20%? LOL. Come on.
Why Aren't You Guys Concentrating on Sure Bets?
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MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#36Comment -
raiders72001Senior Member
- 08-10-05
- 11116
#37Both 20% and 4% seem high to me.Comment -
lovehbkRestricted User
- 11-03-10
- 1
#40eeee,i just see the comments.hahahhComment -
patswinSBR MVP
- 09-05-06
- 1794
#41interesting threadComment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
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MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#47Can I find them? Yes. Am I going to strictly bet them and forgo EG? No. Would I need a team to do it either way? Absolutely not.Comment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#48I would wager money that J7 is lying.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#49Ok Thremp, let's get your take. You can bet in Vegas and any offshore book. Where is the fallacy?
1. You can find 20% EV parlays
2. You can bet them with volume
Monkey,
I'm not saying you forgo other opportunities. There are a gazillion ways to make small amounts of money. The real limiting factor is a person's time and energy.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
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Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#52No, I don't think I said that. And I haven't experienced that either. There are certainly some things you can do that will win and draw attention (like round-robining bad lines), but there are plenty of others that go unnoticed for years.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#54It's implicit, Justin. Show me a parlay with 20% hold and I'll show you a method of higher EG with vastly lower hold.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#55
How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
Risk $100, to win $300
Minnesota -2
Atlanta -2.5
Green Bay -1.5
Kansas City +8Comment -
Emily_HainesSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-09
- 15917
#56too hard to move money these days and with the fee's associated with it it is just not worth it.
risk of not getting paid and betting limits have an impact as well
I would rather just have my money riding on a good +EV bet rather than trying to make a 2-5% sure profit.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#57Umm. Are we talking about parlays or teasers, Justin? WTF.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#60I define a derivative as any wager dependent on a game spread or total, that is not a straight wager on that. Teasers are certainly derivatives.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#61
I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#62And how many 4-team derivative parlays (LOL! i.e. teasers) do you wager per year? And this is the entirety of your DERIVATIVE wagering? You need a team that you can trust for THIS?!? LMAO.
I'm not at home to run numbers either, but one 4-team teaser with those sides is probably not optimal anyway.
You have an amazing aptitude for making up things and quoting me with it. If you want to quote me, please use the /quote/ function going forward.
Of course this is not the entirety of what I bet. 95% of what I bet, I would never discuss on a public board. I chose that teaser example, because it fit the point, and I'm not giving anything away by discussing it.
Back to the original point... would you care to use my example, or give your own where you lower your hold but increase EG?Comment -
uva3021SBR Wise Guy
- 03-01-07
- 537
#63I'll bite.
How would you change your play on this NFL Parlay, available at bookmaker?
Risk $100, to win $300
Minnesota -2
Atlanta -2.5
Green Bay -1.5
Kansas City +8Comment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#66If you're going to claim you meant betting low EG teasers, I retract my previous statement. Though year after year is certainly lol.
I would contend that anyone doing what you suggest is likely an idiot though.Comment -
uva3021SBR Wise Guy
- 03-01-07
- 537
#67
it depends if you filter the data through key numbers and what not, and all of those plays are based on negotiating key numbers, hence GB -1.5 rather than Dallas +13.5Comment -
Justin7SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-31-06
- 8577
#68
It's been fun trying to engage you. If you ever decide you're serious about discussing theory, and you're ready to quit drawing ridiculously wrong conclusions about what I do, we can resume.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#69LOL. Please. I'm just going on the bullshit you're trying to feed us. If the entirety of your 20% DERIVATIVE HOLD argument rests on 4-team NFL teasers, you're not fooling ANYONE with a clue. Cut the shit already. It's getting old.Comment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
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