Predictive Modeling

[Inspirited]

Hello, I'm new to sports betting. I was following someone's world cup betting thread on another message board and thought it was interesting, so I eventually decided to do some experimental Fantasy betting on baseball. My experimental ways of betting have increased from 1 to 11 ways. All methods together give me +8000 based on $100 units in 9 days.

A few days ago I started to get into the mathematics of expectation values and figuring out break-even probabilities. With the mathematics I am starting to see how illogical some of my bets would be if I decided to keep all 11 ways of betting. I've been able to figure out the chances a team needs to win to make certain bets and now really want to figure out a way to model that.

So, can you lead me to any sites or books that I can read to learn how to create simple models to attain probabilities of a team's chances of winning a particular game?

[IrishTim]

Conquering Risk

[Inspirited]

thanks for the suggestion.

[Jasonal_98]

I just noticed the book "Conquering Risk" in the SBR Store. Is anyone familiar with the authors? The page on Amazon looked interesting.

[LT Profits]

Why is the book under Novelties? Does SBR think that it's a novelty if a member can read?

[CrimsonQueen]

Conquering Risk appears to not be published yet... so...how does anyone know that it's a good book?
I'd love to read another good book on sports betting but no two people will ever recommend the same book...it seems like they all have major flaws.

[Climate]

Hello, I'm new to sports betting. I was following someone's world cup betting thread on another message board and thought it was interesting, so I eventually decided to do some experimental Fantasy betting on baseball. My experimental ways of betting have increased from 1 to 11 ways. All methods together give me +8000 based on $100 units in 9 days.

A few days ago I started to get into the mathematics of expectation values and figuring out break-even probabilities. With the mathematics I am starting to see how illogical some of my bets would be if I decided to keep all 11 ways of betting. I've been able to figure out the chances a team needs to win to make certain bets and now really want to figure out a way to model that.

So, can you lead me to any sites or books that I can read to learn how to create simple models to attain probabilities of a team's chances of winning a particular game?

They don't exist in any form I've been able to find that's public info. The ones I did find you could create on Excel in 5 minutes. Three books that may help:

Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao
The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin
Betting Baseball by Michael Murray

Good site with serious cappers: http://www.lvasportsboards.com/index.php

[FreeFall]

Is that Justins book? Does ordering it now get us the book? Or a ticket to get it? Seems sketchy/unclear.

[Justin7]

It's a pre-order at the SBR store. It should ship around August 14th.

[Jasonal_98]

It's a pre-order at the SBR store. It should ship around August 14th.

Is this your book, Justin?

[chaka]

'Conquering Risk:' New sports betting book offers invaluable info for an advanced audience

http://www.sophisticatedmaniac.com/2010/06/conquering-risk-eagerly-awaited-sports.html



This early review is based on an advance copy of the book. I'll include further details regarding its publication in this space as they become available. Update: It's likely that the revised title will be "Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street."
It's telling that the authors of "Conquering Risk," an outstanding new book that embraces a rigorously scientific approach to betting sports, go out of their way several times to define their audience.



Here's a hint: They're not writing for novices.

Early on, they submit that their treatise is ideal for seasoned bettors who can already explain why Ohio State minus 45 points parlayed with over 48 in the same game is a profitable play.

Later, they present a case in which you take Chicago plus 3 points and an hour later the market is at Chicago plus 4. Regardless of the game's outcome, you made a bad bet. If you find that puzzling, they suggest you probably lack the basic analytical skills required to be a professional gambler.

Subtitled "Trading, Models and Assumptions for Sports and Stock Betting" and written by Elihu D. Feustel and George S. Howard, the book is sure to garner plenty of well-deserved accolades among serious sports bettors upon its official release this summer.
The scope of the book is ambitious, with an agenda that "involves the proper assessment of risks in one's life," according to the introduction.

Feustel, an attorney and professional gambler; and Howard, a professor in the psychology department at the University of Notre Dame, achieve that objective. "Conquering Risk" contains several chapters on investing in the stock market and one on the finer points of crafting a strategy for fantasy league drafts.

Make no mistake, though: The heart of the book entails establishing a plan, based heavily on mathematical modeling, to succeed at sports betting in today's increasingly complex marketplace.

The meaty midsection of the 18-chapter book comes in chapters 6 through 11, in which Feustel -- this stuff is his domain -- describes how to develop statistical models for sports handicapping using computer databases, regression analysis and meticulous testing.

