The misunderstanding of "beating the closing line."

[AceKingHigh]

had +14 on georgia, +3 on texas +20 idaho cfb saturday dec. 3 all beat closer by 2.5 points and key #s all lost

Good point,
that's why I don't understand what all of you people saying...

Does someone really try to arbitrage a game for 2$ on every $100 risk ? that's just not worth it... so he is in for making like $10 ? $20 / game and the risk involved is having the money on the line when he wins its cool but if he loses he needs like years of arbitraging this measly $$ in order to get back ?! doesn't make ANY sense to me... someone care to comment on this?


As far as I understand, it's all about BRM, if you don't go crazy and bet right % of your bankroll on each play , reduce if lose , increase if wins, that's the way to go... I don't get you people.. you turned something really simple into NASA theories and explanations ! LOL

[AceKingHigh]

P.S, if I found something GOOD to use is live betting..
Recent example is NO Vs. DET that was tonight.. I was favoring NO to win but -9 or -9.5 didn't make me place a bet... it was too much IMO!

so I was waiting for an opportunity that I thought is good LIVE betting during the game...
I got Detroit +17 , put 1X on it and that's it.
it was the best number possible because NO didn't increased the lead but also, no one could get this kind of number by betting before the game... so... what your opinions about that?! (this is just one example but I've been managed to make good bets lately by placing live wagers. )

[Winner_13]

I spent 9+ months beating pinnys closer and nothing to show for it lost $. if people want evidence of this I can give you more than 500+ plays (not all plays beat no vig lines) but have got more than $26 scalps for every $100 and just bet side no scalp, but thatl take time and effort not just going to post on forum if someone wants a serious talk about it I can

however i have found other ways to make $..to be honest not worth the effort yet

this makes sense because books getting killed this year in football.
market maybe over adjusted for sharps.
also more than 70% of steam moves are fake now this isnt the olden days.

so gd luck with that, i bet billy bet washington +3 at a book that ppl just copy lines from everyone moved jets -1 and he buried it game closed at-3 again. ppl dont know wtf to do.

however back to my original point and its unfortunate i dont think the real pros are going to comment anymore.

market tends to move towards efficent line, however efficent is a term thats on a scale and its not that efficient closing line is very beatable.

[allin1]

P.S, if I found something GOOD to use is live betting..
Recent example is NO Vs. DET that was tonight.. I was favoring NO to win but -9 or -9.5 didn't make me place a bet... it was too much IMO!

so I was waiting for an opportunity that I thought is good LIVE betting during the game...
I got Detroit +17 , put 1X on it and that's it.
it was the best number possible because NO didn't increased the lead but also, no one could get this kind of number by betting before the game... so... what your opinions about that?! (this is just one example but I've been managed to make good bets lately by placing live wagers. )

Lately I am also looking for such opportunities. Bookmakers are slower at moving lines during live games, especially when there are several games running at once, and I believe you can find some interesting opportunities this way.

[AceKingHigh]

Lately I am also looking for such opportunities. Bookmakers are slower at moving lines during live games, especially when there are several games running at once, and I believe you can find some interesting opportunities this way.

Well, Honestly, I don't think they move lines slower or don't pay too much attention, they must give you some reason to bet a team so for example, if you go for a dog that was +10 ( College BB ) and right now after 15 minutes of play the team is trailing by 17, when there will be a time-out or during commercial, the book will offer you something like Dog +17 - I find it very good because at some games, the lines are missing big time... but I think ( and I don't have any stats about it , but from what I saw so far ) a lot of the games are finished pretty much close to the closing line, so at times, when there are a lot of games going on, During half time as well ( 2nd half bets ) I try to find some bets [Over Under as well] that my current line will be like 12-15 or even more points then what the closed line was... I think you have a decent chance hitting at good % that way... but it ain't easy.. and you need to sit down and wait for those opportunities... and nobody promised you will end up making money as well... so is it worth it?! only god knows! haha


Anymore people with some more info regards this ?

