The misunderstanding of "beating the closing line."

[Monte]

This topic started interesting, and slowly faded away on me =p
The bottom line is that arbing is prolly better for 90% of the ppl, because they cannot take long loosing streaks, and go on tilt or do something stupid. Yes even so called "pros", i've heared/seen enuf stories, we are all human and just like we know that smoking is stupid, guess what? we still do it.
Justin is prolly among the 10% that can do it.

So arbing is pissing away money on sharp/steam bets for a few ppl with nerves of steel, true.
Because one thing is for sure, if you want to beat the arbing value you have to bet larger amounts, since arbers don't know any limits or fears usually (other than stupid mistakes due to lack of attention i.e.).
So as MonkeyF0cker said: it all depends on the people and the bets, the times they are placed, with strong backup as other books move or not, whatever really.

[Flying Dutchman]

uva: Random? Yeah, I could buy that.

I'm not buying efficient, tho.

[Flight]

Edward from RAS has a strong take on BTCL:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-plays/736495-ras.html

RAS records from last CBB season against our release line and the closing line are posted below.

First a word of advice. It should be every sports bettors goal to BEAT the closing line. Making bets that are consistently equal or worse than the closing line will most likely lead you to poor long term results, even when following RAS.

We are very upfront on our website about the difficulties and challenges involved in playing RAS picks at our release line, but it is NOT impossible. It can and is done by many on a fairly consistent basis. It simply requires adequate outs, some experimentation, and being well prepared to act quickly.

2009-10 CBB Season

Vs RAS Release Line:
Overall: 265-188, 58.50%, +61.10 units
Sides: 137-112, 55.02%, +16.70 units
Totals: 128-76, 62.75%, +44.40 units

Vs Closing Line
Overall: 244-208, 53.98%, +15.50 units
Sides: 128-122, 51.20%, -5.90 units
Totals: 116-86, 57.43%, +21.40 units

Keep in mind this is against a consensus closing line. Results would improve with line shopping and could improve or worsen depending on actual market timing. Beating line movement, market timing, and line shopping are discussed at length in the RAS User Guide on our website.

Hope that helps.

Edward

[Wrecktangle]

What Edward seems to not talk about is: He is one of the prime players MOVING that college FB line. So, as he originates, and the market views his opinions favorably, the closing line will close favoring him. i.e. if the market is reacting to you, you will most likely BTCL even when you are losing. This happened to Dr Bob a few years ago.

[jonny]

What Edward seems to not talk about is: He is one of the prime players MOVING that college FB line. So, as he originates, and the market views his opinions favorably, the closing line will close favoring him. i.e. if the market is reacting to you, you will most likely BTCL even when you are losing. This happened to Dr Bob a few years ago.

all he's doing is showing the difference in results.

[Justin7]

What Edward seems to not talk about is: He is one of the prime players MOVING that college FB line. So, as he originates, and the market views his opinions favorably, the closing line will close favoring him. i.e. if the market is reacting to you, you will most likely BTCL even when you are losing. This happened to Dr Bob a few years ago.

He can only move it if there is no opposition. You might occasionally see "bounce-back" when the market disagreed with a particular pick. When he smashes the line though, he's on the right side.

[Dark Horse]

Didn't/don't JM's BS picks often change a NCAAB total line by 6 or so points? People get on the other side because they know he's full of sh*t. In case of RAS, people know he's sharp. Why go against him? But that knowledge is still not the same as him being on the right side. The mass following of touts, as far as line movement, should preferably be in a category by itself. They're line movements based on overall hype (JM) or reputation (RAS), rather than the quality of every individual pick.

[WendysRox]

OP - you are wasting your breath (or fingers)... Everyone around here seems to think that line=probability. Reminds me of something I once heard - "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion, still." Sheep, they are. Lemmings, even. They will follow each other to their ruin, praising each others' intelligence the entire time.

GL

[WendysRox]

What Edward seems to not talk about is: He is one of the prime players MOVING that college FB line. So, as he originates, and the market views his opinions favorably, the closing line will close favoring him. i.e. if the market is reacting to you, you will most likely BTCL even when you are losing. This happened to Dr Bob a few years ago.

good point

[roasthawg]

What Edward seems to not talk about is: He is one of the prime players MOVING that college FB line. So, as he originates, and the market views his opinions favorably, the closing line will close favoring him. i.e. if the market is reacting to you, you will most likely BTCL even when you are losing. This happened to Dr Bob a few years ago.

So it's possible for the market to move the line the wrong way??

