Correlated Parlay

**Pancho sanza** · 09-21-10, 04:45 PM

#1) Size your bets according to your edge, if you don't know how to calculate the edge, just bet more on the higher ratio plays
#2) Don't pass up the fav/over side, they are +ev as well and reduces your variance
#3) If this is at any of the Sportsbook.com family of books, I would be careful, they could yank your winnings from your account.

**the.guy** · 09-21-10, 05:03 PM

couple of nice posts. great work

**Dark Horse** · 09-21-10, 05:47 PM

If you had split the 300 per game and bet half on F/O and the other half on D/U, you would not have lost 600 last week, but have made 480. In any case, it's better not to speak of these (in detail) on public forums. A book that still offered these last week changed policy this week, no longer allowing the higher percentage correlations.

**SparJMU** · 09-21-10, 06:29 PM

Pancho

1) Thanks for the advice, I will do that. Any advice on how to calculate the edge? Or should I just create a reasonable scale?

2) I understand your point about playing both sides, but this book is actually an individual, and I am sure he would be very skeptical when I played both sides, and I didn't want to get greedy. I understand I would have made money betting both sides, but I felt it was safer to only play a single side, so I went with underdog,

It should still yield long term positive results only betting a single side right?

**Rio DiNero** · 09-21-10, 06:30 PM

congrats! you have found a money printing machine.

**Pancho sanza** · 09-21-10, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Pancho

1) Thanks for the advice, I will do that. Any advice on how to calculate the edge? Or should I just create a reasonable scale?

2) I understand your point about playing both sides, but this book is actually an individual, and I am sure he would be very skeptical when I played both sides, and I didn't want to get greedy. I understand I would have made money betting both sides, but I felt it was safer to only play a single side, so I went with underdog,

It should still yield long term positive results only betting a single side right?

Create a scale.

Fair point on betting with an individual, don't play both sides.

Yes it is still OK to just play the one side but here's something you can do if you can't parlay the other side offshore or anywhere else.

Find a low juice book, pinnacle or matchbook is your best bet, and bet the other sides individually.

Example

Osu -30/over 46 with local

Pinnacle

Dog +30
under 46

Bet these at pinnacle as 2 straight bets.

This allows you to bet more on the parlay since you reduce your variance.

I would say if you can get these 2 sides at lower vig than what you bet the Fav/over with the local, then bet them in equivalent amounts up to the total risked on the parlay, so if you have OSU/Over for $100, risk $50 on each of the 2 single bets.

Use about 5 cents better as a minimum, otherwise pass.

There are also times when you'll be able to scratch out an extra half point, say for example you have an out that has dog at +31 and the under at 47, you're golden when this is the case.

**davidchong** · 09-21-10, 07:06 PM

why took the underdog... took the favorite and the under......

those games are expected to no score ffrom the underdog......

Originally posted by SparJMU

I recently found a book that accepts correlated parlays. I don't have any expertise in the area but read a few threads and decided to make a run at it. I am betting $300 a game when spreads are greater than 45% of the total. I also decided to simply play the underdog/under side so my subjective stupidity doesn't mess anything up.

So basically here are my results, and my future plays. Can someone with expertise tell me if I am doing anything wrong, or if I should keep at it? Is it as simple as I have made it out to be?

Last Week

Ohio +30.5, Under 45, 68% ratio. LOSS -$300
Wyoming +24, Under 52, 46% ratio. LOSS -$300

This Week

Ball St. +28, Under 46.5, 60% ratio
Eastern Michigan +44, Under 54.5, 81% ratio
New Mexico St. +22, Under 48, 46% ratio
San Jose St +32.5, Under 50.5, 64% ratio
Western Kentucky +27, Under 59.5, 45% ratio

Thanks in Advance

**Shonner** · 09-21-10, 07:35 PM

If the book accepts correlated parlays, just wait until you hit a few...once they realize it, they will block you from it

**That Foreign Guy** · 09-22-10, 04:41 AM

Yeah my worry would be that they accept correlated parlays but they won't pay out on correlated parlays (they'll suddenly discover the error when you win).