[durito]

I spent 9+ months beating pinnys closer and nothing to show for it lost $. if people want evidence of this I can give you more than 500+ plays (not all plays beat no vig lines) but have got more than $26 scalps for every $100 and just bet side no scalp, but thatl take time and effort not just going to post on forum if someone wants a serious talk about it I can

however i have found other ways to make $..to be honest not worth the effort yet

this makes sense because books getting killed this year in football.
market maybe over adjusted for sharps.
also more than 70% of steam moves are fake now this isnt the olden days.

so gd luck with that, i bet billy bet washington +3 at a book that ppl just copy lines from everyone moved jets -1 and he buried it game closed at-3 again. ppl dont know wtf to do.

however back to my original point and its unfortunate i dont think the real pros are going to comment anymore.

market tends to move towards efficent line, however efficent is a term thats on a scale and its not that efficient closing line is very beatable.

500 plays in 6 months? you should have made that many this weekend.

[Winner_13]

durito you are probably right.

[allin1]

Well, Honestly, I don't think they move lines slower or don't pay too much attention, they must give you some reason to bet a team so for example, if you go for a dog that was +10 ( College BB ) and right now after 15 minutes of play the team is trailing by 17, when there will be a time-out or during commercial, the book will offer you something like Dog +17 - I find it very good because at some games, the lines are missing big time... but I think ( and I don't have any stats about it , but from what I saw so far ) a lot of the games are finished pretty much close to the closing line, so at times, when there are a lot of games going on, During half time as well ( 2nd half bets ) I try to find some bets [Over Under as well] that my current line will be like 12-15 or even more points then what the closed line was... I think you have a decent chance hitting at good % that way... but it ain't easy.. and you need to sit down and wait for those opportunities... and nobody promised you will end up making money as well... so is it worth it?! only god knows! haha


Anymore people with some more info regards this ?

I also do the same thing and I also think that in the long run it could be a winning "system".

[antifoil]

If we are doing small samples. I can give you three from this weekend I had where the closing lost but I won. usf +3.5, over 55, uconn +10. I also lost on Georgia.

on the three I mention the game landed on 3, 57, and 8. my point is 15 in in 20000 can't be right. I would think there is at least 15 in NBA totals a season that land in between the opening and closing. Would need a database to find this out.

[mikew]

just wanted to say thanks for the thread, it was a good read and clarified some thing for me. trix made some good points, i'm surprised how many people weren't understanding him. anyway, thanks again

[wantitall4moi]

Considering that Justin7 has a book on mathematical approach on betting, he has experience with Pinnaclesports, and bets for a living, I would consider the ideas he posts on the forum worth studying.

Regarding the direction of this discussion I think it would be nice to keep insults aside. We can discuss, debate like grown men without offending directly anyone.

LMAO, a mathematical approach to sportsbetting is like writing a book about time travel. Full of some widely accepted mythology but nothing that can be proven.

You know what my experience with Pinnacle was...the only kind that mattered, they booked my bets and paid me on the winners, which were substantial.

Bottom line is you'll never get a straight answer here, even if guys had one to give. I gave what I have. A database with close to 50K games across all the major sports, with most of the line moves from opener to close.

Beating the closer is not even a factor, even getting the 'best' line in relation to a line move isnt even a guarantee. In other words openers are actually more reliable than any other number when compared to the actual final results. Meaning whomever makes the opener these days is better at it that the so called market, or players who 'set' the price with their wagers.

But for guys who really know what is up they already understand that. betting a 'virgin' line is much more profitable than betting lines that have moved or had a ton of action thrown into them.

[MonkeyF0cker]

LMAO, a mathematical approach to sportsbetting is like writing a book about time travel. Full of some widely accepted mythology but nothing that can be proven.

You know what my experience with Pinnacle was...the only kind that mattered, they booked my bets and paid me on the winners, which were substantial.

Bottom line is you'll never get a straight answer here, even if guys had one to give. I gave what I have. A database with close to 50K games across all the major sports, with most of the line moves from opener to close.

Beating the closer is not even a factor, even getting the 'best' line in relation to a line move isnt even a guarantee. In other words openers are actually more reliable than any other number when compared to the actual final results. Meaning whomever makes the opener these days is better at it that the so called market, or players who 'set' the price with their wagers.

But for guys who really know what is up they already understand that. betting a 'virgin' line is much more profitable than betting lines that have moved or had a ton of action thrown into them.