[jgilmartin]

OP - you are wasting your breath (or fingers)... Everyone around here seems to think that line=probability. Reminds me of something I once heard - "A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion, still." Sheep, they are. Lemmings, even. They will follow each other to their ruin, praising each others' intelligence the entire time.

GL

Wendys - Pokerjoe is not agreeing with your belief that closing lines are no more efficient than opening lines.

I'm amazed that people think I'm arguing against BTCL as a reflection of the skills useful for making money in this biz, or that others think I'm saying the CL isn't on average more efficient than the OL

[WendysRox]

Wendys - Pokerjoe is not agreeing with your belief that closing lines are no more efficient than opening line.

I never said anything regarding opening vs closing lines. I am merely saying that the market is not efficient (e.g. line != probability); and I think he agrees with that - or am I misunderstanding him?

[WendysRox]

So it's possible for the market to move the line the wrong way??

EXACTLY! By George, I think he's GOT IT!

[jgilmartin]

I never said anything regarding opening vs closing lines. I am merely saying that the market is not efficient (e.g. line != probability); and I think he agrees with that - or am I misunderstanding him?

Perhaps I misunderstood you in a previous thread, in that case. Suppose this scenario:

An MLB game's opening line is:
Boston +100
New York -110

The closing line for the game is:
Boston -110
New York +100

Which team is more likely to win?

[roasthawg]

Perhaps I misunderstood you in a previous thread, in that case. Suppose this scenario:

An MLB game's opening line is:
Boston +100
New York -110

The closing line for the game is:
Boston -110
New York +100

Which team is more likely to win?

Not enough information.

[WendysRox]

Perhaps I misunderstood you in a previous thread, in that case. Suppose this scenario:

An MLB game's opening line is:
Boston +100
New York -110

The closing line for the game is:
Boston -110
New York +100

Which team is more likely to win?

I am glad you asked. I will answer with another question - what makes you think that I can predict the winner based on what the line is?

[jgilmartin]

I am glad you asked. I will answer with another question - what makes you think that I can predict the winner based on what the line is?

I am not asking you to pick the winner. I am asking you to asses the probability of winning for each team. Let's put it another way. In major markets, which of these options do you believe to be most accurate:

A. The implied probability of opening lines is closer to the true probability of the event occurring (opening lines are more accurate).
B. The implied probability of closing lines is closer to the true probability of the event occurring (closing lines are more accurate).
C. The are both equal in their probability (they are both equal in their accuracy).

This technically should all have the tag 'ON AVERAGE' applied to it.

[WendysRox]

jgilmartin - How about this: say that you have done your capping, analysis, homework, etc. and you have come up with a likelihood of Boston winning at a 64% clip. When you check the line, it is Boston -110. What do you bet and why?


I'm in the mood to write, so I'll add this... I think most people on here would immediately start second guessing their numbers, changing their point of view, etc. I think this is the wrong way of thinking. I mean, the game hasn't even started and you are already wondering where you messed up? Damn, guys. Have a little faith in yourselves. With that said, if you have gone 3-17 in your last 20 games, then YES, I can see re-evaluating how you are coming up with your predictions. But to blindly take a line as any kind of indicator of probability blows my mind. I've said this many times on here and had many sheep disagree with me. I guess it's one of those religion-type questions. Either you believe line=probability, or you don't.

So, how do I cap? I run a database that predicts the outcome of every game. Built into this database is a type of confidence calculator. So, I have 6-10 games per week where I feel the market (i.e. the line) is far enough away from what I believe will actually occur that I have enough +EV to risk my money. That's it! It's so simple - find market errors and capitalize on them. This is what Warren Buffet does, so it's good enough for me.

[WendysRox]

I am not asking you to pick the winner. I am asking you to asses the probability of winning for each team. Let's put it another way. In major markets, which of these options do you believe to be most accurate:

A. The implied probability of opening lines is closer to the true probability of the event occurring (opening lines are more accurate).
B. The implied probability of closing lines is closer to the true probability of the event occurring (closing lines are more accurate).
C. The are both equal in their probability (they are both equal in their accuracy).

This technically should all have the tag 'ON AVERAGE' applied to it.

Sorry, I was writing the above post while you were writing this. I'll try to slow down and let you reply before I post again so we are not getting ahead of each other.

Anyway, to answer this question...

In order for me to know which line was more accurate, I'd have to have an indication of true probability. Given solely a line, I don't have any way of knowing actual probability. Therefore, I can't answer this question.

Think about it this way... what if I give the entire world the following wager: there is life on other planets +1000, there is not life on other planets -1400. What would you bet, and why? How could you possibly know what to bet based solely on the line?

