[coolguy73739]

I would really appreciate if some good brain here can help with the FORMULA.
Been looking for it for a while but unable to find any resources.
Thanks..

[JacketFan81]

What exactly are you asking for here? This question is confusing. Are you looking for the PACE formula, or how to adjust the PACE formula based on two individual teams? Offensive and defensive efficiency don't really play a factor in PACE (I mean, yes they do, but I have no idea how anyone would account for that). Are you asking about conditional probability?

[coolguy73739]

Thanks..
I have the data but not sure how to arrive at it.
I will explain with example.
Lets take 3 top teams of NBA and their offensive and defensive ratings.
Phoenix 114.8/107.3
Boston 114.4/107.0
Utah 116.7/110.5

Data available for their PACE ADJUSTED offensive and defensive ratings as follows:
Phoenix 113.1/105.7
Boston 116.4/108.8
Utah 118.0/111.7.

Their Pace Factors are 99.7/96.6 and 97.1 respectively.
I cannot figure out how pace adjusted data has been derived at. Which formula? Would appreciate your kind insight on this. Thanks

[JacketFan81]

Thanks..
I have the data but not sure how to arrive at it.
I will explain with example.
Lets take 3 top teams of NBA and their offensive and defensive ratings.
Phoenix 114.8/107.3
Boston 114.4/107.0
Utah 116.7/110.5

Data available for their PACE ADJUSTED offensive and defensive ratings as follows:
Phoenix 113.1/105.7
Boston 116.4/108.8
Utah 118.0/111.7.

Their Pace Factors are 99.7/96.6 and 97.1 respectively.
I cannot figure out how pace adjusted data has been derived at. Which formula? Would appreciate your kind insight on this. Thanks

Their PACE adjustments are a bit rudimentary, but I suppose reasonably accurate, depending on the application.


Their formulas are: OFFEFF x (LEAGUE MEDIAN PACE / TEAM PACE) = ADJEFF

Same for DEFEFF. They could be using league mean pace too. Those numbers are both around 98.25, if I'm not mistaken. Admittedly, I almost never bet the NBA these days so maybe they're using something more complicated, but it works out that way.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks.. I will go backwards and calculate the same for other basketball leagues to confirm if it makes sense as you are right it's too rudimentary to have arrived at this.
The formula I have for offensive efficiency rating OER is
Points scored / (FGA + ((FTA*0.9)/2)+TO)

TO is Turnovers..
I hope you have the same formula for OER..Dean Oliver has a more complicated formula than this I guess.. Thanks for your help.. Appreciated.

[JacketFan81]

Thanks.. I will go backwards and calculate the same for other basketball leagues to confirm if it makes sense as you are right it's too rudimentary to have arrived at this.
The formula I have for offensive efficiency rating OER is
Points scored / (FGA + ((FTA*0.9)/2)+TO)

TO is Turnovers..
I hope you have the same formula for OER..Dean Oliver has a more complicated formula than this I guess.. Thanks for your help.. Appreciated.

Without saying too much, I use Bayes Theorem to compare both offensive and defensive efficiency of each team and the same to compare pace in a similar way in CBB. It has served me well for years.

The OER formula isn't adjusted for SoS in a formula like that. Normalizing the stats is important. But they adjusted the formula against PACE, while adjusting it for opponent makes a lot more sense to me.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks.. I will go backwards and calculate the same for other basketball leagues to confirm if it makes sense as you are right it's too rudimentary to have arrived at this.
The formula I have for offensive efficiency rating OER is
Points scored / (FGA + ((FTA*0.9)/2)+TO)

TO is Turnovers..
I hope you have the same formula for OER..Dean Oliver has a more complicated formula than this I guess.. Thanks for your help.. Appreciated.

I went backwards and checked for other basketball leagues and was astonished to know the formula for pace adjusted stat is not as simple as the formula you gave with league median pace. There's more to pace adjusted data which could include SoS, individual player's performance and more. I am back to square one I guess on this but will keep hunting for the right answer. Thanks

[JacketFan81]

I went backwards and checked for other basketball leagues and was astonished to know the formula for pace adjusted stat is not as simple as the formula you gave with league median pace. There's more to pace adjusted data which could include SoS, individual player's performance and more. I am back to square one I guess on this but will keep hunting for the right answer. Thanks

Interesting. I wonder if there's anywhere documented that might tell us what that formula is. I'd be curious to see the adjustment factors and how they're stated. Keep us posted!