It takes a grasp of some advanced mathematical concepts as well as computer programming skills. But for those who are up to it, Feustel's comprehensive instructions -- these six chapters alone cover 82 data-packed pages -- are invaluable.

Among his examples, Feustel presents a model for handicapping the NFL based on a variety of team statistics; one for college football based on yards-per-play; one for the WNBA based on offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency; and one for baseball based on projected run production. He also includes suggestions on how to tweak your models to make them more accurate.

No previously published work has come close to the level of detail offered here on the subject of using statistical models to make money in sports betting.

The buildup to the middle chapters includes a look at how trading in sports betting differs from handicapping and how the two skill sets can complement each other. The authors explore, in depth, ideas such as expected value; half-point, money-line and run-line conversions; derivatives; teasers; buying points; middles; and line movement.
The fourth chapter, aptly titled "Knowing the Enemy," examines sports books, online as well as land-based operations in Nevada.

In yet another indication that "Conquering Risk" is geared toward an advanced readership, the authors compare a sharp wager to "an act of violence directed at the sports book's bottom line," and warn that "most books treat it as such."

Although it's totally accurate, I've never before seen this notion expressed in such terms. The vivid metaphor works well.

The authors go on to say, in an admonition that will ring true for many savvy bettors: "If you show any inkling of intelligence, many sports books will hassle, harass or expel you."
After the centerpiece on statistical modeling, the authors delve into topics such as attacking propositions on the Super Bowl and other events; betting futures; finding correlations; and using the Poisson distribution to analyze props. They conclude, and I don't think it's stepping on any privileged information to reveal this here, that Poisson is "a deadly tool in a professional sports bettor's arsenal ... but it can lead to ruin for bettors who misuse it."
The chapters on Wall Street are well-written but break no new ground.

The book concludes with several chapters and a series of charts on conversion analyses involving baseball and football totals, push rates, and point spread-to-money line formulas. I'm confident that many readers will find these charts alone worth the price of the book.

As an inevitable consequence of the book's publication, some bettors will protest that Feustel and Howard are "giving away the store," or releasing sensitive information that will make it tougher for aspiring professional gamblers to succeed in a notoriously competitive arena.

Feustel anticipates, and counters, the argument. Like it or not, he says, the market is continually evolving. Diligent gamblers who use their creativity and imagination will find two new lucrative options for every one that vanishes.

"Could this book destroy a few rare opportunities?" he asks. "Yes. However, if you are a thinker, and do not mind working hard, you will more than make up for any lost opportunities."
(Full disclosure: I contributed some editing work to this book.)



Jeff Haney is the reviewer- not me.
I am looking forward to the modeling/database portion myself.

[Patrick McIrish]

It's telling that the authors of "Conquering Risk," an outstanding new book that embraces a rigorously scientific approach to betting sports, go out of their way several times to define their audience.



Here's a hint: They're not writing for novices.

Early on, they submit that their treatise is ideal for seasoned bettors who can already explain why Ohio State minus 45 points parlayed with over 48 in the same game is a profitable play.

Later, they present a case in which you take Chicago plus 3 points and an hour later the market is at Chicago plus 4. Regardless of the game's outcome, you made a bad bet. If you find that puzzling, they suggest you probably lack the basic analytical skills required to be a professional gambler.

Damn, I can already see I won't be able to follow this one, way too technical for me! That is some seriously advanced concepts there.....

[pigskingenius]

You should take a course on how to be a lines taker which will help you understand the math of betting each type of bets which will greatly improve your understanding of the game

[uva3021]

damn only 225 for COnquering Risks, that's a steal

Mathletics is a solid read, though his excel-obsession gets tiresome

[pats3peat]

damn only 225 for COnquering Risks, that's a steal

Mathletics is a solid read, though his excel-obsession gets tiresome

good review and everything, But the person who did it is an editor - still seems like a very honest review. Plus Justin7 is good, so im gonna order it for some POINTS baby. Though like many others said, I hope in the future we will be provided with a pdf! Thanks sbr

[Justin7]

good review and everything, But the person who did it is an editor - still seems like a very honest review. Plus Justin7 is good, so im gonna order it for some POINTS baby. Though like many others said, I hope in the future we will be provided with a pdf! Thanks sbr

Pats3,

One time offer. If you don't think it's the best book on stat-based handicapping you have ever read, I'll refund your points personally.

