Staking and expected value

[steks62]

Just want to pick a few brains here. I'm now in a position where I'm getting very good at calculating specific %ages for golf - ROI this year is approximately 40% - admittedly this has been a very good year but I would expect this to average out to around 15% in the long term.

Now I want to take this to the next level and one thing I feel I lack right now is a really good staking plan. Now the Kelly criterion seems to be the most appropriate way of choosing my stake but this seems to stake far too highly (so far I've been working off max 5% of my bankroll on an even money bet of high value, down to around 2-3% for an even money bet of reasonably good value. Another drawback is I'm placing many bets simultaneously so my bank roll is constantly changing. Has anyone out there been using Kelly and if so, what do they think of it?

In terms of value, so far I have just been going off what I calculate the win %age to be versus the price offered. Would you recommend using the EV of a bet to decide a bet better on what stake to place?

Let me know your thoughts

Thanks in advance!

[Justin7]

If you are betting openers in Golf and are doing serious handicapping work, 15% long-run EV is certainly possible. Your current staking - 5% max bet is good. If you stick with that, you will eventually have problems in that the limits for openers are too small.

that is a good problem to have.

[steks62]

Yeh certainly a few of my accounts are already restricted but I think there'll always be ways to get round this.

What I am interested in though is whether my current method of betting max 5% then working down from there is the most profitable way to increase my bank roll or would you recommend giving Kelly a serious go or possibly half kelly?

[steks62]

Also, with EV where it equals (P[win] * amount to win) - (P[loss] * amount wagered). Let's say I calculate decimal odds on a player to win tournament outright is 15 and the offered price is 26. This would mean an EV of over 50% - (0.06*25)-(0.94*1). Have I made a stupid error here because the EV seems far too high when the percentage point difference between my price of 15 (6.67%) and their price of 26 (3.8 %) is only 2.87% (6.67-3.8).

[Justin7]

If your edge is greater than 5%, you are leaving money on the table. If you have been doing this less than 2 years, I would stick to a 5% max bet. It is too easy to overestimate your edge.

[steks62]

Ok assuming my prices are good, then what would you recommend. Full kelly?

[Justin7]

How long have you been a winning sports bettor?

[mtneer1212]

I have found if you find out where she works, it increases your chances of getting a date with her.


Oh wait, this thread is "staking".... I thought it said "stalking." Nevermind.

[Dark Horse]

The question is if you're using a method that is good for this season, or one that is good for all seasons.

Don't get too greedy too fast.

[steks62]

Should be good for all seasons. I should mention that I am an odds compiler in the industry, thus why i'm pretty confident of my percentages

[TomG]

Assuming your long-term golf ROI is indeed 15%... Your goal right now should be to grow your bankroll as fast as possible. Golf is a small, niche market with limited betting opportunities. You want to take advantage of your edge as much as possible. That means having the bankroll and outs to do so. Each wager you make for less than the maximum is money you are leaving on the table. Aggressively Kelly stake to grow your bankroll at the optimal rate. Alternatively, document your results and try to find financial backers. With your talent in a niche sport, you really should own this market.

[Dark Horse]

If you want to get limited and/or kicked out, do exactly that.

Camouflage.