Calculating Edge in 3-way Soccer lines

**byronbb** · 03-18-11, 02:58 PM

look at the sports betting functions for excel in the tools section

**CHUBNUT** · 03-19-11, 03:28 PM

its impossible to know the no vig line exactly as you dont know where the book is emphasizing its vig. the only time you can say it with any degree of certainty is on a game where the asian h'cap is pick. pinnys opening price on the draw will then be a at no vig.

**losturmarbles** · 03-19-11, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

its impossible to know the no vig line exactly as you dont know where the book is emphasizing its vig. the only time you can say it with any degree of certainty is on a game where the asian h'cap is pick. pinnys opening price on the draw will then be a at no vig.

Then how do you know the book isn't "emphasizing" it's vig with a pick'em?

And why would the asian handicap have any relevance to the amount of vig on the draw?

**George7904** · 03-19-11, 06:08 PM

I couldn't get that Ganchrow excel template to load into my excel. I read the entire string and tried the advice, but it would not load. Anyone have another excel file or website? I found a vig caculator on the pinny calculator which gives the theoretical vig, but it doesn't backtrack it into a no juice line.

**losturmarbles** · 03-19-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by George7904

I couldn't get that Ganchrow excel template to load into my excel. I read the entire string and tried the advice, but it would not load. Anyone have another excel file or website? I found a vig caculator on the pinny calculator which gives the theoretical vig, but it doesn't backtrack it into a no juice line.

Just convert each US ml to probability. Then divide each line by the total of all three lines. That will give you a percentage or implied probability. That is the no vig line.

**Blax0r** · 03-19-11, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Just convert each US ml to probability. Then divide each line by the total of all three lines. That will give you a percentage or implied probability. That is the no vig line.

This is exactly how to do it; probably only the first step is a little tricky (make sure to use the EV formula).

**goblue12** · 03-19-11, 09:18 PM

No vig odds would be...

1: -200.56
X: 661.38
2: 396.6

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Then how do you know the book isn't "emphasizing" it's vig with a pick'em?

And why would the asian handicap have any relevance to the amount of vig on the draw?

When the asian h'cap is PK then the action on the draw is at absolute minimum due to bettors not looking for an edge in the 3 way market. So books like Pinny who have little wiggle room go no vig the draw knowing its highly unlikely they will be caught out and keep their margin for movement on the home and away.

If you need any other advice sonny just ask. Dont believe what all these model geeks on here keep spewing, its all fantasy.

**durito** · 03-20-11, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

When the asian h'cap is PK then the action on the draw is at absolute minimum due to bettors not looking for an edge in the 3 way market. So books like Pinny who have little wiggle room go no vig the draw knowing its highly unlikely they will be caught out and keep their margin for movement on the home and away.

If you need any other advice sonny just ask. Dont believe what all these model geeks on here keep spewing, its all fantasy.

you are dumber than bigdaddyQH

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by durito

you are dumber than bigdaddyQH

I got 380 pts off you in one hit

whos a dumb ****.

instead of piping into posts telling people they're wrong, why dont you answer the question yourself.

this place is full of smartasses like you who contribute zilch, constantly blowing hot air. why dont you and that don juan idiot get together for a weekend and bore each other to death and do everyone a favor.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 03:55 PM

Soccer markets are a weekly thing so its all about info dictating the movements. If Pinnys M/L is within 3% of the true line then nothing is expected, however a margin of over 4-5% would suggest you need to look into the injuries of both teams. Sometimes you will find there is no reason for the difference and if Pinny is laying that, then its worth considering a bet that way, likewise be cautious if the betting is the other way.

**durito** · 03-20-11, 04:01 PM

you need better translation software

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

When the asian h'cap is PK then the action on the draw is at absolute minimum due to bettors not looking for an edge in the 3 way market. So books like Pinny who have little wiggle room go no vig the draw knowing its highly unlikely they will be caught out and keep their margin for movement on the home and away.

