Why Aren't You Guys Concentrating on Sure Bets?

[MonkeyF0cker]

20%? LOL. Come on.

[raiders72001]

Both 20% and 4% seem high to me.

[raiders72001]

The difference is Raiders doesn't have the slightest intelligence you mentioned.

True, I'm not that smart but GUARANTEE that I'm smarter than you.

[donjuan]

True, I'm not that smart but GUARANTEE that I'm smarter than you.

Will you be regaling us with your "key numbers in basketball" shtick again?

[lovehbk]

eeee,i just see the comments.hahahh

[patswin]

interesting thread

[Justin7]

20%? LOL. Come on.

Monkey,

Do you really not know what's going on? I thought you were mainly in Vegas.

[Justin7]

Both 20% and 4% seem high to me.

Raiders,

What's your EV on a 4-team 6-point BS teaser, excluding road favs?

[Pancho sanza]

Raiders,

What's your EV on a 4-team 6-point BS teaser, excluding road favs?

Teasing favs down? Dogs up?

Whats the total? Whats the market line?

Come on Justy, you know that can't be answered without more info.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey,

Do you really not know what's going on? I thought you were mainly in Vegas.

Yes, I'm in Vegas and I know exactly what's going on. You talking out of your ass.

[Justin7]

Yes, I'm in Vegas and I know exactly what's going on. You talking out of your ass.

Please, do enlighten me Monkey. Where are you failing?

Can you not find 20% EV parlays?

Or can you find them, and not get enough volume?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Can I find them? Yes. Am I going to strictly bet them and forgo EG? No. Would I need a team to do it either way? Absolutely not.

[Thremp]

I would wager money that J7 is lying.

[Justin7]

I would wager money that J7 is lying.

Ok Thremp, let's get your take. You can bet in Vegas and any offshore book. Where is the fallacy?
1. You can find 20% EV parlays
2. You can bet them with volume

Monkey,

I'm not saying you forgo other opportunities. There are a gazillion ways to make small amounts of money. The real limiting factor is a person's time and energy.

[Justin7]

Teasing favs down? Dogs up?

Whats the total? Whats the market line?

Come on Justy, you know that can't be answered without more info.

Read closer. All the info you need is there.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey,

I'm not saying you forgo other opportunities. There are a gazillion ways to make small amounts of money. The real limiting factor is a person's time and energy.

Actually, that's precisely what you're saying when you talk about a 20% hold.

[Justin7]

Actually, that's precisely what you're saying when you talk about a 20% hold.

No, I don't think I said that. And I haven't experienced that either. There are certainly some things you can do that will win and draw attention (like round-robining bad lines), but there are plenty of others that go unnoticed for years.

[FreeFall]

why i know several people that have done that

[MonkeyF0cker]

No, I don't think I said that. And I haven't experienced that either. There are certainly some things you can do that will win and draw attention (like round-robining bad lines), but there are plenty of others that go unnoticed for years.

It's implicit, Justin. Show me a parlay with 20% hold and I'll show you a method of higher EG with vastly lower hold.

[Justin7]

It's implicit, Justin. Show me a parlay with 20% hold and I'll show you a method of higher EG with vastly lower hold.

I'll bite.

How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
Risk $100, to win $300
Minnesota -2
Atlanta -2.5
Green Bay -1.5
Kansas City +8

[Emily_Haines]

too hard to move money these days and with the fee's associated with it it is just not worth it.

risk of not getting paid and betting limits have an impact as well

I would rather just have my money riding on a good +EV bet rather than trying to make a 2-5% sure profit.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Umm. Are we talking about parlays or teasers, Justin? WTF.

[Justin7]

Umm. Are we talking about parlays or teasers, Justin? WTF.

A teaser is a parlay.

[MonkeyF0cker]

A teaser is a parlay.

Your statement about 20% hold was for DERIVATIVES. Are we squirming, Justin?

[Justin7]

I define a derivative as any wager dependent on a game spread or total, that is not a straight wager on that. Teasers are certainly derivatives.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I define a derivative as any wager dependent on a game spread or total, that is not a straight wager on that. Teasers are certainly derivatives.

And how many 4-team derivative parlays (LOL! i.e. teasers) do you wager per year? And this is the entirety of your DERIVATIVE wagering? You need a team that you can trust for THIS?!? LMAO.

I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.

[Justin7]

And how many 4-team derivative parlays (LOL! i.e. teasers) do you wager per year? And this is the entirety of your DERIVATIVE wagering? You need a team that you can trust for THIS?!? LMAO.

I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.

Monkey,

You have an amazing aptitude for making up things and quoting me with it. If you want to quote me, please use the /quote/ function going forward.

Of course this is not the entirety of what I bet. 95% of what I bet, I would never discuss on a public board. I chose that teaser example, because it fit the point, and I'm not giving anything away by discussing it.

Back to the original point... would you care to use my example, or give your own where you lower your hold but increase EG?

[uva3021]

I'll bite.

How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
Risk $100, to win $300
Minnesota -2
Atlanta -2.5
Green Bay -1.5
Kansas City +8

based on history 3/1 in this scenario is not EV, though you said yourself you exclude road favorites, which may create EV haven't looked

[Justin7]

based on history 3/1 in this scenario is not EV, though you said yourself you exclude road favorites, which may create EV haven't looked

You think that is a -EV teaser? You could start a whole thread on that...

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you attack derivatives, you can hold 20%+ on medium volume.

Here's a quote! A few 4-team NFL teasers per week is not medium volume.

As for your ridiculous example, I'll get to it later when I get home.

[Thremp]

If you're going to claim you meant betting low EG teasers, I retract my previous statement. Though year after year is certainly lol.

I would contend that anyone doing what you suggest is likely an idiot though.

[uva3021]

You think that is a -EV teaser? You could start a whole thread on that...

the data I just ran suggest EV would be closer to 3.5/1

it depends if you filter the data through key numbers and what not, and all of those plays are based on negotiating key numbers, hence GB -1.5 rather than Dallas +13.5

[Justin7]

Here's a quote! A few 4-team NFL teasers per week is not medium volume.

As for your ridiculous example, I'll get to it later when I get home.

Monkey,

It's been fun trying to engage you. If you ever decide you're serious about discussing theory, and you're ready to quit drawing ridiculously wrong conclusions about what I do, we can resume.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Monkey,

It's been fun trying to engage you. If you ever decide you're serious about discussing theory, and you're ready to quit drawing ridiculously wrong conclusions about what I do, we can resume.

LOL. Please. I'm just going on the bullshit you're trying to feed us. If the entirety of your 20% DERIVATIVE HOLD argument rests on 4-team NFL teasers, you're not fooling ANYONE with a clue. Cut the shit already. It's getting old.

[sideloaded]

LOL. Please. I'm just going on the bullshit you're trying to feed us. If the entirety of your 20% DERIVATIVE HOLD argument rests on 4-team NFL teasers, you're not fooling ANYONE with a clue. Cut the shit already. It's getting old.