EV Check

[TMoney33]

Hello,

Sorry for the length of the following -

I came across an Office Square that seems to be +EV. The math seems right, but I can't believe this could be +EV. Would somebody please evaluate and see if I'm correct?

The first Square is for the PHI/WAS game tomorrow. Cost is $5 There is one winner for the final score. Prize is a $500 Superbowl square.

Here are the prizes for the SuperBowl Square
Final Score $20K
Reverse $10K
1st Half $5K
Reverse $2500
2st Half $4K
Reverse $1000
1st Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
2nd Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
3rd Quarter $1500
Reverse $1000
Bonus OT Only $2500
Reverse $2500

I know the odds are actually better than below, because I have more than one chance to win, but just to keep it simple (for me), I'm using the odds of hitting 1 prize.

So here's my math: Square one has a 1/100 chance of hitting the winner.
Square two has a 1/100 chance of hitting a winner.
.01X.01=.0001 or 999:1

Prize one pays 4000:1
Prize two pays 2000:1
Prize three pays 1000:1

All of those are individually better than my 999:1 odds. So, buying squares would be +EV correct?

In a different attempt, I added all non bonus prizes/Square1 Cost
$50,000/$5 = $10,000:$1 and again my odds are 999:1 right?

Thanks in advance.

[TMoney33]

Then just to make this more complicated, I was thinking. If you bought all 100 squares in game1 @ $5ea, you would be spending $500 to win a guaranteed $500 entry. Now the max prize in game2 only pays 40:1 while the odds are 99:1, so at what point does the EV start to turn negative?

Another thought - Game 2 alone should be even money or better right? They take in $50K and pay out $50K unless the game went to OT in which case they pay out $55K.

[yak merchant]

I don't have time to do the math, but I think your problem lies in the .01X.01=.0001 or 999:1 because .0001 = 9999:1

[TMoney33]

Stupid decimals always mess me up, but I think you're right. Even so though, there is still $50K to be won which compared to my $5 cost is 10,000:1 while the odds against are 9999:1. So if I'm at least correct on this part, then it would still be +EV right?

[splash]

what? first pool is $5 for a 1 in 100 shot to win $500. So no edge there. Second pool is $500 for a $50000 prize pool, so no edge. try to think of where the extra money could possibly come from..

the ev is
(20000*.01)+(10000*.01)+(5000*.01)+(2500 *.01)+(4000*.01)+(1000*.01)+(1500*.01)+( 1000*.01)+(1500*.01)+(1000*.01)+(1500*.0 1)+(1000*.01) = $500

Which unsurprisingly, since no one is taking a cut, is exactly the cost of the buyin. In fact, if the game were to go into OT, I have no idea where that extra money would come from. Who is going to pay that extra $5k out of pocket? I guess if you consider that extra $5k OT money, it's +EV even though I have no idea where it would come from.

[TMoney33]

Thanks Splash. The way you put it makes sense. So this is even money excluding the bonus. Thanks for explaining that.

The bonus is just a casino promo. I guess they figure the unlikely chance of it hitting is worth the advertising.