How about this one: In my pocket, I have a marble. It is either red or blue. I opened the line last week at red -140 and blue +130. But, since then, I have taken in 20,000 bets and the lines have moved to red -160 and blue +150. What would you bet, and why? If you are making wagers based solely on the line, then you are basically taking the advice of everyone else who has bet on that event. And, what makes you so sure that everyone else is smarter than you?

I haven;t proofread this, so I hope that my ideas, etc are clear..

[WendysRox]

Perhaps I misunderstood you in a previous thread, in that case. Suppose this scenario:

An MLB game's opening line is:
Boston +100
New York -110

The closing line for the game is:
Boston -110
New York +100

Which team is more likely to win?

And just to be a wise guy.. it sure seemed like you were asking me to predict a winner...

[jgilmartin]

And just to be a wise guy.. it sure seemed like you were asking me to predict a winner...

It might be semantics, but I wasn't. For example, when you bet a +200 underdog, you are not picking them to win. You are betting that you believe that they are more likely to win than the implied probability of the odds, in this case, 33.33%.

[WendysRox]

It might be semantics, but I wasn't. For example, when you bet a +200 underdog, you are not picking them to win. You are betting that you believe that they are more likely to win than the implied probability of the odds, in this case, 33.33%.

Tru Dat.. I knew what you meant, just being funny.


Anyway, what do you think about the other things we have discussed? I'm not opposed to being educated, I'm just pretty convinced that I'm not wrong on this topic (ya think? lol)

[jgilmartin]

jgilmartin - How about this: say that you have done your capping, analysis, homework, etc. and you have come up with a likelihood of Boston winning at a 64% clip. When you check the line, it is Boston -110. What do you bet and why?


I'm in the mood to write, so I'll add this... I think most people on here would immediately start second guessing their numbers, changing their point of view, etc. I think this is the wrong way of thinking. I mean, the game hasn't even started and you are already wondering where you messed up? Damn, guys. Have a little faith in yourselves. With that said, if you have gone 3-17 in your last 20 games, then YES, I can see re-evaluating how you are coming up with your predictions. But to blindly take a line as any kind of indicator of probability blows my mind. I've said this many times on here and had many sheep disagree with me. I guess it's one of those religion-type questions. Either you believe line=probability, or you don't.

So, how do I cap? I run a database that predicts the outcome of every game. Built into this database is a type of confidence calculator. So, I have 6-10 games per week where I feel the market (i.e. the line) is far enough away from what I believe will actually occur that I have enough +EV to risk my money. That's it! It's so simple - find market errors and capitalize on them. This is what Warren Buffet does, so it's good enough for me.

Sorry, I was writing the above post while you were writing this. I'll try to slow down and let you reply before I post again so we are not getting ahead of each other.

Anyway, to answer this question...

In order for me to know which line was more accurate, I'd have to have an indication of true probability. Given solely a line, I don't have any way of knowing actual probability. Therefore, I can't answer this question.

Think about it this way... what if I give the entire world the following wager: there is life on other planets +1000, there is not life on other planets -1400. What would you bet, and why? How could you possibly know what to bet based solely on the line?

How about this one: In my pocket, I have a marble. It is either red or blue. I opened the line last week at red -140 and blue +130. But, since then, I have taken in 20,000 bets and the lines have moved to red -160 and blue +150. What would you bet, and why? If you are making wagers based solely on the line, then you are basically taking the advice of everyone else who has bet on that event. And, what makes you so sure that everyone else is smarter than you?

I haven;t proofread this, so I hope that my ideas, etc are clear..

Can't respond to all this now except to say that we are not even talking about the same subject here. I am talking about the efficiency of opening lines vs the efficiency of closing lines, and attempting to confirm that you really believe that lines really have absolutely no correlation to probability, and that major markets are 100% inefficient. I am definitely not suggesting betting based solely on the line, or giving any betting advice for that matter.

[u21c3f6]

Perhaps I misunderstood you in a previous thread, in that case. Suppose this scenario:

An MLB game's opening line is:
Boston +100
New York -110

The closing line for the game is:
Boston -110
New York +100

Which team is more likely to win?

Basing my selection solely on the information above, Boston is more likely to win because the overall closing market is quite efficient.

However, it is also the fact that the overall closing market is quite efficient that creates the "misunderstanding" problem IMO. From conversations and posts on this forum, there are those that tend to think of the closing line as the probabilities for that individual event. If that was true, then no one using any system, information etc that wagers on the closing lines could possibly beat those %'s in the long term (with the exception of some very lucky outlier).