Let's have a contest, Mr. Sharpie. 10,000 plays. NFL, NBA, and MLB sides and totals. When a line closes more than 5% apart from the opener, you get the closing number and I get the opener. Each wager is a 1 unit TO WIN wager. Whoever has a better record (in units) after the 10,000 plays, wins. Name your price up to $100,000.

[sharpcat]

Let's have a contest, Mr. Sharpie. 10,000 plays. NFL, NBA, and MLB sides and totals. When a line closes more than 5% apart from the opener, you get the closing number and I get the opener. Each wager is a 1 unit TO WIN wager. Whoever has a better record (in units) after the 10,000 plays, wins. Name your price up to $100,000.

10 paragraph ramble on why Wantitall4moi is afraid to accept this challenge in........5.....4......3............

[allin1]

LMAO, a mathematical approach to sportsbetting is like writing a book about time travel. Full of some widely accepted mythology but nothing that can be proven.

You know what my experience with Pinnacle was...the only kind that mattered, they booked my bets and paid me on the winners, which were substantial
.

Your analogy with time travel is wrong because there are enough people that make a living by betting with mathematical approaches. When I said experience with Pinnacle it was about the fact that he used to work FOR them.

[mikew]

Let's have a contest, Mr. Sharpie. 10,000 plays. NFL, NBA, and MLB sides and totals. When a line closes more than 5% apart from the opener, you get the closing number and I get the opener. Each wager is a 1 unit TO WIN wager. Whoever has a better record (in units) after the 10,000 plays, wins. Name your price up to $100,000.

wait, you want the opening number on any moves that are 5% apart? ill take the closing. i'm not wantitall4moi though. and i cant bet $100k but id do something like $10k for kicks.. and we are talking about 10k plays going forward yes? edit/ gonna assume that we're not on the same page, that if the line opens Lakers -6 and closes -4, you taking -6 and giving me -4 is not what you had in mind

[FourLengthsClear]

Let's have a contest, Mr. Sharpie. 10,000 plays. NFL, NBA, and MLB sides and totals. When a line closes more than 5% apart from the opener, you get the closing number and I get the opener. Each wager is a 1 unit TO WIN wager. Whoever has a better record (in units) after the 10,000 plays, wins. Name your price up to $100,000.

Good luck trying to get wanty to even acknowledge that you can measure 5% on a side/total.

I wonder if wanty was ever a linesmaker for the BetPhoenix group. They applied the same sort of principles.

[Winner_13]

"Meaning whomever makes the opener these days is better at it that the so called market, or players who 'set' the price with their wagers.

But for guys who really know what is up they already understand that. betting a 'virgin' line is much more profitable than betting lines that have moved or had a ton of action thrown into them."


Wth? am i missing something? didnt you just contradict yourself. If the opening number is more accurate like u said how can betting a virgin line be more profitable if its closest to the opening?

[Winner_13]

Monkey are u saying u will have a contest were u if a opening price on a dog is +5 and it closes +2.5 i get the opener of +5 u take -5?

like mikew im confused and am assuming thats not what u meant.

[FourLengthsClear]

Monkey are u saying u will have a contest were u if a opening price on a dog is +5 and it closes +2.5 i get the opener of +5 u take -5?

like mikew im confused and am assuming thats not what u meant.

Monkey gets the +5, you get the -2.5 on the other side.

[Winner_13]

thats what i thought.

[BDiddy]

I think everyone is missing a rather large idea here. TCL is the most effiecient, many researches have shown this, just google research articles on effiecient markets. More importantly, you don't know which CL is sharpest b/c you don't know which game is being bet on by who. If no "smart money" plays on Chicago/Boston game, but alot of public money does then that closing line could be less accurate. On an NBA board with 11 games, some CL will reflect "smart money" and some will reflect public money... Nobody knows which games reflect which money. Do your own work and figure it out yourself or else your just wasting your time, because in the shady world of money making, you can't trust anyone but yourself.

