding stategies and handicapping: Keep your questions general enough where a true sharpie won't mind answering in the abstract, but specific enough for you to gleen some help from.

think about it..people come here to shmooze, bitch, learn and sometimes teach...try to figure who's who and forget about the ones who are overly negative..besides, they may just not want a big discussion opened abut your topic..trust yourself and your data, and remember gamblers lie more than straights..
no offense to anyone here this is basic sound advice in general
be well

andrew

[CaptNumbers]

Andrew,

Thanks for the advice and the input. I am continuing to dive deeper into the data analysis myself right now. I am still quite a way from any one conclusion. Again, thanks for the input.

[sharpcat]

Andrew,

Thanks for the advice and the input. I am continuing to dive deeper into the data analysis myself right now. I am still quite a way from any one conclusion. Again, thanks for the input.

Make sure you pay attention to game totals while analyzing because game totals of 7 end by 1 run at a different % than totals of 10. Also pay attention to the moneyline.

As suggested I strongly caution against betting these blindly no matter what your analysis uncovers since numbers vary greatly from one game to the next. When making these plays you need to calculate your EV 1 game at a time which is very tedious work, unless you can write a program in excel to do it for you, by the time you conclude that you have +EV many times the lines you used have already moved against you. No wager should ever be placed without taking into consideration the price of the wager and the probability of success.

Historically games are decided by 1 run closer to 30% so I am not sure how large of a sample you used to draw your conclusions, but your number is so far off that I would suspect your sampling was no larger than 200 games.

[gryfyn1]

Yea, you premise is of --


The favorite wins by 1 run about 20-22% of the time -- About 30% of all games are decided by 1 run --

so is should be:

30 Wagers last - $5500
70 wagers Won + 5133

which come out to -267

[HedgeHog]

The purpose of this forum is to challenge people and to get them to "think" about strategy. Maybe you should just stick to posting in the other forums where people don't care to think.

I agree 100%. Your premise of 20% was way off and some were harsh in pointing this out. But look at the bright side, you found out w/o wasting actual $$$.

[CaptNumbers]

Sometimes I have a tendency to throw something out there before I gather all the facts myself. My analysis shows that it is definitely a solid 28% for games with 1 run decisions. This is for both home favorites and away favorites. I calculated the data for all seasons since 2005 and there is almost next to no variance from season to season.

I still have some other ideas but have to recoup and let my brain catch a breath before I move forward with them.

Thanks everyone who gave input, especially those who had thoughts that helped me think through things further.

I am sure this is not the end of my idea, but I am sure it has to go back to the drawing board and get completely overhauled.

[jorge1]

Yesterday someone asked same question in the MLB forum...here was my answer:

Ill run a quick test. Suppose you catch an average of RL = +150, and an average of RRL = + 150. So for each game you win you net +50 bucks. For each game you lose you net -200 (100 for one side, 100 for the other). Here are the results:

MON 9th: 6-3: 300 - 600 = -300
TUE 10th: 12-3: 600 - 600 = 0
WED 11th: 11-4: 550 - 800 = -250
THU 12th: 6-4: 300 - 800 = -500
FRI 13th: 7-8: 350 - 1600 = -1250
SAT 14th: 8-7: 400 - 1400 = -1000
SUN 15th: 12-3: 600 - 600 = 0
MON 16th: 6-2: 300 - 400 = -100
TUES 17th: 11-4: 550 - 800 = -250
WED 18th: 7-8: 350 -1600 = -1250

TOTAL: -4900 pesos...not too good of an idea amigo.

[jorge1]

1 run game scenario is around the 40% i believe...someone had the math yesterday and that is what they quoted, i may be wrong...I dont know where you guys get the 20%, but based just on last week, you would've had zero winning days...

i dont believe its a good idea, but here is another idea:

[jorge1]

Another idea (for that THEORY) is to play the +1.5 RL for every game...play the underdog...i think in the LONG RUN its not profitable, but lets see HYPOTHETICALLY how well it works...

For the period specified above we had a 86-46 record...86 games were won by 2 or more, 46 were by 1. Lets just HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING that the DOGS win 35% of the time of those 86 times the result is won by 2 or more... here are the results:

If we get a price of -150 (average) for the +1.5 RL, we win 86*.35= 30 games of the 86.

so record taking + RL is 56 - 76.

betting 100 each game at -150 odds:

56*150 = 8400
76*100 = 7600

7600-8400 = -1200

STILL LOSING...

CAP GAMES!

[Bluehorseshoe]

Worst screen name ever.

[stikymess]

Capt,

Read again what sharpcat's input was, dude is well sharp, for lack of a better word.

Throwing a curve ball if you still want to keep going over the "numbers" 5 Dimes offers favorites at -1, so this would lesson the blow as you would only lose one bet and the other would be a push. I've looked at this before and there can be great short runs, but then you hit a patch of 3 or 4 one run games that kills you.

Nothing seems to be better than good old handicapping. Best of luck.

[CaptNumbers]

Games that end in a 1 run decision

Thanks again for the input all...
As for the number of 1 run decisions, I did a thorough analysis myself using the database at sportsdatabase.com.
Here is what I show: (As you can see there is not a ton of variance from year to year)
All Games
Home Favorites Away Favorites
Year - Games - % Games - %
2005 - 1719 - 69.88% 741 - 30.12%
2006 - 1642 - 66.78% 817 - 33.22%
2007 - 1666 - 67.83% 790 - 32.17%
2008 - 1765 - 71.78% 694 - 28.22%
2009 - 1743 - 70.88% 716 - 29.12%
Total - 8535 - 69.43% 3758 - 30.57%

1 Run Decisions
Home Favorites Away Favorites
Year - Games - % Games - %
2005 - 504 - 29.32% 225 - 30.36%
2006 - 452 - 27.53% 227 - 27.78%
2007 - 464 - 27.85% 218 - 27.59%
2008 - 500 - 28.33% 189 - 27.23%
2009 - 480 - 27.54% 186 - 25.98%
Total - 2400 - 28.12% 1045 - 27.81%

I am left with the conclusion that it is safe to assume that 28% of the games end in a 1 run decision.