Why Aren't You Guys Concentrating on Sure Bets?

[Justin7]

Justin7, I have been ridiculing you for a long time too. There are posters who have been ridiculing me. It's all fun and games. You are clearly in the wrong here.

True, but your ridiculing is more subvert, and often has interesting points. While I may disagree with what you say, I don't read it and say "This forum is dumber having read it."

[Justin7]

I posted that on ANOTHER FORUM!!! Are you serious?? Holy Christ. You're that worried about your image? Unreal.

Come on Monkey, didn't you read my earlier warning about religion?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't think all markets are ultra-efficient, but NFL, MLB and NBA are IMO.

So you've never noticed anything odd that happens in all sports with big road favs? Not just NFL?

Ok. Now look at NBA. How do big favorites do straight up? Separate between road and home.

Here you go. Do you see the contradictions yet?

[sideloaded]

This is the guy who gets banned for a day? For misquoting? LMAO. This forum has all kinds of racist, sexist remarks posted by the minute. Touts scamming people and that idiot jjgold physically threatening members but mods spend their time banning this guy. UNREAL.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Justin,

I'm quite sure I know why you avoided talking about familiar derivatives such as halves, quarters, props and instead brought up 4-team NFL teasers. It's because IT'S THE ONLY THING THAT SUITS YOUR ABSURD CLAIM. Any other derivative wagers would be optimally wagered with much lower hold. Your statement said derivatives. 4-team NFL teasers are certainly not the entirety of anyone's derivative wagering. So how do you profess that a 20% hold is maintained in all derivative wagering by an individual? I can tell you how to get 250% hold. You might not win a wager for six months, but you have 250% hold! You're just squirming. Plain and simple.

[Justin7]

Justin,

I'm quite sure why you avoided talking about familiar derivatives such as halves, quarters, props and instead brought up 4-team NFL teasers. It's because IT'S THE ONLY THING THAT SUITS YOUR ABSURD CLAIM. Your statement said derivatives. 4-team NFL teasers are certainly not the entirety of anyone's derivative wagering. So how do you profess that a 20% hold is maintained in all derivative wagering by an individual? I can tell you how to get 250% hold. You might not win a wager for six months, but you have 250% hold! You're just squirming. Plain and simple.

I'm still waiting for your definition of derivatives. Since you decline to provide one, may I assume you accept mine?

I'm somewhat hesitant to discuss this in public, but I can probe. The downside is quasi-sharps might look more into these. How much can you get down on CPs in a year (with or without destroying outs)? What about ridiculously priced H2 lines on smaller markets? Or "good props" (with 20% holds before parlaying)?

[MonkeyF0cker]

True, but your ridiculing is more subvert, and often has interesting points. While I may disagree with what you say, I don't read it and say "This forum is dumber having read it."

LMAO. Ban yourself then, please.

[Data]

Here you go. Do you see the contradictions yet?

I don't. He might have been talking about differences in TT skewness for Home and Away teams which are not reflected in teasers prices that treat Home and Away teams the same. If we assume that the spread markets are efficient and notice kurtosis anomalies we have to conclude that this leads to teasaers inefficiencies.

[Justin7]

Here you go. Do you see the contradictions yet?

Thanks for using precise quotes. It does simplify discussions.

If I say ultra efficient, does that mean purely efficient? Of course not. If I meant that, I would say that. A perfectly efficient NFL market would have no opportunity at all. I make NFL plays, and put them on my spreadsheet. NFL plays are small percentage wise (relative to easier to beat markets), because the NFL is tough to beat. Lines are tight. Not perfect, but a lot more efficient than most offerings.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't. He might have been talking about differences in TT skewness for Home and Away teams which are not reflected in teasers prices that treat Home and Away teams the same. If we assume that the spread markets are efficient and notice kurtosis anomalies we have to conclude that this leads to teasaers inefficiencies.

If we assume an efficient market, that skewness would be reflected in the spread market though. Wouldn't you agree? The market treats them nearly identically.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Thanks for using precise quotes. It does simplify discussions.