[jerry]

I think everyone is missing a rather large idea here. TCL is the most effiecient, many researches have shown this, just google research articles on effiecient markets. More importantly, you don't know which CL is sharpest b/c you don't know which game is being bet on by who. If no "smart money" plays on Chicago/Boston game, but alot of public money does then that closing line could be less accurate. On an NBA board with 11 games, some CL will reflect "smart money" and some will reflect public money... Nobody knows which games reflect which money. Do your own work and figure it out yourself or else your just wasting your time, because in the shady world of money making, you can't trust anyone but yourself.

If teams beat the closing line 50% of the time and lose against it 50% of the time, one must assume all closing lines are set by sharp money.

[BDiddy]

Assume what you will, but that is a simple way to be wrong. Sharp money does not make a play on every game on every board every day...

[mikew]

Assume what you will, but that is a simple way to be wrong. Sharp money does not make a play on every game on every board every day...

if no "smart money" is on Chicago/Boston, thats because the line is already sharp, aka efficient. by definition, they would only play against inefficient lines, thus causing those lines to move, thus making those lines efficient as well.

[BDiddy]

if no "smart money" is on Chicago/Boston, thats because the line is already sharp, aka efficient. by definition, they would only play against inefficient lines, thus causing those lines to move, thus making those lines efficient as well.

I see what you are saying, but if a line is efficient the public doesn't know that, and generally doesn't care... especially if its a tv game. So then the line move is going to come from public money not sharp money. The point is you don't know who is moving the line or why.

[mikew]

right, but the idea behind the efficient market theory, is that if the line moves due to unbalanced public action, and the line moves too far away from "true value" (efficiency), then the smart money would be all over it yet again pushing it back where it belongs

[WWSports]

This may be way off base, but if a line is moving in the underdog's direction and the % of bets favor the favorite by a substantial amount, I feel like this is a good indicator that the smart money is on the underdog. Anyone occur or disagree?

[That Foreign Guy]

% of bets is almost always a bullshit statistic though.

[WWSports]

% of bets is almost always a bullshit statistic though.

how come. I only use it as a number of bets for/againt, not as any indicator of amount of bet. If the numbers are correct, my understanding is if I bet $50 on Boston -6 and you bet $10,000 on Detroit +6 then we have 1 bet for and 1 bet against. 50%-50% of bets placed.

[Monte]

You can beat a closing line, and still have the odds against you...cos the lines don't always move towards where you'd expect "true odds", even Pinny moves on action and this action doesn't have to be sharp. Get over it ppl, if it would be that easy you would just always have to play small off-lines (compared to pinny) at other books, this happens all the time. If you see one at the Greek, how the fukk do you want to know them or Pinny have the sharp closer? Such a thing exists in the biggest of markets like NFL spreads maybe, but that's it...

[durito]

You can beat a closing line, and still have the odds against you...cos the lines don't always move towards where you'd expect "true odds", even Pinny moves on action and this action doesn't have to be sharp. Get over it ppl, if it would be that easy you would just always have to play small off-lines (compared to pinny) at other books, this happens all the time. If you see one at the Greek, how the fukk do you want to know them or Pinny have the sharp closer? Such a thing exists in the biggest of markets like NFL spreads maybe, but that's it...

must be running hot for 5 years now

[Justin7]

wait, you want the opening number on any moves that are 5% apart? ill take the closing. i'm not wantitall4moi though. and i cant bet $100k but id do something like $10k for kicks.. and we are talking about 10k plays going forward yes? edit/ gonna assume that we're not on the same page, that if the line opens Lakers -6 and closes -4, you taking -6 and giving me -4 is not what you had in mind

If it opens -6 and closes -4, he gets +6, you get +4. He gets the good side of the move. And you are throwing money away accepting this bet.On a 5%+ move, he is expect to win at least 53%, probably closer to 54% of the bets. You have no chance with a contest this long.

[Winner_13]

u mean he gets -4 instead of +4.

[baskets]

wasn't there a pro who did this on sbr and couldn't even hit 50%?

[Monte]

I've said this before, but...i totally agree with the theory of being on the good side of moves, like Justin explains.

But I totally disagree with the term "closing line". How likely is it that closing lines are sharper than lines that have been up for hours or days, and then bookies try to balance their action a bit in the end (like Pinny does, the famous hectic line movement before tip-off) ??