Correlated Parlay

**gamblinggoose** · 10-08-10, 10:46 AM

There are 8 NCAA correlated parlays this weekend. I am thinking about doing 4 teamers. Meaning the Side and Total from two different games making a total of 4 different bets. Betting $50 to win $500 four different times, any thoughts on this from anybody?? Yeah I know 10:1 is not desirable but they are 40% correlated or more. Any help appreciated!

**dogman** · 10-08-10, 01:15 PM

You have more risk doing it that way but you definitely stand to make much more money. If it's offshore you probaly stand a high chance of getting banned if you play it that way, though, with the higher payoffs.

**SparJMU** · 10-09-10, 10:59 AM

This week's plays:

Wyoming +35 TCU Under 48.5San Jose St. +37.5 Nevada, 60Toledo +38 Boise, Under 58.5

Also, for the first time I am betting the other side of these plays as well. Let's see what happens.

**SparJMU** · 10-12-10, 08:06 AM

All right so I went 2-1 this week, and I think I finally have all this figured out. I am playing both sides going forward, and I believe I will win back those tough early losses from simply playing only one side.

Thanks a lot to everyone.

**Joe Sharp** · 10-20-10, 10:56 AM

Great info here. How did you do last week Spar?

Lets put together a list of the top %'s for this weekend.....

**LegitBet** · 10-21-10, 12:38 AM

can anyone help me with the value order of 'correlated parlays'?
for example i can get many diff parlays in, so what would be my most sought after ones, except mlb run line and totals of course..
thanks so much

**TPowell** · 10-21-10, 02:43 PM

my local's website doesn't allow CP's, tried to parlay UCLA and UNDER just to check and didnt work

**TPowell** · 10-21-10, 02:49 PM

can somebody PM me some places that still allow CP's??

**Joe Sharp** · 10-21-10, 02:51 PM

No reputable 'online' books take them. I have a local that accepts them... I don't think he has a clue what "correlated" means. haha

**Joe Sharp** · 10-22-10, 03:31 PM

Oregon/Over hit last night.... How about tomorrow?

10/23
Washington State @ Stanford (35/63) 56%
Colorado State @ Utah (31/58) 53%
Purdue @ Ohio State (23.5/47) 50%
Duke @ Virginia Tech (27/61) 44%
Iowa State @ Texas (20.5/48) 43%
Eastern Michigan @ Virginia (24/55.5) 43%

**SparJMU** · 10-26-10, 11:22 AM

I only played the top 3 you have listed there. Surprisingly my online book took the Purdue game, I guess their cutoff is above 50%.

Another 2-1 weekend for me. Third in a row.

**Joe Sharp** · 10-26-10, 01:06 PM

Nice I only played IowaState/Under and Hit it! Tonight LaTech/Under looks tasty....

**DTRIM** · 10-26-10, 03:29 PM

So the higher the % the better the play is? Is that how it works? This Boise/Latech game (-38,65) 58%, so is that a better play than the games from saturday? I've been looking into playing both sides like you mention above and have two bookies willing to accept these bets. Is that the way to do it? Bet Boise -38 over 65 and LaT +38 and under 65?

What are the odds of this game hitting one or the other? Any clarification on how this should work will be a big help - THANKS

**DTRIM** · 10-26-10, 03:29 PM

double post - sorry

**Joe Sharp** · 10-27-10, 10:33 AM

The higher the %, the stronger the correlation. In my experience it's better to follow strong plays with a small parlay if it is in fact correlated. Correlated Parlays are over 70% in college football this year but you would have had to play every single game on both sides.

To expand on my first comment - I really liked Iowa State this past weekend & it happened to be a correlated opportunity. So I played Iowa State and then a smaller parlay. It hit but it doesn't always work out that way (obviously).

**SparJMU** · 11-01-10, 12:52 PM

Quick update for anyone interested. The 3 highest plays this weekend were Boise, Temple, and TCU. So I ended up 0-3. In summary, I have been playing the 3 or 4 highest percentages every single week. Playing both sides, my record is 8-7, which is a loss.

I thought this was supposed to hit at a much higher rate than 53%.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-01-10, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Quick update for anyone interested. The 3 highest plays this weekend were Boise, Temple, and TCU. So I ended up 0-3. In summary, I have been playing the 3 or 4 highest percentages every single week. Playing both sides, my record is 8-7, which is a loss. I thought this was supposed to hit at a much higher rate than 53%.

sample size bro

and 3 or 4 highest is an arbitrary cutoff... find some rules for what applies

if you want to know good basic rules, try to bet these at the M, get denied, and have them tell you their rules.