**Poogs** · 09-22-10, 07:19 AM

Yea don't hedge and don't worry about losing a little at first. Its actually a good thing. I'd mix in some noob parlays as well because you WILL get booted at some point.

**SparJMU** · 09-22-10, 12:56 PM

Thanks guys. I am going to stick with my Underdog/Under for now since I do not want to be too blatant with this guy. I will keep playing those parlays big, and throw in 1 or 2 $50 noob parlays on the side. Let's hope this works, I will update this thread if anything exciting happens.

**Kevy** · 09-22-10, 11:19 PM

Bet 365 back in the day when they allowed US players would let players
parlay baseball run lines and totals for the same game and even promote it
in the forums.

**gamblinggoose** · 09-23-10, 08:17 AM

Hey Spar JMU
I also have a bookie who allows this and am in the same boat as you are. Does yours change the lines? I have a guy who does not change his lines on Saturday when he releases them on Thursdays. I am thinking about going which ever way the advantage is on Saturday from his Thursdays lines. I am also thinking about playing both the Favorite/Over and the Underdog/Under too but i am not sure which method. Also he pays out 10:1 on 4 Teamers which is tempting....I mean if you bet $100 on two favorites and overs he pays out a grand....what do you think??

**That Foreign Guy** · 09-23-10, 10:17 AM

I wouldn't play both on the same game, that might give him a clue. Take the stale line and swing for the fences IMO (assuming no payout risk) - he's more likely to write it off as getting lucky if you lose lose lose win than if you win win win lose (total results for the week)

**gamblinggoose** · 09-23-10, 10:30 AM

So it is just best to play whichever goes to my advatange. He does not move his lines either so it could go from 65 down to 60 in the Totals side and that case I should play Underdog/Under correct? Thats probably the best way to just stick to 1 play. You have any thoughts on 4 Teamer at 10:1 pay outs using this same method?

**dogman** · 09-23-10, 10:32 AM

What I would do is get a partner. You bet the fav/over and let your buddy bet the dog/under. With one of you winning and the other losing this might fly by him.

**secret007** · 09-23-10, 11:03 AM

NVM

**gamblinggoose** · 09-23-10, 11:59 AM

NVM?

**SparJMU** · 09-26-10, 10:48 AM

So I played the 3 highest percentages in yesterday's games. 0-3.

On the season I am 0-5, for -$1,500 playing correlaed parlays.

**Pancho sanza** · 09-26-10, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

So I played the 3 highest percentages in yesterday's games. 0-3.

On the season I am 0-5, for -$1,500 playing correlaed parlays.

Corr parlays with a ratio of 40 % or more went 9-0 yesterday, meaning either Dog/un or Fav/Over won.

Here are the rotation #'s

310 314 326 332 355 358 365 372 395

**BigDaddy** · 09-26-10, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by SparJMU

So I played the 3 highest percentages in yesterday's games. 0-3.

On the season I am 0-5, for -$1,500 playing correlaed parlays.

pretty tough to be down playing CP's this year in NCAA

you have a small sample size

best thing to do is play both ways on these bets

Dog/U
Fav/O

**JohnAnthony** · 09-26-10, 03:30 PM

Question now is: when will they cut you off? be careful not to attract too much attention - don't keep too much $$$ there.

**AdamL2424** · 09-26-10, 06:57 PM

so do you just do a 2 team parlay or 2 straight bets?

**SparJMU** · 09-26-10, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

Corr parlays with a ratio of 40 % or more went 9-0 yesterday, meaning either Dog/un or Fav/Over won.

Here are the rotation #'s

310 314 326 332 355 358 365 372 395

As discussed above, I am betting through an individual, so I cannot bet both the Underdog/Under and the Favorite/Over. This person is not experienced enough to understand what a correlated parlay is, but I fear that if I start betting both sides of each game eventually he will catch on. Instead, to eliminate my pathetic attempts at handicapping, I decided to simply bet the underdog/under combination on all games. Doing this I am currently 0-5 and have lost $1,500. Coincidentally on all 5 games the Favorite/Over combination has won.

These were my three losers from Saturday.