If you need any other advice sonny just ask. Dont believe what all these model geeks on here keep spewing, its all fantasy.

Think about what you are saying. If a match has an asain handicap at pk, then the outcome is MORE likely to draw. Why would a sportsbook offer no vig odds on the draw when it's MORE likely to happen? Why would a sportsbook offer no vig odds to begin with?

**jgilmartin** · 03-20-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

I got 380 pts off you in one hit

whos a dumb ****.

instead of piping into posts telling people they're wrong, why dont you answer the question yourself.

this place is full of smartasses like you who contribute zilch, constantly blowing hot air. why dont you and that don juan idiot get together for a weekend and bore each other to death and do everyone a favor.

This coming from a guy who believes 'the opening line has already done the math for you'. Even if durito and donjuan never posted anything besides telling people they were wrong (which you will find isn't the case if you try using the search function), it would still be a better contribution than giving people completely wrong information, which you have done in this thread and others.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Think about what you are saying. If a match has an asain handicap at pk, then the outcome is MORE likely to draw. Why would a sportsbook offer no vig odds on the draw when it's MORE likely to happen? Why would a sportsbook offer no vig odds to begin with?

losturmarbles, I dont want you to lose your marbles but.

not everything in betting is mathematical, in fact its mostly psychological and regardless of odds, the draw in soccer is not a popular bet. Thats why years ago the books decided to invent asian h'cap which makes it easier for the bettor to understand but hides the significance of the draw. with the availability of betfair to lay, bettors are now looking for an edge in betting the draw at the best odds in order to maximize an asian bet on minus or plus 1/2 a goal, which increases the interest in the draw odds. outside that the draw is insignificant as a liability to a bookmaker, hence the reason for presenting it at no vig and holding their percentage on the other 2 and more likely bet propositions.

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

losturmarbles, I dont want you to lose your marbles but.

not everything in betting is mathematical, in fact its mostly psychological and regardless of odds, the draw in soccer is not a popular bet. Thats why years ago the books decided to invent asian h'cap which makes it easier for the bettor to understand but hides the significance of the draw. with the availability of betfair to lay, bettors are now looking for an edge in betting the draw at the best odds in order to maximize an asian bet on minus or plus 1/2 a goal, which increases the interest in the draw odds. outside that the draw is insignificant as a liability to a bookmaker, hence the reason for presenting it at no vig and holding their percentage on the other 2 and more likely bet propositions.

Betting may be psychological for some, but that doesn't change the probability of each outcome. Just because HEADS may be more popular than TAILS doesn't mean it's going to happen more or less than 50% of the time and it certainly doesn't mean a sportsbook is going to offer +100 odds on tails.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by jgilmartin

This coming from a guy who believes 'the opening line has already done the math for you'. Even if durito and donjuan never posted anything besides telling people they were wrong (which you will find isn't the case if you try using the search function), it would still be a better contribution than giving people completely wrong information, which you have done in this thread and others.

Gilly,
Ive read a lot of your posts and your not without sensibility. but your also falling into the trap of telling me I'm wrong without stating why and your alternatives, and thats whats wrong with these forums, too many jokers telling others their wrong without giving good reasons. Believe me ive been betting Soccer much longer than anyone on this site, my 79th bday is next month

so sit back and take in what I say.

if you have any questios then ask, thats what this forum is for.

Not for egotistic jokers with no social life to belittle people without giving good reasons.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:29 PM

sorry but I have to go now as I've pissed myself.

usually a sign that I need to go to bed

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Betting may be psychological for some, but that doesn't change the probability of each outcome. Just because HEADS may be more popular than TAILS doesn't mean it's going to happen more or less than 50% of the time and it certainly doesn't mean a sportsbook is going to offer +100 odds on tails.

losturmarbles, I love your naivety.

believe me, you need to look further than the math to win at sports betting. The human brain is better than any computer model, it just needs the emotional control that comes with it.