Amazon's Kindle platform sucks. I tried to use kindle, but it reformatted my book and looked like crap. There is a lot of formatting involved with the equations, tables and charts in the book, and it all goes to hell in Kindle. I'm still trying to work on this problem, but I won't publish on Kindle if the end product doesn't look at good as the book.

If you're curious, here's the table of contents. Ignore the formatting and page numbering here; it's about 280 pages. The book took more pages than a Word document using 1.5 spacing (I think the default is double spacing).

Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street

By

Elihu D. Feustel and George S. Howard

©2010

Table of Contents
Forward. 2
Introduction. 3
I.The Problem.. 7
II.Trading. 11
III.Risk Management36
IV.Knowing the Enemy. 41
V.The Fantasy World. 57
VI.Introduction to Black-Box Modeling. 72
VII.Handicapper Success Test82
VIII.NFL Point-Based Model90
IX.NCAA Football Yards-Per-Play Based Model105
X.WNBA Efficiency-Based Model113
XI.Baseball Runs-Scored Model131
XII.Prop Betting, Futures and Poisson Distributions. 149
XIII.Free Money. 160
XIV.Stock Betting. 184
XV.Stock Investing: A Second Look. 200
XVI.The Diversification Myth?. 205
XVII.MLB Conversions Analysis. 209
XVIII.NCAA Football Conversions Analysis. 218
Conclusion. 230
Appendix: Conversions Summary. 235

[Dark Horse]

Why is the book under Novelties? Does SBR think that it's a novelty if a member can read?

Ordered book yesterday. Thanks Justin.

[VBOMBER]

Ordered book yesterday. Thanks Justin.

Me too! Thanks Justin, looking forward to reading it!

[rise]

all your stuff has been great

[vanitas]

I tried to order the book, but it said I was "prohibited." I have plenty of points. Am I not allowed to purchase because my email on here is restricted (someone asked what the website for Tom Law was, and I posted it -- insta-ban, I had my email privileges taken away on SBR at the beginning of baseball season, and here we are).

[Pokerjoe]

Conquering Risk appears to not be published yet... so...how does anyone know that it's a good book?
I'd love to read another good book on sports betting but no two people will ever recommend the same book...it seems like they all have major flaws.

We can recommend the book before reading it because Justin7 has earned our respect before writing it.

[Thremp]

We can recommend the book before reading it because Justin7 has earned our respect before writing it.

Comical. Not only is this a logical fallacy. It shows a marked lack of judgment.

[durito]

I can't wait to use the model to beat NFL sides. I'll be retired in no time.

[vanitas]

Comical. Not only is this a logical fallacy. It shows a marked lack of judgment.

- it may be a fallacy, but i think you are overstating things re: judgment. justin7 has done an excellent job creating resources relevant to sports handicappers. it is entirely reasonable to believe and assert that based upon past performance, a book by justin7 would be of comparable quality.

[Justin7]

I can't wait to use the model to beat NFL sides. I'll be retired in no time.

None of the models will make you rich. All will (in my opinion) generate +EV plays. The NFL model generates the fewest units of expected profit of the 4. NFL also had by far the fewest number of good plays per year (which causes sample size issues when trying to predict future win rate). You'll have to look at the methodology yourself to decide if you think it's crap. If you pm me your email, I'll send you the NFL chapter.

[JohnGalt2341]

It's a pre-order at the SBR store. It should ship around August 14th.

I look forward to it. Is the Ship date still August 14th?

[Justin7]

I think it will ship to SBR on monday, then they will resend it shortly thereafter.

[Inspirited]

How can I get this book from SBR?

[chaka]

right now you can get if free for 260 sbr points -earned for logging in and posting

[Inspirited]

Cool, but where can I order it if I decide to once I reach 260sbr points? I only have 55 at the moment so it might take awhile if I decide to go that way.

[luigi]

Cool, but where can I order it if I decide to once I reach 260sbr points? I only have 55 at the moment so it might take awhile if I decide to go that way.

click on sbrstore (right up near your username when you login.

[Inspirited]

Oh, it's under novelties. I was wondering where in the world the books were.

[ztballer]

Boys, I just lost 1k in the Casino. Send me a copy of the book please for pity.

[BlindBeggar]

I look forward to getting that book.

[LP™]

I hope it's still available. Gonna try to use my points.