Ball St. +28, Under 46.5, 60% ratio
Eastern Michigan +44, Under 54.5, 81% ratio
San Jose St +32.5, Under 50.5, 64% ratio

**Pancho sanza** · 09-26-10, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

As discussed above, I am betting through an individual, so I cannot bet both the Underdog/Under and the Favorite/Over. This person is not experienced enough to understand what a correlated parlay is, but I fear that if I start betting both sides of each game eventually he will catch on. Instead, to eliminate my pathetic attempts at handicapping, I decided to simply bet the underdog/under combination on all games. Doing this I am currently 0-5 and have lost $1,500. Coincidentally on all 5 games the Favorite/Over combination has won.

These were my three losers from Saturday.

Ball St. +28, Under 46.5, 60% ratio
Eastern Michigan +44, Under 54.5, 81% ratio
San Jose St +32.5, Under 50.5, 64% ratio

That sucks that you were on the wrong side of all 5.

Read my 2nd post in this thread, give that strategy a try.

**SparJMU** · 10-02-10, 09:39 AM

Today's Plays

Alcorn St +42, Under 59.5
Colorado St. +33.3, Under 54.5
New Mexico St. +43.5, Under 60.5
UL Monroe +35, Under 54.5

**RickySteve** · 10-02-10, 06:32 PM

Betting both sides increases EG and EV on a given game but also dramatically increases your risk of being banned or robbed.

**LT Profits** · 10-03-10, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

Betting both sides at the same book increases EG and EV on a given game but also dramatically increases your risk of being banned or robbed.

He just needs to find a second book that takes them. The partner idea works too they are trustworthy,

**skrtelfan** · 10-03-10, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

Betting both sides increases EG and EV on a given game but also dramatically increases your risk of being banned or robbed.

Right. I wouldn't bet both sides with the same book if it were a regular sportsbook either, since that's too obvious. While the OP has been unlucky so far, once these start hitting be sure to give this local some other action than just the CPs so you aren't being too obvious. For example if he has +4.5 on some NFL side that's +4 on the market, in addition to your regular bet on the +4.5, put in a small parlay as well with either the over or the under. That'll draw less attention to your CFB CPs.

**ThaWoj** · 10-03-10, 05:54 PM

I don't understand the point of hedging as discussed in panchos example because even assuming you can bet the 2 straight bets offshore at -105, you'd have 3 possible outcomes on using the $ amounts he used (barring pushes); hit parlay, making both straight bets lose = $50 profit. lose parlay, and winning both straight bets = break even. lose parlay and win only 1 straight bet = $102.50 loss.....

just doesn't seem worth it to me unless i'm missing something...

**SparJMU** · 10-04-10, 08:29 AM

First of all, I sincerely appreciate everyone's advice on this matter. Currently I am having some pretty bad luck, but I think I found a second book for the remainder of the season. This will allow me to spread out the Underdog/Under with one book and the Favorite/Over with a second book, which is obviously the ideal scenario.

Also, I couldn't agree more about throwing in some sucker bets once I start winning. I have actually been throwing in some small parlays already just so he doesn't see the same Underdog/Under combos on every single bet I make.

Anyway, another unlucky week. Season record is now 1-8, -$2,140. Next weekend should be the beginning on betting both sides, and I am very excited about that,

**Pancho sanza** · 10-04-10, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by ThaWoj;66***29

I don't understand the point of hedging as discussed in panchos example because even assuming you can bet the 2 straight bets offshore at -105, you'd have 3 possible outcomes on using the $ amounts he used (barring pushes); hit parlay, making both straight bets lose = $50 profit. lose parlay, and winning both straight bets = break even. lose parlay and win only 1 straight bet = $102.50 loss.....

just doesn't seem worth it to me unless i'm missing something...

Slightly neg ev bets are OK from a kelly point of view when they A) reduce variance B) allow you to bet more on the + ev part of the play.

This strategy does both.

**ThaWoj** · 10-04-10, 04:45 PM

ok, thanks for adding your insight

**shaunovery** · 10-08-10, 05:05 AM

I wouldn't play them given you're results