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

losturmarbles, I love your naivety.

believe me, you need to look further than the math to win at sports betting. The human brain is better than any computer model, it just needs the emotional control that comes with it.

Chubnut, I love your willful ignorance. You've made several claims in this thread and have yet to back them up. Maybe you should post some examples and I'll stop being so naive.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Chubnut, I love your willful ignorance. You've made several claims in this thread and have yet to back them up. Maybe you should post some examples and I'll stop being so naive.

Your a fiesty bastard, bit like my grandson.

lets look at a few of next weeks games. please dont argue with the numbers.

true lines for the following M/Ls

BIRMINGHAM 50.98
NEWCASTLE 59.23
WBA 51.59
WIGAN 43.55

most of them should be PK on the markets so the Pinny line for the draw will be no vig. come tuesday you use Pinnys draw line and work out the 3 way market.

update tuesday

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

Your a fiesty bastard, bit like my grandson.

lets look at a few of next weeks games. please dont argue with the numbers.

true lines for the following M/Ls

BIRMINGHAM 50.98
NEWCASTLE 59.23
WBA 51.59
WIGAN 43.55

most of them should be PK on the markets so the Pinny line for the draw will be no vig. come tuesday you use Pinnys draw line and work out the 3 way market.

update tuesday

can't find your matchups

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 05:52 PM

My Birmingham 50.98 equates to the brum vs bolton game in your caption. your caption shows a no vig line of brum 55.15% which has since moved to 53.81%. this basically tells you that at the moment there's no info out there affecting the true line. As the line progresses throughout the week you can tell whether its just general betting changing the odds or significant info, which will move the line at least 3%

**trixtrix** · 03-20-11, 06:01 PM

convert all the (3 in this case but it really does not matter if there are more) lines to their implied probability, add them up and subtract 100%, the remaining portion is the bookie's hold

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by trixtrix

convert all the (3 in this case but it really does not matter if there are more) lines to their implied probability, add them up and subtract 100%, the remaining portion is the bookie's hold

the minute you use the word implied, you're a lost soul in the real world of betting.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 06:22 PM

So just to finish off, once Pinny decides to issue they're 3 way line on the birmingham game, their draw odds will be at no vig. Unless the asian line moves over the 54% then the true line is a good pointer. 100% minus pinnys draw percentage x 50.98 = birminghams home price.
easy stuff really, no need for heiroglifics or math equations that making landing on the moon look easy.

**Melloweitsj** · 03-20-11, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

the minute you use the word implied, you're a lost soul in the real world of betting.

I fail to see why that is so.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Melloweitsj

I fail to see why that is so.

precisely

you will see the light when you start thinking more abstractively

**durito** · 03-20-11, 07:06 PM

how much $ you up lifetime chubby?

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by durito

how much $ you up lifetime chubby?

minus $ 1.35 mill

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

My Birmingham 50.98 equates to the brum vs bolton game in your caption. your caption shows a no vig line of brum 55.15% which has since moved to 53.81%. this basically tells you that at the moment there's no info out there affecting the true line. As the line progresses throughout the week you can tell whether its just general betting changing the odds or significant info, which will move the line at least 3%

You're not making any sense. Brum is not playing Bolton. Wigan isn't listed. And the only pick'em is Birmingham/Bolten at -128/118 or no vig odds of -122.39/+122.39 (55.03%/44.97%)

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 07:30 PM

For the OP:
An introduction to betting lines and percentages

**jgilmartin** · 03-20-11, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

You're not making any sense. Brum is not playing Bolton. Wigan isn't listed. And the only pick'em is Birmingham/Bolten at -128/118 or no vig odds of -122.39/+122.39 (55.03%/44.97%)

To be fair to him, Brum is playing Bolton. Brum is a nickname for Birmingham.

**losturmarbles** · 03-20-11, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by jgilmartin

To be fair to him, Brum is playing Bolton. Brum is a nickname for Birmingham.

Fair enough. I assumed Brum was WBA.