**SparJMU** · 11-01-10, 02:43 PM

Thanks Peregrine. I am sure sample size is the reason here, but its still a little frustrating at this point.

Basically I don't want to burn out these locals so I have been limiting my plays to the 3 or 4 highest in a given week. So I obviously select the games with the highest ratios and go with them.

**mminkovski** · 11-01-10, 03:33 PM

SparJMU, you're betting half time lines, right? I did analysis for past 15 years and full time results are not in your favor even you can parlay those bets. No data for half time though...

**SparJMU** · 11-08-10, 08:30 AM

Well there were only three plays above 40% this weekend. Michigan St., Mississippi, and Oregon. I went 1-2 on the day thanks to a 0.5 point miss on the Oregon game. On the year I am now 9-9 which is a pretty solid loss position. I realized this weekend's plays weren't quite as strong and didn't bet as heavily, but still frustrating. I thought this was supposed to be easy money?

Am I missing something or should I stay the course?

**Pancho sanza** · 11-08-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Well there were only three plays above 40% this weekend. Michigan St., Mississippi, and Oregon. I went 1-2 on the day thanks to a 0.5 point miss on the Oregon game. On the year I am now 9-9 which is a pretty solid loss position. I realized this weekend's plays weren't quite as strong and didn't bet as heavily, but still frustrating. I thought this was supposed to be easy money?

Am I missing something or should I stay the course?

Variance can be a bitch.

Keep betting them.

**SparJMU** · 11-08-10, 10:48 AM

I am embarrassed at how far my math/computer skills have fallen at this point in my life. I did some quick algebra to determine that the breakeven point on these plays is 55.55%. Is there an excel function I can use to graph the expected ROI on these plays?

**SparJMU** · 11-09-10, 11:02 AM

Well I sat down with excel and figured it out. Maybe this is what people are referring to when they tell us beginners to educate ourselves.

**dodger33** · 11-10-10, 02:24 AM

Trial by fire. There appear to be a couple of opportunities this weekend. LSU/LA Monroe is like 69%

**SparJMU** · 11-10-10, 11:34 AM

There are 6 with ratios above 45%. I will be playing all 6. I am due to break out of this.

**dodger33** · 11-10-10, 03:27 PM

My book does not put up totals until game day. Hopefully this will work.

**BrentCrude** · 11-10-10, 04:01 PM

www.bet33.com allows them Supposedly bad book but I play correlated exclusively and always get paid 100% free play bonus on 1st and maybe 2nd or 3rd $100 deposits if you spread them out far enough apart.Dog moneyline parlays seem to be a ripoff.Hockey pucklines are great odds.

**Jmoiz888** · 11-10-10, 05:20 PM

Love that ball state bet

**SparJMU** · 11-13-10, 12:31 AM

Boise state fails yet again. I am now 9-10 on the year. Down nearly $2,000. Seriously doubting this concept at this point.

**SparJMU** · 11-14-10, 10:22 PM

In case anyone is curious, 6 plays were above 45% this weekend, and I finished 3-3. For the entire year I am a dead even 12-12, which is a negative return.

**SparJMU** · 11-18-10, 10:39 AM

Despite the 12-12 record, I am not giving up on these plays, but I have a question for the experts. Boise St. has been the thorn in my side this entire time, going 1-4 on correlated parlays over the course of the season. I watch these games and the reason I lose is because Boise jumps out to gigantic leads, but their second string is completely miserable. In these 5 games they only have 4 TDs in the 4th quarter. Should I remove Boise St. from my plays going forward due to the fact that they are incapable of scoring late, which kills either the spread or total? Or should I continue playing them simply based on the math?

**Pancho sanza** · 11-18-10, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Despite the 12-12 record, I am not giving up on these plays, but I have a question for the experts. Boise St. has been the thorn in my side this entire time, going 1-4 on correlated parlays over the course of the season. I watch these games and the reason I lose is because Boise jumps out to gigantic leads, but their second string is completely miserable. In these 5 games they only have 4 TDs in the 4th quarter. Should I remove Boise St. from my plays going forward due to the fact that they are incapable of scoring late, which kills either the spread or total? Or should I continue playing them simply based on the math?

2 words for you,

sample size

Yes keep playing them.

**mminkovski** · 11-19-10, 12:04 AM

you could try Boise with half lines. It might work if they jump out to a big lead and then slow down.

**SparJMU** · 11-19-10, 09:47 AM

Thanks guys.

**scdavis0** · 11-19-10, 11:57 PM

Are 45% ratios still good plays for 1H and 2H parlays?