Let me describe how I "see" the (any) market(s). For sports wagering let's look at ATS wagers and to simplify let's assume that those wagers are no-vig at +100. Over a very large sample of wagers, the %'s will fall pretty close to 50-50. Now let's look at one side such as the dog side. Again, overall, the dogs will win ATS approx 50% of the time. If the market was totally efficient, then no criteria that I apply to any subset of games could produce a win % much different than 50%. I would like to think that most would disagree with this regardless of whether or not they are actually able to win at a greater % than 50%.

My point is that if you find the "right" criteria, you should be able to break down all the games into various subsets that have different win/loss %'s such that the resulting subsets look more like a bell curve than a static 50% chance. This means to me that the individual contest may or may not conform to the overall statistics. The mistake I think players make is confusing a true random selection with selections that the market "gives" them which is not random.

Hope that makes sense. Again, most of these topics usually require a lot more thorough explanation because different people are at different levels of experience and/or understanding of general principles that go into such an analysis. And no, this is not a put-down of anyone, it is just my observation and we all had to start somewhere.

Joe.

[bztips]

However, it is also the fact that the overall closing market is quite efficient that creates the "misunderstanding" problem IMO. From conversations and posts on this forum, there are those that tend to think of the closing line as the probabilities for that individual event. If that was true, then no one using any system, information etc that wagers on the closing lines could possibly beat those %'s in the long term (with the exception of some very lucky outlier).

Nope, this has been gone over again and again. Most of those with a strong belief in the efficient markets principle believe that the closing line DOES represent the probability for that individual event. For them, there still is a way to make money by BTCL, ie you need to get in on the correct side before the line closes to its efficient value. (As I've stated before, I'm not one of these believers.)

[Shonner]

What I wonder is...how many of these "BTCL" scenarios won because of an obvious reason for line movement (e.g., big injury, drastic change in weather, suspension of a key player). Let's say that out of 100 times, 90-95 didn't have line movement for any obvious reason such as noted above. If 5-10 did, that could be enough to push the win % of beating the closing line to 55% maybe.

[CFA]

So it's possible for the market to move the line the wrong way??

On average, the market is an unbiased discounting mechanism. Therefore, on average, will move the line the right way. But the market is certainly not 100% infallible, nor can they discount material non public information (with a great amount of weighting the overall market price) that can change the implied win probability of a particular game. Yes, the market can move the line the wrong way.

[aggieshawn]

What does chasing steam mean?

[jgilmartin]

What does chasing steam mean?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/742085-what-does-shot-taking-bad-lines-steam-play-means.html

[Shonner]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbook...lay-means.html

Simply stated, it is when the board starts lighting up because there is sharp action on one side, and everyone is changing the line from 6.5 to 6, for example. But some books are slow to update the line, and you nail it before they get the chance to change it. In reality, you did nothing wrong but books don't like this behavior. If you nail enough of their weak lines, most will probably ban you. Some guys will sit there and stare at Matchbook or Pinny lines and wait for sharp action, then nail a book. Those people get banned often - sometimes even if they don't win.

[WendysRox]

attempting to confirm that you really believe that lines really have absolutely no correlation to probability

Yes, that is what I believe. I will be as plain as I can: lines do not reflect probability. I DO, however, believe that lines reflect action. And action has nothing to do with probability.

line = action != probability

I think we can all agree that MOST gamblers are losers over the long run. Since the line is set according to what these losing gamblers have their money on, how in the world can you produce an efficient line based on inefficient input? The answer is: you can't.

What you CAN do, however, is find the matches where the line is MOST INEFFICIENT and wager against the efficiency of that line.

[jgilmartin]

I think we can all agree that MOST gamblers are losers over the long run. Since the line is set according to what these losing gamblers have their money on, how in the world can you produce an efficient line based on inefficient input? The answer is: you can't.

That would make sense, however the line is much more heavily based on sharp action than it is the public's bets.

[suicidekings]

That would make sense, however the line is much more heavily based on sharp action than it is the public's bets.

Not always. Not all line movements are created equal. Sharp line movement is more likely to occur at different times than those resulting from a volume of public bets. Observing line history over time, you'll see a concentration of rapid movement on certain games right when the line opens, when the limits are raised on gameday, and in the closing minutes before the game begins.

Conversely, public money is more likely to flow into the books at a slower rate over the course of the day and particularly in the 2-3 hours leading up to the games beginning (at least in the NBA). Both might generate a shift in a particular line from -6 -> -7, but the movement itself is not necessarily an indicator that you're on the right/wrong side. How quickly and when the line move are stronger indicators than the shift itself.

[joe blow]

Very interesting thread

[Czu81]

I can learn a lot from this thread. THX guys!