If I say ultra efficient, does that mean purely efficient? Of course not. If I meant that, I would say that. A perfectly efficient NFL market would have no opportunity at all. I make NFL plays, and put them on my spreadsheet. NFL plays are small percentage wise (relative to easier to beat markets), because the NFL is tough to beat. Lines are tight. Not perfect, but a lot more efficient than most offerings.

Then you proved my point on efficiency. Thank you for finally admitting it.

[Data]

If we assume an efficient market, that skewness would be reflected in the spread market though. Wouldn't you agree?

I would not. I am talking about team total (TT) kurtosis. The spread market is indifferent to it.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I would not. I am talking about team total (TT) kurtosis. The spread market is indifferent to it.

How can the ML conversion for home/away teams be nearly identical with differing skews?

[Data]

How can the ML conversion for home/away teams be nearly identical with differing skews?

Admittedly, I know nothing about NFL conversion. I do know it is quite different for NBA and I extrapolate that it must be different for NFL as well.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Admittedly, I know nothing about NFL conversion. I do know it is quite different for NBA and I extrapolate that it must be different for NFL as well.

It is reflected in the NBA markets. It is not reflected in NFL markets.

[Data]

It is not reflected in NFL markets.

If we take this as a fact then:
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is the same then the past good performance of H teasers is due to variance and there is no reason to think that going forward H teasers will perform better than A teasers.

- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is different but is not reflected in spread/ml pairs of lines (conversion) then it shows that NFL market is consistently inefficient.

It seems that your statement should be presented in a much more convincing manner because it leads to significant conclusions none of which intuitively seems to be true. Well, for me, the latter is actually intuitively true but the argument would be to obvious and yet significant to be overlooked in previous discussions on market efficiency.

[skrtelfan]

Where?

Giants -7 ML -320 (road Fav)
Packers -7.5 ML -350 (home fav)

Of course a favorite of 7.5 is going to be a higher ML favorite than a favorite of -7. As I write this, Pinnacle is dealing identical lines on NYG and GB, both are -7 -110 with the other side +7 +102, and the corresponding MLs are NYG -316/SEA +278 and DAL +293/GB -335. In general, given the same spread on an away dog and a home dog, the away dog will be a slightly higher ML dog than the home dog.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If we take this as a fact then:
- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is the same then the past good performance of H teasers is due to variance and there is no reason to think that going forward H teasers will perform better than A teasers.

- if we assume that the scoring for H and for A is different but is not reflected in spread/ml pairs of lines (conversion) then it shows that NFL market is consistently inefficient.

It seems that your statement should be presented in a much more convincing manner because it leads to significant conclusions none of which intuitively seems to be true. Well, for me, the latter is actually intuitively true but the argument would be to obvious and yet significant to be overlooked in previous discussions on market efficiency.

Precisely, Data. Although, I would prefer that people draw their own conclusions rather than me spoon-feeding it to them.

[Data]

Of course a favorite of 7.5 is going to be a higher ML favorite than a favorite of -7. As I write this, Pinnacle is dealing identical lines on NYG and GB, both are -7 -110 with the other side +7 +102, and the corresponding MLs are NYG -316/SEA +278 and DAL +293/GB -335. In general, given the same spread on an away dog and a home dog, the away dog will be a slightly higher ML dog than the home dog.

This example is inconclusive. I looked at the board and I saw that Matchbook along with many books all have identical ml's while The Greek offers NYG -350/SEA +290 and DAL +270/GB -330 tilting in the opposite direction. What really surprised me is that, for these games, most of the books have identical pairs of spread and ml while the totals for these two games were 6 points apart. This cannot be right.

[Thremp]

I think the forum is dumber for Justin7's comments ITT.

[sideloaded]

I think the forum is dumber for Justin7's comments ITT.

[byronbb]

I think many advantage players are closet/unconscious degens. Arbs are boring. Swings from full kelly stake betting is not.

[ACoochy]

I think many advantage players are closet/unconscious degens. Arbs are boring. Swings from full kelly stake betting is not.

Please learn to think before you talk....