Calculating Edge in 3-way Soccer lines

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The fav longshot bias is a myth.

Nope, it's long since proven. Get any database of past results and odds, you can prove it in minutes.

[danshan11]

extra juice is the fave longshot bias dude! Gaze dont drink and post, you are starting to ramble out craziness like me, stop it!

[LT Profits]

Nope, it's long since proven. Get any database of past results and odds, you can prove it in minutes.

So you also disagree with Ganchrow's approach of distributing vig evenly to determine no-vig lines?

[danshan11]

yes I do if he thinks vig is distributed evenly, I think the fave longshot bias plays in big

[danshan11]

read pages 5-9 you will get a real good understanding of it

http://www.football-data.co.uk/The_Wisdom_of_the_Crowd_updated.pdf

[Gaze73]

Nope, it's long since proven. Get any database of past results and odds, you can prove it in minutes.

So if the efficient market knows about the fav longshot bias, why doesn't it adjust by demanding better prices on the dogs?

[danshan11]

the market is still sharp its just the margin is bigger, the actual efficiency of the market does not change.

[hyp3]

soccer has ties more than you expect.

its not an equal 33.3334% probability for each line

more of 50-50 either tie or not

[danshan11]

soccer has ties more than you expect.

its not an equal 33.3334% probability for each line

more of 50-50 either tie or not

the margin is mostly on the longest shot of the 3, 1 X or 2.
the draw (tie) happens as about often as it should when you look at long term data. a few years ago someone ran a study and they actually found some slight value to betting the draw on every match over a year or something on EPL, which is assumed by most to be a very efficient market.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

So if the efficient market knows about the fav longshot bias, why doesn't it adjust by demanding better prices on the dogs?

There's no EV throughout the odds range, it's just increasingly loaded on the dogs. At say 1.2 (-500) you'll be paying near zero juice, at 6.0) +500 you'll be paying 25%+

[hyp3]

the margin is mostly on the longest shot of the 3, 1 X or 2.
the draw (tie) happens as about often as it should when you look at long term data. a few years ago someone ran a study and they actually found some slight value to betting the draw on every match over a year or something on EPL, which is assumed by most to be a very efficient market.

I believe if you go hunting for ties throughout a few premier and secondary leagues, odds are the most strongest match ups may end in X rather than 1 or 2

example for tomorrow

LIVERPOOL - CHELSEA will be X odds are +250

doesnt hurt to risk $20-100

great return

[semibluff]

Vigged:
1: +713 = 1/8.13 = 12.30%
2: +416 = 1/5.16 = 19.38%
3: -250 = 2.5/3.5 = 71.43%
Overround Sum = 103.11%, so Vig = 3.11%

For No Vig, simply divide Vigged by 1.0311

1: 11.93%
2: 18.80%
3: 69.28%

This is correct and this is how total juice is calculated on an event. Juice is NOT applied differently to differing outcomes. Outcomes are constructed to the opinion of the odds compiler creating the book and the total book price is then calculated. Prices are then adjusted to alter the book price, (overround sum) to the bookie's desired overround figure.

[Gaze73]

There's no EV throughout the odds range, it's just increasingly loaded on the dogs. At say 1.2 (-500) you'll be paying near zero juice, at 6.0) +500 you'll be paying 25%+

So it's like I said. Basically bookies are afraid of sharps taking the dogs so they charge massive juice to cover their asses. If they distributed the vig fairly then there would be no fav longshot bias and dogs would have the same long term EV as favs.

[danshan11]

This is correct and this is how total juice is calculated on an event. Juice is NOT applied differently to differing outcomes. Outcomes are constructed to the opinion of the odds compiler creating the book and the total book price is then calculated. Prices are then adjusted to alter the book price, (overround sum) to the bookie's desired overround figure.

this is not how it is done, I know it should be that way but it just is not done that way. here is a spreadsheet if you need to see it

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Rdxwt7VHQ7OTrSbGxPQ_SF4Yq-6w0CgCUodULomv9zw/edit?usp=sharing

[danshan11]

So it's like I said. Basically bookies are afraid of sharps taking the dogs so they charge massive juice to cover their asses. If they distributed the vig fairly then there would be no fav longshot bias and dogs would have the same long term EV as favs.

its more they know that undisciplined bettors dont know how to money manage and bet more on dogs then they should and they exploit that and take advantage of the cerebral failure bettors have!

[danshan11]

I believe if you go hunting for ties throughout a few premier and secondary leagues, odds are the most strongest match ups may end in X rather than 1 or 2

example for tomorrow

LIVERPOOL - CHELSEA will be X odds are +250

doesnt hurt to risk $20-100

great return

I try to only bet things I assume I have +ev if I dont I stay away completely and the draw can or cant have value, depends on each game!